Author Topic: Mystery Launch?  (Read 26950 times)

Offline Antares

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Re: Mystery Launch?
« Reply #40 on: 11/09/2010 07:50 PM »
If I like something on NSF, it's probably because I know it to be accurate.  Every once in a while, it's just something I agree with.  Facts generally receive the former.

Offline csmjr91090

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Re: Mystery Launch?
« Reply #41 on: 11/09/2010 08:03 PM »
http://flightaware.com/live/flight/USA808/history/20101108/1955Z/PHNL/KPHX

Right place, right time.

Good find, but it looks like it traveled a little south of the "origin" of this event. It crossed over the Southern end of Catalina Island, while this is being reported as being North of Catalina, but still South of SNI.

Offline JimO

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Re: Mystery Launch?
« Reply #42 on: 11/09/2010 08:06 PM »
My 2c is it's just an aircraft with an unusually pronounced contrail. It's moving way too slow in my opinion to be a missile well into the boost phase. The wind shear of the "lower" part of the plume also reminds me of typical shear at altitude, not the twisting and breaking of the plume by varying winds low to the ground.

It being taken near sunset would just tend to make it more noticeable and pronounced.

I am convinced that this is the correct explanation, and after some research, I've convinced my news media clients. They will move the story shortly.

Attaboy!


Offline JimO

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Re: Mystery Launch?
« Reply #43 on: 11/09/2010 08:09 PM »
Still on the fence about this one...but there is a surface missile launch tonight it appears. From NAS Point Mugu NOTAM:

NAVAIR SURFACE LAUNCH MISSILE TEST IN R-2519.  AIRCRAFT, MEN AND
EQUIPMENT WILL BE REQUIRED TO REMAIN CLEAR OF AREAS SOUTH OF TAXIWAY
A-2 SOMETIMES DURING THIS PERIOD.  MISSION ESSENTIAL FLIGHT REQUIRING
TRANSITIONS THROUGH THE RESTRICTED AREA SHALL CONTACT POINT MUGU
RANGE CONTROL (805-989-8280 OR 306.6) FOR DECONFLICTION. 09 NOV 22:00 2010 UNTIL
10 NOV 01:00 2010. CREATED: 09 NOV 15:17 2010

Related? 

Unlikely. Note the max altitude of the keep-out zone. It has been pointed out to me by a friend who may want to properly claim credit later, but I can share the observation that the max altitude for missile events is not flight level 390 (39,000 ft) but 'unlimited'.

Offline Namechange User

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Re: Mystery Launch?
« Reply #44 on: 11/09/2010 08:26 PM »
My 2c is it's just an aircraft with an unusually pronounced contrail. It's moving way too slow in my opinion to be a missile well into the boost phase. The wind shear of the "lower" part of the plume also reminds me of typical shear at altitude, not the twisting and breaking of the plume by varying winds low to the ground.

It being taken near sunset would just tend to make it more noticeable and pronounced.

I am convinced that this is the correct explanation, and after some research, I've convinced my news media clients. They will move the story shortly.

Attaboy!



I guess this is as possible as anything but wouldn't this be at least a somewhat "regular" occurance then?
Enjoying viewing the forum a little better now by filtering certain users.

Offline dninness

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Re: Mystery Launch?
« Reply #45 on: 11/09/2010 08:26 PM »
Good find, but it looks like it traveled a little south of the "origin" of this event. It crossed over the Southern end of Catalina Island, while this is being reported as being North of Catalina, but still South of SNI.

Well, key in this is ascertaining where the video was precisely shot from, and where the contrail of the jet would have intersected the horizon from that vantage point.

The actual path of the aircraft wouldn't have to pass over the island at all, in theory...


Offline catdlr

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Re: Mystery Launch?
« Reply #46 on: 11/09/2010 08:32 PM »
From a recent AP news report on this incident, carried on various new media outlets, the following was quoted:

Source: http://losangeles.cbslocal.com/2010/11/09/pentagon-cant-explain-missile-off-california/

"FAA Spokesman Ian Gregor later released this statement:
“The FAA ran radar replays of a large area west of Los Angeles based on media reports of the location of a possible missile launch around 5pm Monday. The radar replayed did not reveal any fast moving unidentified targets in that area. The FAA also did not receive reports of any unusual sightings from pilots who were flying in the area Monday afternoon.  Finally the FAA did not approve any commercial space launches around the area Monday.”
Tony De La Rosa

Offline csmjr91090

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Re: Mystery Launch?
« Reply #47 on: 11/09/2010 08:38 PM »
Good find, but it looks like it traveled a little south of the "origin" of this event. It crossed over the Southern end of Catalina Island, while this is being reported as being North of Catalina, but still South of SNI.

Well, key in this is ascertaining where the video was precisely shot from, and where the contrail of the jet would have intersected the horizon from that vantage point.


The actual path of the aircraft wouldn't have to pass over the island at all, in theory...



Very true...I also do wonder what a news chopper from San Diego was doing over LA? Not saying it can't happen, but it seems a bit unusual. The more I look at this, the more I think its nothing more than an aircraft contrail. I think this is just a perspective issue. At the reported distance, its moving too slow for a small/medium sized missile.

Offline catdlr

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Re: Mystery Launch?
« Reply #48 on: 11/09/2010 08:47 PM »
Good find, but it looks like it traveled a little south of the "origin" of this event. It crossed over the Southern end of Catalina Island, while this is being reported as being North of Catalina, but still South of SNI.

Well, key in this is ascertaining where the video was precisely shot from, and where the contrail of the jet would have intersected the horizon from that vantage point.


The actual path of the aircraft wouldn't have to pass over the island at all, in theory...



.I also do wonder what a news chopper from San Diego was doing over LA?

The video was actually captured by Los Angeles Based TV news Crews (KCBS 2) during their news hours traffic reporting over Los Angeles.  KCBS's sister station CBS 8 in San Diego (http://www.cbs8.com/) carried the news coverage that so many are referring to> 

From the CBS 8 news station :  "A mysterious missile launch off the southern California coast was caught on video Monday evening by a KCBS news helicopter."
« Last Edit: 11/09/2010 08:50 PM by catdlr »
Tony De La Rosa

Offline HIPAR

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Re: Mystery Launch?
« Reply #49 on: 11/09/2010 08:58 PM »
Aircraft contrail?  What's the flight number?  What's the altitude?  What's the course?  Whats the airspeed?  Does the meteorological data at the time of sighting match the characteristics of the contrail?  Were other aircraft over the west coast producing dense looking contrails?

---  CHAS

Offline csmjr91090

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Re: Mystery Launch?
« Reply #50 on: 11/09/2010 09:02 PM »
Aircraft contrail?  What's the flight number?  What's the altitude?  What's the course?  Whats the airspeed?  Does the meteorological data at the time of sighting match the characteristics of the contrail?  Were other aircraft over the west coast producing dense looking contrails?

---  CHAS

During winter here it frequently does produce thick dense contrails. Yesterday was a cold and windy day.

Offline dninness

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Re: Mystery Launch?
« Reply #51 on: 11/09/2010 09:03 PM »
Aircraft contrail?  What's the flight number?  What's the altitude?  What's the course?  Whats the airspeed?  Does the meteorological data at the time of sighting match the characteristics of the contrail?  Were other aircraft over the west coast producing dense looking contrails?

Already answered: http://flightaware.com/live/flight/USA808/history/20101108/1955Z/PHNL/KPHX

I have a buddy who, when I can get in touch with him, can probably turn the ADS-B data from FlightAware into a Google Earth KML file. Then you can just go into, adjust your "vantage point" in GE, and see a fair approximation of the visual generated from the helicopter's view.

Offline csmjr91090

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Re: Mystery Launch?
« Reply #52 on: 11/09/2010 09:04 PM »
Good find, but it looks like it traveled a little south of the "origin" of this event. It crossed over the Southern end of Catalina Island, while this is being reported as being North of Catalina, but still South of SNI.

Well, key in this is ascertaining where the video was precisely shot from, and where the contrail of the jet would have intersected the horizon from that vantage point.


The actual path of the aircraft wouldn't have to pass over the island at all, in theory...



.I also do wonder what a news chopper from San Diego was doing over LA?

The video was actually captured by Los Angeles Based TV news Crews (KCBS 2) during their news hours traffic reporting over Los Angeles.  KCBS's sister station CBS 8 in San Diego (http://www.cbs8.com/) carried the news coverage that so many are referring to> 

From the CBS 8 news station :  "A mysterious missile launch off the southern California coast was caught on video Monday evening by a KCBS news helicopter."

OK, that makes more sense. Thanks for clearing that up.

Offline MarsInMyLifetime

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Re: Mystery Launch?
« Reply #53 on: 11/09/2010 09:08 PM »
With only the news outlets as primary sources for the observation, it's hard to say what that was. This DailyTech article has a comment by an observer named "Divide Overflow" that sounds credible: http://www.dailytech.com/Mystery+Missile+Launch+Leaves+Californians+in+Shock/article20113.htm

I'd like to see more statements by witnesses like him.
« Last Edit: 11/09/2010 09:14 PM by MarsInMyLifetime »
Don

Offline csmjr91090

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Re: Mystery Launch?
« Reply #54 on: 11/09/2010 09:36 PM »
With only the news outlets as primary sources for the observation, it's hard to say what that was. This DailyTech article has a comment by an observer named "Divide Overflow" that sounds credible: http://www.dailytech.com/Mystery+Missile+Launch+Leaves+Californians+in+Shock/article20113.htm

I'd like to see more statements by witnesses like him.

I don't know how he could possibly tell from Catalina this this object "came from the ocean". If it is a plane, I think he is confusing "ocean" with horizon. 

If the FAA checked their radar tapes at the time this happened and didn't spot any fast moving objects, then I would doubt this would be a sub/ship based missile.
« Last Edit: 11/09/2010 09:44 PM by csmjr91090 »

Offline iamlucky13

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Re: Mystery Launch?
« Reply #55 on: 11/09/2010 09:50 PM »
Aircraft are entirely made up of curved surfaces. You can get reflections from pretty much any angle.

I'm sold on airplane, too.

In addition to all the other reasons stated, the contrail simply looks to me more like an aircraft contrail (thickening at the edges due to vortices) than a rocket contrail.

Offline csmjr91090

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Re: Mystery Launch?
« Reply #56 on: 11/09/2010 09:56 PM »
Aircraft are entirely made up of curved surfaces. You can get reflections from pretty much any angle.

I'm sold on airplane, too.

In addition to all the other reasons stated, the contrail simply looks to me more like an aircraft contrail (thickening at the edges due to vortices) than a rocket contrail.

Agree, edited my post after looking at the tape yet again. With as cold and windy as it was in this area yesterday, I'm convinced even more. As was said before, this was just right time right place.

Offline MarsInMyLifetime

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Re: Mystery Launch?
« Reply #57 on: 11/09/2010 09:58 PM »
And yet--here's a new video, with lots of good forensic hints (watch the plane crossing level at 37 seconds--while the background object is still climbing. I'd think level airliners at that distance would seem to be headed *downward" as they follow the curvature of the earth). So I'm still perplexed.

http://www.necn.com/11/09/10/Mysterious-missile-launched-off-Californ/landing_scitech.html?blockID=348833&feedID=4213
Don

Offline Space Possum

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Re: Mystery Launch?
« Reply #58 on: 11/09/2010 10:02 PM »
Well...here goes ::)
Most civilian radar sites actually track transponders aboard aircraft rather than the reflection from the skin of the plane. I know a lot of you know that. My point is, just because there isnothing on the radar tapes doesn't mean there was nothing there. Now MILITARY radar is another matter. We still haven't heard from them yet.

Offline Space Possum

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Re: Mystery Launch?
« Reply #59 on: 11/09/2010 10:08 PM »
I just looked at that other video and I'm with "Mars". I'm puzzled. I've watched a lot of contrails and this one looks...funny. It could be some classified military vehicle because it looks to be pretty far up there. But yes...it's hard to tell from the video. But still...........

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