Doubtful market demand to support large LEO constellations in future, ironical compared to crazy boom in small launcher projects.
Or the opposite: the satellite industry anticipating the new smallsat launchers coming online or prices to start/continue dropping, and are awaiting the new prices and specs before they start building new satellites.Edit: or the established players expect competition to go up from new players branching out, so they're not investing anymore, while new players are not yet ready to start.
So people in rural areas really don't like to have fast internet. Brilliant analysis.
Quote from: guckyfan on 08/28/2017 06:47 amSo people in rural areas really don't like to have fast internet. Brilliant analysis.Yes, they would like to have fast internet, but the rural population is not very big and therefore not profitable. The same mistake was made with Iridium.
Quote from: Steven Pietrobon on 08/29/2017 07:47 amQuote from: guckyfan on 08/28/2017 06:47 amSo people in rural areas really don't like to have fast internet. Brilliant analysis.Yes, they would like to have fast internet, but the rural population is not very big and therefore not profitable. The same mistake was made with Iridium.No, Iridium was counting on the opposite of rural folk -- they were going after the rich, globe-trotting travelers. And they were going after the mobile market, not the home/business market. The new constellations may or may not be financially viable, but if they aren't, it won't be because they made Iridium's mistakes.Also, it's worth noting that while Iridium in 1999 wasn't viable, Iridium in 2017 is viable. And it's not just because they don't have to pay the sunk cost of their constellation. They're in the process of putting up a whole new replacement constellation, and they have the business to pay for it.
Quote from: high road on 08/28/2017 08:16 amOr the opposite: the satellite industry anticipating the new smallsat launchers coming online or prices to start/continue dropping, and are awaiting the new prices and specs before they start building new satellites.Edit: or the established players expect competition to go up from new players branching out, so they're not investing anymore, while new players are not yet ready to start.The satellite service section also experienced growth rate down to 0.2%, at the edge of decay.It's hard to imagine end users waiting for next generation technology and stop buying services now.
Also, it's worth noting that while Iridium in 1999 wasn't viable, Iridium in 2017 is viable. And it's not just because they don't have to pay the sunk cost of their constellation. They're in the process of putting up a whole new replacement constellation, and they have the business to pay for it.
Quote from: ChrisWilson68 on 08/29/2017 10:20 amQuote from: Steven Pietrobon on 08/29/2017 07:47 amQuote from: guckyfan on 08/28/2017 06:47 amSo people in rural areas really don't like to have fast internet. Brilliant analysis.Yes, they would like to have fast internet, but the rural population is not very big and therefore not profitable. The same mistake was made with Iridium.No, Iridium was counting on the opposite of rural folk -- they were going after the rich, globe-trotting travelers. And they were going after the mobile market, not the home/business market. The new constellations may or may not be financially viable, but if they aren't, it won't be because they made Iridium's mistakes.Also, it's worth noting that while Iridium in 1999 wasn't viable, Iridium in 2017 is viable. And it's not just because they don't have to pay the sunk cost of their constellation. They're in the process of putting up a whole new replacement constellation, and they have the business to pay for it.All the more reason not to put up new expensive satellites right now. Old and aging satellites might need to be replaced, but new ones can wait a few years, rather than risk them facing competition from cheaper smallsats before the profits cover the investment. And even if the smallsat networks turns out not to be workable, the losses will probably be lower.Quote from: Katana on 08/29/2017 03:46 amQuote from: high road on 08/28/2017 08:16 amOr the opposite: the satellite industry anticipating the new smallsat launchers coming online or prices to start/continue dropping, and are awaiting the new prices and specs before they start building new satellites.Edit: or the established players expect competition to go up from new players branching out, so they're not investing anymore, while new players are not yet ready to start.The satellite service section also experienced growth rate down to 0.2%, at the edge of decay.It's hard to imagine end users waiting for next generation technology and stop buying services now.That is a good remark. Maybe increasing competition with 3/4G mobile data coverage via landbased networks, internet television and increasing connectivity to fiberoptic networks in more or less urban areas eating into their profit margins? This increases the need for new markets, so that's a good thing in the long term.
“We are moving into an era of unprecedented capacity,” he said, calculating that the amount of broadband satellite bandwidth is set to boom by a factor of four by 2020 but demand only by a factor of three. “There is a massive glut. Investors are very concerned about what that means. Normally that is an environment where an industry would consolidate,” he says.