Note: Is a discussion about building thousands of sats per year OT in a "Recession in global satellite industry' thread?
Quote from: AncientU on 09/13/2017 05:28 pmNote: Is a discussion about building thousands of sats per year OT in a "Recession in global satellite industry' thread?A giant detailed discussion probably belongs elsewhere but as a refutation to the thesis that there is a recession on, it's on topic in my view, and easily.
Quote from: Lar on 09/13/2017 06:03 pmQuote from: AncientU on 09/13/2017 05:28 pmNote: Is a discussion about building thousands of sats per year OT in a "Recession in global satellite industry' thread?A giant detailed discussion probably belongs elsewhere but as a refutation to the thesis that there is a recession on, it's on topic in my view, and easily.The number of orders are down, people are being laid off, and revenues reported by the industry last year were a tiny notch above inflation rate, significantly below historical growth.So until these supposed newly manufactured constellations start making a dent in the overall reported revenues, it's tough to call it as anything but a recession, or a plateau at least.
Okay folks, fess up, which one of you is Brian Berger of SN ? http://spacenews.com/are-geo-satellite-orders-still-a-good-measure-of-industry-health/
Quote from: savuporo on 09/13/2017 06:11 pmQuote from: Lar on 09/13/2017 06:03 pmQuote from: AncientU on 09/13/2017 05:28 pmNote: Is a discussion about building thousands of sats per year OT in a "Recession in global satellite industry' thread?A giant detailed discussion probably belongs elsewhere but as a refutation to the thesis that there is a recession on, it's on topic in my view, and easily.The number of orders are down, people are being laid off, and revenues reported by the industry last year were a tiny notch above inflation rate, significantly below historical growth.So until these supposed newly manufactured constellations start making a dent in the overall reported revenues, it's tough to call it as anything but a recession, or a plateau at least.When one company has layoffs, and another is building a new factory, this you can't look at just the one company and make conclusions about the whole industry. There are different metrics to track, but if you want to discuss job numbers, you have to mention the hiring being done in addition to the layoffs. Revenue growth being above inflation does not make sense to call recession. Plateau makes some sense in this case, but the context should be considered, and if you count the construction for the new constellations, I am not sure how you could conclude that "orders are down." See above statement from satellite manufacturers on using GEO comsat orders as a KPI.
...Growth rate of satellite manufacturing industry is -13%, below zero.Growth rate of satellite service industry is -0.2%, below inflation.Growth rate of the whole satellite industry is 2%, but mostly are contributed from ground equipments.
Satellite manufacturing revenues are recorded in the year of satellite launch.
Constellations of Internet Satellites Will Beam Broadband Everywhere..."I've been in this industry well over 30 years, and there's been more activity in the last five or so years, than probably in the previous 20," Sanders says. "It's incredible."
Quote from: Katana on 09/16/2017 04:41 am...Growth rate of satellite manufacturing industry is -13%, below zero.Growth rate of satellite service industry is 0.2%, below inflation.Growth rate of the whole satellite industry is 2%, but mostly are contributed from ground equipments.This -13% figure is the premise of entire thread. Satellite manufacturing revenues* were impacted by the availability of launchers due to Proton's year off and SpaceX losing AMOS plus four months of launches. Communications sats accounted for 22% of revenue vs 42% the previous year -- a big drop that more than accounts for the -13% overall. This could easily be the result of losing a handful of big sat launches.*Per the report (page17):QuoteSatellite manufacturing revenues are recorded in the year of satellite launch.I believe that this thread has well-covered the transition being experienced by the satellite manufacturing (plus other segments) industry. It is probably as healthy now as it ever has been, maybe better, but going to look quite different a few years down the road.
...Growth rate of satellite manufacturing industry is -13%, below zero.Growth rate of satellite service industry is 0.2%, below inflation.Growth rate of the whole satellite industry is 2%, but mostly are contributed from ground equipments.
Revenues from comm sat service providers slow growth is due to the fact that the sats recently deployed have a very large increase per sat in data throughput (HTS). This has caused data prices to decrease. Which if the industry's revenue is still increasing (even just .2%) with prices decreasing means the demand for data has increased a lot. It is this last item that tells the tale about the health of the industry. What is the demand? Is it increasing or decreasing. The answer is that it is increasing rapidly, but that the demand is also for much lower prices on the $/bit. The industry is showing a high elasticity for demand vs the prices for the data. Competition in the form of the prices of $/bit provided by NGSO and LEO constellations as well as the GEO-HTS is transforming the comm sat manufacturers customer base demands. They want the manufacturers to deliver sats that provide capabilities that will have lower $/bit. Either lower the unit costs or increase the unit's bandwidth for same cost.