..actual numbers and research (even if already mentioned on this site) are rarely referenced to, apart from being 'hard to find'.
It's surprising how already small a slice of the total pie launch is...
In 2015, the global space economy maintained its long-term growth trend, expanding from 14% compared to 2014 and totalling 291.4 billion EUR.In the upstream manufacturing segment, the global market value for orbital launches in 2015 reached 7.2 billion EUR, of which 33% on the commercial market. Launching six vehicles with commercial payloads in 2015, Europe earned 27% of the global commercial launch market. The spacecraft market generated 32 billion EUR in 2015, of which 17% on the commercial market.The overall consolidated turnover of the European manufacturing companies continued to rise at 7.5 billion EUR in 2015, up 4.5% from 20148. The core market of the European space manufacturers remains their large domestic market with European customers (public and private) representing about 75% of total sales....Due to engineering complexity of space programmes, the space industry is home to highly skilled professionals. The U.S. space industry core workforce has declined 16% over the past 10 years, employing 220,882 employees in 2015. In Europe, the space manufacturing segment alone employed 40,196 employees in 2015. Japan saw a 3.2% increase in its space workforce, for a total of 8,232 employees in 2014
Euroconsult anticipates that 145 satellites with launch mass over 50kg will be launched on average each year by 2025 for government agencies and commercial organizations worldwide. When including satellites smaller than 50kg and the two mega constellations of OneWeb and SpaceX, the total for the decade would grow precipitously to 9,000 units (vs. 1,480 launched in the past ten years.)The 1,450 satellites over 50kg to be launched over 2016-2025 should represent a market of $250 billion for the space industry to build and launch. A price decrease is visible in this core market of the industry, driven by 11 commercial constellations using 370 small satellites to be deployed into low or medium Earth orbits for communications or Earth observation.Still, over three quarters of the market remains with government satellites; the 880 satellites to be launched for civilian and military agencies in 60 countries represent a market of $193 billion. Governments dominate the space industry as established space countries replace and expand their in-orbit satellite systems and more countries acquire their first operational satellite systems, usually for communications or for Earth observation and imagery intelligence. About 85% of the government market will remain concentrated in the ten countries with an established space industry (U.S., Russia, China, Japan, India, and five European countries). The other 50 countries engaged in space activities will launch twice the number of satellites that they did inthe past ten years, i.e. almost 200 satellites. About half of these satellites will be procured from foreign manufacturers as domestic industry capabilities develop in these countries.In the commercial space sector, Euroconsult anticipates a total of 560 satellites to be launched over the decade by 40 companies. Most of these satellites will be for the replacement of the communications capacity currently in orbit. Over two-thirds of the commercial space market remains concentrated in geostationary orbit, the destination of almost 300 satellites operated by 30 companies for communications and broadcasting services. The 11 commercial constellations to be launched into non-geostationary orbits for communications and Earth observation imagery should represent a market of $1.6 billion per year on average over the decade.
The author forecasts that traffic carried over satellite will reach close to 3.5 Tbps by 2025, with a 16% CAGR over the ten-year period. This corresponds to an upward revision of our previous forecasts, which also takes into account the anticipated massive increase in capacity supply over the period. The leasing of larger capacity volumes will however be at the expense of lower pricing, also in a context of heightening competition and falling fill rates. While regional situations will remain diverse, we estimate that the global average capacity ARPU could be halved when expressed in MHz by 2025. This combination of higher volumes and lower pricing leads us to a capacity market value that would stand at around $14 billion by 2025 compared to $11 billion in 2015.The last year has confirmed the transformational nature of the satellite communication sector's current development phase, with the confirmed appeal of HTS for several user segments through the signing of capacity contracts and the announcement of broadband LEO constellation projects, even if most are still under development. The author projects total HTS capacity leased to more than triple in the next five years, supported by recently announced contracts for entire HTS payloads or beams.
World Government Expenditures for Space Programs • Total $62.2 bn US 35.9Europe 10.4China 4.9Russia 3.2Manned spaceflight 11.4
I like nice visualizations. So