Author Topic: National Space Council Reestablished  (Read 35834 times)

Offline sanman

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Re: National Space Council Reestablished
« Reply #100 on: 10/06/2017 03:12 AM »
I don't know about any other providers, but SpaceX doesn't sell rockets.  They sell launch services.

There is a difference.

And that's another thing - I know there was a separate thread on it - but at some point it makes sense for launch providers to give way to carriers and OEMs. Once you have rockets that are sufficiently versatile, they can be used to cater to a variety of niche routes/mission-types. This could give rise to various carriers/operators who specialize in those routes/mission-types. Meanwhile, vehicle manufacturers could remain specialized in manufacturing of vehicles. There are shipping companies and there are shipbuilders. There are air carriers and there are aircraft manufacturers.

That may not seem like it's possible today, but by the time you have a space economy with "millions of people living and working in space", you're going to have to give way to that kind of specialization.
« Last Edit: 10/06/2017 03:39 AM by sanman »

Offline the_other_Doug

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Re: National Space Council Reestablished
« Reply #101 on: 10/06/2017 03:21 AM »
I don't know about any other providers, but SpaceX doesn't sell rockets.  They sell launch services.

There is a difference.

And that's another thing - I know there was a separate thread on it - but at some point it makes sense for launch providers to give way to carriers and OEMs. Once you have rockets that are sufficiently versatile, they can be used to cater to a variety of niche routes/mission-types. This could give rise to various carriers/operators who specialize in those routes/mission-types. Meanwhile, vehicle manufacturers could remain specialized in manufacturing of vehicles. There are shipping companies and there are shipbuilders. There are air carriers and there are aircraft manufacturers.

That may not seem like it's possible today, but by the time you have a space economy with "millions of people living and working in space", you're going to have to give way to that kind of specialization.

Totally agreed.  But you have to build an economical launch system before you can then hand it off to "spacelines" and such operations-centric carriers.

And for right now, SpaceX-the-rocket-manufacturer has to get all of the revenues from SpaceX-the-launch-services-provider, to do all that expensive development.  Once the systems are developed, tested and in place, SpaceX can franchise and.or sell off the operations side and use the remaining revenue stream from it, and from selling spacecraft and launch vehicles to all the various carriers, in order to develop new technology.

But, as I say, for right now, being a total launch services provider (including designing and building the rockets) is the only way for the company to make enough revenue to pay for the development.
-Doug  (With my shield, not yet upon it)

Offline woods170

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Re: National Space Council Reestablished
« Reply #102 on: 10/06/2017 06:08 AM »
I want my 2.5 hours of sleep back, but I look forward to seeing the policy that comes out of this.

Wait? You actually expect policy to come from this? Seriously?

Policy isn't worth the paper it's written on when it's not funded. Just sayin'
« Last Edit: 10/06/2017 06:12 AM by woods170 »

Offline QuantumG

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Re: National Space Council Reestablished
« Reply #103 on: 10/06/2017 06:31 AM »
Wait? You actually expect policy to come from this? Seriously?

Sure, at least a doubling down of the existing hot air in the last authorization act.

Quote from: woods170
Policy isn't worth the paper it's written on when it's not funded. Just sayin'

The pork must flow.
Jeff Bezos has billions to spend on rockets and can go at whatever pace he likes! Wow! What pace is he going at? Well... have you heard of Zeno's paradox?

Offline woods170

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Re: National Space Council Reestablished
« Reply #104 on: 10/06/2017 06:44 AM »
Wait? You actually expect policy to come from this? Seriously?

Sure, at least a doubling down of the existing hot air in the last authorization act.
That's not policy. That's is sticking to the status quo.

Policy isn't worth the paper it's written on when it's not funded. Just sayin'

The pork must flow.
Bah. The pork is flowing just fine by just sticking to the status quo. They don't need policy for that. Why would US Congress fund a new direction (back to the Moon) when the current direction (Rocket to nowhere) is good enough to ensure their re-election?

Offline QuantumG

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Re: National Space Council Reestablished
« Reply #105 on: 10/06/2017 06:50 AM »
Why, *more* pork, of course.
Jeff Bezos has billions to spend on rockets and can go at whatever pace he likes! Wow! What pace is he going at? Well... have you heard of Zeno's paradox?

Offline sanman

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Re: National Space Council Reestablished
« Reply #106 on: 10/06/2017 07:05 AM »
The pork must flow.

But that'll work now - because of the Kweesatz Haderach (literally, the One Who Provided the Shortcut - reusability)

Flowing pork through the new situation will now yield much better results than before

Offline Star One

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Re: National Space Council Reestablished
« Reply #107 on: 10/06/2017 02:28 PM »
So nobody picked up Griffin wants the military to go back to design and build their own launch vehicle instead of using commercial ones?

I took it more as keeping ULA around even when they become 10x the price of SpaceX... because national security.
If they wanted guaranteed access to space through the use of multiple launchers why not just have Space X & Blue Origin.

Online AncientU

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Re: National Space Council Reestablished
« Reply #108 on: 10/06/2017 03:21 PM »
So nobody picked up Griffin wants the military to go back to design and build their own launch vehicle instead of using commercial ones?

Is this guy evil or what?

Did you notice the deafening silence in the room after he said it?
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Online AncientU

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Re: National Space Council Reestablished
« Reply #109 on: 10/06/2017 04:11 PM »
The US should have never switched its attention to Mars, talk about thinking you can run before you’ve even crawled.

Everything depends on what the national goal will be, and we don't know what that will yet. And as has been proven many times, just having a goal doesn't mean that Congress will fund the effort.

Presidents have been wanting to go to Mars for decades, yet the cost of going there has been too high for Congress to agree to fund. As for returning to the Moon, the Constellation program was cancelled by Congress partially due to it's high cost, and nothing has changed since then.

So other than a new Administration being in power, what makes what V.P. Pence proposes more likely to happen than any other BEO plan in the past?

The difference this time could be that the private sector may go with or without the USG 'leadership' -- a forcing function that makes politicians worry that they may miss out on 'leading' (a.k.a., pork) and prestige (a.k.a., pork).  They may actually have to explain why so many US Dollars have been spent on so many wasted projects...   ...naaaah, that'l never happen.
"If we shared everything [we are working on] people would think we are insane!"
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Offline yg1968

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Re: National Space Council Reestablished
« Reply #110 on: 10/07/2017 01:37 AM »
I want my 2.5 hours of sleep back, but I look forward to seeing the policy that comes out of this.

Wait? You actually expect policy to come from this? Seriously?

Policy isn't worth the paper it's written on when it's not funded. Just sayin'

They have 45 days to make detailed recommendations to the President. I think that Pence takes his role seriously.

Quote
The Council accepted a recommendation by Pence that the U.S. “will lead in the return of humans to the moon for long-term exploration, followed by human missions to Mars and other destinations,” he said. That recommendation will be incorporated into a decision memo to be submitted to the president.

“You’ve got a big job ahead of you,” Pence said to NASA Acting Administrator Robert Lightfoot, representing the agency on the Council. “The Council is going to need the whole team at NASA to work with the Office of Management and Budget to provide the president with a recommended plan to fill that policy.” Pence asked that the plan be submitted within 45 days.

http://spacenews.com/national-space-council-calls-for-human-return-to-the-moon/
« Last Edit: 10/07/2017 01:38 AM by yg1968 »

Offline MATTBLAK

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Re: National Space Council Reestablished
« Reply #111 on: 10/07/2017 01:54 AM »
Let's hope that it's not a plan hammered out over a couple dozen long evenings and weekends... Only to be (ultimately) roundly ignored as most have been over the years :(
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Offline savuporo

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Re: National Space Council Reestablished
« Reply #112 on: 10/07/2017 03:56 AM »
Really the only question I have. Is this the moment for Resource Prospector to rise like a Phoenix?

It is a distant stepchild of the last "to the Moon, Alice" proclamation after all, otherwise known as RLEP-2
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Offline gosnold

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Re: National Space Council Reestablished
« Reply #113 on: 10/07/2017 09:47 AM »
A look back at previous Moon/Mars explorations plans by Eric Berger in Ars Technica:
Are we really going to the Moon? History isn’t kind to presidential plans
I would add to the part about the Obama administration what Blackstar told us here, that the failure to include Congress early in the process resulted in them taking back control of the program, and gave us SLS and Orion.

Online AncientU

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Re: National Space Council Reestablished
« Reply #114 on: 10/07/2017 12:57 PM »
A look back at previous Moon/Mars explorations plans by Eric Berger in Ars Technica:
Are we really going to the Moon? History isn’t kind to presidential plans
I would add to the part about the Obama administration what Blackstar told us here, that the failure to include Congress early in the process resulted in them taking back control of the program, and gave us SLS and Orion.

NASA is the proper venue for developing a technical plan.  How well it is vetted in Congress will have much sway on its fate.  So far, this administration doesn't have a good track record* of assembling a consensus on the Hill.

* Sorry for the gross understatement.
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Offline the_other_Doug

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Re: National Space Council Reestablished
« Reply #115 on: 10/07/2017 01:14 PM »
A look back at previous Moon/Mars explorations plans by Eric Berger in Ars Technica:
Are we really going to the Moon? History isn’t kind to presidential plans
I would add to the part about the Obama administration what Blackstar told us here, that the failure to include Congress early in the process resulted in them taking back control of the program, and gave us SLS and Orion.

I think this discussion needs to go into Space Policy, to be honest.   
« Last Edit: 10/07/2017 02:13 PM by Lar »
-Doug  (With my shield, not yet upon it)

Offline TrevorMonty

Re: National Space Council Reestablished
« Reply #116 on: 10/07/2017 01:21 PM »
The US should have never switched its attention to Mars, talk about thinking you can run before you’ve even crawled.

Everything depends on what the national goal will be, and we don't know what that will yet. And as has been proven many times, just having a goal doesn't mean that Congress will fund the effort.

Presidents have been wanting to go to Mars for decades, yet the cost of going there has been too high for Congress to agree to fund. As for returning to the Moon, the Constellation program was cancelled by Congress partially due to it's high cost, and nothing has changed since then.

So other than a new Administration being in power, what makes what V.P. Pence proposes more likely to happen than any other BEO plan in the past?

The difference this time could be that the private sector may go with or without the USG 'leadership' -- a forcing function that makes politicians worry that they may miss out on 'leading' (a.k.a., pork) and prestige (a.k.a., pork).  They may actually have to explain why so many US Dollars have been spent on so many wasted projects...   ...naaaah, that'l never happen.
Commercial sector is close to starting robotic missons to moon with initial missions privately funded. With or without NASA leadership and government money commercial sector is going to moon. NASA  leader project with funding will help speed things up.

Offline Lar

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Re: National Space Council Reestablished
« Reply #117 on: 10/07/2017 02:13 PM »
I'd like this discussion to stay here so all can participate. The way to get that to happen is to not debate policy, and not make any statements about the various administrations and congresses that an outside observer would see as commentary about the merits. It's tough. But I hope you can do it.
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Offline QuantumG

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Re: National Space Council Reestablished
« Reply #118 on: 10/08/2017 10:10 PM »
If they wanted guaranteed access to space through the use of multiple launchers why not just have Space X & Blue Origin.

If Blue would ever launch anything I'm sure it'd be seriously considered.
Jeff Bezos has billions to spend on rockets and can go at whatever pace he likes! Wow! What pace is he going at? Well... have you heard of Zeno's paradox?

Offline savuporo

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Re: National Space Council Reestablished
« Reply #119 on: 10/08/2017 10:32 PM »
Commercial sector is close to starting robotic missons to moon with initial missions privately funded. With or without NASA leadership and government money commercial sector is going to moon....

Any day now, for real.
Orion - the first and only manned not-too-deep-space craft

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