Quote from: MikeAtkinson on 06/10/2016 05:03 pmQuote from: mme on 06/10/2016 04:56 pmQuote from: starsilk on 06/10/2016 04:02 pma few more teasers before the september reveal:https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-switch/wp/2016/06/10/elon-musk-provides-new-details-on-his-mind-blowing-mission-to-mars/1 red dragon in 2018, 'at least 2' in 2020, then first flight of MCT in 2022...Bold mine.That is first fight of MCT to Mars in 2022, which likely means that BFR/BFS first flight would need to be in 2021."Then in 2022, Musk said he hoped to launch what the company now sometimes refers to as the Mars Colonial Transporter, designed to bring a colony to Mars."Says to me, first launch of MCT in 2022, NOT specifically TO Mars, just launch.
Quote from: mme on 06/10/2016 04:56 pmQuote from: starsilk on 06/10/2016 04:02 pma few more teasers before the september reveal:https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-switch/wp/2016/06/10/elon-musk-provides-new-details-on-his-mind-blowing-mission-to-mars/1 red dragon in 2018, 'at least 2' in 2020, then first flight of MCT in 2022...Bold mine.That is first fight of MCT to Mars in 2022, which likely means that BFR/BFS first flight would need to be in 2021.
Quote from: starsilk on 06/10/2016 04:02 pma few more teasers before the september reveal:https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-switch/wp/2016/06/10/elon-musk-provides-new-details-on-his-mind-blowing-mission-to-mars/1 red dragon in 2018, 'at least 2' in 2020, then first flight of MCT in 2022...Bold mine.
a few more teasers before the september reveal:https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-switch/wp/2016/06/10/elon-musk-provides-new-details-on-his-mind-blowing-mission-to-mars/1 red dragon in 2018, 'at least 2' in 2020, then first flight of MCT in 2022...
Mars EDL is different enough from Earth EDL that you're going to have to do a test of MCT on Mars before you send people.
Quote from: Robotbeat on 06/10/2016 06:55 pmMars EDL is different enough from Earth EDL that you're going to have to do a test of MCT on Mars before you send people.Well an landed and not refueled crewless BFS / MCT would make an excellent hab and start of a Mars base.Imagine the workshops, repair and other facilities, heavy earth movers, cranes, rovers, etc that could be built into and delivered by a crewless BFS that never returned to Earth but became SpX Mars Base 1.
Quote from: TheTraveller on 06/10/2016 07:06 pmQuote from: Robotbeat on 06/10/2016 06:55 pmMars EDL is different enough from Earth EDL that you're going to have to do a test of MCT on Mars before you send people.Well an landed and not refueled crewless BFS / MCT would make an excellent hab and start of a Mars base.Imagine the workshops, repair and other facilities, heavy earth movers, cranes, rovers, etc that could be built into and delivered by a crewless BFS that never returned to Earth but became SpX Mars Base 1.Maybe they'll send 2 BFSes the first time, one to return and one to stay.
Launch 1st BFS into LEO, do heaps of checks, put in a bit of fuel, do a lunar loop & propulsive land on Earth.Maybe next check flight is to land on Luna and rtn Earth.No need to wait for Mars synods to do these and other pre TMI burn checkouts of the 1st BFS.
Quote from: TheTraveller on 06/10/2016 06:49 pmLaunch 1st BFS into LEO, do heaps of checks, put in a bit of fuel, do a lunar loop & propulsive land on Earth.Maybe next check flight is to land on Luna and rtn Earth.No need to wait for Mars synods to do these and other pre TMI burn checkouts of the 1st BFS.If this is the 1st BFS you don't have anything to put in a bit of fuel.Perhaps Mission 2a & 2b: Relauch BFS 1; Launch BFS 2 BFS 1 refuels BFS 2, or vice versa. BFS 1 lands; BFS 2 goes to moon, possibly landing if fuel levels permit return. BFS 2 returns and lands.But certainly agree this is not tied to Mars synods, other than to be done beforehand.
Quote from: IntoTheVoid on 06/10/2016 09:00 pmQuote from: TheTraveller on 06/10/2016 06:49 pmLaunch 1st BFS into LEO, do heaps of checks, put in a bit of fuel, do a lunar loop & propulsive land on Earth.Maybe next check flight is to land on Luna and rtn Earth.No need to wait for Mars synods to do these and other pre TMI burn checkouts of the 1st BFS.If this is the 1st BFS you don't have anything to put in a bit of fuel.Perhaps Mission 2a & 2b: Relauch BFS 1; Launch BFS 2 BFS 1 refuels BFS 2, or vice versa. BFS 1 lands; BFS 2 goes to moon, possibly landing if fuel levels permit return. BFS 2 returns and lands.But certainly agree this is not tied to Mars synods, other than to be done beforehand.BFR, without a BFS load can put a lot of fuel into LEO. So launch BFS on BFR which lands, is refueled and launch into LEO, then transfers fuel to BFS for moon loop around or later Luna landing and return (will need to be a very light BFS or maybe put a BFR tanker in LLO)For sure SpX will have solved how to maintain methlox in space for a very long time or Mars landing of BFS using methlox Raptors will never happen.
It will need two orbiting vehicles. One that gets refuelled and one that does the fuelling run. An ability that needs to be tested early. The tanker may not qualify as MCT.
I'm extremely curious about what kind of site selection process they'll be going through.
Musk quoted in the Washington Times article:"At another point he said, “I’m so tempted to talk more about the details of it. But I have to restrain myself.”"First a bit of irony is that Musk is talking about his plans in a publication that Jeff Bezos owns.What caught my eye in the article also was this:"Then in 2022, Musk said he hoped to launch what the company now sometimes refers to as the Mars Colonial Transporter, designed to bring a colony to Mars."Being a product scheduling professional, my mind started backing off that date all of the physical tasks that needed to happen in just 6 short years. Including:- Launch and manufacturing site selection, development, and building and staffing of the factory (assumed to be co-located).- Production of the first test vehicle, which may not go to Mars but is used only for test purposes.- Production and testing of the first vehicle to go to Mars in 2022, with test flights to validate it's ready.- Sources of funding, i.e. money, and lots of it. Sure SpaceX and Musk will be supplying some part of that, but I would imagine that Musk is working on getting BOMC's (Believers Of Mars Colonization) to contribute too.And if we're talking MCT, we have to assume the BFR will also be under development. That is a lot. I would imagine we'll get a sense of the schedule of events when Musk unveils more details in September, and as he says in the article:"And he acknowledged that the company would have to “get lucky and things go according to plan” to hit a launch window for manned flight in late 2024, with a landing in 2025."I'm already crossing my fingers for luck...
Can't wait until September when we find out what is really going on.
When I enumerate the myriad serious steps and when I look at the cash needed, I am very skeptical of Musk's admitted "everything goes right" schedule. But unlike myself as a former VP Engineering/CTO, he won't fire himself when he seriously misses the best case schedule.
When you own the whole thing you can set best case schedules and not suffer the consequences of missing them....unless you run out of cash! I also have an MBA in finance and do worry about sufficient cash to fund all this.
On top of everything SX is doing, they gotta fund BFR/BFS development, a BFR/BFS factory, a launch complex, a likely off shore launch complex... the list goes on.
As someone who had to nickel & dime product cost as well as product performance to be competitive, I have industry experience based respect for Elon's product cost management and life cycle cost management. The guy is a true polymath.Bottom Line: even if he's years late as I believe he will be, it is civilization changing.Good health, Elon!
Quote from: guckyfan on 06/10/2016 09:49 pmIt will need two orbiting vehicles. One that gets refuelled and one that does the fuelling run. An ability that needs to be tested early. The tanker may not qualify as MCT.Well, util the recent article the MCT term had seemed to be in retirement, replaced by the BFR/BFS terminology, and purposefully or not Elon seems to keep the terms 'muddy'.My point was/is that the first space vehicle boosted to orbit by a raptor powered first stage is highly unlikely to be refueled by anything. It is far more likely that that space vehicle will be the thing expected to do the refueling in the future. If there is a specific tanker version, I would expect it to be the first version launched because none of the others go too far without it. It's also likely to be the simplest version (if in fact there are different versions).