Poll

What do you think will be the decision on Shuttle Extension?

No, end in 2010
10 (5.8%)
Yes, but only to 2011
77 (45%)
Yes, to 2012
47 (27.5%)
Yes, to beyond 2012 (2014/15)
30 (17.5%)
Don't know
7 (4.1%)

Total Members Voted: 171

Author Topic: Poll: Augustine Fallout - Poll 2 - Will the Shuttle Program be extended?  (Read 16225 times)

Offline Chris Bergin

I don't think it's fair - or relevant to this thread (we have an Ares poll) - to even think about comparing Ares to X-33. The latter had massive showstopping engineering problems, as opposed to challenges.

Offline EE Scott

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I find myself wondering if the current Administration wants to retire STS as soon as possible, and is doing so by intentionally putting off an official decision until it is too late to do anything but retire STS as soon as the manifest is cleared.  Either that is the case, or the current Administration is simply massively incompetent.  Sure there are lots of things on the President's plate, but even though NASA is a mess right now, it wouldn't take that much time for decisions to be made and implemented.  So I must assume that the decision has already been made, but since it will be an unpopular one, it is not being announced until it becomes inevitable.
« Last Edit: 11/10/2009 11:01 AM by EE Scott »
Scott

Offline Ben the Space Brit

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I think that there will be an extension to beyond 2012 simply because that is the minimum-inertial difference action.  It effectively kicks the can down the road to the next presidential administration and thus avoids all the politicking and unpleasent assocation with decisions that are not automatically popular.
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Offline SimonFD

I find myself wondering if the current Administration wants to retire STS as soon as possible, and is doing so by intentionally putting off an official decision until it is too late to do anything but retire STS as soon as the manifest is cleared.  Either that is the case, or the current Administration is simply massively incompetent.  Sure there are lots of things on the President's plate, but even though NASA is a mess right now, it wouldn't take that much time for decisions to be made and implemented.  So I must assume that the decision has already been made, but since it will be an unpopular one, it is not being announced until it becomes inevitable.

I voted for 2011 purely because of schedule slippage. The apparent lack of urgency in the process given the ongoing job reductions points to a "death by neglect" of the shuttle programme. Sad and gutless.
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Father Jack: "FECK OFF, CUP!"

Offline EE Scott

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..snip..

The apparent lack of urgency in the process given the ongoing job reductions points to a "death by neglect" of the shuttle programme. Sad and gutless.

Very well put.   
« Last Edit: 11/10/2009 02:42 PM by EE Scott »
Scott

Offline Analyst

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..snip..

The apparent lack of urgency in the process given the ongoing job reductions points to a "death by neglect" of the shuttle programme. Sad and gutless.

Very well put.   

Wouldn't have been any different with the last administration, the last Congress, the last NASA administrator ...

Analyst

Offline William Barton

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I think it's going to slip into 2011, willy-nilly, due to scheduling delays. And then I think it's going to be extended into 2012 due to political infighting about whether or not to continue PoR vs. doing something (if anything) else. By then, the presidential election will be in full uproar, and whether this becomes a campaign issue or not depends on almost everything else. If it does, then depending on who takes the oath of office in January 2013, we could see anything from "Moon by 2020 at all costs" to "we'll just buy ISS rides with [whoever] until 2020" (amounting to a de facto cancellation of USG HSF at least until 2016). And if it doesn't, then we'll flog along just as we are now, until "things fall apart."

Offline William Barton

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..snip..

The apparent lack of urgency in the process given the ongoing job reductions points to a "death by neglect" of the shuttle programme. Sad and gutless.

Very well put.   

Wouldn't have been any different with the last administration, the last Congress, the last NASA administrator ...

Analyst

Or the one before that, or the one before that, or the one...

Offline robertross

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I think it's going to slip into 2011, willy-nilly, due to scheduling delays. And then I think it's going to be extended into 2012 due to political infighting about whether or not to continue PoR vs. doing something (if anything) else. By then, the presidential election will be in full uproar, and whether this becomes a campaign issue or not depends on almost everything else. If it does, then depending on who takes the oath of office in January 2013, we could see anything from "Moon by 2020 at all costs" to "we'll just buy ISS rides with [whoever] until 2020" (amounting to a de facto cancellation of USG HSF at least until 2016). And if it doesn't, then we'll flog along just as we are now, until "things fall apart."

Possible, though I think things will fall apart for the SSP long before 2013.
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Offline Namechange User

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I think it's going to slip into 2011, willy-nilly, due to scheduling delays. And then I think it's going to be extended into 2012 due to political infighting about whether or not to continue PoR vs. doing something (if anything) else. By then, the presidential election will be in full uproar, and whether this becomes a campaign issue or not depends on almost everything else. If it does, then depending on who takes the oath of office in January 2013, we could see anything from "Moon by 2020 at all costs" to "we'll just buy ISS rides with [whoever] until 2020" (amounting to a de facto cancellation of USG HSF at least until 2016). And if it doesn't, then we'll flog along just as we are now, until "things fall apart."

Possible, though I think things will fall apart for the SSP long before 2013.

Interesting.  How so?
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Offline robertross

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I think it's going to slip into 2011, willy-nilly, due to scheduling delays. And then I think it's going to be extended into 2012 due to political infighting about whether or not to continue PoR vs. doing something (if anything) else. By then, the presidential election will be in full uproar, and whether this becomes a campaign issue or not depends on almost everything else. If it does, then depending on who takes the oath of office in January 2013, we could see anything from "Moon by 2020 at all costs" to "we'll just buy ISS rides with [whoever] until 2020" (amounting to a de facto cancellation of USG HSF at least until 2016). And if it doesn't, then we'll flog along just as we are now, until "things fall apart."

Possible, though I think things will fall apart for the SSP long before 2013.

Interesting.  How so?

Certification, skills...
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Offline Analyst

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Certification, like man-rating, is in the eye of the beholder.

Infrastructure and skills yes, but (re)certification no.

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Offline William Barton

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I think it's going to slip into 2011, willy-nilly, due to scheduling delays. And then I think it's going to be extended into 2012 due to political infighting about whether or not to continue PoR vs. doing something (if anything) else. By then, the presidential election will be in full uproar, and whether this becomes a campaign issue or not depends on almost everything else. If it does, then depending on who takes the oath of office in January 2013, we could see anything from "Moon by 2020 at all costs" to "we'll just buy ISS rides with [whoever] until 2020" (amounting to a de facto cancellation of USG HSF at least until 2016). And if it doesn't, then we'll flog along just as we are now, until "things fall apart."

Possible, though I think things will fall apart for the SSP long before 2013.

Interesting.  How so?

How long before might also be a germaine question. The decision to extend STS beyond 2012 would have to be taken early on in 2012, at the very latest. If the space program is going to be a campaign issue, it will probably bubble to the surface right around that time, and the proximate cause could very well be a legislative debate about that very issue. A decision *not* to extend STS to 2012 no later than early 2011 would mean the gap would be in place, which might or might not be a campaign issue (out of sight, out of mind can come into play*). In practical terms, any earlier than that counts as a vote that STS will end in 2010.

* There's an old poem called "Unified Field Theory" about what happens when you stop doing something:

http://www.slac.stanford.edu/pubs/beamline/28/3/28-3-joseph.pdf
« Last Edit: 11/10/2009 04:43 PM by William Barton »

Offline Namechange User

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I think it's going to slip into 2011, willy-nilly, due to scheduling delays. And then I think it's going to be extended into 2012 due to political infighting about whether or not to continue PoR vs. doing something (if anything) else. By then, the presidential election will be in full uproar, and whether this becomes a campaign issue or not depends on almost everything else. If it does, then depending on who takes the oath of office in January 2013, we could see anything from "Moon by 2020 at all costs" to "we'll just buy ISS rides with [whoever] until 2020" (amounting to a de facto cancellation of USG HSF at least until 2016). And if it doesn't, then we'll flog along just as we are now, until "things fall apart."

Possible, though I think things will fall apart for the SSP long before 2013.

Interesting.  How so?

Certification, skills...

Certification of what? 

As for skills, there are plans in place.  How effective they will be...well we'll know shortly but that is a factor whenever any program ends.  If shuttle extends it will not be as much a concern until we get close to fly-out again. 
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Offline Chris Bergin

Speaking of certification - whatever that may be - these MEI related evaluation on Atlantis' stinger (and indeed a lot of their structure) shows the orbiters are likely to be more "sound" than maybe the likes of the ASAP had assumed. It would appear a lot of the models for structure are old, and once refined the numbers improve.

i'm struggling to think what hardware on the orbiter might have a life extension issue. The COPVs on Atlantis are ok now too, if I recall correctly.

Just came to mind when that certification reference was mentioned.

Offline marshallsplace

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Voted 2011 but want 2012.  There are more missions that would be benificial for the ISS.

Offline robertross

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Certification of what? 


Well for starters,
1. TPS tiles (production line & supplier cancelled, recent)
2. Tires (known issue for a while)
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Offline Namechange User

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Certification of what? 


Well for starters,
1. TPS tiles (production line & supplier cancelled, recent)
2. Tires (known issue for a while)


That is not certification.  That is logistics supply chain, all of which are recoverable.  I have no idea what you mean by tires.
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Offline Namechange User

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Speaking of certification - whatever that may be - these MEI related evaluation on Atlantis' stinger (and indeed a lot of their structure) shows the orbiters are likely to be more "sound" than maybe the likes of the ASAP had assumed. It would appear a lot of the models for structure are old, and once refined the numbers improve.

i'm struggling to think what hardware on the orbiter might have a life extension issue. The COPVs on Atlantis are ok now too, if I recall correctly.

Just came to mind when that certification reference was mentioned.

The structure is quite sound, even with the work that has been going on with the MEI environment.

For some perspective, Integration recently informed Orbiter of a "new" environment (from a mod/upgrade to the SSME's that occurred in the mid 90's) that translates to a higher accoustical vibration for the aft end of the orbiter.  Doing what is done everyday, many of the areas of concern were able to be quickly addressed.  Some areas such as the pod stinger, required a bit more work.  Through analysis and test, confidence is high that margins are well above where they need to be from a structural loads perspective and the updated MEI environment.  There is still some further work to be done but it is becoming a good news story.
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Offline robertross

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Certification of what? 


Well for starters,
1. TPS tiles (production line & supplier cancelled, recent)
2. Tires (known issue for a while)


That is not certification.  That is logistics supply chain, all of which are recoverable.  I have no idea what you mean by tires.

here:
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=16002.msg371314#msg371314

Well, I said 'fall apart'. That  is not to say it couldn't be put back together, far from it, but the time & expense to do that would be questionable.
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