Author Topic: Expectations for a 100 years time  (Read 19926 times)

Offline James Lowe1

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Expectations for a 100 years time
« on: 03/29/2006 02:56 am »
Personal point of interest here, but what new concepts do we think will be employeed in 100 years time?

Will we all be driving around in hover cars? Will we have moved to a sustainable fuel source. Will we have set up base on outposts past Mars?

Your thoughts?

Offline Tony T. Harris

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RE: Expectations for a 100 years time
« Reply #1 on: 03/29/2006 03:10 am »
Providing we haven't destroyed ourselves, I think the human lust for new exploration will eventually drive us to exploring the solar system at least by then. We need to look for alternative fuel sources and if that is added into the equation on exploitation of the moon and Mars, then I think that will also help the aims of the space program in 100 years time.
Former Saturn V propulsion systems lead engineer.

Offline vt_hokie

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RE: Expectations for a 100 years time
« Reply #2 on: 03/29/2006 05:13 am »
Hopefully by my next life we'll have extended human presence at least to Mars, if not beyond!  But just as importantly, I hope our species starts taking better care of this planet and starts acting more civilized.

Offline DavidB

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RE: Expectations for a 100 years time
« Reply #3 on: 03/29/2006 06:11 pm »
I HOPE we will have established a permanent outpost somewhere off Earth, ideally Mars; however, I don't believe that will happen. I suspect we will have made small advances in energy sources and propulsion, but nothing big enough to throw open the doors of a large-scale human migration.

In fact (not trying to be too negative), I have been expecting the worst for a few years now.
I enjoy reading about history and human interaction, so I don't think we can separate technological activities from human activities. In other words, we cannot expect works of genius from a society which seems to be populated more and more by educated barbarians. And western Europe and North America do, indeed, seem to be heading this way.

In addition, America (which is doing most of the exploration right now) is suffering from a trade deficit and a budget deficit, which I believe will create a HUGE problem in the near future. I wouldn't be surprised if the space budget was hacked to the bone soon, because peoples' priority will be simple survival, not advancement.

That's my two cents anyhow. Hope for the best; prepare for the worst.

Regards,


David

Offline publiusr

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RE: Expectations for a 100 years time
« Reply #4 on: 03/29/2006 07:37 pm »
Dateline 2106.

"With CEV canceled long ago we celebrate the Fifty-eleventh launch of a Delta II with yet another bomb disposal robot on Mars.

In this issue of Popular Science we have yet another article on flying cars--"maybe tomorrow."

Fusion power will be had 'in another 20 years.'

Meanwhile there is more alarm on Global Shrinking--the latest in a long line of doom and gloom scenarios.

George Neal Bush XXIV will run against Mustapha Hapsburg Clinton  III.

Nothing ever changes.

Offline Avron

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RE: Expectations for a 100 years time
« Reply #5 on: 03/30/2006 04:00 am »
Quote
publiusr - 29/3/2006  2:37 PM

Dateline 2106.

"With CEV canceled long ago we celebrate the Fifty-eleventh launch of a Delta II with yet another bomb disposal robot on Mars.

In this issue of Popular Science we have yet another article on flying cars--"maybe tomorrow."

Fusion power will be had 'in another 20 years.'

Meanwhile there is more alarm on Global Shrinking--the latest in a long line of doom and gloom scenarios.

George Neal Bush XXIV will run against Mustapha Hapsburg Clinton  III.

Nothing ever changes.

And we will still be waiting for STS RTF 3 (or 4)...

Offline publiusr

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RE: Expectations for a 100 years time
« Reply #6 on: 03/31/2006 07:17 pm »
You got it.

Offline British NASA

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RE: Expectations for a 100 years time
« Reply #7 on: 04/01/2006 07:54 am »
I would like us to have found a way to visit other stars, via wormholes or the likes.

Offline Peter NASA

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RE: Expectations for a 100 years time
« Reply #8 on: 04/01/2006 05:01 pm »
Quote
British NASA - 1/4/2006  1:54 AM

I would like us to have found a way to visit other stars, via wormholes or the likes.

This is why we can't (unless for fun) think this far ahead, as we have yet to send humans past out our moon at present.

Offline astrobrian

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RE: Expectations for a 100 years time
« Reply #9 on: 04/01/2006 05:13 pm »
100 years from now, they MIGHT have the ECO sensors fixed. or at least replaced :o

Offline Spacely

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RE: Expectations for a 100 years time
« Reply #10 on: 04/01/2006 11:04 pm »
Good thread topic.

I'll refrain from predicting advances on Earth because I believe it's far more difficult to predict where personal technology or politics will be in a few generation's time than it is to predict where we'll be in space.

I'll also refrain from predicting any large variables. That is to say: No nuclear war with China, no asteroid hits, no global plague, and no complete climate breakdown.

So, without further ado, my very conservative predictions.

By 2106 we will have...

A fourth generation CEV that's larger, can stay in space for years at a time, and runs on nuclear electric propulsion. It will also require nothing more than a booster to get out of Earth or Lunar, orbit. In short, it will be on the scale of the Shuttle, but able to actually go places.

Rockets from Earth will roughly resemble what we have now, but Earth-to-space transport will be dominated by private companies and be commonplace and environmentally sound. The fourth gen CEV will launch from atop a fourth generation CaLV.

We will have research stations on the moon.

We will have *private* but not government run space stations in Earth orbit.

We will have a handful of private-run moon colonies. They will be in constant financial trouble.

We will have landed on Mars half-a-dozen times, but the logistics and engineering of a permanent colony will escape us. It will remain too damn expensive.

Robots, however, will dominate the Martian surface. Private companies and the U.S. government will have fleets of nuclear rovers, drills, and telecom satellites orbiting the planet. Real-time super-HD-holographic-whatever footage will stream back to Earth and the Moon.

We will have explored the Neptune and Uranus systems in-depth with their own Cassini-style orbiters.

We will have sent multiple follow-up missions to the Kuiper Belt. Including a Pluto-Charon orbiter.

We will have landed, roved, and drilled on Europa. It will have been insanely expensive.

We will have done a sample return of Enceladus.

Sample returns from comets and asteroids will be commonplace.

Titan will have been explored by numerous rovers and aerobots, but a manned expedition will always remain "15 years off."

Venus will continue to be ignored.

Third and fourth generation terrestrial planet finders will provide us with maps of the continents on other worlds.

We will have sent an "interstellar probe" or two to explore the heliopause and Oort Cloud.

Just as we spend today lamenting the fact that humans don't leave LEO, people in 2106 will lament the fact that humans haven't traveled beyond the orbit of Mars.

Offline SRBseparama

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RE: Expectations for a 100 years time
« Reply #11 on: 04/02/2006 02:01 am »
Those are realistic views, but given we'll all be dead before then, I kinda hope for more...or is that totally unrealistic?

I would much prefer the above to have happened in 50 years time?

Offline MartianBase

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RE: Expectations for a 100 years time
« Reply #12 on: 04/02/2006 05:02 am »
I got this from an old roleplaying boardgame - some of it is kind of silly but some of it seems possible

Quote
21ST CENTURY

2000-2010:
China embarks on a manned space program, putting several yuhangyuan ("space navigators") into orbit and on the moon. The first human clone is born. The United States commits to a Mars mission.

2012:
North and South Korea set date for reunification.

2015:
Russia joins the manned Mars program. Antibiotic-resistant pneumonia pandemic kills 10 million worldwide. Revised Outer Space Treaty is drafted, making it easier for corporations or states to lay claim to extraterrestrial resources.

2016:
South African conglomerate Ithemba Biotechnologies distributes a cheap broad-spectrum AIDES vaccine in Africa. China and Taiwan negotiate date for peaceful reunification. China announces its own Mars program.

2018:
The Long March VI rocket lofts China's first space lab module into orbit. European Union increases fusion power budget. Biotech Euphrates is founded, with a then-radical commitment to human gengineering.

2020:
The genetic testing of unborn children and use of genetic engineering to "gene-fix" monogenetic hereditary defects is common in affluent nations. China lands robots on Mars and Phobos. U.S. and Russia establish a service station facility at the Earth-Luna L4 point.

2021:
Columbia Aerospace opens an equatorial launch facility in Quito, Ecudador. By 2100, it will be the Earth's busiest spaceport. European and Japanese space agencies are the first to use robot "cybershells" to build a distributed-array observatory at Tsiolkovsky Crater on Luna's farside. A small manned base soon follows. Mainland China and Taiwan are reunited.

2023:
French tissue engineers grow functional human hearts for transplant. Every organ in the body (except the brain) is now replaceable.

2024:
The U.S.-Russian Horus I manned Mars mission is launched. Sergey Zarubayev becomes dictator of Kazakstan. Thanks to advances medical technology, he will retain his death-grip on life and power for the rest of the 21st century.

2025:
China's Chaosheng manned Mars misson is launched, even as the U.S.-Russian Horus I mission ends in tragedy.

2026:
Chaosheng spacecraft arrives, and Wen-Xuan Liang becomes the first human to set foot on Mars. China establishes first permanent Mars colony.

2028:
Multiple follow-up expeditions to Mars. Industrial combines Vosper-Babbage and Cenargo Heavy Industries finance a series of manned and unmanned missions to near-Earth asteroids.

2033:
Biotech Euphrates markets gene-enhanced dogs and cats. First operational fusion reactor goes online in San Francisco. British Columbia and Alberta separate from Canada and form the Union of Alberta and British Columbia (ABC).

2034:
Australian Kyle Porters sets out the tenents of Information Socialism. He argues for a society in which patents and intellectual properties are free, but inventors and creators are subsidized by the state.

2035:
The first low-sapient AI is created, with near human intelligence. The South African Coalition (a loose economic alliance for sub-Saharan development) is formed. Austrailia, Korea, and Japan form the Pacific Rim Alliance (PRA). The Chinese space development corporation Xiao Chu is formed. Quebec and the Atlantic Provinces separate from what remains of Canada to join the European Union.

2038:
The Cenargo Corporation manned plasma sail spacecraft Phoenix makes its maiden flight to the asteroid Ceres, inaugurating the Second Age of Sail. Its crew establishes a manned outpost on Ceres, though the company abandons it within a year as uneconomical. Zarubayev regime begins a program aimed at eradicating the majority Kazak culture, language, and religion.

2039:
A commercial Helium-3 reactor goes online in Japan. The Ares Conspiracy begins the illicit terraforming of Mars. First quantum super-computers are built. A major application is the rapid solution of highly complex protein folding problems, a key to advanced biotechnology.

2040:
Biotech Euphrates and other firms begin offering human genetic upgrades on a custom basis; these are expensive and often not fully successful.

2041:
The Ares Conspiracy is discovered and their terraforming efforts are dubbed the Ares Plague. Faced with arrest or worse, its members and sympathizers steal a NASA deep space vessel and flee to the asteroid belt where they settle on Ceres, occupying the abandoned Cenargo mining base. It is renamed Silas Duncan Station. Montreal secedes from Quebec and becomes a free city.

2043:
Anglo-American expedition reaches Mercury; Elizabeth Daintith is the first human to set foot on it. Many corporation begin to mine Helium-3 from the Lunar regolith to support the growing number of fusion plants on Earth. First universal 3D printer created. Moderate Arab states form the Islamic Caliphate.

2048:
Anglo-German expedition reached Venus. The Duncanite exiles on Ceres begim a program to alter their descendants for long-term survival in microgravity. A multinational science expedition reaches Jupiter's moon, Europa. Ice-penetrating robots explore the subsurface ocean and discover primitive life.

2052:
The Cenargo Corporation builds the first fusion-powered spacecraft, ending the Second Age of Sail. Treaty of Jerusalem settles the outstanding disputes between Israel and its neighbors. Infosocialist party, inspired by the theories of Kyle Porters, forms in Thailand.

2058:
Dr. Arifa Aliah Ali  unveils the Grand Unified Theory that successfully reconciles gravity and quantum mechanics. Unable to prevent the Ares Plague from terraforming Mars, nations and corporations begin instead to accelerate the process. Fauxflesh, vat-grown meat, goes on sale.

2062:
Infosocialists win the election in Thailand, the first of several info- or nanosocialist parties to achieve power in the 2060s and 2070s. Freehaulers Guild formed.

2066:
Valles Marineris on Mars is flooded. Chinese cybershells explore Pluto. Biotech Euphrates builds first android with high-sapient AI. They are living beings functionally similar to humans, but asssembled using tissue engineering and biogenesis nanotechology, and educated using accelerated learning techniques. Zarubayev earns the nickname "Stalinashka" due to his bionic implants and ruthless oppression of dissent.

2070:
Xiao Chu and other Chinese firms complian that unlicensed clones of their androids and genetically enhanced animals are being pirated by Indonesian and Thai companies, and demand action.

2074:
Indonesia, Peru, Thailand, and Vietnam form the Transpacific Socialist Alliance (TSA) and release a statement of principles. Reference to open access to nanotechnology leads to them being dubbed nanosocialist. First Mars- and aquatic-adpated parahumans engineered by China and Australia respectively. Consumption of fauxflesh exceeds that of natural meat.

2077:
American expedition lands on Saturn's moon, Titan, where they establish the first permanent colony. Construction of the first space elevator begins on Mars.

2080:
Tranhumanist Kazuhiro Nishimori is the first healthy human to undergo destructive uploading. Genefixed people now represent a majority of Earth's population.

2084-2089:
The Pacific War. China launches a surprise attack against Thai bioweapons directorate facilities and satellites. The other TSA nations honor their mutual-defense treaty obligations, and fire cruise missiles at Chinese ports and naval vessels. Fierce fighting around the Pacific Rim follows. In deep space, TSA vessels launch multiple autonomous kill vehicles (AKVs) at Chinese targets. China destroys most of the TSA's orbital and surface space facilities, including their solar power satellites.

2089:
A royalist coup topples the hard-line nanosocialist government in Thailand, and the TSA agrees to a European Union-mediated peace treaty. Martian Triads begin manufacturing pleasure androids.

2090:
The Cenargo Corporation and Nanodynamics establish ice-mining bases on Titan and Callisto. Failed coup attempt against Zarubayev regime leads to a ruthless purge ("the Silence"). Many ,assacres are carried out by android soldiers. Xoxing (making multiple self-aware mind emulations of a person) is made illegal world-wide. Mars space elevator completed. Work begins on Earth's space elevator, based in Kenya.

2099:
Zarubayev dies and his regime disintegrates due to in-fighting. By year's end, Russian troops enter and secure the beleaguered nation.

Offline Jon_Jones

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RE: Expectations for a 100 years time
« Reply #13 on: 04/02/2006 06:09 am »
Here's my thought on the future: and since any and all projections or guesses about that future are false... it doesn't matter what I say... it will be and is wrong.

2010: the 127th or so shuttle launches and brings that chapter to a close.

2020: America makes it back to the moon and decides to leave 2-3 people on it like the first antartic base.
US and India are doing many joint ventures while ESA becomes the other big player and China come into its own

2030: China replaces the US as the single remaining Super Power after USA has a an even greater depression and brings britan down with it as well as causing india to go off on its own with others like france. USA essentially drops out of the space game for a while.

2040: USA becomes confused

2050: China and india confront each other and the US has no influence over the two anymore.

2060: ?
2070: ?
2080: USA returns to space race with vigor after a total remake of itself
2090: The west unites to hold its own on the global scene with china and india.
2100: Advances in physics and technology make the first international adventure to jupiter or saturn feasible and it is done in the next year. Earth scientists decide to colonize the moon because so much interesting science (astronomy) can be done there. we may even decide to put in a first feable Near earth asteroid defence system or mechanism that may or may not actually work better that observing and hoping that we see all the dangerous ones.

"ignorance + imagination = prophesy"

to try to alter this future, I'm hoping for a "Wisdom Revolution" to help us make the shift from the human history of early culture and early culture with technology  to something less frightening like a wise, globally conscious race with the beginnings of advanced technology--- the most important part of our evolution is the cultivation of wisdom
please quote me on that and look up the definitions of wisdom. don't stop with just one dictionary or ten. ask yourself what does the word mean. and if it describes some high level of human functioning... why is it not something we strive for?
Speed = Life iff Life = Speed

Offline To The Stars

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RE: Expectations for a 100 years time
« Reply #14 on: 04/02/2006 07:26 am »
Quote
MartianBase - 1/4/2006  11:02 PM

I got this from an old roleplaying boardgame - some of it is kind of silly but some of it seems possible

Quote
21ST CENTURY

2000-2010:
China embarks on a manned space program, putting several yuhangyuan ("space navigators") into orbit and on the moon. The first human clone is born. The United States commits to a Mars mission.

2012:
North and South Korea set date for reunification.

2015:
Russia joins the manned Mars program. Antibiotic-resistant pneumonia pandemic kills 10 million worldwide. Revised Outer Space Treaty is drafted, making it easier for corporations or states to lay claim to extraterrestrial resources.

2016:
South African conglomerate Ithemba Biotechnologies distributes a cheap broad-spectrum AIDES vaccine in Africa. China and Taiwan negotiate date for peaceful reunification. China announces its own Mars program.

2018:
The Long March VI rocket lofts China's first space lab module into orbit. European Union increases fusion power budget. Biotech Euphrates is founded, with a then-radical commitment to human gengineering.

2020:
The genetic testing of unborn children and use of genetic engineering to "gene-fix" monogenetic hereditary defects is common in affluent nations. China lands robots on Mars and Phobos. U.S. and Russia establish a service station facility at the Earth-Luna L4 point.

2021:
Columbia Aerospace opens an equatorial launch facility in Quito, Ecudador. By 2100, it will be the Earth's busiest spaceport. European and Japanese space agencies are the first to use robot "cybershells" to build a distributed-array observatory at Tsiolkovsky Crater on Luna's farside. A small manned base soon follows. Mainland China and Taiwan are reunited.

2023:
French tissue engineers grow functional human hearts for transplant. Every organ in the body (except the brain) is now replaceable.

2024:
The U.S.-Russian Horus I manned Mars mission is launched. Sergey Zarubayev becomes dictator of Kazakstan. Thanks to advances medical technology, he will retain his death-grip on life and power for the rest of the 21st century.

2025:
China's Chaosheng manned Mars misson is launched, even as the U.S.-Russian Horus I mission ends in tragedy.

2026:
Chaosheng spacecraft arrives, and Wen-Xuan Liang becomes the first human to set foot on Mars. China establishes first permanent Mars colony.

2028:
Multiple follow-up expeditions to Mars. Industrial combines Vosper-Babbage and Cenargo Heavy Industries finance a series of manned and unmanned missions to near-Earth asteroids.

2033:
Biotech Euphrates markets gene-enhanced dogs and cats. First operational fusion reactor goes online in San Francisco. British Columbia and Alberta separate from Canada and form the Union of Alberta and British Columbia (ABC).

2034:
Australian Kyle Porters sets out the tenents of Information Socialism. He argues for a society in which patents and intellectual properties are free, but inventors and creators are subsidized by the state.

2035:
The first low-sapient AI is created, with near human intelligence. The South African Coalition (a loose economic alliance for sub-Saharan development) is formed. Austrailia, Korea, and Japan form the Pacific Rim Alliance (PRA). The Chinese space development corporation Xiao Chu is formed. Quebec and the Atlantic Provinces separate from what remains of Canada to join the European Union.

2038:
The Cenargo Corporation manned plasma sail spacecraft Phoenix makes its maiden flight to the asteroid Ceres, inaugurating the Second Age of Sail. Its crew establishes a manned outpost on Ceres, though the company abandons it within a year as uneconomical. Zarubayev regime begins a program aimed at eradicating the majority Kazak culture, language, and religion.

2039:
A commercial Helium-3 reactor goes online in Japan. The Ares Conspiracy begins the illicit terraforming of Mars. First quantum super-computers are built. A major application is the rapid solution of highly complex protein folding problems, a key to advanced biotechnology.

2040:
Biotech Euphrates and other firms begin offering human genetic upgrades on a custom basis; these are expensive and often not fully successful.

2041:
The Ares Conspiracy is discovered and their terraforming efforts are dubbed the Ares Plague. Faced with arrest or worse, its members and sympathizers steal a NASA deep space vessel and flee to the asteroid belt where they settle on Ceres, occupying the abandoned Cenargo mining base. It is renamed Silas Duncan Station. Montreal secedes from Quebec and becomes a free city.

2043:
Anglo-American expedition reaches Mercury; Elizabeth Daintith is the first human to set foot on it. Many corporation begin to mine Helium-3 from the Lunar regolith to support the growing number of fusion plants on Earth. First universal 3D printer created. Moderate Arab states form the Islamic Caliphate.

2048:
Anglo-German expedition reached Venus. The Duncanite exiles on Ceres begim a program to alter their descendants for long-term survival in microgravity. A multinational science expedition reaches Jupiter's moon, Europa. Ice-penetrating robots explore the subsurface ocean and discover primitive life.

2052:
The Cenargo Corporation builds the first fusion-powered spacecraft, ending the Second Age of Sail. Treaty of Jerusalem settles the outstanding disputes between Israel and its neighbors. Infosocialist party, inspired by the theories of Kyle Porters, forms in Thailand.

2058:
Dr. Arifa Aliah Ali  unveils the Grand Unified Theory that successfully reconciles gravity and quantum mechanics. Unable to prevent the Ares Plague from terraforming Mars, nations and corporations begin instead to accelerate the process. Fauxflesh, vat-grown meat, goes on sale.

2062:
Infosocialists win the election in Thailand, the first of several info- or nanosocialist parties to achieve power in the 2060s and 2070s. Freehaulers Guild formed.

2066:
Valles Marineris on Mars is flooded. Chinese cybershells explore Pluto. Biotech Euphrates builds first android with high-sapient AI. They are living beings functionally similar to humans, but asssembled using tissue engineering and biogenesis nanotechology, and educated using accelerated learning techniques. Zarubayev earns the nickname "Stalinashka" due to his bionic implants and ruthless oppression of dissent.

2070:
Xiao Chu and other Chinese firms complian that unlicensed clones of their androids and genetically enhanced animals are being pirated by Indonesian and Thai companies, and demand action.

2074:
Indonesia, Peru, Thailand, and Vietnam form the Transpacific Socialist Alliance (TSA) and release a statement of principles. Reference to open access to nanotechnology leads to them being dubbed nanosocialist. First Mars- and aquatic-adpated parahumans engineered by China and Australia respectively. Consumption of fauxflesh exceeds that of natural meat.

2077:
American expedition lands on Saturn's moon, Titan, where they establish the first permanent colony. Construction of the first space elevator begins on Mars.

2080:
Tranhumanist Kazuhiro Nishimori is the first healthy human to undergo destructive uploading. Genefixed people now represent a majority of Earth's population.

2084-2089:
The Pacific War. China launches a surprise attack against Thai bioweapons directorate facilities and satellites. The other TSA nations honor their mutual-defense treaty obligations, and fire cruise missiles at Chinese ports and naval vessels. Fierce fighting around the Pacific Rim follows. In deep space, TSA vessels launch multiple autonomous kill vehicles (AKVs) at Chinese targets. China destroys most of the TSA's orbital and surface space facilities, including their solar power satellites.

2089:
A royalist coup topples the hard-line nanosocialist government in Thailand, and the TSA agrees to a European Union-mediated peace treaty. Martian Triads begin manufacturing pleasure androids.

2090:
The Cenargo Corporation and Nanodynamics establish ice-mining bases on Titan and Callisto. Failed coup attempt against Zarubayev regime leads to a ruthless purge ("the Silence"). Many ,assacres are carried out by android soldiers. Xoxing (making multiple self-aware mind emulations of a person) is made illegal world-wide. Mars space elevator completed. Work begins on Earth's space elevator, based in Kenya.

2099:
Zarubayev dies and his regime disintegrates due to in-fighting. By year's end, Russian troops enter and secure the beleaguered nation.

That is fantastic. Very cleverly thought out!

Offline Jamie Young

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RE: Expectations for a 100 years time
« Reply #15 on: 04/10/2006 06:05 am »
In one hundred years, computer games will have advanced to the level where we can do anything we dream off from the comfort of our own home. We will no longer have real friends.

Offline George CA

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RE: Expectations for a 100 years time
« Reply #16 on: 04/11/2006 07:20 pm »
Quote
Jamie Young - 10/4/2006  1:05 AM

In one hundred years, computer games will have advanced to the level where we can do anything we dream off from the comfort of our own home. We will no longer have real friends.

What a lovely thought ;)
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Offline modavis

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RE: Expectations for a 100 years time
« Reply #17 on: 04/15/2006 07:15 pm »
Quote
DavidB - 29/3/2006  12:11 PMI...America (which is doing most of the exploration right now) is suffering from a trade deficit and a budget deficit, which I believe will create a HUGE problem in the near future. I wouldn't be surprised if the space budget was hacked to the bone soon...

Afraid I agree with you. At the time Apollo spending peaked and headed down, I was in my teens and not paying much attention to fiscal policy. But looking back, I see that at the time the budgetary tap was closing (end of Saturn production, cancellation of Apollo 18-20, and of most Apollo applications follow-ons), we had:
- an ongoing war
- [then] record deficits
- new domestic spending  commitments (think Medicare drug plan)
- international doubts about the strength of the dollar (a "run" on gold in early 1968)

It all sounds all too familiar. So I'm not investing too much in debating the merits of VSE/ESAS -- because I can't convince myself that it (or a lot of other spending that will be seen as discretionary) will survive when the hangover arrives.

Offline spacefire

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RE: Expectations for a 100 years time
« Reply #18 on: 04/19/2006 06:29 pm »
I expect to have had the first FTL trip by that time.
Physics is advancing and we shouldn't be limited to concepts we know of already.
Immortality, mind-machine melt- i.e your self would live in a computer.
Think about it, if your brain is linked to a computer - neurons have been linked to chips already, it will start using it as if it were a part of your body. After a period of time, your awareness might be able to reside entirely in the computer.
btw I found this great site, I don't know how many of the things showed here will hit the shelves, but it's a great read:
www.gizmag.com

Offline Pete at Edwards

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RE: Expectations for a 100 years time
« Reply #19 on: 04/19/2006 09:39 pm »
FTL is a big one. I just don't know if they'll find a way around the obvious physics problem.

Offline edkyle99

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RE: Expectations for a 100 years time
« Reply #20 on: 04/19/2006 10:05 pm »
Consider the state of things 100 years ago.

http://invention.psychology.msstate.edu/i/Wrights/WrightUSPatent/WrightPatent.html

Since then, flight has advanced in all areas, but especially in propulsion.
Will someone invent the technological-leap equivalent of a turbo-jet engine for
space launchers within the next 100 years?  Will techniques have advanced
enough to allow single-stage reusable launchers that really work, opening
up spaceflight for commercial exploitation?  Will space have offered an energy
and/or pollution solution (i.e. solar power satellites)?  What about all of the
space junk?  Will old satellites (maybe a Surveyor or a Luna or an old Apollo
or LSAM module) be available on EBay?  Wait, why should I expect that EBay
would exist then?  Sears & Roebuck catalog was the big thing in 1906!

 - Ed Kyle

Offline SpaceCat

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RE: Expectations for a 100 years time
« Reply #21 on: 04/19/2006 11:15 pm »
I'm afraid age has taught me to be pessimistic-- it's the 'grumpy old man syndrome.'
I had great expectations for the past 50 years, and have seen very few pan out.  50 is only half of 100- really not a lot of time in the grand scheme of things.  
I would hope that in 100 years, we might be only half as mediocre as we now are...... but if the last 50 are any indication, I fear that in 100 we may end up being twice as average as we are now.

Offline realtime

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RE: Expectations for a 100 years time
« Reply #22 on: 04/20/2006 02:32 am »
I would hope that in 100 years, we might be only half as mediocre as we now are...... but if the last 50 are any indication, I fear that in 100 we may end up being twice as average as we are now.

That is HILARIOUS!   :)   A Zeno's paradox of paltry prospects ...

I took the liberty of adding it to the random quotes, as it bears a remarkable resemblance to something Mr. Clemens might utter after brandy and a good cigar.  I shall leave it there if you do not object.


Offline Avron

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RE: Expectations for a 100 years time
« Reply #23 on: 04/20/2006 03:35 am »
Well for the last 25 years of that 50 years of the past 100 years...

I know it sounds silly but the "greatest and most expensive, manned space vehicle" has been built with STRUCTURAL elements, elements that are subjected to dynamic loads, having been made out of .... Foam.. yes... its true, and guess what, the foam elements fail and have been doing so for the last 25 years, causing damage, some of it serious and even taking the lives of seven very brave people.

Now, three years later,(after risking more lives) with a whole ton of money, time, resources, put against the problem... very big surprise, the foam structural elements, that failed before, still fail... again, a whole lot of scratching of heads...


After all that effort and scratching of heads we still see foam used for aerodynamic ramps.. I know its sounds crazy.... but now the current thinking is to make the amount of foam smaller... hell, even reduce the loads (lower Q profile) on this most current of structural material...  maybe in 6 years, the dynamic loads on foam will be zero.. lets hope its not because of the lack of flights.

I am hoping that in less that 100 years time, that a new material can be found to build man-rated space vehicles.



Offline spacefire

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RE: Expectations for a 100 years time
« Reply #24 on: 04/20/2006 12:31 pm »
if sometime in the next hundred years we discover proof of other advanced civilizations, there will be great motivation for expanding our space capabilities...there will be more money...and advances in technology.

Offline wannamoonbase

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RE: Expectations for a 100 years time
« Reply #25 on: 04/28/2006 06:39 pm »
Quote
spacefire - 20/4/2006  7:31 AM

if sometime in the next hundred years we discover proof of other advanced civilizations, there will be great motivation for expanding our space capabilities...there will be more money...and advances in technology.

I expect that we will have proof of advanced civilizations in the next 50 years, hopefully a lot sooner.  I hope that it does have the effect of galvanizing societies worldwide into a great meaning and higher understanding.  But it may not.

I expect that in 100 years there will a small permanent settlement on Mars and maybe a few people working on the moon to do science and He3 mining (I know He3 seems it may never happen but we are talking 100 years)  

Mars is going to be far easier to settle and develop once on the surface than the moon.  So it will develop quicker there.  Perhaps transit times of 60-90 days to Mars

What we need for any of this too happen is a better world in General.  All countries need to be tolerant of all religions.  Allow all people (men and women) to have equal rights.  Respect differences and other peoples right to exist.  Then the ingredients for societies to work, rule of law, no tolerance for corruption, good quality education for all.  

If this happens then perhaps a truly international approach can take place.  Integrated space programs from all over the planet.  Imagine how much stuff could be hoisted to Mars if 150 countries could effectively pool resources (Applying lessons learned from the ISS)

Oh, on the fantasy list, I would like to see space elevators work, then the cost to orbit would mostly be the cost of electricity.  then the Moon, Mars and the rest of the solar system could really get explored.
Wildly optimistic prediction, Superheavy recovery on IFT-4 or IFT-5

Offline publiusr

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RE: Expectations for a 100 years time
« Reply #26 on: 04/28/2006 10:46 pm »
I'd settle for one HLLV program.

Offline Avron

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RE: Expectations for a 100 years time
« Reply #27 on: 04/29/2006 12:11 am »
Quote
publiusr - 28/4/2006  6:46 PM

I'd settle for one HLLV program.


Second you on that...

Offline Star-Drive

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RE: Expectations for a 100 years time
« Reply #28 on: 04/29/2006 04:25 am »
Folks:

Your imaginations need supercharging.  The rate of science and technology advancements is leaping ahead on all fronts on an exponentially decreasing time scale and NOT on a linear one.  If you want a sampler of what’s in store for all of us over the next thirty some years, try out the following KurzweilAI.net web page: http://www.kurzweilai.net/articles/art0134.html?printable=1, and I’ll quote Ray’s first paragraph in this 2001 article below:

“The Law of Accelerating Returns”
by Ray Kurzweil

“An analysis of the history of technology shows that technological change is exponential, contrary to the common-sense "intuitive linear" view.  So we won't experience 100 years of progress in the 21st century -- it will be more like 20,000 years of progress (at today's rate).  The "returns," such as chip speed and cost-effectiveness, also increase exponentially.  There's even exponential growth in the rate of exponential growth.  Within a few decades, machine intelligence will surpass human intelligence, leading to, The Singularity -- technological change so rapid and profound it represents a rupture in the fabric of human history.  The implications include the merger of biological and non-biological intelligence, immortal software-based humans, and ultra-high levels of intelligence that expand outward in the universe at the speed of light.”


But NASA Spaceflight is suppose to be about spaceflight and to show you what appears to be coming down the pike in the next five-to-ten years or so, I’ll show you some work by just one researcher by the name of Dr. James F. Woodward that has been going on now for the last twenty years that could blow the top off our current limited space transportation paradigm based on conventional rockets.  Some of these “gravinertial” ideas, work AND supporting experimental results on the existence and uses of transient mass fluctuations which are generated by energy variations in capacitor dielectrics can be found in the following web pages.  See http://www.woodwardeffect.org/ and http://chaos.fullerton.edu/Woodward.html for details.

So what do transient mass fluctuations in a local mass buy one?  It buys a small fixed amount of on-board propellant that doesn't have to be tossed overboard to generate continuous thrust, i.e., “recycled propellant propulsion" that is based on Einstein's 1915 General Relativity Theory (GRT)’s "gravinertial" based field interactions with the rest of the mass in the universe, via Wheeler/Feynman radiation reaction forces, or if you prefer, interactions with the primordial and universal gravinertial field that gives rise to inertia per Mach’s Principle.

In a nutshell, if you have a ball that can change its mass on demand via the already noted transient gravinertial field interactions, and you have two people throwing that ball back and forth to each other while anchored to the floor plates of a spaceship along its longitudinal axis, there would be NO net force on the ship during this game if the ball's mass remained constant during this conventional catch-ball exercise.  BUT, if we allow the ball's mass to change as it is being thrown between players, so it's less massive when thrown by person-A and then more massive when caught by person-B, there will be a net reaction force produced on the spaceship that's proportional to the ball's mass differential during each throwing cycle.  To produce a net time averaged thrust, all you have to do is to repeat this mass fluctuation process every time the ball is thrown between players.  If you want to reverse the direction of this thrust vector, just change the sign of the mass fluctuation as it is being thrown from person-A to person-B.  If you want to increase magnitude of the thrust, just increase how hard the ball is thrown and/or increase the number of times the ball is thrown each second.

Estimated NASA Technology Readiness Level (TRL) for this budding gravinertial propulsion technology is approximately 1-2.  Peer reviewed papers by Dr. Woodward and yours truly on the supporting GRT based theory and experimental verifications have been accepted, published and presented in publications like "Foundations of Physics" and the "American Institute of Physics" (AIP) and the STAIF Conferences which it is associated with.  The latest related "Flux Capacitor" and verification presentations were given at STAIF-2006 last February in Albuquerque, NM.

Oh yes one other thing.  With the ability to create large amplitude mass fluctuations in hand, creating traversable wormholes that will allow near instantaneous transport of our spaceship, and us, to distant parts of the universe becomes a real engineering possibility.  Star Gates anyone?  Or would you prefer warp-bubbles?  Heck, you can even have your hover cars!   All of these innovations and more becomes a definite possibility with the reality of on-demand mass fluctuations in hand.  And these mass fluctuation ideas with their supporting DATA provides another example of Ray Kurzweil’s coming information and technology revolution.  Are you ready to surf this ever growing wave of innovation?  Surf's UP!!
Star-Drive

Offline publiusr

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RE: Expectations for a 100 years time
« Reply #29 on: 04/29/2006 08:33 pm »
Quote
Star-Drive - 28/4/2006  11:25 PM

Folks:

Your imaginations need supercharging.  !

No--you just need to be more realistic. Rockets are here to stay.

Offline realtime

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RE: Expectations for a 100 years time
« Reply #30 on: 04/30/2006 04:58 am »
As long as we don't convert the inner planets into computronium I'm all for the Singularity.   ;)

Ahh, the bandwidth is good here...


Offline Star-Drive

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RE: Expectations for a 100 years time
« Reply #31 on: 04/30/2006 05:39 am »
If rockets are all that you can contemplate even if given 100 years of synertigistic world wide R&D efforts, I now know why the USA isn't going to be building a starship in a thousand years, let alone building one by the middle of the twenty third century!  A sad oultook really...
Star-Drive

Offline hop

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RE: Expectations for a 100 years time
« Reply #32 on: 04/30/2006 05:55 am »
It will be exactly as predicted here http://www.davidszondy.com/future/futurepast.htm ;)

Offline modavis

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RE: Expectations for a 100 years time
« Reply #33 on: 05/01/2006 12:55 pm »
Quote
hop - 30/4/2006  1:55 AMIt will be exactly as predicted here http://www.davidszondy.com/future/futurepast.htm ;)

That's been a favorite of mine since he opened it -- the love shows through the sardonic detachment, and vice versa.

Offline mong'

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RE: Expectations for a 100 years time
« Reply #34 on: 05/01/2006 01:08 pm »
yes Thanks for the link man, that's awesome !

albeit a little depressing when you see the reality...  :(

Offline David AF

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RE: Expectations for a 100 years time
« Reply #35 on: 05/01/2006 07:35 pm »
Miltary will change. We'll see the Air Force becoming fly by wire from remote stations. I think we'll soon hear about the last fighter pilot to be lost over the battleground soon.
F-22 Raptor instructor

Offline spacefire

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RE: Expectations for a 100 years time
« Reply #36 on: 05/04/2006 05:31 pm »
what bugs me is that we can use nuclear energy safely without contamination and yet we're not putting it to use to launch rockets and drive spaceships because of what 'might' happen if a launch fails.
like it could be worse than all the discarded stages of Russian rockets filled with toxic waste that keep falling over Kazakstan.
With nuclear rocket engines we could lift a super-redundant reusable SSTO and do away with expendable launchers forever.

Offline publiusr

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RE: Expectations for a 100 years time
« Reply #37 on: 05/04/2006 05:33 pm »
One concept I find interesting is the NSWR (Nuclear Salt Water Rocket)

This would be quite dirty, but would be a smoother ride than Orion with 1g thrust for hours:

http://www.projectrho.com/rocket/rocket3c.html
http://www.projectrho.com/rocket/rocket3q.html
http://www.npl.washington.edu/av/altvw56.html

An NSWR would need a very sturdy nozzle, and you would get high thrust and high Specific Impulse both!

It could be a massive, simply made craft, and I think would be a perfect payload for Sea Dragon. Sea Dragon requires a lot of water to be broken down for its conventional propellant, and the NSWR also needs water (perhaps urea--which was opaque enough for Orion usage). So the large rocket would just need to be towed out to sea with kerosene for the Sea Dragon first stage, and the salt in the payload.

Instant starship--just add water.

Offline Jim

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RE: Expectations for a 100 years time
« Reply #38 on: 05/04/2006 05:51 pm »
Quote
spacefire - 4/5/2006  1:31 PMwhat bugs me is that we can use nuclear energy safely without contamination and yet we're not putting it to use to launch rockets and drive spaceships because of what 'might' happen if a launch fails.like it could be worse than all the discarded stages of Russian rockets filled with toxic waste that keep falling over Kazakstan.With nuclear rocket engines we could lift a super-redundant reusable SSTO and do away with expendable launchers forever.

1.  The russian cans change their propellants or clean up the areas.  But they choose not to.
2.  Nuclear engines are for upperstages.  they have low thrust.  Can't be use on lower stages
3.   Exhaust is radioactive
4.  The success rate for LV's, any type, is no better than  96%

"Super redundancy" would eliminate all problems because:
1. It will make the vehicle too heavy
2.  SSTO is very sensitive to weight.  Extra weight reduces payload one to one.
3.  Launch to orbit is all about controlling a lot of energy.  There are risks associated with this.


Offline spacefire

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RE: Expectations for a 100 years time
« Reply #39 on: 05/05/2006 01:26 pm »
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NERVA
http://www.boeing.com/defense-space/space/propul/SSME.html

All I have to compare is the full Nerva upper stage to the SSME itself. I think the nuclear engines, when factoring fuel -and oxydizer weight for a chemical too, would have a higher thrust/weight ratio.
Indeed the thrust is lower but the ISP is much higher, of course this upper stage is optimized for vacuum. With a nozzle compromising for lower altitudes, or an aerospike nozzle, it could beat the SSME in terms of overall performance easily.

Offline ADC9

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RE: Expectations for a 100 years time
« Reply #40 on: 05/05/2006 04:37 pm »
In 100 years will we have the communications and satellites to know if we are alone in the universe or not?

Offline publiusr

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RE: Expectations for a 100 years time
« Reply #41 on: 05/05/2006 05:21 pm »
I don't see much changing. In 100 year we probably won't have a space program--because there will be some massive disaster or two that will cause NASA to once again be a whipping boy in DC.

Offline Jim

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RE: Expectations for a 100 years time
« Reply #42 on: 05/05/2006 05:26 pm »
Quote
spacefire - 5/5/2006  9:26 AMhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NERVAhttp://www.boeing.com/defense-space/space/propul/SSME.htmlAll I have to compare is the full Nerva upper stage to the SSME itself. I think the nuclear engines, when factoring fuel -and oxydizer weight for a chemical too, would have a higher thrust/weight ratio.Indeed the thrust is lower but the ISP is much higher, of course this upper stage is optimized for vacuum. With a nozzle compromising for lower altitudes, or an aerospike nozzle, it could beat the SSME in terms of overall performance easily.

Nuclear do not have high thrust.

Offline spacefire

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RE: Expectations for a 100 years time
« Reply #43 on: 05/05/2006 08:57 pm »
then build a bigger nuclear engine :)
thrust depends on exhaust gas velocity-which is higher for nukes- and ejected mass
if you increase that mass you get more thrust.

Offline spacefire

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RE: Expectations for a 100 years time
« Reply #44 on: 05/05/2006 09:00 pm »
"3.   Exhaust is radioactive"


not for all types of nuclear rocket engines.

Offline James Lowe1

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RE: Expectations for a 100 years time
« Reply #45 on: 05/06/2006 03:21 am »

Offline spacefire

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RE: Expectations for a 100 years time
« Reply #46 on: 05/07/2006 07:17 pm »
existing nuclear riocket engines might ahve low thrust. but if we invest more in this technology and perfect the designs, we will squeeze mroe and more performance.
Nuclear technology has promise. Chemical rockets have reached their limit.

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RE: Expectations for a 100 years time
« Reply #47 on: 05/07/2006 08:32 pm »
Quote
spacefire - 7/5/2006  3:17 PMexisting nuclear riocket engines might ahve low thrust. but if we invest more in this technology and perfect the designs, we will squeeze mroe and more performance.Nuclear technology has promise. Chemical rockets have reached their limit.
No nukes  for earth launch, only on orbit..  Their benefit is ISP, not thrust

Offline Star-Drive

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RE: Expectations for a 100 years time
« Reply #48 on: 05/12/2006 04:12 am »
In reference to nuclear thermal rockets (NTR) not being good for thrust, just Isp, I have to point out the USAF Timberwind work in the late 1980s that used particle bed fission reactors that obtained projected full scale thrust to weight (T/W) ratios of 25 to 1 or better and these results were backed with ground component testing.  And then you add LOX agmentation as an afterburner to the hydrogen flow in the nozzle downstream of the throat and the MSFC studies AND TESTS have shown that SEA LEVEL T/W ratios of 75-to-1 are obtainable as well.  Last time I looked, the SSME's T/W of 73-to-1 in vacuum doesn't give it any advantage in power over the Timnberwind/LOX Augmented NTR approach and the SSME's Isp is nowhere close to the Timberwind's 950 to 1,000 seconds.  What held back these particle bed NTR designs was NOT their performance, it was the political will to build anything with the word NUCLEAR attached. 
Star-Drive

Offline aftercolumbia

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RE: Expectations for a 100 years time
« Reply #49 on: 06/03/2006 04:24 am »
ignorance plus imagination equals, uh...maybe Dungeons and Dragons, or Tolkien, or uh...the Da Vinci Code?

In an "alternate space race" exercise of mine (which start's overhauling the space race in 1952...includes a belated entry into service of the C102 Jetliner and lacks the cancellation of the CF-105 Arrow, the two great Avro Aircraft that flew, and flew well, but never made it past the prototype stage because of political factors that wouldn't allow my alternate space race to take place...so I had to keep them for plausibility.)

A fully reusable Sanger II type two stage reusable called Bluestar enters service in 1990, promptly destroying the expendable market as it becomes COTS equipment, flies out of many international airports and spaceports and does hundreds of launches per year starting from $2 million per for an 8000kg payload.  A common low energy mission is the launching of 15 (half a plane of) phone satellites in a constellation of 720 satellites.  This system means that the cellular phone never reaches the status it did in reality.  The collision risk of competing systems force this one to be regulated and shared...one of this alternate space race's several evils.

The heavy GEO Bluestar class mission looks a bit like this...there is an empty tug standing by at a small space station, and the launch campaign begins rather boringly by a Bluestar "tanker" coming up to fill it.  4 such ascents are needed to fill the tug.  A fifth Bluestar comes up with the satellite, and a sixth comes up with the satellite's propellants and an expendable apoapsis kick stage.  The spacecraft is fully deployed and checked out at the space station before the tug, apoapsis stage and spacecraft set out.  The tug also has solar wings, so this train doesn't look at all like what we would call a "booster" today.  Because of the deployments, the tug is limited to a 1m/s^2 burnout accelleration, and so has to split its periapsis kick into five maneuvers, taking a good day and a half to complete its mission.  Similarly, the apoapsis maneuver lasts a good hour, probably with some splits related to longitude phasing.  After the monster satellite is separated the apoapsis stage does the usual CCAM and dies.  The tug's fate is more pleasant...it aerobrakes, MGS-style back to the space station arriving back several months (and probably a full rotation of nodal precession) later to do it all over again.  The satellite's BOL mass is 11000kg and the total cost of the mission is in the $25 mln. ballpark.  Oh yeah, in this alternate space race, this is what would be happening _right_now_.

The 40,000kg edition of Bluestar, the Greystar entered orbital service in 2006...it turned out to be a mistake because it was too large.  Designed for launching modular space stations, it was quickly laid to rest by an inflatable space station modules, a 20,000kg private venture booster of the same patern (Eclistar) designed specifically to launch them...and finally by a 350 tonne class monster designed to launch interplanetary cruisers and space hotels.

Okay...I've only mapped it out to 2096 and the end of World War IV.  World War IV itself is rather interesting...it's an invasion from Mars!  In World War III, the earth-based corporations and their supporting governments take over the world, and the established Mars colony is against this.  There is a period of about 15 years prior to and during WWIII where the main spaceflight activity is the evacuation of political refugees and hopeful colonists to Mars and beyond, until finally, the nations that the space colonies were friendly with collapse and the war is lost.  After a period of interplanetary skirmishes including a nuclear attack on Mars (which was responded to in kind; the earth governments decided to trust the honor of the spacefarers and not use nukes against them in the hopes that no more would be launched against earth...and that's what happened.)

Two months after an optimum arrival window from Mars sometime around 2089, the spacefarers assault arrives.  This was preceeded by a propaganda campaign warning the people (and obviously containing many hidden messages for the resistance organizations)...then this arrival window comes...and goes...no invasion.  A couple months later when the defenders start laughing, it arrives from well south of the ecliptic and lands over 200,000 people and their war-fighting equipment in just a couple of hours, concentrated on the African Gold Coast area, Atlas mountain range, Sahara Desert and the neighbouring Atlantic.  A couple of subs are dropped in every ocean though.  There are three really funky concepts for this attack:

- Direct entry submarine:  The hydrodynamic shape of the sub (which resembles a stingray that has had waaayyy too much to eat, forming an extra thick semi-delta planform) allows a decent L/D entry, making it hard to predict where the sub is intended to go from the initial ballistic contacts.  The submarine opens a big, but undersized (for a 2400 tonne vehicle) parachute to put its nose straight down into the water.  The parachute draws out the tail (towed array sonar) before being detached, while the sub pulls out and levels off at 300m, well below the thermocline.  Anything that can hear it under the water has no idea what it is, and as the submarine is fully operational less than 90 seconds after it hits the water, the first responders are rushing into a trap...

- 4.5m mechnanical soldier suit:  This number I picked because 1.7m/0.38 is about 4.5m...what this means is that the scaled gravity to these suits is identical to what a normal person would experience on Mars.  Therefore, someone used to moving around on Mars in a normal spacesuit would experience similar fall timings and scaled gravitational accellerations on earth when in this suit.  Zinging by Earth were the torus training ships the first wave used to keep in shape prior to landing.  These suits came in on rather simplistic pods...and being "only" a couple tonnes each, and one person each, were largely ballistic.  The resulting rain of thousands of these troopers made the sky (over the empty southern Atlantic so there were few eyes to see) shine...and with about ten times the entering mass of an all out nuclear war as we would know it, it really had the radar watchers freaking right out (they thought "glide bombs for Europe", which just enough were that it screwed up their initial estimates of how many troops landed in Africa.)  They land under low opening (~3000m) parachutes and terminal impact softened by rockets.  Once on the ground, they were ready for action in seconds.

- The 10,000 tonne super base.  The intel leaked to the defenders indicated that the invaders had one...but they had three.  Analysts on earth said they couldn't survive entry because it is impossible to get a low enough drag loading when you're that big.  That problem was solved by really big post-inflation rigidized ballutes.  Radar stealth on the main bodies meant these suckers just winked onto the radars a couple minutes before entry and then were lost within seconds because early warning radars had been cleaned out...these bases were arriving on the invasion's second day.  Two landed in the Atlantic, and one in the Sahara.  After the ballutes, they were landed under power.  They didn't have a whole lot of people on them, but they formed the initial base and staying power for the beachhead...or whatever you'd call it under these circumstances.

Offline aftercolumbia

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RE: Expectations for a 100 years time
« Reply #50 on: 06/09/2006 04:29 am »
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Star-Drive - 11/5/2006  9:59 PM

In reference to nuclear thermal rockets (NTR) not being good for thrust, just Isp, I have to point out the USAF Timberwind work in the late 1980s that used particle bed fission reactors that obtained projected full scale thrust to weight (T/W) ratios of 25 to 1 or better and these results were backed with ground component testing.  And then you add LOX agmentation as an afterburner to the hydrogen flow in the nozzle downstream of the throat and the MSFC studies AND TESTS have shown that SEA LEVEL T/W ratios of 75-to-1 are obtainable as well.  Last time I looked, the SSME's T/W of 73-to-1 in vacuum doesn't give it any advantage in power over the Timnberwind/LOX Augmented NTR approach and the SSME's Isp is nowhere close to the Timberwind's 950 to 1,000 seconds.  What held back these particle bed NTR designs was NOT their performance, it was the political will to build anything with the word NUCLEAR attached. 

I think the LOX would drop the Isp somewhat, but probly still in the 600+ second range.

Offline aftercolumbia

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RE: Expectations for a 100 years time
« Reply #51 on: 06/09/2006 04:46 am »
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Star-Drive - 28/4/2006  10:12 PM

Within a few decades, machine intelligence will surpass human intelligence, leading to, The Singularity -- technological change so rapid and profound it represents a rupture in the fabric of human history.

I think I'm going to bang my head on the keyboard...

djhk...uroe;i...uowsjkdah...wou;alis...8396-12...wy9p8

...was that article supposed to be serious?

Actually the closest thing we've had so far to a "rupture in the fabric of human history" is spoken of in almost every culture and faith...and the most detailed source, once analysed, puts it on 12 April 2442 BC...the Great Flood and Noah's Ark.  Talk about a piece of handywork...dude builds a 15,000 tonne ship in his backyard over the course of five hundred years out of a high quality wood that apparently doesn't exist any more.  Oh, yeah, and the LORD not only told him to do it, but gave him the plans too.

The craziest thing is that the K-T to present geological record (which is often purported to be 65 million years) is more consistent with this event than it is with the theory of evolution (i.e. a blue whale upended with several million years between its tail and its head...species of fish and reptile thought extinct for millions of years being caught alive...actual fossil intermediate forms and variations more consistent with a breed single species (i.e. canis domesticus is everything from Teacup Poodles to German Shepherds...if found as fossils as we have the dinosaurs, we would never guess those two breeds would belong to the same species) than with actual species crossing evolution.)

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