Author Topic: Impact of Rouble Crash on Russian Aerospace Industry Plans  (Read 54302 times)

Offline Danderman

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This thread is NOT about impact of souring East West relations on Russian aerospace, but rather, the impact of the current financial crisis in Russia caused by the oil glut on Russian aerospace.

My feeling is that most of the announced increases in spending on space projects will never materialize.

First launch from the Soyuz pad at Vostochny is probably going to be at the end of this decade, but the Angara pad will probably be five years late.

You can forget the Soyuz replacement within the next 10 years, and HLV is a project for the 30s.

Angara-5 will not, therefore, replace Proton for GSO launches for at least another 10 years, unless they are performed from Plesetsk.

I would bet money that Progress launches will be reduced from 4 to 3 per year, within 2 years.

No chance of a new Russian space station within 10 years. If MLM is announced to be flown as part of a new station rather than to ISS, it will never fly.

Any program that generates foreign capital will continue unabated, unless the political environment prohibits it. For example, Dnepr flights will continue.

Aerospace workers will not get significant raises, and the bifurcation of the industry into very old and very young workers will continue, along with a relatively high failure rate of equipment.






Offline sdsds

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Hmm, yes. I tried to get a sense of how much the purchasing power of the ruble has declined. Attached is a plot showing its one-year history against both dollars and gold. Ouch!

But to what extent does this hurt their aerospace industry, which presumably pays most of its bills in rubles?
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Offline woods170

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This thread is NOT about impact of souring East West relations on Russian aerospace, but rather, the impact of the current financial crisis in Russia caused by the oil glut on Russian aerospace.

My feeling is that most of the announced increases in spending on space projects will never materialize.

First launch from the Soyuz pad at Vostochny is probably going to be at the end of this decade, but the Angara pad will probably be five years late.

You can forget the Soyuz replacement within the next 10 years, and HLV is a project for the 30s.

Angara-5 will not, therefore, replace Proton for GSO launches for at least another 10 years, unless they are performed from Plesetsk.

I would bet money that Progress launches will be reduced from 4 to 3 per year, within 2 years.

No chance of a new Russian space station within 10 years. If MLM is announced to be flown as part of a new station rather than to ISS, it will never fly.

Any program that generates foreign capital will continue unabated, unless the political environment prohibits it. For example, Dnepr flights will continue.

Aerospace workers will not get significant raises, and the bifurcation of the industry into very old and very young workers will continue, along with a relatively high failure rate of equipment.

IMO that is a very bleak (read: pessimistic) take on current affairs.

Offline asmi

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I would bet money that Progress launches will be reduced from 4 to 3 per year, within 2 years.
How much money are you willing to bet?

To other points - all of that depends on a political will much more than on economics as all these projects are just peanuts financially speaking. As far as I know, there is currently huge political pressure to get A5 flying (at least from Plesetsk), and complete Soyuz pad at Vostochny, so these are almost certain to happen. As for the rest - we will see.
« Last Edit: 12/02/2014 04:52 pm by asmi »

Offline Lars-J

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First launch from the Soyuz pad at Vostochny is probably going to be at the end of this decade, but the Angara pad will probably be five years late.

This seems overly pessimistic. The pad appears to be half-done, and there is lots of prestige at play for Putin. I don't think it will take 4-5 years until the first launch.

You can forget the Soyuz replacement within the next 10 years, and HLV is a project for the 30s.

The only Soyuz replacements in the pipeline are incremental Soyuz upgrades, and they should move ahead where funds allow. Soyuz 2-1v (no boosters, NK-33 engine) has already flown once, and the Soyuz 2-3 (2-1v with boosters) would be a low-cost upgrade that could be fielded if needed.

Angara-5 will not, therefore, replace Proton for GSO launches for at least another 10 years, unless they are performed from Plesetsk.

Well, it turns out that the first A5 launch (scheduled for the new few weeks) is taking a test payload to GTO, so it looks like the plan is to indeed perform some GSO missions from Plesetsk.

I don't think the picture is as grim as you paint it. There is always a lot of powerpoint projects coming out of Russia, but that is nothing new. (nor is it limited to Russia)
« Last Edit: 12/02/2014 07:10 pm by Lars-J »

Offline Prober

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I would bet money that Progress launches will be reduced from 4 to 3 per year, within 2 years.
How much money are you willing to bet?

To other points - all of that depends on a political will much more than on economics as all these projects are just peanuts financially speaking. As far as I know, there is currently huge political pressure to get A5 flying (at least from Plesetsk), and complete Soyuz pad at Vostochny, so these are almost certain to happen. As for the rest - we will see.

Vostochny as a full scale spaceport might be at an end.   Before the cash mess, a labor mess in Vostochny was in process. If the Soyuz pad is made operational look for more of a military site like Plesetsk. 

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Offline SIEP

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The World is ending, oh no! ::)

I fail to understand the point in posting pure personal speculation, in light of rules that lead to the deletion of certain posts and threads while others evade the same fate, like this one.

Offline Danderman

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First launch from the Soyuz pad at Vostochny is probably going to be at the end of this decade, but the Angara pad will probably be five years late.

This seems overly pessimistic. The pad appears to be half-done, and there is lots of prestige at play for Putin. I don't think it will take 4-5 years until the first launch.

You can forget the Soyuz replacement within the next 10 years, and HLV is a project for the 30s.

The only Soyuz replacements in the pipeline are incremental Soyuz upgrades, and they should move ahead where funds allow. Soyuz 2-1v (no boosters, NK-33 engine) has already flown once, and the Soyuz 2-3 (2-1v with boosters) would be a low-cost upgrade that could be fielded if needed.

Angara-5 will not, therefore, replace Proton for GSO launches for at least another 10 years, unless they are performed from Plesetsk.

Well, it turns out that the first A5 launch (scheduled for the new few weeks) is taking a test payload to GTO, so it looks like the plan is to indeed perform some GSO missions from Plesetsk.

I don't think the picture is as grim as you paint it. There is always a lot of powerpoint projects coming out of Russia, but that is nothing new. (nor is it limited to Russia)

Two different issues here:

1) By "Soyuz replacement", I meant the spacecraft, not the launcher. Since there is going to be a Soyuz launch pad at Vostochny, I am presuming that Soyuz LV will continue indefinitely.

2) Angara 5 launched from Plesetsk can put smaller payloads into GSO, but cannot replace Proton functionality.

Offline Danderman

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The World is ending, oh no! ::)

I fail to understand the point in posting pure personal speculation, in light of rules that lead to the deletion of certain posts and threads while others evade the same fate, like this one.

I am not suggesting that the Russian space program is coming to an end due to the economic problems, only that a slowdown should be expected, which is contrary to the official story today.


Offline Prober

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The World is ending, oh no! ::)

I fail to understand the point in posting pure personal speculation, in light of rules that lead to the deletion of certain posts and threads while others evade the same fate, like this one.

I am not suggesting that the Russian space program is coming to an end due to the economic problems, only that a slowdown should be expected, which is contrary to the official story today.

This thread is NOT about impact of souring East West relations on Russian aerospace, but rather, the impact of the current financial crisis in Russia caused by the oil glut on Russian aerospace.

I'm going to try and word this in a non-political way, so take it as such.  Its just an understanding of the monies tied to oil.

One of the major monies tied to Oil is the USA dollar.    Russia has said it no longer wished to use the US dollar as the trading currency.  Has signed an agreement to move Oil monies to a new currency the Chinese yuan.

It will take a few years of this major transition.  The process good, or bad, leaves Russia's space program's future, in the hands of the Chinese yuan.



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Offline Danderman

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Re: Impact of Rouble Crash on Russian Aerospace Industry Plans
« Reply #10 on: 12/03/2014 09:24 pm »


I'm going to try and word this in a non-political way, so take it as such.  Its just an understanding of the monies tied to oil.

One of the major monies tied to Oil is the USA dollar.    Russia has said it no longer wished to use the US dollar as the trading currency.  Has signed an agreement to move Oil monies to a new currency the Chinese yuan.

It will take a few years of this major transition.  The process good, or bad, leaves Russia's space program's future, in the hands of the Chinese yuan.


for better or worse, the Rouble has crashed against the Chinese Yuan, as well.

This financial downturn has nothing to do with a handful of oil contracts that are priced in Yuan, as opposed to against the dollar; in fact, Russia has previously priced contracts against the Euro.   The reality is that Russia's economy is in a sharp decline, similar to the US decline in 2008.

I am suggesting that expansion of the Russian space program in the context of this economic collapse is unlikely, and I am trying to determine what programs will be most impacted. In general, I see delays rather than outright cancellations as the most probable outcome, with the impacted programs those related to exploration or expansion of current capabilities, as opposed to ISS participation, or those programs that generate foreign revenues.

Offline Mark S

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Re: Impact of Rouble Crash on Russian Aerospace Industry Plans
« Reply #11 on: 12/03/2014 09:36 pm »
My guess is that we won't have to break out the trampoline to reach ISS after all.

Not that we were going to anyway. But Russia will probably be much more appreciative of the $70 million per seat for the next three years.

Offline Danderman

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Re: Impact of Rouble Crash on Russian Aerospace Industry Plans
« Reply #12 on: 12/05/2014 03:38 pm »
I would expect the flight of Orion to put some pressure on the politicians to show that they are making progress on a next generation spacecraft, but I wouldn't expect anything other than rhetoric, rather than announcing some advanced first launch date. Instead, I would expect the politicians to say that the next generation spacecraft will be flying Real Soon Now.



Offline fregate

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Re: Impact of Rouble Crash on Russian Aerospace Industry Plans
« Reply #13 on: 12/07/2014 12:42 am »
Do not underestimate internal Russian resources - if ROUBLE became weak it would be economically feasible to start production of certain components domestically rather than buy them from overseas suppliers. After Ukrainian conflict this year there is a state-wide program to replace import components by domestically produced ones it's call IMPORTREPLACEMENT :)  But I reluctantly have to agree that current financial situation probably would push back progress in Russian Space exploration program at least for few decades.   
« Last Edit: 12/07/2014 12:44 am by fregate »
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Offline Rocket Science

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Re: Impact of Rouble Crash on Russian Aerospace Industry Plans
« Reply #14 on: 12/07/2014 01:13 am »
As long as Russia remains a resource based economy it will never expand to meet its lofty goals. Even though it just inked a 400 Billion dollar over 30 year gas deal with China that may end up putting them in the red. Belt tightening could cause aerospace to be impacted by material/equipment shortages or quality control issues which may lead to increased launch failures like those already experienced in recent years...
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Offline Danderman

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Re: Impact of Rouble Crash on Russian Aerospace Industry Plans
« Reply #15 on: 12/08/2014 02:22 pm »
and so it begins ............................

Plummeting Rouble Hits Russia's Space Programme

http://www.newsweek.com/plummeting-rouble-hits-russias-space-programme-288301

Russia’s federal space exploration agency Roscosmos could be forced to close down or indefinitely delay whole projects due to the worsening economic situation in the country. The plummeting Russian rouble has rendered the agency incapable of planning their spending ahead of time, national daily newspaper Izvestia reported on Monday.

According to Izvestia, Russia’s Gonets satellite system, launched by the Ministry of Defence and intended to restore Russia’s status as a major aerospace power, may not meet its upcoming deadline for government funding from 2016 to 2025.

“Due to the complete unpredictability of prices in November the scientific engineering council was not able to reconcile anything concerning the orbital system of communication Gonets,” the anonymous source from the central strategic planning of Roscosmos told Izvestia.

Offline Prober

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Re: Impact of Rouble Crash on Russian Aerospace Industry Plans
« Reply #16 on: 12/12/2014 02:37 am »
and so it begins ............................

Plummeting Rouble Hits Russia's Space Programme

http://www.newsweek.com/plummeting-rouble-hits-russias-space-programme-288301

Russia’s federal space exploration agency Roscosmos could be forced to close down or indefinitely delay whole projects due to the worsening economic situation in the country. The plummeting Russian rouble has rendered the agency incapable of planning their spending ahead of time, national daily newspaper Izvestia reported on Monday.

According to Izvestia, Russia’s Gonets satellite system, launched by the Ministry of Defence and intended to restore Russia’s status as a major aerospace power, may not meet its upcoming deadline for government funding from 2016 to 2025.

“Due to the complete unpredictability of prices in November the scientific engineering council was not able to reconcile anything concerning the orbital system of communication Gonets,” the anonymous source from the central strategic planning of Roscosmos told Izvestia.

from that article:  “In February the one euro was 48 roubles, at the end of November it is 60 roubles. What will the exchange rate be in a year or two? We cannot afford to guess and we cannot estimate that. "

Todays drop (thurs.) Despite the rate rise, the ruble continued its slide. The currency broke above 55 rubles to the dollar for the first time ever as it struck its new all-time low of 55.80, a one-day decline of 1.5 percent. And against the euro, it was heading toward the 70 ruble threshold for the first time, hitting 69.14 rubles to the euro.
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Offline Prober

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Re: Impact of Rouble Crash on Russian Aerospace Industry Plans
« Reply #17 on: 12/15/2014 11:59 am »
Another article just hit 1hr ago....more new lows and this:

"Vedomosti further reported Monday that the government plans to cut budget spending by 10 percent in 2015. The cuts would impact transportation programmes as well as spending on space, aviation and development of the rar east, the report said."

I would read rar east as far east.

http://news.yahoo.com/ruble-hits-low-despite-interventions-111703875.html

Moscow (AFP) - The Russian ruble on Monday fell to new lows despite repeated interventions by the central bank to keep the national currency afloat.

"The ruble crumbled to 58.81 to the dollar and 73.23 to the euro after the Moscow Exchange opened Monday morning."
2017 - Everything Old is New Again.
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Offline IslandPlaya

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Re: Impact of Rouble Crash on Russian Aerospace Industry Plans
« Reply #18 on: 12/15/2014 09:52 pm »
Russian interest rate has just gone from 10.5% to 17%
Oh..
« Last Edit: 12/15/2014 09:52 pm by IslandPlaya »

Offline Prober

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Re: Impact of Rouble Crash on Russian Aerospace Industry Plans
« Reply #19 on: 12/16/2014 01:20 am »
Russian interest rate has just gone from 10.5% to 17%
Oh..

yep, and Russia is dipping into their stored Gold to shore up things.

Sadly, Russia could be heading into a repeat of 1930's Germany when wheel barrels of paper were needed just to purchase food.  There are some serious lessons from that time.
2017 - Everything Old is New Again.
"I fear all we have done is to awaken a sleeping giant..." --Isoroku Yamamoto

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