Total Members Voted: 77
Voting closed: 09/07/2017 07:49 pm
I'm one of the jerks that went 'Never', because I think they will have a better idea, decide they don't need it, or some such. I don't think they will fail.
1H2018.Should take 6 months starting in September 2016 to validate models with sub-scale firings, few months to tweak full scale design (which I'd assume existed concurrently with sub-scale build), and then start into procuring long lead items such as turbo shafts for the full scale engine. This would have begun this summer. Fab of full scale prototype should be done by 1Q2018. Full scale firings commence immediately on Raptor Stand #2 (which is being built as we type); a couple months of 'uneventful' full scale firings validate models again and lead to full power firings by next summer.Flight qualified by summer 2019.
Quote from: AncientU on 08/08/2017 11:36 pm1H2018.Should take 6 months starting in September 2016 to validate models with sub-scale firings, few months to tweak full scale design (which I'd assume existed concurrently with sub-scale build), and then start into procuring long lead items such as turbo shafts for the full scale engine. This would have begun this summer. Fab of full scale prototype should be done by 1Q2018. Full scale firings commence immediately on Raptor Stand #2 (which is being built as we type); a couple months of 'uneventful' full scale firings validate models again and lead to full power firings by next summer.Flight qualified by summer 2019.Thanks for the detailed estimate. When you say `procure', is there any mention that they'll use an external contractor for the turboshafts? I thought they were bringing as much as they could in-house. Any idea who will supply these components?I'll put my estimate a year or so later, around 2020. It's a very ambitious undertaking and 3 years still feels fast; 2020 gives more room for unanticipated setbacks.