Poll

Will Mars One Succeed in Their Goal of Landing Humans on Mars?

Yes
Yes, but not by 2023
No

Author Topic: Will Mars One Succeed in Their Goal of Landing Humans on Mars?  (Read 66229 times)

Offline JohnFornaro

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Answering Hernalt's last question:  No.
Sometimes I just flat out don't get it.

Offline SpacexULA

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I can't help but think that once Falcon Heavy is online we are going to see a lot more Mars One type projects.  I don't think Mars One by itself will make it to Mars, but I could absolutely see them as one of the investors in a first commercial mission to Mars.

I still think the dream situation is 2-3 separate programs all going to Mars, but all agreeing to set up base in the same crater.  All sharing logistics, power, communications, and transport

I voted post 2023

No Bucks no Buck Rogers, but at least Flexible path gets you Twiki.

Offline QuantumG

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A few years ago I was fond of saying: only Bob Zubrin thinks you can go all the way to Mars in a capsule, we need spaceships. The pendulum has swung back to his brand of crazy for the moment with catchphrases like "iron men in wooden ships". Well, that's about to change. I think Elon will get around to announcing MCT this year or next and all these over-the-falls-in-a-barrel Mars plans will be quietly swept under the rug.
Human spaceflight is basically just LARPing now.

Offline ClaytonBirchenough

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A few years ago I was fond of saying: only Bob Zubrin thinks you can go all the way to Mars in a capsule, we need spaceships. The pendulum has swung back to his brand of crazy for the moment with catchphrases like "iron men in wooden ships". Well, that's about to change. I think Elon will get around to announcing MCT this year or next and all these over-the-falls-in-a-barrel Mars plans will be quietly swept under the rug.


What's your reasoning for thinking Elon will announce MCT in the near future? Was MCT ever confirmed to have something to do with Mars?
Clayton Birchenough

Offline go4mars

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Elasmotherium; hurlyburly Doggerlandic Jentilak steeds insouciantly gallop in viridescent taiga, eluding deluginal Burckle's abyssal excavation.

Offline QuantumG

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Apparently MCT = Mars Colonial Transport is attributable to Tom Mueller (SpaceX propulsion chief). No video of him saying it unfortunately.
Human spaceflight is basically just LARPing now.

Online Lar

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Nice one. I'm so glad I wasn't drinking coke while reading that or you'd owe me a new keyboard ;)

He'd not owe you a new keyboard in any case... Just as there is no inherent right not to be insulted, there is also no inherent right not to be amused at the inappropriate time. You're a good libertarian, you know that. [1]

Me, I just really do not understand the economic model of Mars One, unless it is in fact as John F surmises, merely a vehicle for grantseeking... So I voted Not Ever.

I do think that one way missions are how things probably will go, but not these guys.

1 - I know, I know, comedic effect requires claiming damages from cola snorting (or desnorting)
« Last Edit: 03/25/2013 11:07 pm by Lar »
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Offline QuantumG

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1 - I know, I know, comedic effect requires claiming damages from cola snorting (or desnorting)

Also, I drink Diet Coke which doesn't ruin keyboards. Neither does it attract ants, so I can't even use an Archer reference.

What were we talking about?


Human spaceflight is basically just LARPing now.

Offline ClaytonBirchenough

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Apparently MCT = Mars Colonial Transport is attributable to Tom Mueller (SpaceX propulsion chief). No video of him saying it unfortunately.


That is very interesting. If Elon started a Mars program, he would truly have the credibility to follow through!
Clayton Birchenough

Offline QuantumG

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That is very interesting. If Elon started a Mars program, he would truly have the credibility to follow through!

Depending on your definition of "Mars program", he already has.. or he never will. As far as I'm aware, he still plans to get NASA (and perhaps others) to pay for it.
Human spaceflight is basically just LARPing now.

Offline Robert Thompson

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...but the foorth Dragon stayed uup.

Offline JohnFornaro

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I can't help but think that once Falcon Heavy is online we are going to see a lot more Mars One type projects.  I don't think Mars One by itself will make it to Mars, but I could absolutely see them as one of the investors in a first commercial mission to Mars.

I think it's doubtful.  They are a foundation.  The only investments that typical foundations make is for income purposes, not for capital appreciation.
Sometimes I just flat out don't get it.

Offline JohnFornaro

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...comedic effect requires claiming damages from...

Coffee can be used, as well as tea.  Presumably any liquid could  cause damage.  Another area of injury is the imprintation of F5 thru F8 on the forehead.
Sometimes I just flat out don't get it.

Offline ChrisWilson68

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While I'm rootin' for Mars One, I'm pretty skeptical they will actually succeed. Just wanted to see what everyone else was thinking...

I think there is virtually no chance they'll get enough money to succeed.

Offline ChrisWilson68

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Does anyone at Mars One actually watch reality TV?

Reality TV is all about conflict.  The producers make sure the cast is full of people who have trouble getting along with each other.  People who can quietly get along with each other are far too boring for reality TV.

Successful reality TV also depends on having enough people in the cast to keep the drama fresh by having conflicts between different sets of people.  Even if they got four completely crazy people to send to Mars, it wouldn't be enough to hold anyone's interest for more than a few weeks.

Any group of people who could actually succeed on a pioneering Mars mission would be far too boring to get even enough viewers for two episodes.

An audience would tune in for a few key moments -- the actual landing, arrival in Mars orbit, and lift-off.  Those three moments aren't enough to pay for the mission.  The money TV would bring in is about two orders of magnitude less than even the most optimistic mission cost projections.

Offline QuantumG

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Not all reality tv is like that. Some of it is simply "we're doing stuff you wish you could do". Monster Garage and Comic Book Men come to mind, but there's dozens of others.

Not that, you know, I watch any reality tv if I can help it :)
Human spaceflight is basically just LARPing now.

Offline ChrisWilson68

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Not all reality tv is like that. Some of it is simply "we're doing stuff you wish you could do". Monster Garage and Comic Book Men come to mind, but there's dozens of others.

Not that, you know, I watch any reality tv if I can help it :)


And don't forget Junkyard Wars.

But compare the ratings of The Bachelor or Survivor with those of Monster Garage.  The vast majority of the viewing audience for reality TV is watching shows filled with interpersonal conflict.

And even Monster Garage had a new set of people every week.  Monster Garage also had a fresh, visually stimulating project to build every week.  That's not exactly the same as watching the same four people in the same small chamber week after week doing exactly the same thing.

Offline QuantumG

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And even Monster Garage had a new set of people every week.  Monster Garage also had a fresh, visually stimulating project to build every week.  That's not exactly the same as watching the same four people in the same small chamber week after week doing exactly the same thing.

Building a whole planetary civilization isn't enough to do?
Human spaceflight is basically just LARPing now.

Online Lar

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And even Monster Garage had a new set of people every week.  Monster Garage also had a fresh, visually stimulating project to build every week.  That's not exactly the same as watching the same four people in the same small chamber week after week doing exactly the same thing.

Building a whole planetary civilization isn't enough to do?


It takes a long time to get to mars. By then everyone will be bored.
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Offline ChrisWilson68

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And even Monster Garage had a new set of people every week.  Monster Garage also had a fresh, visually stimulating project to build every week.  That's not exactly the same as watching the same four people in the same small chamber week after week doing exactly the same thing.

Building a whole planetary civilization isn't enough to do?


It takes a long time to get to mars. By then everyone will be bored.

My feelings exactly.  The pace is just too slow to keep enough viewers to come anywhere close to funding this program.

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