Author Topic: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5  (Read 40114 times)

Online gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #40 on: 09/07/2017 05:59 PM »
Saving a snapshot for future reference.  Someone should remind me to do this a couple times a year.
Discussion of the manifest, and updates. The best guess at the current manifest is in this post. 
Discussion of the table format should be done here: SpaceX Manifest Table Format Discussion
Prior thread: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4

Sites:
      C=Canaveral (UTC-4 EDT,UTC-5 EST)
            CCAFS SLC-40: Damaged by vehicle explosion (no launches until around October 2017, no earlier than September)
            KSC LC-39A: Active for F9, will need further work for FH and Commercial Crew
      V=Vandenberg (UTC-7 PDT,UTC-8 PST)
            SLC-4E: Active for F9
      B=Boca Chica (UTC-5 CDT,UTC-6 CST)
            Site preparation work underway

Daylight saving time starts second Sunday in March, ends first Sunday in November, time changes at 2:00 a.m. local time

       Local        LV  Core   Ret- .                             .    Mass   .     Mis-
Est. Date,  Time/UTC.   S/N    urn  Payload(s)                    Orb  (kg)   Site sion
------------------- --- ------ ---  ----------------------------  ---  -----  -----  ----
2017-01-14  0954/-8F91029.1SIridium NEXT (Flight 1)PLR9600V-4E30
2017-02-19  0939/-5F91031.1LCRS 10LEO~10kC-39A31
2017-03-16  0200/-4F91030XEchostar 23GTO~5500C-39A32
2017-03-30  1827/-4F91021.2SSES-10GTO5282C-39A33
2017-05-01  0715/-4F91032LNROL-76LEO?C-39A34
2017-05-15  1921/-4F91034XInmarsat 5 F4GTO6086C-39A35
2017-06-03  1707/-4F91035LCRS 11LEO~10kC-39A36
2017-06-23  1510/-4F91029.2SBulgariaSat-1GTO3669C-39A37
2017-06-25  1325/-7F91036SIridium NEXT (Flight 2)PLR9600V-4E38
2017-07-05  1938/-4F91037XIntelsat 35eGTO6761C-39A39
2017-08-14  1231/-4F91039LCRS 12LEO~10kC-39A40
2017-08-24  1151/-7F91038SFORMOSAT-5SSO475V-4E41
2017-09-07  1000/-7F91040LAir Force X-37B OTV-5LEO5400C-39A42
------------------- --- ------ ---  ----------------------------  ---  -----  ----- ----
2017-10-04  0606/-7F91041SIridium NEXT (Flight 3)PLR9600V-4E43
2017-10F91031.2?SES-11/Echostar 105GTO5400C-39A44
2017-Q4F9.SKoreasat-5AGTO3500C .
2017-11-lateF9.SIridium NEXT (Flight 4)PLR9600V-4E.
2017-Q4F9.XHispasat 1F (30W-6)GTO6092C.
2017-Q4H.LLSFalcon Heavy Demo Flight..C-39A(50)
2017-12F9.LCRS 13LEO~10kC.
2017-12F9.SGovSat-1 (SES-16)GTO4000C.
2017-12F9..BangabandhuGTO~3500C.
2017-12F9..Paz & co-passengerSSO1400V-4E.
2018-Q1F9.SIridium NEXT (Flight 5)PLR9600V-4E.
2018F9..Spaceflight SSO-A (575km)SSO.V-4E.
2018F9.SEs'hail 2GTO~3kC.
2018-01-late or 02F9.LCRS 14LEO~10kC(55)
2018-02F9.?CCtCap DM1LEO.C-39A.
2018-H1H.LLSArabsat 6AGTO~6kC-39A.
2018-Q1F9.SSES-12GTO5300C.
2018-03-20F9..NASA (TESS)HEO325C .
2018-03-21F9..Iridium NEXT 6/GRACE-FOPLR~6kV-4E.
2018-03F9.?SAOCOM 1ASSO2800V-4E.
2018-04F9..CCiCap In-Flight Abort TestSUB.C.
2018-Q2F9.?Telstar 18 Vantage/Apstar-5CGTO>5400C.
2018-Q2F9.?Telstar 19 VantageGTO>5400C.
2018-04-30 (NET)H.LLSSTP-2 (US Air Force)MEO~8k?C-39A.
2018-05 (NET)F9..USAF GPS III A-2MEO3880C.
2018-Q2F9..Iridium NEXT (Flight 7)PLR9600V-4E.
2018-06F9.LCRS 15LEO~10kC.
2018-06F9..CCtCap DM2 (Crew)LEO.C-39A.
2018-06F9..Iridium NEXT (Flight 8)PLR9600V-4E.
2018F9.?PSN-6 and co-passengerGTO5000C.
2018-08F9..Telkom 4GTO.C(68)
2018-08F9.LCRS 16LEO~10kC.
2018-Q3F9..RADARSAT ConstellationSSO1400V-4E.
2018F9..OHB SARah 1SSO~2200V-4E.
2018-10F9.LCRS 17LEO~10kC.
2018-Q4F9..Spaceflight SSO-B (500km)SSO.V-4E(70)
2018-Q4F9..GiSat-1GTO~6kC/B.
2018-Q4F9..Spaceflight GTO (200x60k/km)GTO.C(70)
2018-12F9.LCRS 18LEO~10kC.
2019H.???SpaceX Crewed CircumlunarTLI~10k?C-39A.
2019F9..CRS 19-20LEO.C.
2019-02F9..USAF GPS IIIA-3MEO3880C.
2019F9..SAOCOM 1B and companionsSSO~3-4kV-4E.
2019F9..OHB SARah 2/3SSO~3600V-4E .
2019-H2F9..JCSAT-18/Kacific-1GTO~6k+C/B.
2019F9..SiriusXM SXM-7GTO.C(80)
2019-Q4F9..Spaceflight GTO(200x36k/km)GTO.C/B(70)
2020F9..Spaceflight SSO-C (500km SSO)SSO.V-4E(70)
2020F9..SiriusXM SXM-8GTO.C(80)
2020-2021H..ViaSat 3-Americas or 3-EMEAGTO6400C/B(69)
2021-04F9..SWOTLEO2000V-4E.
TBD (2019-2024)F9..Commercial Crew (6 flights)LEO.C-39A.
TBD (2020-2024)F9..CRS-2 (6+ flights)LEO.C.
Companies that appear to have contracts for unspecified payloads: Eutelsat, Inmarsat (x2?), Northrop Grumman, Bigelow

Return: L=Land,S=Sea,X=Expendable,N/A=Not Applicable
Launch Vehicle: F9=Falcon 9, H=Falcon Heavy, F=Falcon 9 or Heavy
Colors: Successful / Unsuccessful / Mars!!!! / Footnotes

L2 SpaceX CRS External Cargo
L2 Level SpaceX Falcon 9 Stage Watch / Public Core Spotting
SpaceX Launch Log (past launches) / Wikipedia Falcon Launches
Viewing flights from Vandenberg / Ben Cooper's Viewing Guide for Cape Canaveral
Upcoming SpaceX Talks / General Industry Talks
SpaceX Falcon Mission Simulations

NOTES:
(50) FH Demo - Serial Numbers: Center:1033  Side1:1023.2  Side2: 1025.2
(55) CRS-14 : EnduroSat One @ARRL
(68) Telkom 4 links Gunter
(69) Viasat 3 : one of first two Viasat 3 birds in mid-2019 or early-2020.  Also third Viasat 3 if it gets built?
  ViaSatellite 2/10/16 SpaceNews 2/10/2016 Gunter
(70) Spaceflight Industries : Upcoming Spaceflight Ind. schedule update
(80) Sirius SXM-7, SXM-8 : SSL Contract Press Release / Gunter

Possible future payloads:
Inmarsat 6 F1 SpaceNews mention / Airbus contract / Gunter / Space Intel mention

Competitions for future payloads:
Air Force - EELV, First 5

L2 notes on manifest:

Recent Edits:
Sep 06 Added Sirius SXM-7, SXM-8.  Removed line items for Eutelsat and Inmarsat, added list at the end for customers with unspecified contracts.
Sep 04 Added Kacific-1/JCSat-18 in second half of 2019
Aug 31 Telkom 4 moved from June to August 2018
Aug 28 SES-14 switched to Ariane 5 launch.  SES-12 switched to F9 launch Q1-2018.
Aug 25 Moved Iridium Flight 3 to October 4.
Aug 23 Removed Spaceflight Industries GTO-1, SSO-D
Aug 22 GRACE-FO March 21, 2018.  CRS-14 late January 2018?, CRS-15 June 2018.
Aug 13 Moved CRS-13 to early December


All comments and updates are welcomed!  Thank you to all contributors!
« Last Edit: 09/07/2017 06:00 PM by gongora »

Online AncientU

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #41 on: 09/07/2017 07:13 PM »
SpaceX has added a number of new missions on their manifest page (http://www.spacex.com/missions):

* an Eutelsat
* SXM-7 for Sirius-XM
* SXM-8 for Sirius-XM
* an not named satellite from SSL
* a satellite for TELKOM INDONESIA (likely Telkom-4)

Added the SiriusXM flights to the manifest

So, at least four GTOs recently added... possibly five, plus Kacific this week.
Must be making impression on the market that backlog is under control.
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Online gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #42 on: 09/07/2017 07:18 PM »
SpaceX has added a number of new missions on their manifest page (http://www.spacex.com/missions):

* an Eutelsat
* SXM-7 for Sirius-XM
* SXM-8 for Sirius-XM
* an not named satellite from SSL
* a satellite for TELKOM INDONESIA (likely Telkom-4)

Added the SiriusXM flights to the manifest

So, at least four GTOs recently added... possibly five, plus Kacific this week.
Must be making impression on the market that backlog is under control.

If the four or five you're referring too are the ones Skyrocket listed, only the Sirius flights are really new.

Online AncientU

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #43 on: 09/07/2017 07:22 PM »
Aren't they additions to the manifest this year? 
New orders this year?
"If we shared everything [we are working on] people would think we are insane!"
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Online gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #44 on: 09/07/2017 07:29 PM »
Aren't they additions to the manifest this year? 
New orders this year?

Telkom-4 is this year (we heard about it a few months ago).  PSN-6 (SSL) we've known about for over a year.  Eutelsat is one of those old contracts that's never been assigned a firm payload, speculation was it would be the Eutelsat Quantum satellite but apparently there is political pressure to launch that one on a European rocket since it has government funding.

edit: the Eutelsat contract was from early 2016 for either Quantum or something else...
SpaceNews article
« Last Edit: 09/07/2017 07:32 PM by gongora »

Offline Norm38

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #45 on: 09/08/2017 04:39 PM »
I guess it was good planning on SpaceX's part to not have another launch planned at the Cape for a month.

Offline Ragmar

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #46 on: 09/08/2017 05:04 PM »
Do we have any idea when the SXM-7 and SXM-8 launches were awarded to SpaceX or the potential value? Just a surprise to see these going on a Falcon 9 since previously they've only launched on a Zenit or Proton vehicle.

Offline jpo234

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #47 on: 09/08/2017 09:32 PM »


I guess it was good planning on SpaceX's part to not have another launch planned at the Cape for a month.

I know you meant it as a joke, but September is the peak of the hurricane season. Maybe this factored into the mission planning.
You want to be inspired by things. You want to wake up in the morning and think the future is going to be great. That's what being a spacefaring civilization is all about. It's about believing in the future and believing the future will be better than the past. And I can't think of anything more exciting than being out there among the stars.

Offline cscott

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #48 on: 09/09/2017 12:24 AM »


I guess it was good planning on SpaceX's part to not have another launch planned at the Cape for a month.

I know you meant it as a joke, but September is the peak of the hurricane season. Maybe this factored into the mission planning.
It would be interesting to know what fraction of the critical path through September was allocated to: expected weather disruption (check!), Hawthorne/McGregor work (unaffected), or Cape work (likely to be delayed).

Online gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #49 on: 09/11/2017 07:16 PM »
Several articles in the Indonesian press saying they may want to move up the Telkom 4 launch a couple months in the wake of the Telkom 1 failure.  After looking at the SpaceX manifest for 2018 my first thought is "good luck with that".

https://inet.detik.com/telecommunication/d-3637096/buyarnya-rencana-satelit-telkom-4-di-17-agustus-2018
https://beritagar.id/artikel/berita/peluncuran-satelit-telkom-4-akan-dipercepat
http://www.indotelko.com/kanal?c=id&it=ssl-satelit-telkom-4

Offline cppetrie

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #50 on: 09/11/2017 07:24 PM »
Several articles in the Indonesian press saying they may want to move up the Telkom 4 launch a couple months in the wake of the Telkom 1 failure.  After looking at the SpaceX manifest for 2018 my first thought is "good luck with that".

https://inet.detik.com/telecommunication/d-3637096/buyarnya-rencana-satelit-telkom-4-di-17-agustus-2018
https://beritagar.id/artikel/berita/peluncuran-satelit-telkom-4-akan-dipercepat
http://www.indotelko.com/kanal?c=id&it=ssl-satelit-telkom-4
Switching to a flight-proven booster might help with that.

Offline Ragmar

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #51 on: 09/11/2017 07:38 PM »
Several articles in the Indonesian press saying they may want to move up the Telkom 4 launch a couple months in the wake of the Telkom 1 failure.  After looking at the SpaceX manifest for 2018 my first thought is "good luck with that".

https://inet.detik.com/telecommunication/d-3637096/buyarnya-rencana-satelit-telkom-4-di-17-agustus-2018
https://beritagar.id/artikel/berita/peluncuran-satelit-telkom-4-akan-dipercepat
http://www.indotelko.com/kanal?c=id&it=ssl-satelit-telkom-4
Switching to a flight-proven booster might help with that.

I thought they had already confirmed they were using a recovered booster?

Offline Ragmar

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #52 on: 09/11/2017 07:46 PM »
Looks like SAOCOM 1A is now June 2018.

Quote
This Italian-Argentine system will be complete when the two SAOCOM 1A and SAOCOM 1B satellites are launched, which will be put into orbit in June 2018 and at the beginning of 2019, respectively. Dr. Laura Frulla, principal investigator of the SAOCOM mission, stressed that "this international summit is very useful for the meeting of the institutions of the different countries".

http://www.losandes.com.ar/article/cumbre-en-buenos-aires-se-pueden-anticipar-catastrofes-naturales-con-informacion-satelital

Online Lar

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #53 on: 09/11/2017 07:59 PM »
Several articles in the Indonesian press saying they may want to move up the Telkom 4 launch a couple months in the wake of the Telkom 1 failure.  After looking at the SpaceX manifest for 2018 my first thought is "good luck with that".

https://inet.detik.com/telecommunication/d-3637096/buyarnya-rencana-satelit-telkom-4-di-17-agustus-2018
https://beritagar.id/artikel/berita/peluncuran-satelit-telkom-4-akan-dipercepat
http://www.indotelko.com/kanal?c=id&it=ssl-satelit-telkom-4
Switching to a flight-proven booster might help with that.

I thought they had already confirmed they were using a recovered booster?
Maybe if they take a block 3? LOL.
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Offline oldAtlas_Eguy

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #54 on: 09/12/2017 05:02 PM »
Here is the math.

Using Blk 5's that have flown only in 2018, and that only BLk'5 will fly in 2018.

That each Blk 5 will be capable of 3 flights 1 as new and 2 as used without much refurbishment work. Mostly just inspections and tests, little or no hardware swap-out.

That the initial quarter of 2018 (2018 Q1) launches 4 new Blk'5. The build rate of 1st stages remains at 4 per quarter. The build rate of US starting in 2018 is increased each quarter until reaching a build rate of 12 per quarter by 2018 Q4.

Then by EOY 2018 there will have been 32 launches, with 67% of then in the last quarter being used. This used to total rate will become steady state such that a total of 48 launches is possible in 2019.

This is without requiring more manufacturing floor space.

By decreasing the 1st stage build rate to 3/quarter and increasing the US build rate to 16/quarter. By increasing the re-flight rate for each booster by 1 to 1 new and 3 used flights for a total of 4, enables a total number of launches per year of 64 also without the need for more floor space. The used to total flights rate will then be 75%.
« Last Edit: 09/12/2017 05:07 PM by oldAtlas_Eguy »

Online gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #55 on: 09/12/2017 05:30 PM »
This thread is really not for speculation on launch rates, customer adoption rates of reuse, etc.  It is for discussing which flights are on the manifest and when they will fly.

Offline Ragmar

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #56 on: 09/12/2017 08:05 PM »
http://spacenews.com/inmarsat-picks-h2-a-to-launch-its-first-sixth-gen-satellite/

Looks like Inmarsat-6 F1 is no longer a FH launch--remove from the manifest (even though it's in the speculation section)?

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #57 on: 09/15/2017 09:11 AM »
Quote
Peter B. de Selding‏ @pbdes 35s seconds ago

Taiwan NSPO: Six US/Taiwan Formosat-7/COSMIC-2 sats to launch Q2 2018 on @SpaceX Falcon Heavy; will be 1st launch after Nov FH demo flight.

https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/908619097189027840


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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #58 on: 09/19/2017 03:44 PM »
SpaceX submitted another STA permit application for using a landing radar, this time for mission 1373 on the east coast.  Timing would suggest maybe it's for Koreasat 5A.  (That would line up with Raul's interpretation of the FCC permit numbering, which I'd been a little skeptical about.)

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #59 on: 09/19/2017 05:40 PM »
(That would line up with Raul's interpretation of the FCC permit numbering, which I'd been a little skeptical about.)

Where is Raul's interpretation?

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