Author Topic: Huge order for Iridium spacecraft  (Read 23886 times)

Offline bolun

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Huge order for Iridium spacecraft
« on: 06/02/2010 01:02 pm »
The mobile satellite services provider Iridium has ordered 81 spacecraft to upgrade its global network.

Thales Alenia Space of France will build the satellites - 66 to form the operational constellation, the remainder to act as spares.

The order makes the Iridium Next venture the biggest commercial space project in the world today. ($2.9bn)

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science_and_environment/10212836.stm

Offline kevin-rf

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Re: Huge order for Iridium spacecraft
« Reply #1 on: 06/02/2010 02:52 pm »
Wonder who will get the launch contracts... Think it will be a split order like last time? Soyuz? Falcon? Taurus?
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Offline Herb Schaltegger

Re: Huge order for Iridium spacecraft
« Reply #2 on: 06/02/2010 03:06 pm »
Wow, it's like the 1990's all over again.  I wonder if Iridium's business model will fall apart and demolish the launch industry's projections again too? :p
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Offline corrodedNut

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Re: Huge order for Iridium spacecraft
« Reply #3 on: 06/02/2010 03:29 pm »
Wonder who will get the launch contracts... Think it will be a split order like last time? Soyuz? Falcon? Taurus?

Space News says it's SpaceX:

http://www.spacenews.com/contracts/100513-downpayment-iridiumnext-launches.html

"Iridium said it has paid $19 million to an unnamed launch services provider “to secure the terms and conditions” associated with launches of the Iridium Next constellation.

Industry officials said Iridium has been in negotiations with startup launch service provider Space Exploration Technologies of Hawthorne, Calif., which is advertising prices substantially lower than the competition but has yet to prove it can meet the requirements of a commercial program like Iridium.

Iridium said the $19 million deposit is refundable if the company is unable to secure Iridium Next financing, or if it has not signed a firm Iridium Next satellite construction contract within 12 months."

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: Huge order for Iridium spacecraft
« Reply #4 on: 06/02/2010 03:32 pm »
Wow, it's like the 1990's all over again.  I wonder if Iridium's business model will fall apart and demolish the launch industry's projections again too? :p
I think it will do better this time. Tempered by past failure yet with a larger market, grown by cell phone companies and people like Orbcomm. People and businesses are hungry for more data.

I know a lot of American cellphone companies will charge you near what a sat phone costs if you call from Africa (unless you look around for deals).

And about SpaceX... I guess even more is riding on Falcon 9 to get working! Iridium has a slight advantage over other companies in that they'll need large numbers of mass-produced satellites, so a single launch failure won't hurt them as much as a company whose almost entire business depends on the success of one or two GSO birds. Therefore, they can tolerate more risk earlier on, which allows them to drive a harder bargain.
« Last Edit: 06/02/2010 03:33 pm by Robotbeat »
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Offline kevin-rf

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Re: Huge order for Iridium spacecraft
« Reply #5 on: 06/02/2010 04:16 pm »

You have to weigh two things.

How fast do they want to deploy, remember last time they launched on Delta II, Proton, and Long March. If they want similar speed what are the chances they split the launch order again?

Who will provide the cheapest ride to orbit? Will it be SpaceX? ILS? Orbital? Arianespace? or could we see some Atlas/Delta launches through ULA?

Don't forget the underwriting is by Compagnie Francaise d'Assurance pour le Commerce Exterieur. Might it influence who the launch providers are (As in buy french)? We do not know yet. SpaceX is not a given.

It will be interesting to see who picks up the launch contracts...

*Would commercial Atlas/Delta launch services be provided by ULA or Lockheed / Boeing?
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Offline Ronsmytheiii

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Re: Huge order for Iridium spacecraft
« Reply #6 on: 06/02/2010 04:45 pm »
Of course, the company could be simply waiting to see what the final weight of the satellites will be, as well as waiting to see how the LV market progresses before buying rides (ie whether Sealaunch emerges from bankruptcy, how India's GSLV Mk.II eventually performs, and of course how well Falcon IX/Taurus II do).  I would not be surprised if the launches were wpilt between different companies as well.
« Last Edit: 06/02/2010 04:46 pm by Ronsmytheiii »

Offline jimvela

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Re: Huge order for Iridium spacecraft
« Reply #7 on: 06/02/2010 04:57 pm »
The mobile satellite services provider Iridium has ordered 81 spacecraft to upgrade its global network.

Thales Alenia Space of France will build the satellites - 66 to form the operational constellation, the remainder to act as spares.

The order makes the Iridium Next venture the biggest commercial space project in the world today. ($2.9bn)

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science_and_environment/10212836.stm

Happy camper here- those spacecraft will be doing integration and test at our facility in the US... Woo Hoo!! 

Offline Chris Bergin

Re: Huge order for Iridium spacecraft
« Reply #8 on: 06/02/2010 04:59 pm »
Nice work there Jim, should keep you all busy for a while :) Never seen an order this big before!
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Offline jimvela

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Re: Huge order for Iridium spacecraft
« Reply #9 on: 06/02/2010 05:18 pm »
Nice work there Jim, should keep you all busy for a while :) Never seen an order this big before!

It's the outstanding work the proposal folks did that brought the win home, my (small) part will come into play when the actual hardware starts to be processed.

Still, a good day!

Offline SpacexULA

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Re: Huge order for Iridium spacecraft
« Reply #10 on: 06/02/2010 05:27 pm »
Nice work there Jim, should keep you all busy for a while :) Never seen an order this big before!

What is the ballpark mass of these satellites?

1-5mt 5-10 10-15 15-20?

I don't know much about Iridium, can you deploy more than 1 Iridium spacecraft per launch?
« Last Edit: 06/02/2010 05:28 pm by SpacexULA »
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Offline Robotbeat

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Re: Huge order for Iridium spacecraft
« Reply #11 on: 06/02/2010 05:31 pm »
Nice work there Jim, should keep you all busy for a while :) Never seen an order this big before!

What is the ballpark mass of these satellites?

1-5mt 5-10 10-15 15-20?

I don't know much about Iridium, can you deploy more than 1 Iridium spacecraft per launch?

The old satellites are all less than a ton (680kg). New ones will probably be more, but I'm pretty sure they won't be bigger than 5 tons! Of course, I should probably shut my mouth and let someone who actually knows give a better answer. ;)
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Offline kevin-rf

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Re: Huge order for Iridium spacecraft
« Reply #12 on: 06/02/2010 05:38 pm »
Astronautics lists the mass as 689 kg, they went up in groups of 5 (Delta-II), 7 (Proton), and 2 (Long March).

http://www.astronautix.com/project/iridium.htm

Good job landing the work Jim.
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Offline Downix

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Re: Huge order for Iridium spacecraft
« Reply #13 on: 06/02/2010 06:01 pm »
And about SpaceX... I guess even more is riding on Falcon 9 to get working!
Why for?  Iridiums are better suited to the Falcon 1e than the 9.
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Offline Robotbeat

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Re: Huge order for Iridium spacecraft
« Reply #14 on: 06/02/2010 06:05 pm »
And about SpaceX... I guess even more is riding on Falcon 9 to get working!
Why for?  Iridiums are better suited to the Falcon 1e than the 9.
Not for multiple launches (something common with LEO constellations). Sure, the old satellites are 680kg, but what if the new ones are much bigger? Falcon 9 will probably have a lower price-per-kg-to-LEO than Falcon 1e when all is said and done. Also, Falcon 9 is essential to the long-term viability of SpaceX.
« Last Edit: 06/02/2010 06:07 pm by Robotbeat »
Chris  Whoever loves correction loves knowledge, but he who hates reproof is stupid.

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Offline Downix

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Re: Huge order for Iridium spacecraft
« Reply #15 on: 06/02/2010 06:25 pm »
And about SpaceX... I guess even more is riding on Falcon 9 to get working!
Why for?  Iridiums are better suited to the Falcon 1e than the 9.
Not for multiple launches (something common with LEO constellations). Sure, the old satellites are 680kg, but what if the new ones are much bigger? Falcon 9 will probably have a lower price-per-kg-to-LEO than Falcon 1e when all is said and done. Also, Falcon 9 is essential to the long-term viability of SpaceX.
Quite true.  If Iridium has a mechanism to "seed" orbit from a single Falcon 9, then they may have a very low cost operation indeed.
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Offline simonth

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Re: Huge order for Iridium spacecraft
« Reply #16 on: 06/02/2010 06:29 pm »
And about SpaceX... I guess even more is riding on Falcon 9 to get working!
Why for?  Iridiums are better suited to the Falcon 1e than the 9.

As stated above, Iridium once before used multiple providers for launches with on average 4 satellites per vehicle. This was done primarily due to two reasons:1.  rapid deployment, a single launch provider cannot fly 15 flights within 12 months and 2. diversification, that is having back-up launch providers if one launch fails and the vehicle of that company has to stand down for a while.

I think, if this contract really is fully executed, they will do the same again. They will contract with 3 (at a minimum 2) launch providers, SpaceX may be one of them, but the vehicle of choice will likely not be Falcon 1e but Falcon 9 (if that vehicle has a reliable track record by the time of launch).

My guess for their launch fleet would be Falcon 9, Proton and potentially Long March again.

Offline Blackstar

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Re: Huge order for Iridium spacecraft
« Reply #17 on: 06/02/2010 06:38 pm »
Wow, it's like the 1990's all over again.  I wonder if Iridium's business model will fall apart and demolish the launch industry's projections again too? :p

They should do better this time.  Remember that it was not just Iridium, but a bunch of other companies.  I've forgotten their names.  There was Teledesic, but wasn't there also GlobalStar and Ellipse?  Somebody can correct me.

They were collectively referred to as the "big LEOs" because they were going to put large constellations in LEO.  It was the space equivalent of the dot-com boom, and it crashed mightily as well, taking billions of dollars with it.  The subject is probably ripe for a good business history about all these companies trying to do this stuff and then failing miserably.

There's some irony in the story, of course (there's irony in everything).  From what I've heard, Motorola actually did well on the deal, because they essentially used investors' money to pay themselves to build the satellites.  So when Iridium went bust, Motorola had made its money.  Of course, they're not being paid to build these new satellites.

My guess is that Iridium could not go forward with this large satellite order now unless they had a very convincing business model to show to their investors.  Probably at least part of that model is based on the relative lack of competition.  But they're also serving a proven niche market.  Back in the 1990s they had very ambitious plans.

(As a sidenote: I wanted to buy an Iridium phone as a memento back when they went bankrupt.  I figured I could get it on eBay as a piece of junk electronic equipment.  But when the company came out of bankruptcy, the phones were suddenly worth something.)

Offline kevin-rf

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Re: Huge order for Iridium spacecraft
« Reply #18 on: 06/02/2010 07:30 pm »
I am curious, what launch vehicles are/would be available... Might be worth debating the merits of each.

Falcon 9
Taurus II
Soyuz (Kourou, Baikonur)
Proton
Zenit (Land/Sea Launch)
Ariane V (To large?)
Long March (When is the last time they sold a commercial launch?)
Atlas V
Delta IV
H-2
GSLV

Though I would rank it as a low probality, Chances of the payloads flying on the smaller launchers?
Pegasus
Minotuar
Vega
Falcon 1e
Rockot
Dnepr

I miss any? Quite a fleet out there. I think they can launch the whole fleet using one of each...

Personally, I would vote a mix of Falcon 9, Soyuz (Kourou), and Proton. If they use a single vehicle, based on the financing my bias is Soyuz (Kourou).

I still don't see how they are going to pay for this...

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Offline agman25

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Re: Huge order for Iridium spacecraft
« Reply #19 on: 06/02/2010 07:39 pm »
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