Author Topic: Blue Origin Update and Discussion Thread  (Read 650664 times)

Online FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: Blue Origin Update and Discussion Thread
« Reply #1960 on: 03/15/2017 06:49 AM »
The concern on the tourism front might be - does suborbital not develop because it gets undercut by orbital? Orbital undercut by lunar? That perhaps some of these businesses don't go to fruition but instead get cannibalized by others.

No I don't think so. Currently there are two orders of magnitude difference in price between suborbital and orbital and likely another order of magnitude again for lunar. Prices may drop but I expect order of magnitude differences to remain for many years to come. So they are very different market segments.

Online FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: Blue Origin Update and Discussion Thread
« Reply #1961 on: 03/15/2017 12:56 PM »
Blue Origin aiming for first people flights within a year:

http://www.space.com/36074-blue-origin-crewed-flights-next-year.html

Quote
We're trying to get to our first human flights within the next year. That's a laser focus for the team right now

Offline rsdavis9

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Re: Blue Origin Update and Discussion Thread
« Reply #1962 on: 03/15/2017 03:19 PM »
I tend to agree with the above post that they do have a narrowing window for suborbital tourist hops. If NA or ITS with full recovery get off the ground orbital flight is going to get cheap fast. So what is that 4-8 years?
I am right in remembering NG is only first stage reuse?
bob

Offline Lars-J

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Re: Blue Origin Update and Discussion Thread
« Reply #1963 on: 03/15/2017 03:29 PM »
Blue Origin aiming for first people flights within a year:

http://www.space.com/36074-blue-origin-crewed-flights-next-year.html

Quote
We're trying to get to our first human flights within the next year. That's a laser focus for the team right now

Then we aren't they flying NS more? Surely they need to build up a pretty decent flight history before they start selling tickets?

Offline launchwatcher

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Re: Blue Origin Update and Discussion Thread
« Reply #1964 on: 03/15/2017 03:37 PM »
Offshore oil production platforms are assembled in two major components. Once the jacket is in position, a crane is used to put the deck in place. These things are far more massive than an empty first stage.

The larger the ship, the more stable it would be. However, if you have to wait around for calm seas, it would probably be better just to use one ship for landing and transporting back to port.
There are (human-rated!) actively stabilized platforms available (developed for North Sea offshore oil/gas/wind installations) that can compensate for ship-to-ship relative motion.   



There are bigger versions of this sort of system available for cranes.   Won't allow operation in all sea conditions but it could significantly expand what counts as "calm enough".    Of course it's unclear whether this would actually lead to any cost savings.   

Online TrevorMonty

Re: Blue Origin Update and Discussion Thread
« Reply #1965 on: 03/15/2017 04:41 PM »
I tend to agree with the above post that they do have a narrowing window for suborbital tourist hops. If NA or ITS with full recovery get off the ground orbital flight is going to get cheap fast. So what is that 4-8 years?
I am right in remembering NG is only first stage reuse?
The technology that makes orbital flights <$1M will make suborbital <$50k. Price difference will always be there.

Offline rsdavis9

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Re: Blue Origin Update and Discussion Thread
« Reply #1966 on: 03/15/2017 05:18 PM »
I tend to agree with the above post that they do have a narrowing window for suborbital tourist hops. If NA or ITS with full recovery get off the ground orbital flight is going to get cheap fast. So what is that 4-8 years?
I am right in remembering NG is only first stage reuse?
The technology that makes orbital flights <$1M will make suborbital <$50k. Price difference will always be there.

Yea but being a spacenut I don't think I would spring for the suborbital. What 5 minutes of weightlessness versus days or weeks.
bob

Online FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: Blue Origin Update and Discussion Thread
« Reply #1967 on: 03/15/2017 06:13 PM »
A lot more people can afford suborbital who can't afford orbital. Ok so you might not think a brief orbital flight is worth it, but my guess is that there will be a lot of other people who do.

Online Navier–Stokes

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Re: Blue Origin Update and Discussion Thread
« Reply #1968 on: 03/20/2017 06:28 PM »
Relevant quote from Chris Gebhardt's latest article:
“Pad 36 is being operated by Blue Origin,” notes Brig. Gen. Monteith. “They have started horizontal construction.  We hope they’ll be starting vertical construction later this year.

It might be time to start a pad 36 thread to track the construction as it progresses.
« Last Edit: 03/20/2017 06:29 PM by Navier–Stokes »

Online 2552

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Re: Blue Origin Update and Discussion Thread
« Reply #1969 on: Today at 07:33 PM »
https://twitter.com/RSgroshn/status/844596259776278529

Slide from Blue Origin presentation at SM2017 (original resolution), mentions New Glenn will have "initially expendable upper stages." Seems Blue plans to make New Glenn fully reusable at some point.

Original post on /r/BlueOrigin.

Online matthewkantar

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Re: Blue Origin Update and Discussion Thread
« Reply #1970 on: Today at 08:05 PM »
https://twitter.com/RSgroshn/status/844596259776278529

Slide from Blue Origin presentation at SM2017 (original resolution), mentions New Glenn will have "initially expendable upper stages." Seems Blue plans to make New Glenn fully reusable at some point.

Original post on /r/BlueOrigin.

The size of the first stage, combined with the fact they plan to build a bigger one some day, has led me to believe since the announcement of New Glenn that an reusable upper stage/fairing was in the works.

Matthew

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