Author Topic: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4  (Read 268155 times)

Offline baldusi

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #560 on: 02/23/2017 02:27 PM »
http://www.spacex.com/missions


Bigelow has a launch on a falcon 9???

It's been on their manifest since 2013 and we haven't heard anything about it since. Don't expect to see a Bigelow mission any time soon.

It has been on the manifest since something like 2006 when it was launching on a Falcon 5.
I can find the exact date if you wish.
It has continuously moved out as Bigelow's business plan has moved out with commercial crew.  There may have been a deposit put down but it's hardly defined.

I remember a video interview of Mr Bigelow where he stated that he had made a 50k deposit towards the launch of a Falcon 1 or 5. And when SpaceX suspended that they asked him if they could keep them and move the option to a Falcon 9. And he said yes, but he appeared not to really count on that launch.
I would not put it on the manifest, when and if they actually name a payload.

Offline Comga

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #561 on: 02/23/2017 02:47 PM »
http://www.spacex.com/missions


Bigelow has a launch on a falcon 9???

It's been on their manifest since 2013 and we haven't heard anything about it since. Don't expect to see a Bigelow mission any time soon.

It has been on the manifest since something like 2006 when it was launching on a Falcon 5.
I can find the exact date if you wish.
It has continuously moved out as Bigelow's business plan has moved out with commercial crew.  There may have been a deposit put down but it's hardly defined.

I remember a video interview of Mr Bigelow where he stated that he had made a 50k deposit towards the launch of a Falcon 1 or 5. And when SpaceX suspended that they asked him if they could keep them and move the option to a Falcon 9. And he said yes, but he appeared not to really count on that launch.
I would not put it on the manifest, when and if they actually name a payload.

Found it on the first line of my tally, from July of 2004:o
The projected launch date was Q4 2005.   :D
Launch was to be from Vandenberg.
But we should take any further discussion of this over to the Bigelow threads.
What kind of wastrels would dump a perfectly good booster in the ocean after just one use?

Online meberbs

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #562 on: 02/23/2017 02:50 PM »
Shotwell says at the press event at 39A before CRS-10 that Falcon Heavy won't launch until SLC-40 is back online. Further says, FH is NET mid-year. 
(Snip)

Other FH news from the same event:
Red Dragon on FH is officially 2020.


All other Red Dragon missions in first post are just speculations and should also be removed.

It may not be on the official SpaceX manifest, but Musk has made it pretty clear that the plan is to send at least one Dragon to Mars every synod.

"Elon: The basic gameplan is that we're going to send a mission to Mars with every opportunity from 2018 onwards."

https://live.theverge.com/elon-musk-tesla-ceo-code-conference-2016-live-blog/

But according to this:
http://www.spacex.com/sites/spacex/files/mars_presentation.pdf
page 47, there are only two opportunity for Red Dragon: 2018 and 2020.
From 2022 only ITS should fly.

Let's say Red Dragon 2018 is no longer planned and everything slips by 2 years, Red Dragon should still only fly in 2020 and 2022 and ITS by 2024.

Anyway once ITS is operational Red Dragon should no longer fly.

So:
* move Red Dragon (1) to 2020
* remove Red Dragon 5 -> 7
* possibly remove Red Dragon 2 and 3 or reschedule them to 2022 and also move ITS to 2024
Although ITS will almost certainly be delayed from the best case schedule (and they said as much when they presented it) it hasn't been officially delayed yet. They have also said they will keep launching Red Dragons even after ITS is operational. See here.

Online FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #563 on: 02/23/2017 08:32 PM »
Quote
Industry official: @SpaceX has 7 launches from mid-March (EchoStar 23) to mid-June (@IridiumComm Next No. 2).

https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/834877195021615108

Offline gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #564 on: 02/23/2017 10:25 PM »
Space Intel Report: Iridium says 2nd-generation satellites working flawlessly as financial challenges approach
Quote
One industry official said SpaceX was juggling a long list of customers who are anxious to launch, and that the company has planned six campaigns from its Florida spaceport before proceeding with the Iridium launch from Vandenberg Air Force Base, California.

Upcoming launches include the EchoStar 23 ... a SpaceX Dragon supply freighter ... SES-10 ... Intelsat 35e ... and the U.S. National Reconnaissance Office’s NROL-76.

An NRO spokeswoman on Feb. 16 said the satellite’s launch date had yet to be determined.

Offline starhawk92

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #565 on: 02/24/2017 12:45 PM »
So, apparently it is time for a level-set, everyone seems confused so hopefully this will clear things up.

I started this list to track, first and foremost, REUSE.  This is the innovation that SpaceX is using to change the industry.  So the BOOST column, which is a word chosen by me, is a sequential number I give to each flight since, when we started, there was no really good number to use for "labelling" boosters.  So, yes, BOOST means nothing outside of the manifest list.  To repeat, the BOOST number is fabricated by me and me alone.

That is why the SES-10 list has a BOOST with 23-1 next to it (first reuse of the booster which was used with BOOST of 23).  This provides the history of the stage, and is traceable back through it's working life.  This was the goal.

The manifest is long and includes everything we know, or are pretty sure about from those who frequent the forums and have true industry insight (which I DO NOT).  If we had a sliding time window or some sort of grade on quality of the information then we would be endlessly talking about what meets what criteria and how.  The only way to avoid that is to keep it open for everything.  There are plenty of smarts who visit here to keep the quality at a great level.

The Mars dates (and any Mars speculation) goes on the manifest because IT IS AWESOME TO TALK ABOUT GOING TO MARS.  No discussion on the matter.  The dates listed are the appropriate windows as determined by people who understand it.  They are not coming off until one year (or 10 launches) after they pass.

I am currently messing with getting the information straight to track reuse for Heavy.  As usual, there have been some great recommendations so far.  It'll get sorted soon.

To use this most effectively, assume the stuff above the dotted line has happened and the stuff below the line has not; assume the top 1 or two items below the line are what Chris B. has told us is coming next (since he knows everybody), and the next 2 or 3 are based on people who know who share their information here.  From about 5 below the line down the rest of the page is NOT RELIABLE.  However, it does give a look at work SpaceX has lined up and important milestones and the pressure against them.   And it tracks reusablility -- which was the original point anyway.

Offline neoforce

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #566 on: 02/24/2017 03:46 PM »
Starhawk:

Thanks for this list, i really appreciate the work you do on it and I review it often.  As far as I'm concerned, it is your list to set up as you see fit. 

the BOOST column, which is a word chosen by me, is a sequential number I give to each flight since, when we started, there was no really good number to use for "labelling" boosters.  So, yes, BOOST means nothing outside of the manifest list.  To repeat, the BOOST number is fabricated by me and me alone.

I now understand this definition.  I know I have been confused about this term in the past.   You may want to make a note of that definition at the bottom of the first posting, since at some point your post here will get lost in the middle of a long thread.

I do think there is a potential for confusion.  As you said, when you started there was no good number to use for labeling the boosters.  But now SpaceX is showing bold number on every booster.  So people might get confused:

NET DATE    BOOST         FLT 
----------  -----------   --- 
2017-01-14  F9(30)        030  Pictures have shown the number 29 on this booster
2017-02-19  F9(31)        032  Pictures have shown the number 31 on this booster
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2017-03-12  F9(32)        031  I think pictures will show 30 on this booster

Pity that SpaceX waited until 2017 to put those numbers on there or this wouldn't have been a problem!
« Last Edit: 02/24/2017 03:48 PM by neoforce »

Online Jakusb

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #567 on: 02/24/2017 03:48 PM »
First of all: really appreciate this manifest! Thanks!!
Quick suggestion:
As people really like to have the CoreNr included, maybe add that as a separate column.
This info should now always be available to us  as SpaceX  paints the CoreNr since last 2 launches between the legs for everyone to see.
So recap of my suggestion:
- add CORENR and have it reflect the CoreNr as painted between legs. With reuse number added in case of reuse
- rename BOOST to SEQNR and make it r eflect actual order of launch and drop the reuse of
- SEQNR can be empty to add a * to it to indicate a estimated seqnr.
- have separate seqnr for F9 and FH
- CORENR can be empty where unknown (only older flights) and add * where not totally sure (yet), but best guess or expectation
- CORENR could also be shortened to CNR or C#. Potentially the 10 could be omitted (23 instead of 1023) but that would make it more confuse with SEQNR
See if you like it. It is just a suggestion. ;)

Offline rockets4life97

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #568 on: 02/24/2017 04:42 PM »
I'm not sure that the manifest needs to track the FCC numbers (currently in the FLT column). There is little deviation from the sequence numbers (as Jakusb explains).

Offline jpo234

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #569 on: 02/27/2017 09:59 PM »
You have a new entry for Q4 2018.
« Last Edit: 02/27/2017 09:59 PM by jpo234 »
You want to be inspired by things. You want to wake up in the morning and think the future is going to be great. That's what being a spacefaring civilization is all about. It's about believing in the future and believing the future will be better than the past. And I can't think of anything more exciting than being out there among the stars.

Offline CorvusCorax

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #570 on: 02/28/2017 01:11 PM »
You have a new entry for Q4 2018.

or rather "NET Q4 2018" ;)

Offline rockets4life97

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #571 on: 02/28/2017 02:53 PM »
You have a new entry for Q4 2018.

or rather "NET Q4 2018" ;)

All the dates on the table are NET. :-)

Offline neoforce

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #572 on: 02/28/2017 05:13 PM »
You have a new entry for Q4 2018.

or rather "NET Q4 2018" ;)

All the dates on the table are NET. :-)

I agree they are all NET... and as a reminder of what Starhawk said up thread about Mars:

The Mars dates (and any Mars speculation) goes on the manifest because IT IS AWESOME TO TALK ABOUT GOING TO MARS.  No discussion on the matter.  The dates listed are the appropriate windows as determined by people who understand it.  They are not coming off until one year (or 10 launches) after they pass.

For that same reason, I'm sure he will add the lunar tourist flight when he gets to it.  Those are also AWESOME!!  :-)

Offline gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #573 on: 02/28/2017 05:16 PM »
Actually the dates aren't really NET, they're a reasonable current guess based on the publicly available information we have to work with.  Any of them could move to the left or right.  Moves to the right are just far more common.

Offline oldAtlas_Eguy

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #574 on: 03/01/2017 12:15 AM »
Current info is NET 4Q 2018.

Also I would call it "Lunar Crew Dragon" because whether it is a tourist or a NASA flight it is still a Lunar Crew Dragon flight.

The final item is that at this point there is only 1 mission and scheduling for more will have to wait.

Offline smoliarm

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #575 on: 03/04/2017 09:47 PM »
New launch contract for SpaceX:
Spanish satellite PAZ, which was originally scheduled for launch on Dnepr, now will be launched with SpaceX
http://www.infoespacial.com/mundo/2017/02/27/noticia-empresa-spacex-lanzara-satelite-espanol.html
(in Spanish)
There is a similar article at "Deutsche Welle", but in Russian...
In a nutshell:
* Hisdesat has canceled the contract with Kosmotras;
* They seek to recover $15 M via *Tribunal de Arbitraje de París*;
* They signed a contract with SpaceX for a launch by the end of 2017...

As I understand, PAZ is going to polar orbit, so it's a VAFB launch.
Also,
"With a total mass of around 1350 kg, the satellite is 5 m in length and 2.4 m in diameter."
https://directory.eoportal.org/web/eoportal/satellite-missions/p/paz
So, may be it is a rideshare. With FormoSat-5 ?

Offline gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #576 on: 03/05/2017 03:45 AM »
New launch contract for SpaceX:
Spanish satellite PAZ, which was originally scheduled for launch on Dnepr, now will be launched with SpaceX
http://www.infoespacial.com/mundo/2017/02/27/noticia-empresa-spacex-lanzara-satelite-espanol.html
(in Spanish)
There is a similar article at "Deutsche Welle", but in Russian...
In a nutshell:
* Hisdesat has canceled the contract with Kosmotras;
* They seek to recover $15 M via *Tribunal de Arbitraje de París*;
* They signed a contract with SpaceX for a launch by the end of 2017...

As I understand, PAZ is going to polar orbit, so it's a VAFB launch.
Also,
"With a total mass of around 1350 kg, the satellite is 5 m in length and 2.4 m in diameter."
https://directory.eoportal.org/web/eoportal/satellite-missions/p/paz
So, may be it is a rideshare. With FormoSat-5 ?

A rideshare would make sense for this if they really think it's going to launch in 2017.  I found a couple pdf files about the satellite on the company web site (they're in Spanish).

Online SmallKing

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #577 on: 03/05/2017 03:52 AM »
New launch contract for SpaceX:
Spanish satellite PAZ, which was originally scheduled for launch on Dnepr, now will be launched with SpaceX
http://www.infoespacial.com/mundo/2017/02/27/noticia-empresa-spacex-lanzara-satelite-espanol.html
(in Spanish)
There is a similar article at "Deutsche Welle", but in Russian...
In a nutshell:
* Hisdesat has canceled the contract with Kosmotras;
* They seek to recover $15 M via *Tribunal de Arbitraje de París*;
* They signed a contract with SpaceX for a launch by the end of 2017...

As I understand, PAZ is going to polar orbit, so it's a VAFB launch.
Also,
"With a total mass of around 1350 kg, the satellite is 5 m in length and 2.4 m in diameter."
https://directory.eoportal.org/web/eoportal/satellite-missions/p/paz
So, may be it is a rideshare. With FormoSat-5 ?
Must be SSO-A mission
Some are bound for happiness, some are bound to glory, some are bound to live with less, who can tell your story?

Offline Raul

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #578 on: 03/05/2017 07:28 PM »
F9-35 mission is changed to "SpaceX Mission 1363" in modified FCC application. A commercial (non GTO) launch from Complex 39a.
And last FCC application with Same Requested Period of Operation refers about LZ-1 booster landing.

So what could mean mission 1363 and which mission it could be? NROL-76 ?

Online FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #579 on: 03/07/2017 12:26 PM »
Quote
Hisdesat: We dont yet know the ID of our co-passenger for late-2017 @SpaceX launch of our Paz radar sat into polar LEO from VAFB.#SATShow

https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/839102717591158784

Edit: earlier tweet from Peter

Quote
Hisdesat moving Paz sat to @SpaceX follows @IridiumComm move from Dnepr to Falcon 9 for same reason. IRDM also left, maybe lost, big deposit

https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/839072751809884160
« Last Edit: 03/07/2017 12:28 PM by FutureSpaceTourist »

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