Poll

How many SpaceX flights do you anticipate in 2H (1 July - 31 December) 2017?

0
0 (0%)
1
1 (0.9%)
2
0 (0%)
3
2 (1.9%)
4
1 (0.9%)
5
2 (1.9%)
6
5 (4.6%)
7
3 (2.8%)
8
10 (9.3%)
9
16 (14.8%)
10
20 (18.5%)
11
21 (19.4%)
12
14 (13%)
13
6 (5.6%)
14
3 (2.8%)
15
2 (1.9%)
16
0 (0%)
17
0 (0%)
18
2 (1.9%)
19
0 (0%)
20
0 (0%)
21-25
0 (0%)
26-30
0 (0%)
31-35
0 (0%)
More than 35!
0 (0%)

Total Members Voted: 108

Voting closed: 08/01/2017 09:01 PM


Author Topic: POLL: How many SpaceX flights in 2H 2017?  (Read 3049 times)

Offline rockets4life97

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Re: POLL: How many SpaceX flights in 2H 2017?
« Reply #20 on: 07/07/2017 03:14 PM »
Looks like 12 is Elon's target:
Quote
elonmusk: 10 so far this year, another 12 to go
https://www.instagram.com/p/BWPu_jrAFBB/?taken-by=elonmusk

Technically 13 for this poll, since Intelsat would count as 2H 2017.

Here is my guess at the remaining 12:

From the Cape (7):
CRS-12
AF X37B
SES-11
KoreaSat
SES-16
FH Demo
Hispasat

From Vandenberg (5):
Formosat
Iridium 3
Saocom 1A
Iridium 4
Iridium 5

Offline Lar

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Re: POLL: How many SpaceX flights in 2H 2017?
« Reply #21 on: 07/07/2017 03:43 PM »
Looks like 12 is Elon's target:
Quote
elonmusk: 10 so far this year, another 12 to go
https://www.instagram.com/p/BWPu_jrAFBB/?taken-by=elonmusk

Good for him! But that doesn't mean we don't want to make our own guesses... keep on guessing folks.
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Online FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: POLL: How many SpaceX flights in 2H 2017?
« Reply #22 on: 07/08/2017 05:36 AM »
Here is my guess at the remaining 12:

From the Cape (7):
CRS-12
AF X37B
SES-11
KoreaSat
SES-16
FH Demo
Hispasat

From Vandenberg (5):
Formosat
Iridium 3
Saocom 1A
Iridium 4
Iridium 5

I think Iridium 5 must be 2018 now as Iridium 3 is now September and they need 2 months between launches.

Offline AbuSimbel

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Re: POLL: How many SpaceX flights in 2H 2017?
« Reply #23 on: 07/08/2017 09:17 AM »
Looks like 12 is Elon's target:
Quote
elonmusk: 10 so far this year, another 12 to go
https://www.instagram.com/p/BWPu_jrAFBB/?taken-by=elonmusk

Good for him! But that doesn't mean we don't want to make our own guesses... keep on guessing folks.
Who is he to stop our guessing?
Btw I picked 5 thinking this was the poll for the cape but actually meant 10. I think they'll be split in half between the two coasts.

Offline rockets4life97

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Re: POLL: How many SpaceX flights in 2H 2017?
« Reply #24 on: 07/08/2017 11:58 AM »
I think Iridium 5 must be 2018 now as Iridium 3 is now September and they need 2 months between launches.

My memory says Iridium needs 40 days between launches for orbital manuevors. The original 2 months (60 days) was because of manufacturing. With the slips of the first flights that is no longer the long pole.

Offline Joffan

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Re: POLL: How many SpaceX flights in 2H 2017?
« Reply #25 on: 07/08/2017 06:02 PM »
Really it should be 2 per month from the Cape (1 in July, already done) and maybe 3 more from the West, giving 14. So I can't really explain why I voted for 9, except pessimism.
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Offline oldAtlas_Eguy

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Re: POLL: How many SpaceX flights in 2H 2017?
« Reply #26 on: 08/04/2017 10:13 PM »
My estimate was 13 but my recent evaluation is that no more than 12. 8 Cape and 4 Vafb in 2H.

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