Peter B. de Selding @pbdes 37m37 minutes agoArianespace(5): 13 openly competed GTO sat launch contracts signed in 2016. We won 7 (inc 2 unnamed), SpaceX got 3, ILS 2, China 1.
why Arianespace is currently winning more GTO orders than Space X?
SpaceX isn't "booked solid" in 2019, unless that's when they end up doing the launches on their 2018 manifest. They also recently added a flight in early 2018. SpaceX needs to prove this year that they can increase their flight rate. If they can finish 2017 only a couple months behind schedule then they'll probably start winning more orders again.
Hmmm, can I ask why SpaceX needs to win more GTO orders than Ariane at this point in time? If they are booked solid for 2-3 years, wouldn't they need to win more orders for future flights by EOY 2018?
Are there technical reasons (eg faring size, vertical integration, payload capacity?) why Arianespace is currently winning more GTO orders than Space X? Or is it about lack of SpaceX schedule dependability?
The manifest shows 32 flights booked for this year and 16 in 2018. They'd have to fly twice a month over two years to catch up in full.Let's say they achieve 18 flights per year, which I think is generous. That would put them into 2019 with a 12-flight backlog which, combined with the 5 flights already booked that year, means 2019 is nearly 'booked solid' already.
Quote from: dglow on 01/04/2017 05:18 pmThe manifest shows 32 flights booked for this year and 16 in 2018. They'd have to fly twice a month over two years to catch up in full.Let's say they achieve 18 flights per year, which I think is generous. That would put them into 2019 with a 12-flight backlog which, combined with the 5 flights already booked that year, means 2019 is nearly 'booked solid' already.You're just pulling numbers out of thin air.
If SpaceX can't achieve a rate higher than that some of their customers will need to find other rides. SpaceX is aiming for a rate higher than 18 per year.
Whether they will achieve it remains to be seen.
That, and the reliability issues, may be explanation enough.
I fail to see how it's "consumer confidence." People just want their satellites to launch soon, and SpaceX's has won so many that their manifest is super long.