Author Topic: China's future space station/human lunar plans  (Read 12043 times)

Online Blackstar

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China's future space station/human lunar plans
« on: 10/13/2008 02:22 pm »
http://www.thespacereview.com/article/1231/1

"Just as interesting as the words in the presentation are the images, which appear to show for the first time both what may be the Tiangong spacecraft, and an early plan for the multi-module space station that China wants to develop by 2020. The Tiangong module appears to be somewhat akin to the European Space Agency’s Jules Verne Advanced Transfer Vehicle, a pressurized module that could provide supplies to keep a Shenzhou in orbit for perhaps a few weeks. The multi-module space station consists of three large modules mounted around a central hub, with a Shenzhou parked at one of the hub’s docking ports, and what appears to be a module similar to that shown in a previous slide as the docking target—possibly the Tiangong, similar to the Russian Mir space station configuration. Thus, it seems possible that China’s goal is to use the Tiangong to support extended duration Shenzhou missions in the early part of the decade and later to provide logistics support to the multi-module space station. If so, this is a logical stepping-stone approach."


Offline beb

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Re: China's future space station/human lunar plans
« Reply #1 on: 10/13/2008 04:29 pm »
Just out of curiosity, but how many modules could be daisey-chained to a central module?

Offline khallow

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Re: China's future space station/human lunar plans
« Reply #2 on: 10/13/2008 05:31 pm »
I guess each joint would be a place for air to leak. A long flexible rod has severe vibration issues. And if you make it long enough, you have to worry about gravitational tidal forces.

In theory there's no physical reason that you couldn't make a chain loop that extends completely around the Earth in a giant ring around 27,000 miles in diameter. But it would require thrust systems on each part of to dampen vibration (especially the input from tidal forces of the Sun and Moon) and counter air resistance.

I see NASA came up with the Chinese lunar landing CONOPS (Concept of Operations). A picture is definitely worth a thousand words here. If I guess right, it's a mission sketch using 4 CZ-5 launches to get two components a lunar lander and a Shenzhou capsule and the two respective booster engines (and propellant) which are attached in LEO.

I guess it also illustrates why the myths about China's lunar plans are so prevalent and attractive. With the development of the CZ-5 and assembly of their first space station, the only missing pieces of that scheme (at least on the lower half) will be development of the lunar lander and the "TLI" boosters. In other words, once the launch vehicle is developed and China has some experience with orbital docking (both manned and unmanned dockings will be required to construct the first space station, so I gather), then it has most of the experience and infrastructure in place to start doing manned activities around the Moon.
Karl Hallowell

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Re: China's future space station/human lunar plans
« Reply #3 on: 10/13/2008 05:44 pm »
"Pace mentioned that a 2008 paper titled “Research on the Technical Approach of Manned Lunar Mission” (in Chinese) was prepared by Long Lehao, of the Chinese Academy of Launch Vehicle Technology, and Rong Yi, of the Beijing Institute of Space System Engineering. They identified four different approaches to the Moon, most of which require multiple launches of Long March 5 boosters. Two of the methods would require three launches.

Pace noted that Lehao is the developer of the Long March 5 and therefore inclined to underemphasize the difficulty of the task. NASA has also developed a notional concept of how China might conduct a human lunar mission and in NASA’s estimation it will require four Long March 5 launches, not three. The first launch would carry a translunar injection (TLI) stage into low Earth orbit. It would be followed by the unmanned lunar landing vehicle, which would automatically dock with the TLI stage and head to the Moon. They would be followed by another TLI stage and then a Shenzhou vehicle which would also rendezvous in low Earth orbit before heading to the Moon. In lunar orbit the Shenzhou would rendezvous with the lunar lander and two astronauts would descend to the Moon’s surface. They would later rendezvous with the Shenzhou and return to Earth. Four launches and four rendezvous events would entail a significant amount of risk, especially for a country with such limited human spaceflight experience. In its current approach to returning humans to the Moon, NASA has sought to minimize the number of launches and rendezvous events."


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Re: China's future space station/human lunar plans
« Reply #4 on: 10/13/2008 05:47 pm »
With the development of the CZ-5 and assembly of their first space station, the only missing pieces of that scheme (at least on the lower half) will be development of the lunar lander and the "TLI" boosters.

I wouldn't undersell this.  The lunar lander is a difficult thing to build.  Also, the TLI boosters, while theoretically easy, require new methods of operations not yet developed by anybody for cryogenics (no other country has stored large amounts of cryos in orbit for even the few days necessary).  Integration would also be a challenge.

Offline hektor

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Re: China's future space station/human lunar plans
« Reply #5 on: 10/13/2008 05:53 pm »
The studies performed by ESA have shown that a lunar mission based on Ariane 5/EELV/CZ-5 class launcher is not practical.

You need at least a 50 ton to LEO capability to achieve human flight to the Moon.

Offline Eerie

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Re: China's future space station/human lunar plans
« Reply #6 on: 10/13/2008 06:02 pm »
So, judging by the picture, China is going to "copy" the whole Soviet space program?

Soyuz-->Salut-->Mir.

I hope they won`t try to build a Buran next.

Offline Eerie

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Re: China's future space station/human lunar plans
« Reply #7 on: 10/13/2008 06:03 pm »
The studies performed by ESA have shown that a lunar mission based on Ariane 5/EELV/CZ-5 class launcher is not practical.

You need at least a 50 ton to LEO capability to achieve human flight to the Moon.

Comparing to the cost of what? Saturn 5? Ares V?

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Re: China's future space station/human lunar plans
« Reply #8 on: 10/13/2008 08:14 pm »
So, judging by the picture, China is going to "copy" the whole Soviet space program?

Soyuz-->Salut-->Mir.

What's wrong with that?  If the program is resource-constrained, then a stepping-stone approach seems to make a lot of sense.  Just add capabilities as you can afford them.

Offline Eerie

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Re: China's future space station/human lunar plans
« Reply #9 on: 10/13/2008 08:22 pm »
What's wrong with that?  If the program is resource-constrained, then a stepping-stone approach seems to make a lot of sense.  Just add capabilities as you can afford them.

Where did I say there was something wrong with that? If you can copy, why bothering inventing the bike?

It`s just that they are going to run out of the Soviet program fairly soon. I wonder what they will do then.

Offline Adama

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Re: China's future space station/human lunar plans
« Reply #10 on: 10/13/2008 08:30 pm »
It`s just that they are going to run out of the Soviet program fairly soon. I wonder what they will do then.

Fly tourists...

Offline Eerie

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Re: China's future space station/human lunar plans
« Reply #11 on: 10/13/2008 08:39 pm »
Fly tourists...

They can do it already.

Online Blackstar

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Re: China's future space station/human lunar plans
« Reply #12 on: 10/13/2008 09:48 pm »

It`s just that they are going to run out of the Soviet program fairly soon.

Fifteen years from now.

Offline Eerie

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Re: China's future space station/human lunar plans
« Reply #13 on: 10/13/2008 10:35 pm »

Fifteen years from now.

Faster than the soviets...

Offline CuddlyRocket

Re: China's future space station/human lunar plans
« Reply #14 on: 10/14/2008 03:29 am »
I'm sure the Chinese would like to send humans to the Moon; to orbit it at least. One of the main motivations of their program to the Chinese leadership seems to be prestige and demonstration of technical prowess - if they manage it they will be only the second nation to have sent men to the Moon, and possibly the only one with a then-current capability.

I don't see any particular reason why they couldn't do this in advance of NASA's current timeline.

Offline darklighter

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Re: China's future space station/human lunar plans
« Reply #15 on: 10/14/2008 04:20 am »
Despite of what this thespacereview.com article says, the mentioned Long Lehao, Rong Yi 2008 paper clearly stated a minimum of 6 LM-5 launches are required for a manned lunar landing mission and is obviously an unfavorable approach. To lower the launch numbers, larger launchers are necessary. Their conclusion is based on an estimated weight of 15t of the lunar-access-module and another 15t of a manned space craft with habitation and service modules. (In their scenarios, most of the service module's propellant is for trans-earth-insertion from lunar orbit, other major maneuvers are carried out by independent stages.)

I'm not sure what exactly are the launchers in the CONOPS. If they are original LM-5s, then this CONOPS overestimated LM-5's capability, or it is a mission of lesser scale than Long Lehao & Rong Yi planned in their paper.
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Online Blackstar

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Re: China's future space station/human lunar plans
« Reply #16 on: 10/14/2008 12:46 pm »
Despite of what this thespacereview.com article says, the mentioned Long Lehao, Rong Yi 2008 paper clearly stated a minimum of 6 LM-5 launches are required for a manned lunar landing mission and is obviously an unfavorable approach.

For the information from the Lehao paper, the article cited Pace's presentation, which is included in the article (see the link).  Do you have a copy of the Lehao paper that you can post?

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Re: China's future space station/human lunar plans
« Reply #17 on: 10/14/2008 12:49 pm »
I'm sure the Chinese would like to send humans to the Moon; to orbit it at least.

Everybody would like to do something.  I'd like to be invisible, and capable of flight.  Alas, that's only allowed in the movies...

The issue is what are their stated plans?  Their stated plans are a multi-module space station by the end of next decade.  My guess is that although their space officials would like to do a lunar mission, they have been told by the government leadership that they have to do the space station first.  The Chinese space program also appears to have a logical progression and they will learn a lot of things developing a space station that will be useful for an eventual lunar mission (like rendezvous and docking, long-duration operations, etc.).

Offline iamlucky13

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Re: China's future space station/human lunar plans
« Reply #18 on: 10/14/2008 06:43 pm »
So, judging by the picture, China is going to "copy" the whole Soviet space program?

Soyuz-->Salut-->Mir.

I hope they won`t try to build a Buran next.

Bah! Don't tell me you wouldn't love to see a Buran fly again.

The core of that proposed station looks fundamentally similar to the Zvezda or the core of the Mir. Of course it's a sensible. Put up the largest piece you can fit on a 25 ton launch and build on to it. Further down in the article is a rendering of a "simple space station." This looks quite similar to the two modules hanging off the sides of the core in the rendering of the big station, but with either an expanded service module or a purpose-built interface rather than a docking port for an additional module, perhaps similar in purpose to the ISS truss.

So it definitely looks like they're trying to plan architectures they can continue to use down the road.

Despite my tendency to think of us as "competing" with the Chinese, it could be exciting to watch this develop.

Offline Eerie

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Re: China's future space station/human lunar plans
« Reply #19 on: 10/14/2008 06:54 pm »
Bah! Don't tell me you wouldn't love to see a Buran fly again.

Absolutely not. We don`t need a third copy of a white flying elephant.

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