Author Topic: SpaceX Falcon 9 : Iridium NEXT Flight 3 : Oct 9, 2017: DISCUSSION  (Read 37162 times)

Offline M.E.T.

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 424
  • Liked: 178
  • Likes Given: 12
They seem to have a launches lined up for early and mid-October on the East coast, so their rate really isn't going down.  The target rate for this year is almost twice a month (20-24 launches).
IF (notice the IF) Irma takes a route over Florida, with the eyewall passing over KSC/CCAFS or to the West of it, there will be so much damage that even the lower number of 20 launches will go out the window.

Why? Surely this is a constant, planned for threat in Florida? How can any high launch cadence be planned for if you can't deal with annual hurricane season?

Offline Perchlorate

  • Member
  • Posts: 89
  • Southeastern Virginia
  • Liked: 97
  • Likes Given: 106
They seem to have a launches lined up for early and mid-October on the East coast, so their rate really isn't going down.  The target rate for this year is almost twice a month (20-24 launches).
IF (notice the IF) Irma takes a route over Florida, with the eyewall passing over KSC/CCAFS or to the West of it, there will be so much damage that even the lower number of 20 launches will go out the window.

Based on the 5 a.m. advisory, Irma's eye will pass west of KSC/CCAFS, with them having about a 35% chance of feeling hurricane-force winds.  If this forecast holds, I would not expect debilitating damage.  Irma will have been over land for nearly 24 hours by then.

There certainly are hurricane scenarios which could bring the right side of a Cat 4 or Cat 5 storm directly over the cape, with a far worse outcome.  Irma is not such a scenario.

That said, my best wishes for everyone on the Space Coast; hunker down and be safe.  And, for those south and east who have felt, and will feel, the undiminished brunt of this powerful storm.
« Last Edit: 09/08/2017 10:13 AM by Perchlorate »

Offline kaiser

  • Member
  • Posts: 47
  • Liked: 58
  • Likes Given: 19
They seem to have a launches lined up for early and mid-October on the East coast, so their rate really isn't going down.  The target rate for this year is almost twice a month (20-24 launches).
IF (notice the IF) Irma takes a route over Florida, with the eyewall passing over KSC/CCAFS or to the West of it, there will be so much damage that even the lower number of 20 launches will go out the window.

Why? Surely this is a constant, planned for threat in Florida? How can any high launch cadence be planned for if you can't deal with annual hurricane season?

Seriously?  This is a question?

Surprisingly when people are evacuated, they aren't there receiving stages, integrating payloads, and prepping for launches.  Similarly, when they're back in state and their house is flooded they also still aren't at work, but rather getting the house back in shape to be able to sleep in.

Similarly, while structures may have been built to handle Cat 3/4/5 hurricanes, that doesn't mean that the area doesn't still end up flooded, and that trees don't fall down across roads, that there isn't any debris build up that needs to be cleaned, etc.  Not to mention that the buildings are old.  There's likely a couple of things that will need repair due to it not being quite as strong as when built.  Not to mention that they're built to "withstand" those events, not essentially be able to operate through without any rework and zero damage, zero down time, etc.  That's basically impossible to ask for.

A force of nature like this will *always* disrupt major operations on land where it hits, no matter how thoroughly you plan for it.  Period.

Online Michael Baylor

  • Full Member
  • *
  • Posts: 136
  • Liked: 122
  • Likes Given: 83
Ok, if we are going to continue to talk about the impact that Irma will have on SpaceX's Florida launch capabilities, can we please not do so on the Iridium 3 thread? Last time I checked Vandenberg was not in the path of Irma.

Online gongora

  • Global Moderator
  • Full Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1777
  • US
  • Liked: 1206
  • Likes Given: 917
SpaceX just filed another FCC permit application for this launch (the other permit applications for launch vehicle communications and first stage recovery were filed about 6 weeks ago.)

Quote
This STA covers the experimental radar usage during first-stage final descent, following a Falcon 9 launch from Vandenberg Air Force Base. This request is limited to the brief radar usage prior landing. Launch vehicle flight communications for this mission are covered by a separate STA.

Online SmallKing

  • Full Member
  • **
  • Posts: 274
  • Zhejiang, China
  • Liked: 116
  • Likes Given: 160
Quote
Matt Desch‏ @IridiumBoss  22h22 hours ago
More
Replying to @IridiumBoss @AleLovesio @SpaceX
Final plan for launch 3: SV100(renamed as SV127),107,119,122,125,126,132,133,136,139.  All at VAFB, mated, and ready for 10/4 launch!
https://twitter.com/IridiumBoss/status/909436252092583937
Some are bound for happiness, some are bound to glory, some are bound to live with less, who can tell your story?

Online gongora

  • Global Moderator
  • Full Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1777
  • US
  • Liked: 1206
  • Likes Given: 917
Currently planned orbital planes for the rest of the launches:
Quote
Tweet from Matt Desch:
No, try instead: L5: P1, L6(5): P6, L7: P5, L8: P3 (1 -> P2, 1 -> P4).  Really feel like I should yell "Bingo!" at this point though...

Reply to question about whether rocket stages and fairings at Vandenberg for Flight 3:
Quote
Tweet from Matt Desch:
Yep! T minus 17 days...

Offline Steven Pietrobon

  • Member
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 12568
  • Adelaide, Australia
    • Steven Pietrobon's Space Archive
  • Liked: 2743
  • Likes Given: 408
Matt Desch‏ @IridiumBoss  22h22 hours ago
Replying to @IridiumBoss @AleLovesio @SpaceX
Final plan for launch 3: SV100(renamed as SV127),107,119,122,125,126,132,133,136,139.  All at VAFB, mated, and ready for 10/4 launch!

Gunter's Space page says that SV126 was launched on Iridium 2.

http://space.skyrocket.de/doc_sdat/iridium-next.htm
Akin's Laws of Spacecraft Design #1:  Engineering is done with numbers.  Analysis without numbers is only an opinion.

Offline Skyrocket

  • Extreme Veteran
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2054
  • Frankfurt am Main, Germany
  • Liked: 268
  • Likes Given: 61
Matt Desch‏ @IridiumBoss  22h22 hours ago
Replying to @IridiumBoss @AleLovesio @SpaceX
Final plan for launch 3: SV100(renamed as SV127),107,119,122,125,126,132,133,136,139.  All at VAFB, mated, and ready for 10/4 launch!

Gunter's Space page says that SV126 was launched on Iridium 2.

http://space.skyrocket.de/doc_sdat/iridium-next.htm

Matt Desch corrected his tweet (https://twitter.com/IridiumBoss/status/909974014621253632):

Quote
Replying to @Skyrocket71 @AleLovesio @SpaceX
You are right - my bad.  Let me try again: 107, 119, 122, 125, 127, 129, 132, 133, 136, 139.   Thanks for double checking me.


Offline zubenelgenubi

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 1063
  • Arc to Arcturus, then Spike to Spica
  • Commonwealth of Virginia
  • Liked: 220
  • Likes Given: 606
The next two SpaceX/Falcon 9 launches are re-aligned to:

October 7, SES-11/EchoStar 105, KSC LC-39A

October 9, Iridium Next Flight 3, Vandenberg SLC-4E.

Are we seeing the minimum amount of time between East Coast/West Coast launches that SpaceX current staffing levels can support?
Support your local planetarium!

Offline ZachS09

The next two SpaceX/Falcon 9 launches are re-aligned to:

October 7, SES-11/EchoStar 105, KSC LC-39A

October 9, Iridium Next Flight 3, Vandenberg SLC-4E.

Are we seeing the minimum amount of time between East Coast/West Coast launches that SpaceX current staffing levels can support?

It's been done before with BulgariaSat 1 and Iridium-NEXT F2. Both launched within 49 hours.
"Liftoff of Falcon 9: the world's first reflight of an orbital-class rocket."

Offline zubenelgenubi

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 1063
  • Arc to Arcturus, then Spike to Spica
  • Commonwealth of Virginia
  • Liked: 220
  • Likes Given: 606
Another note/"fun fact":
October 9 may be a "three-fer" launch day!

Iridium Next Flight 3,

QZS-4 from Tanegashima,

and VRSS-2 from Jiuquan.

We'll see if this all actually happens this way.
Support your local planetarium!

Offline zubenelgenubi

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 1063
  • Arc to Arcturus, then Spike to Spica
  • Commonwealth of Virginia
  • Liked: 220
  • Likes Given: 606
The next two SpaceX/Falcon 9 launches are re-aligned to:

October 7, SES-11/EchoStar 105, KSC LC-39A

October 9, Iridium Next Flight 3, Vandenberg SLC-4E.

Are we seeing the minimum amount of time between East Coast/West Coast launches that SpaceX current staffing levels can support?

It's been done before with BulgariaSat 1 and Iridium-NEXT F2. Both launched within 49 hours.

Yes, and thank you for pointing that out.

Another way of asking the question--given current SpaceX staffing, is it IMPOSSIBLE to launch East Coast/West Coast within significantly less than 48 hours?  36 hours?  24 hours?  Less?
Support your local planetarium!

Offline mn

  • Full Member
  • **
  • Posts: 200
  • United States
  • Liked: 93
  • Likes Given: 31
The next two SpaceX/Falcon 9 launches are re-aligned to:

October 7, SES-11/EchoStar 105, KSC LC-39A

October 9, Iridium Next Flight 3, Vandenberg SLC-4E.

Are we seeing the minimum amount of time between East Coast/West Coast launches that SpaceX current staffing levels can support?

It's been done before with BulgariaSat 1 and Iridium-NEXT F2. Both launched within 49 hours.

Yes, and thank you for pointing that out.

Another way of asking the question--given current SpaceX staffing, is it IMPOSSIBLE to launch East Coast/West Coast within significantly less than 48 hours?  36 hours?  24 hours?  Less?

Those two launches could have been much closer together and Chris B confirmed that they CAN do both in one day if the schedule works out that way.

Static Fire is June 20. Two individual launch teams, so possible to keep to the schedule, even if SpaceX launches BulgariaSat-1 the same day (based on the new back up date to the new NET 19th target).  :o

Offline zubenelgenubi

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 1063
  • Arc to Arcturus, then Spike to Spica
  • Commonwealth of Virginia
  • Liked: 220
  • Likes Given: 606
Thanks, mn.

I knew I'd read something like that in one of the threads.
Support your local planetarium!

Offline vaporcobra

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
From: 30th Space Wing Public Affairs, www.vandenberg.af.mil

Falcon 9 Scheduled for Launch

VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE, Calif. -  Team Vandenberg is scheduled to launch
the third Iridium mission consisting of 10 satellites on a SpaceX Falcon 9
rocket from Space Launch Complex-4 here Monday, Oct. 9, at 5:37 a.m. PDT.

If schedules hold for both launches, 1041's launch and landing would be the second in approximately 37.5 hours.
« Last Edit: 10/04/2017 05:44 AM by vaporcobra »

Online BabaORileyUSA

  • Member
  • Posts: 71
  • Liked: 22
  • Likes Given: 17
https://twitter.com/IridiumBoss/status/915936031706370049

Quote
Getting real!  Weather currently looks good for Monday morning, and all else is on track.  Busy @SpaceX weekend- rooting for SES-11 on Sat!

SES-11 has moved to the 11th.....

Offline Semmel

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 1078
  • Germany
  • Liked: 768
  • Likes Given: 2202
SES-11 has moved to the 11th.....

SES-11 launch is scheduled to 11.11, hope they make the launch time at 11:11. The space geeks would go nuts!

Online gongora

  • Global Moderator
  • Full Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1777
  • US
  • Liked: 1206
  • Likes Given: 917
Some good views of the satellites under construction:


Offline ChrisGebhardt

  • Assistant Managing Editor
  • Global Moderator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 5180
  • ad astra scientia
  • ~1 AU
  • Liked: 1719
  • Likes Given: 307
SES-11 has moved to the 11th.....

SES-11 launch is scheduled to 11.11, hope they make the launch time at 11:11. The space geeks would go nuts!

Um.... SES-11 is Oct. 11... 10/11 or 11/10 depending on what country you're in.

And this is the Iridium thread.
« Last Edit: 10/05/2017 08:06 PM by ChrisGebhardt »

Tags: