Quote from: William Barton on 02/12/2009 08:34 pmNobody ever lost a bet by underestimating the stupidity and short-sightedness of American politicians.Wouldn't that be the other way around?
Nobody ever lost a bet by underestimating the stupidity and short-sightedness of American politicians.
Quote from: nomadd22 on 02/12/2009 08:43 pmQuote from: William Barton on 02/12/2009 08:34 pmNobody ever lost a bet by underestimating the stupidity and short-sightedness of American politicians.Wouldn't that be the other way around?And BTW, politicians of any other country are no better.
SpaceX are claiming COTS-D will take 2 years, slip that to 3 years plus start in the new financial year in September. We then end up in a presidential election year. Interesting. Can any one think of a new manned LEO mission that Obama may wish to claim credit for? (I.E. fund via NASA.)
Orion is in some sense dangling by a political thread. Constellation can be cancelled by the stroke of a pen, and I suspect any serious malf on Ares I-X would trigger just that. Dragon has at least limited ability to survive anything other than Musk going bankrupt. I suspect without COTS-D funding, manned Dragon will never materialize, and cargo Dragon would probably stop if the US withdrew from ISS, since it has nowhere else to go. I don't think we'll quit ISS before 2016, but you never know.
BTW: Has anybody else gotten an email this week from spacex requesting help lobbying congress on COTS-D?
Can any one think of a new manned LEO mission that Obama may wish to claim credit for? (I.E. fund via NASA.)
Quote from: William Barton on 02/12/2009 07:46 pmOrion is in some sense dangling by a political thread. Constellation can be cancelled by the stroke of a pen, and I suspect any serious malf on Ares I-X would trigger just that. Dragon has at least limited ability to survive anything other than Musk going bankrupt. I suspect without COTS-D funding, manned Dragon will never materialize, and cargo Dragon would probably stop if the US withdrew from ISS, since it has nowhere else to go. I don't think we'll quit ISS before 2016, but you never know. Musk is not hinging on NASA funding as the be all end all of the SpaceX program. Its good business to have, and Dragon will be a far more affordable option for ISS development than Orion OR Shuttle. If Obama extends shuttle more, you can bet the GOP is going to skewer him over it when there is Dragon available. Provided Bigelow puts up Sundancer, there will be more traffic going there for Dragon than ISS. Tourist astronauts will not be prepared for long duration stays, so there would be a lot more short duration trips.BTW: Has anybody else gotten an email this week from spacex requesting help lobbying congress on COTS-D?
Is the $1.5B cost for a manned Falcon 9 realistic? If it was that cheap, ESA would have already manned their Ariane 5. My understanding is that they are hesitating because of the important costs involved.
If it was that cheap, ESA would have already manned their Ariane 5. My understanding is that they are hesitating because of the important costs involved.
They are also hesitating because several of the major ESA member states are extremely unwilling to have anything to do with manned spaceflight. I'd be surprised if they agreed to fund anything that would lead towards that (such as manrating Ariane), without a 180deg break with current policy.
Quote from: MichaelF on 02/15/2009 08:50 pmThey are also hesitating because several of the major ESA member states are extremely unwilling to have anything to do with manned spaceflight. I'd be surprised if they agreed to fund anything that would lead towards that (such as manrating Ariane), without a 180deg break with current policy.I know the UK for one is against manned spaceflight. Do you know which additional countries oppose it? You no doubt know this, but it may be useful to note that the ESA has both mandatory and optional programs. Member states can decide which programs to "subscribe" to.
Germany, France and Italy all objected to the manned portions of the Aurora program.
Musk is not hinging on NASA funding as the be all end all of the SpaceX program. Its good business to have, and Dragon will be a far more affordable option for ISS development than Orion OR Shuttle.
it's clear NASA funding is a huge part of their path forward.