If ships get 100 reuses and boosters get 1000, then to get 1000 flights per year on average (and both numbers include hull losses), they need 1 BFB per year and 10 BFSes per year. 111 Raptors per year.

Pretty easy math.

I suspect early numbers will be a factor of 10 worse, so again like 1 BFB per year (3 a year at first to fill out launch sites and provide spares) and 10 BFSes, for a total of 100 flights per year, which is about what they need if the constellation works out well.

It's possible they'll need more launches if they make the constellation satellites much bigger.

So SpaceX might keep a similar production rate as they have now.