This thread is NOT about impact of souring East West relations on Russian aerospace, but rather, the impact of the current financial crisis in Russia caused by the oil glut on Russian aerospace.My feeling is that most of the announced increases in spending on space projects will never materialize.First launch from the Soyuz pad at Vostochny is probably going to be at the end of this decade, but the Angara pad will probably be five years late.You can forget the Soyuz replacement within the next 10 years, and HLV is a project for the 30s.Angara-5 will not, therefore, replace Proton for GSO launches for at least another 10 years, unless they are performed from Plesetsk.I would bet money that Progress launches will be reduced from 4 to 3 per year, within 2 years.No chance of a new Russian space station within 10 years. If MLM is announced to be flown as part of a new station rather than to ISS, it will never fly.Any program that generates foreign capital will continue unabated, unless the political environment prohibits it. For example, Dnepr flights will continue.Aerospace workers will not get significant raises, and the bifurcation of the industry into very old and very young workers will continue, along with a relatively high failure rate of equipment.
I would bet money that Progress launches will be reduced from 4 to 3 per year, within 2 years.
First launch from the Soyuz pad at Vostochny is probably going to be at the end of this decade, but the Angara pad will probably be five years late.
You can forget the Soyuz replacement within the next 10 years, and HLV is a project for the 30s.
Angara-5 will not, therefore, replace Proton for GSO launches for at least another 10 years, unless they are performed from Plesetsk.
Quote from: Danderman on 12/01/2014 07:57 pmI would bet money that Progress launches will be reduced from 4 to 3 per year, within 2 years.How much money are you willing to bet?To other points - all of that depends on a political will much more than on economics as all these projects are just peanuts financially speaking. As far as I know, there is currently huge political pressure to get A5 flying (at least from Plesetsk), and complete Soyuz pad at Vostochny, so these are almost certain to happen. As for the rest - we will see.
Quote from: Danderman on 12/01/2014 07:57 pmFirst launch from the Soyuz pad at Vostochny is probably going to be at the end of this decade, but the Angara pad will probably be five years late.This seems overly pessimistic. The pad appears to be half-done, and there is lots of prestige at play for Putin. I don't think it will take 4-5 years until the first launch.Quote from: Danderman on 12/01/2014 07:57 pmYou can forget the Soyuz replacement within the next 10 years, and HLV is a project for the 30s.The only Soyuz replacements in the pipeline are incremental Soyuz upgrades, and they should move ahead where funds allow. Soyuz 2-1v (no boosters, NK-33 engine) has already flown once, and the Soyuz 2-3 (2-1v with boosters) would be a low-cost upgrade that could be fielded if needed. Quote from: Danderman on 12/01/2014 07:57 pmAngara-5 will not, therefore, replace Proton for GSO launches for at least another 10 years, unless they are performed from Plesetsk.Well, it turns out that the first A5 launch (scheduled for the new few weeks) is taking a test payload to GTO, so it looks like the plan is to indeed perform some GSO missions from Plesetsk.I don't think the picture is as grim as you paint it. There is always a lot of powerpoint projects coming out of Russia, but that is nothing new. (nor is it limited to Russia)
The World is ending, oh no! I fail to understand the point in posting pure personal speculation, in light of rules that lead to the deletion of certain posts and threads while others evade the same fate, like this one.
Quote from: SIEP on 12/02/2014 08:53 pmThe World is ending, oh no! I fail to understand the point in posting pure personal speculation, in light of rules that lead to the deletion of certain posts and threads while others evade the same fate, like this one.I am not suggesting that the Russian space program is coming to an end due to the economic problems, only that a slowdown should be expected, which is contrary to the official story today.This thread is NOT about impact of souring East West relations on Russian aerospace, but rather, the impact of the current financial crisis in Russia caused by the oil glut on Russian aerospace.
I'm going to try and word this in a non-political way, so take it as such. Its just an understanding of the monies tied to oil.One of the major monies tied to Oil is the USA dollar. Russia has said it no longer wished to use the US dollar as the trading currency. Has signed an agreement to move Oil monies to a new currency the Chinese yuan.It will take a few years of this major transition. The process good, or bad, leaves Russia's space program's future, in the hands of the Chinese yuan.
and so it begins ............................Plummeting Rouble Hits Russia's Space Programmehttp://www.newsweek.com/plummeting-rouble-hits-russias-space-programme-288301Russia’s federal space exploration agency Roscosmos could be forced to close down or indefinitely delay whole projects due to the worsening economic situation in the country. The plummeting Russian rouble has rendered the agency incapable of planning their spending ahead of time, national daily newspaper Izvestia reported on Monday.According to Izvestia, Russia’s Gonets satellite system, launched by the Ministry of Defence and intended to restore Russia’s status as a major aerospace power, may not meet its upcoming deadline for government funding from 2016 to 2025.“Due to the complete unpredictability of prices in November the scientific engineering council was not able to reconcile anything concerning the orbital system of communication Gonets,” the anonymous source from the central strategic planning of Roscosmos told Izvestia.
Russian interest rate has just gone from 10.5% to 17%Oh..