Author Topic: IAC 2017 -- BFR v0.2 - DISCUSSION THREAD 2 (Post Speech)  (Read 179471 times)

Online tchernik

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Re: IAC 2017 -- BFR v0.2 - DISCUSSION THREAD 2 (Post Speech)
« Reply #840 on: 10/06/2017 03:04 AM »
There probably is a vastly better investment to be made in building a new, larger optical wavelength telescope than bringing Hubble home just to refurb it and launch it again. This goes back to the argument that the $$$$ on fixing and servicing Hubble could potentially have been better spent simply replacing it instead of it being a 'place to send the shuttle'.

The only place the venerable telescope should be going, is to its final resting place on the Smithsonian.

Offline spacetraveler

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Re: IAC 2017 -- BFR v0.2 - DISCUSSION THREAD 2 (Post Speech)
« Reply #841 on: 10/06/2017 04:08 AM »
Many people worry that SpaceX will be taking a risk by transitioning at some point from the cash-producing Falcon 9 to the BFR. But there is one contrarian thought which I haven't read in this thread (or anywhere for that matter).

Today's SpaceX is above all an organization that excels at designing and building innovative launch vehicles and spacecraft. After 16 F9 landings in a row, one can imagine a future where most flights use previously flown boosters. Today's design-and-build SpaceX is less relevant in such a future.

Hence, the greatest long-term risk for SpaceX, in my view, would be if it were to stand still. And that's why I believe that the all-in transition to BFR makes perfect strategic as well as financial sense.

Yeah, I mean, a lot of people seem to be forgetting that SpaceX was not started to become a steady state launch provider of low cost launches for satellites using partially reusable rockets. It was started for Musk's explicit goal of going to Mars. So as soon as he saw the opportunity to go all in on that, he took it. SpaceX is evolving into precisely what it's original mission statement put forward.

All of the work for NASA and satellite providers was always a means to this end.
« Last Edit: 10/06/2017 04:12 AM by spacetraveler »

Online cppetrie

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Re: IAC 2017 -- BFR v0.2 - DISCUSSION THREAD 2 (Post Speech)
« Reply #842 on: 10/06/2017 06:54 AM »
Can we agree to disagree and move back to discussing the technical aspects of the presentation? This endless back and forth is distracting from thoughtful discussion of the merits.

So what else are the potential gotchas hidden in this design?

Offline corneliussulla

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Re: IAC 2017 -- BFR v0.2 - DISCUSSION THREAD 2 (Post Speech)
« Reply #843 on: 10/06/2017 07:28 AM »
An awful lot of talk in here about Musk not doing what he said. It's true that he has made statements and plans which he has changed when more information has been available. For me that's his strength not his weakness. His one unwavering goal is to create a completely reusable spaceship which can take large amounts of people and material to Mars. That has never changed, who cares what size the rocket engine is. It's the goal that matters.

It cannot be doubted that he has made significant progress towards this goal. He now has significant system developments underway for the spacecraft to meet his goal and plans for construction of the space craft. I have no doubt that at some point we will see hardware which looks much like his presentation at IAC. Will it meet all his stated objectives on day one, maybe not Evan probably not. However that won't stop him; if the initial BFR can only do 20 reuses rather than 1000 he will just keep pushing until it does, that is his magic, he never gives up.

Regards the company profitability etc. Companies don't need to be profitable they only need to be cash flow positive, ask Bezos. A year or so ago Musk said they had 70 orders on their manifest worth about $10 billion. Well it looks like they will launch about 20 of those this year. Roughly $3 billion worth. Maybe 30 launches next year gets u to roughly $4.3 billion. If he can bring 50% of these resources to bear on the BFR/BFS I think he will make serious progress rapidly..Not enough to make serious progress on such a plan if ur Lockheed Martin/Boeing working in cahoots with NASA, look at Orion. But SpaceX is a different creature.
« Last Edit: 10/06/2017 07:44 AM by corneliussulla »

Offline jpo234

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Re: IAC 2017 -- BFR v0.2 - DISCUSSION THREAD 2 (Post Speech)
« Reply #844 on: 10/06/2017 07:48 AM »


An awful lot of talk in here about Musk not doing what he said. It's true that he has made statements and plans which he has changed when more information has been available. For me that's his strength not his weakness. His one unwavering goal is to be to create a completely reusable spaceship which can take large amounts of people and material to Mars.

John Maynard Keynes:
Quote
When my information changes, I alter my conclusions. What do you do, sir?
You want to be inspired by things. You want to wake up in the morning and think the future is going to be great. That's what being a spacefaring civilization is all about. It's about believing in the future and believing the future will be better than the past. And I can't think of anything more exciting than being out there among the stars.

Online Chris Bergin

Long, mass interest thread was always going to go off the rails at some point, as much as it's been moderated as a few "one on one" conversations were a mix of dragging the topic off course and unacceptable for the standards of this forum, including people quoting those bad posts, which you really shouldn't do (you were warned, in the opening post!) :)

So needs a new thread.

https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43920.0

This current thread is now locked.

« Last Edit: 10/06/2017 08:47 AM by Chris Bergin »

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