Author Topic: Fobos-Grunt EOM Re-Entry Latest  (Read 230426 times)

Offline Lee Jay

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Re: Fobos-Grunt EOM Re-Entry Latest
« Reply #420 on: 02/04/2012 11:36 pm »
No discussion of the report? Or has everyone snuck off elsewhere?


How does Ted Molczan's analysis corroborate or contradict this report?  Is my interpretation of that analysis that the spacecraft prepped itself for TMI 11 separate times, each time failing to ignite the MPS correct or incorrect?

Offline edkyle99

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Re: Fobos-Grunt EOM Re-Entry Latest
« Reply #421 on: 02/05/2012 01:13 am »
Got an English translation that is readable?
What I am getting out of this clumsy translation is that the most likely underlying cause was some sort of failure of RAM modules due to cosmic charged particles, in other words electronics hardware which was not designed for spacecraft use.

Nor did software and systems appear to be designed to recover from single event upsets, which happen.  Perhaps they took shortcuts with the parking orbit phase?

 - Ed Kyle

Offline Stan Black

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Re: Fobos-Grunt EOM Re-Entry Latest
« Reply #422 on: 02/05/2012 07:26 am »
No discussion of the report? Or has everyone snuck off elsewhere?

I had hoped it would have gone further than it did. Most of the components were flight proven.

http://ofo.ikiweb.ru/en/p_phobos.php
http://www.npcap.ru/index.php?page_id=26
http://www.niimashspace.ru/2010-07-16-10-53-23/hiistory.html

I was reminded of the film Young Frankenstein - they gave it Abby Normal’s brain
« Last Edit: 02/05/2012 12:52 pm by Stan Black »

Offline JimO

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Re: Fobos-Grunt EOM Re-Entry Latest
« Reply #423 on: 02/17/2012 04:20 am »
Did Bad Memory Chips Down Russia’s Mars Probe?
Moscow blames radiation wreckage on an SRAM chip, but does it add up?
By James Oberg  /  February 2012
http://spectrum.ieee.org/aerospace/space-flight/did-bad-memory-chips-down-russias-mars-probe
   16 February 2012—The failure of Russia’s ambitious Phobos-Grunt sample-return probe has been shrouded in confusion and mystery, from the first inklings that something had gone wrong after its 9 November launch all the way to inconsistent reports of where it fell to Earth on 15 January. 

Offline Finn

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Re: Fobos-Grunt EOM Re-Entry Latest
« Reply #424 on: 02/17/2012 01:23 pm »
Did Bad Memory Chips Down Russia’s Mars Probe?
Moscow blames radiation wreckage on an SRAM chip, but does it add up?
By James Oberg  /  February 2012
http://spectrum.ieee.org/aerospace/space-flight/did-bad-memory-chips-down-russias-mars-probe
   16 February 2012—The failure of Russia’s ambitious Phobos-Grunt sample-return probe has been shrouded in confusion and mystery, from the first inklings that something had gone wrong after its 9 November launch all the way to inconsistent reports of where it fell to Earth on 15 January. 


Thanks, JimO, for a good read. Still rather mysterious ...  ???

Being a software engineer myself, I'd guess that things are very simple: too many bugs, too little testing.

Offline JimO

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Re: Fobos-Grunt EOM Re-Entry Latest
« Reply #425 on: 02/27/2012 01:30 pm »
Open issues with the official Phobos-Grunt accident report
by James Oberg, Monday, February 27, 2012
http://www.thespacereview.com/article/2035/1
   
   With the release in Moscow on February 3 of the summary report from the investigation commission for the Fobos-Grunt debacle, the story has dropped from the news. But that is a pity because the report itself shows it is by no means the end of the story of this heartbreaking Russian space setback. If the official cause of the failure—cosmic rays knocking out two separate computer circuits simultaneously—is not accurate, then remedial actions and get-well measures will be inappropriate and very possibly ineffective.

Offline JimO

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Re: Fobos-Grunt EOM Re-Entry Latest
« Reply #426 on: 03/01/2012 04:54 am »
Unless I'm really, really confused and deluded [which is really, really possible], something odd has happened.
 
The freewheeling discussion of Fobos-Grunt at NK has apparently stopped.
 
The thread devoted to the theme, at
http://www.novosti-kosmonavtiki.ru/phpBB2/viewtopic.php?t=10631&postdays=0&postorder=asc&start=15555&sid=604ac739ed3c0519a7db0d6d6e82b23f

 

had its last post on Feb 23, 2012 at 00:38, and apparently no more.

 

The general list of active threads does not appear to have any new one for discussion of Fobos-Grunt.

 

What am I missing, please?


Offline DFSL

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Re: Fobos-Grunt EOM Re-Entry Latest
« Reply #427 on: 03/01/2012 04:26 pm »
The last post in that thread says something like "this is finished. In case of new information, use the PMs"

Offline input~2

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« Last Edit: 03/12/2012 04:00 pm by input~2 »

Offline Comga

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Re: Fobos-Grunt EOM Re-Entry Latest
« Reply #429 on: 03/12/2012 08:22 pm »
A new approach to predicting spacecraft re-entry

"a probability distribution spanning about 20 minutes, with a mid-point within just a few minutes of the actual re-entry time."

How did they determine the "actual re-entry time"?  Does that mean that "other assets" observed the reentry, and the LLNL team was given access and was able to compare that observation to their post-facto estimate?
What kind of wastrels would dump a perfectly good booster in the ocean after just one use?

Offline olasek

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Re: Fobos-Grunt EOM Re-Entry Latest
« Reply #430 on: 03/12/2012 09:40 pm »
If the official cause of the failure—... is not accurate, then remedial actions and get-well measures will be inappropriate and very possibly ineffective.
And, is there any guarantee they will be effective even IF the report IS accurate?? I would hate to bet on it.

Offline JimO

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Re: Fobos-Grunt EOM Re-Entry Latest
« Reply #431 on: 03/13/2012 11:26 am »
And, is there any guarantee they will be effective even IF the report IS accurate?? I would hate to bet on it.

Actually, there is: the example of the Bulava project fiasco and its rescue.


Offline olasek

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Re: Fobos-Grunt EOM Re-Entry Latest
« Reply #432 on: 03/14/2012 12:32 am »
Actually, there is: the example of the Bulava project fiasco and its rescue.
First, this is a military project, not a spacecraft to Mars. Russians may have crude but working military hardware, their Martian hardware can't be classified as "crude but working" even by a super optimist.
Second, this is just an example, an example of success is no guarantee of next success.

Offline JimO

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Re: Fobos-Grunt EOM Re-Entry Latest
« Reply #433 on: 03/19/2012 02:48 pm »
Actually, there is: the example of the Bulava project fiasco and its rescue.
First, this is a military project, not a spacecraft to Mars. Russians may have crude but working military hardware, their Martian hardware can't be classified as "crude but working" even by a super optimist.
Second, this is just an example, an example of success is no guarantee of next success.

Since Bulava development was managed by Roskosmos, I figured they would share the lessons -- fabrication discipline was more the problem than any design issues.

Offline plutogno

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Re: Fobos-Grunt EOM Re-Entry Latest
« Reply #434 on: 03/31/2012 08:07 am »
I apologize for resurrecting the topic, but there is a round-up of the failure in Novosti Kosmonavtiki. it's in Russian, and I don't know whether it adds any more info
http://www.novosti-kosmonavtiki.ru/content/numbers/350/02.shtml

Offline Prober

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Re: Fobos-Grunt EOM Re-Entry Latest
« Reply #435 on: 11/26/2014 01:07 pm »
Looks like this mission is still taking its toll.

Russia and China to coordinate their space programs in early 2015   http://www.ruaviation.com/news/2014/11/26/2765/

In January 2015 Russian and Chinese scientists will approve the plan for cooperation in the area of space exploration, TASS reports with reference to Director of Space Research Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Lev Zeleniy.

“Last week we discussed plans for carrying out joint experiments with China with the director of similar institute. Both parties have a long list of suggested experiments comprising 15-20 ones. In January we will coordinate our programs at a meeting and make a single list,” Zeleniy said.

He noted that a great potential for cooperation with China has not been unlocked yet. In addition, the academician said that Chinese party does not trust the Russian colleagues due to failure of Fobos-Grunt mission in 2011 – the station was fitted with Chinese microsatellite.

“The Chinese colleagues blame us for this failure. They don’t trust us, because we didn’t treat them correctly in some situations,” Zeleniy explained.

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