Author Topic: Zubrin's Falcon Heavy Mars Mission  (Read 213981 times)

Offline Avron

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Re: Zubrin's Falcon Heavy Mars Mission
« Reply #360 on: 05/19/2013 01:33 pm »
Before i get all excited in terms of reactors on mars.. I need to see just how the reactor is to be cooled..

Offline kkattula

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Re: Zubrin's Falcon Heavy Mars Mission
« Reply #361 on: 05/19/2013 02:53 pm »
Maybe the private sector will raise the money. Stranger things have happened. It has to MAKE money in the end though. Somehow.

No, it just has to convince potential investors it could make money in the end. ;)
 
Plenty of big projects get investment yet fail to ever realize their predicted returns. Some are later bought out for cents on the dollar, and operated at profit and/or benefit to humanity.
 
How could it make money? Off the top of my head, I can think of three revenue streams:

1) Entertainment.  Discovery channel type reality TV of training, final crew selection, mission, etc. Could probably bring in tens if not hundreds of millions per year. The first landing and Mars walk could be worth billions.

2) Science data.  NASA and other institutions would probably pay hundreds of millions for the missions data, to include their own instruments, and to have experiments performed.

3) Merchandising.  All sorts of authorised memorabilia plus space craft and Mars base toys. Tie it into a kid's TV show and it could again be worth hundreds of millions, maybe more.

« Last Edit: 05/19/2013 03:07 pm by kkattula »

Offline Lar

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Re: Zubrin's Falcon Heavy Mars Mission
« Reply #362 on: 05/19/2013 03:12 pm »
Maybe the private sector will raise the money. Stranger things have happened. It has to MAKE money in the end though. Somehow.

No, it just has to convince potential investors it could make money in the end. ;)
 
Plenty of big projects get investment yet fail to ever realize their predicted returns. Some are later bought out for cents on the dollar, and operated at profit and/or benefit to humanity.


I was insufficiently precise and I'm going to claim :) that's what I meant. But ya. [1]

I think at least one satellite operating company went bankrupt, assets got bought, and the new owner is making money ( can't remember who)

Sadly, another one splashed all their birds, no?

But I don't think that commercial ventures that start out as for profit but fail were what QG meant. I invite him to elaborate because I'm terrible at guessing.

1 - what I should have said was "have a plan that seems plausible to investors that makes money"...
« Last Edit: 05/19/2013 03:13 pm by Lar »
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Offline QuantumG

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Re: Zubrin's Falcon Heavy Mars Mission
« Reply #363 on: 05/19/2013 11:53 pm »
But I don't think that commercial ventures that start out as for profit but fail were what QG meant. I invite him to elaborate because I'm terrible at guessing.

I merely meant an organization with a goal other than making money. There's millions of them that are not run by the government.

Random (completely unrelated) example: The Royal Automobile Club of Victoria has an annual budget of $443.3M and 2,623 staff. They don't make a dime and have no government subsidies.

Something with less members, making a bigger contributions, could pay for a whole lot of crew training, hardware development, launches, etc, etc. Combine with a for-profit sister company to reap media rights, data selling, patent licensing, etc, for added funding.
Human spaceflight is basically just LARPing now.

Offline Lar

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Re: Zubrin's Falcon Heavy Mars Mission
« Reply #364 on: 05/20/2013 12:33 am »
But I don't think that commercial ventures that start out as for profit but fail were what QG meant. I invite him to elaborate because I'm terrible at guessing.

I merely meant an organization with a goal other than making money. There's millions of them that are not run by the government.

Random (completely unrelated) example: The Royal Automobile Club of Victoria has an annual budget of $443.3M and 2,623 staff. They don't make a dime and have no government subsidies.

Something with less members, making a bigger contributions, could pay for a whole lot of crew training, hardware development, launches, etc, etc. Combine with a for-profit sister company to reap media rights, data selling, patent licensing, etc, for added funding.


It would be neat if the National Geographic Society, or some such, sponsored something, ya... Thanks for clarifying.
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Offline Biolawyer

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Re: Zubrin's Falcon Heavy Mars Mission
« Reply #365 on: 05/22/2013 09:52 pm »
Quote
Flight 1. Falcon Heavy puts Earth Return Vehicle into Mars orbit.
Flight 2. Falcon Heavy puts Mars Ascent Vehicle on Mars surface.
Flight 3. Falcon Heavy sends Crew Transfer Vehicle to Mars to precise landing.
Crew spends 500 days on the surface, uses the MAV to ascend to the ERV and return to an ocean landing.

BTT: 

1.  Can Falcon Heavy put the ERV on Mars surface (where, for example, Raptor powered methane engines can be refueled) instead of doing the Mars orbital rendezvous (without all the ground tracking stations)? 

2.  Regarding the 3rd flight, why not a Falcon 9/Dragon with rendezvous in Earth orbit?  Why does Dr. Zubrin reject a Mars Transfer vehicle?



Offline go4mars

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Re: Zubrin's Falcon Heavy Mars Mission
« Reply #366 on: 07/13/2015 07:24 am »
 
2.  Regarding the 3rd flight, why not a Falcon 9/Dragon with rendezvous in Earth orbit?  Why does Dr. Zubrin reject a Mars Transfer vehicle?
Can you elaborate on these?
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Offline maitri982

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Re: Zubrin's Falcon Heavy Mars Mission
« Reply #367 on: 03/06/2016 01:17 am »
If a raptor upper stage is made and is made to work with the Falcon Heavy, then perhaps a more straightforward Mars Direct does indeed become possible.

I don't want to wait for MCT to have people on Mars...this is one way it could happen sooner.

Offline guckyfan

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Re: Zubrin's Falcon Heavy Mars Mission
« Reply #368 on: 03/06/2016 07:12 am »
If a raptor upper stage is made and is made to work with the Falcon Heavy, then perhaps a more straightforward Mars Direct does indeed become possible.

I don't want to wait for MCT to have people on Mars...this is one way it could happen sooner.

Who should build that architecture?

SpaceX is already stretching it to the limits designing one system, the MCT. They may land a reusable methane stage on Mars as a precursor mission but not develop it into a fully manned architecture. Also I see 2030 as  really fast. Why an interim manned system? Just to win that 2025 bet? I don't think Elon Musk works that way.

He could pull a Mars One. Send a handful of people on a one way mission with Dragon and resupply them with methane upper stages until MCT is working. But that is very high risk and Elon Musk has already stated he won't send people until return fuel production is achieved. It also does not come cheap.
Edit: Actually cheap but not cheap enough that Elon Musk could do it as a sidetrack to developing Raptor.

NASA doing it? If free to use their present budget for it they may be able. But post Apollo NASA and fast don't seem to mix any more.
« Last Edit: 03/06/2016 07:14 am by guckyfan »

Offline maitri982

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Re: Zubrin's Falcon Heavy Mars Mission
« Reply #369 on: 03/06/2016 02:23 pm »
I agree that Musk probably would not do this on his own.  So if it was to happen it would be a NASA mission...in other words will never happen since NASA claims Orion and SLS are for manned Mars, which is made up Fantasy of course. 


Online spacenut

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Re: Zubrin's Falcon Heavy Mars Mission
« Reply #370 on: 03/06/2016 04:39 pm »
If Musk can get the BFR built, then NASA and other's may get involved.  Even the FH with a methane upper stage might get people interested in doing something. 

Online envy887

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Re: Zubrin's Falcon Heavy Mars Mission
« Reply #371 on: 04/28/2016 08:36 pm »
If Musk can get the BFR built, then NASA and other's may get involved.  Even the FH with a methane upper stage might get people interested in doing something.

BFR could in theory throw so much mass that a relatively straightforward exploration type mission wouldn't need major new operational abilities, just bigger versions of existing or mostly-developed hardware.

A 15 million lbf thrust BFR (which Musk has mentioned) with a mostly custom stack on top could throw a 6-person crew to Mars and back in one Apollo style shot, no ISRU or orbital refueling needed. The hardware riding on that BFR could be mostly BEAM, Dragon and Raptor derived: a triple Raptor LEO stage and single Raptor TMI stage; all propulsion past TMI done by SuperDraco (LMO insertion, Mars EDL, Mars ascent and rendezvous, TEI, Earth EDL).

Offline philw1776

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Re: Zubrin's Falcon Heavy Mars Mission
« Reply #372 on: 04/29/2016 04:52 pm »

BFR could in theory throw so much mass that a relatively straightforward exploration type mission wouldn't need major new operational abilities, just bigger versions of existing or mostly-developed hardware.

A 15 million lbf thrust BFR (which Musk has mentioned) with a mostly custom stack on top could throw a 6-person crew to Mars and back in one Apollo style shot, no ISRU or orbital refueling needed. The hardware riding on that BFR could be mostly BEAM, Dragon and Raptor derived: a triple Raptor LEO stage and single Raptor TMI stage; all propulsion past TMI done by SuperDraco (LMO insertion, Mars EDL, Mars ascent and rendezvous, TEI, Earth EDL).

Not quite.
A 15 million pound thrust BFR might possibly throw a 6 person crew to Mars' surface even without orbital refueling assuming Mars aerobraking to bleed off most of the velocity but ISRU would ABSOLUTELY be needed to get back to Earth.

SuperDracos have lousy ISP and would be a terrible design for the many Km/sec needed for Mars ascent & rendezvous, TEI, etc.
« Last Edit: 04/29/2016 04:54 pm by philw1776 »
FULL SEND!!!!

Online envy887

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Re: Zubrin's Falcon Heavy Mars Mission
« Reply #373 on: 04/30/2016 09:51 pm »
True enough. Storable methalox would probably be necessary for inserting the transit hab into LMO, and for TEI. A dedicated vacuum-optimized booster would be needed to get the return Dragon close to LMO. SuperDracos would only do EDL and maybe the last bit of dV to LMO.

My point is that if Musk gets BFR built, missions to Mars on this scale are nearly a certainty, and missions of a much bigger scale are likely... regardless of NASA's interest.

Offline Elmar Moelzer

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Re: Zubrin's Falcon Heavy Mars Mission
« Reply #374 on: 05/01/2016 03:41 am »
Before i get all excited in terms of reactors on mars.. I need to see just how the reactor is to be cooled..
I would presume that you use the ground as a conductor to conduct the heat away and otherwise just have a long tube of sorts to pump the cooling water through. Should be easier than cooling nuclear reactors in space and we do know how to do that.

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