Author Topic: SpaceX Falcon 9 : X-37B OTV-5 : September 7, 2017 : DISCUSSION  (Read 246152 times)

Offline Lar

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9 : X-37B OTV-5 : September 2017 : DISCUSSION
« Reply #20 on: 06/06/2017 10:06 pm »
A new block 4 seems riskier than a reused block 3 to me...
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"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Offline old_sellsword

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9 : X-37B OTV-5 : September 2017 : DISCUSSION
« Reply #21 on: 06/06/2017 10:12 pm »
Hardly a mystery here.  Block 4/5 changes not related to rapid reuse were made to satisfy USAF/NASA.  US Govt is conservative with respect to risk profiles.  X-37B is presumably a precious payload compared to "tang and toilet paper" and even NASA hasn't signed off yet for the most risk-tolerant launch category.  Need I go on?

They are rather risk averse, especially as the X-37B is a rather unique and probably expensive payload. On the other hand, reuse will have been proven at least 2 or 3 times by then... perhaps that's enough??

I doubt any new Block 3 vehicles will be available in August, so if they go new it likely will be on Block 4

I misread the original quote, I agree they'll likely fly a new booster instead of a flight-proven one.

A new block 4 seems riskier than a reused block 3 to me...


No way. Remember they've already flown four Block revisions of v1.2 and not only did the public not notice, none of the customers seemed to care either.

Block upgrades aren't as big of changes as people make them out to be. The last one, maybe, considering all the reuse stuff and NASA requirements. But the first four went almost completely under our radar.
« Last Edit: 06/06/2017 10:16 pm by old_sellsword »

Offline QuantumG

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9 : X-37B OTV-5 : September 2017 : DISCUSSION
« Reply #22 on: 06/06/2017 10:16 pm »
In regards to the primary source...

http://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/r-update-1-spacex-wins-launch-of-us-air-force-x-37b-space-plane-2017-6-1002072207

Says this:

Quote
"SpaceX will be sending the next Air Force payload up into space in August," Wilson said during webcast testimony before the U.S. Senate Armed Services Committee. She later specified that the payload would be one of the Air Force’s two X-37B spaceplanes.

Hmm... that seems kinda disconnected. I do hope it's not a misunderstanding. Either way, great news for SpaceX.

Here's the webcast:

https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/hearings/17-06-06-posture-of-the-department-of-the-air-force

Looking for a youtube link.

« Last Edit: 06/06/2017 10:25 pm by QuantumG »
Human spaceflight is basically just LARPing now.

Offline Space Pete

Cool! Reusable spaceplane being launched by a reusable rocket! :)
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Offline Lar

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9 : X-37B OTV-5 : September 2017 : DISCUSSION
« Reply #24 on: 06/06/2017 10:27 pm »
A new block 4 seems riskier than a reused block 3 to me...

No way. Remember they've already flown four Block revisions of v1.2 and not only did the public not notice, none of the customers seemed to care either.

Block upgrades aren't as big of changes as people make them out to be. The last one, maybe, considering all the reuse stuff and NASA requirements. But the first four went almost completely under our radar.

We'll find out, and not too far in the future either... what if it was Block 5, would that change your estimate of the risk estimation by USAF?
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Offline cppetrie

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9 : X-37B OTV-5 : September 2017 : DISCUSSION
« Reply #25 on: 06/06/2017 10:30 pm »
A new block 4 seems riskier than a reused block 3 to me...

No way. Remember they've already flown four Block revisions of v1.2 and not only did the public not notice, none of the customers seemed to care either.

Block upgrades aren't as big of changes as people make them out to be. The last one, maybe, considering all the reuse stuff and NASA requirements. But the first four went almost completely under our radar.

We'll find out, and not too far in the future either... what if it was Block 5, would that change your estimate of the risk estimation by USAF?
They did say Block 5 was supposed to launch later this year. First payload? Maybe. There is perhaps some additional risk, but perhaps less if AF feels the fixes in B5 outweigh the risks. We'll probably find out soon enough. Well, maybe not soon enough. But soon.

Online AnalogMan

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9 : X-37B OTV-5 : September 2017 : DISCUSSION
« Reply #26 on: 06/06/2017 10:36 pm »
In regards to the primary source...

http://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/r-update-1-spacex-wins-launch-of-us-air-force-x-37b-space-plane-2017-6-1002072207

Says this:

Quote
"SpaceX will be sending the next Air Force payload up into space in August," Wilson said during webcast testimony before the U.S. Senate Armed Services Committee. She later specified that the payload would be one of the Air Force’s two X-37B spaceplanes.

Hmm... that seems kinda disconnected. I do hope it's not a misunderstanding. Either way, great news for SpaceX.

Here's the webcast:

https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/hearings/17-06-06-posture-of-the-department-of-the-air-force

Looking for a youtube link.


The SpaceX/X-37B mention happens right near the end of the hearing at about 2hrs 51mins into the webcast.

Online Chris Bergin

Well that's pretty big news for SpaceX on the confidence levels. The video link isn't working for me, so as QG notes - a youtube link or something would be cool.
« Last Edit: 06/06/2017 10:45 pm by Chris Bergin »
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Offline QuantumG

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9 : X-37B OTV-5 : September 2017 : DISCUSSION
« Reply #28 on: 06/06/2017 10:47 pm »
The SpaceX/X-37B mention happens right near the end of the hearing at about 2hrs 51mins into the webcast.

Yah! Sec. Wilson explicitly says the X-37B will be going up on a SpaceX launcher in August. Same breath. No idea why the media are reporting it as two separate utterances.
Human spaceflight is basically just LARPing now.

Offline russianhalo117

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9 : X-37B OTV-5 : September 2017 : DISCUSSION
« Reply #29 on: 06/06/2017 10:58 pm »
Well that's pretty big news for SpaceX on the confidence levels. The video link isn't working for me, so as QG notes - a youtube link or something would be cool.
hearing would recorded on C-Span if it was an open door meeting.

Offline rory

Here's the relevant clip at about 2:30:

« Last Edit: 06/06/2017 11:05 pm by rory »

Online gongora

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9 : X-37B OTV-5 : September 2017 : DISCUSSION
« Reply #31 on: 06/06/2017 11:11 pm »
Sec. Wilson:
Quote
this is the model of the x37 which will be going up again, it's a reusable vehicle and it will be going up again on top of a SpaceX launcher in August
« Last Edit: 06/06/2017 11:11 pm by gongora »

Offline rory

Sec. Wilson:
Quote
this is the model of the x37 which will be going up again, it's a reusable vehicle and it will be going up again on top of a SpaceX launcher in August

If it weren't for the phrasing of the question and the remark about X-37B and/or cubesats being "able to be put on multiple different platforms" I'd be open to the argument that she misspoke. But in context it's fairly definitive:

Quote from: Sen. Martin Heinrich
I also just want to take my last few seconds here and say I think there's the next generation of launch companies that are looking at small payloads, whether Virgin Galactic or Vulcan Aerospace or OATK.

I really encourage you to look at some of those ideas too. I think the more distributed, the more responsive, the more flexible and the quicker we can field some of these things, the quicker we'll be able to meet some of the gaps we have with our adversaries

Offline abaddon

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9 : X-37B OTV-5 : September 2017 : DISCUSSION
« Reply #33 on: 06/06/2017 11:30 pm »
LOL - we all have it wrong - SpaceX will be launching the model of the X-37B that is sitting there on her desk.







I'll see myself out now.

Offline cppetrie

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9 : X-37B OTV-5 : September 2017 : DISCUSSION
« Reply #34 on: 06/06/2017 11:51 pm »
LOL - we all have it wrong - SpaceX will be launching the model of the X-37B that is sitting there on her desk.







I'll see myself out now.
Well that would definitely fit inside the fairing without any issues! And it would probably give the AF a tremendous amount of risk tolerance given the lower cost of that payload.

Online gongora

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9 : X-37B OTV-5 : September 2017 : DISCUSSION
« Reply #35 on: 06/07/2017 12:00 am »
[SpaceNews] SpaceX will launch next secret X-37 Air Force mission
Quote
“The ability to launch the Orbital Test Vehicle on multiple platforms will ensure a robust launch capability for our experiment designers,” Randy Walden, director of the Air Force Rapid Capabilities Office, said in a press release. “We are excited about this new partnership on creating flexible and responsive launch options and are confident in SpaceX’s ability to provide safe and assured access to space for the X-37B program.”

Offline wannamoonbase

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9 : X-37B OTV-5 : September 2017 : DISCUSSION
« Reply #36 on: 06/07/2017 12:07 am »
Wonder if this wasn't going to be announced until the new US flew twice.

Great scoop for SpaceX, exciting and well done. 
Wildly optimistic prediction, Superheavy recovery on IFT-4 or IFT-5

Offline ChrisWilson68

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9 : X-37B OTV-5 : September 2017 : DISCUSSION
« Reply #37 on: 06/07/2017 12:10 am »
Wow, that's unexpected, and wonderful to hear.

Anyone know why there wasn't a public request for bids put out on this launch?  As much as I like the idea of SpaceX winning this launch, it would bother me if they didn't win it in an open bidding process.  Letting all launch providers bid in a public process is really the most important thing.


Offline intrepidpursuit

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9 : X-37B OTV-5 : September 2017 : DISCUSSION
« Reply #38 on: 06/07/2017 12:15 am »
Wow, that's unexpected, and wonderful to hear.

Anyone know why there wasn't a public request for bids put out on this launch?  As much as I like the idea of SpaceX winning this launch, it would bother me if they didn't win it in an open bidding process.  Letting all launch providers bid in a public process is really the most important thing.

I would also be curious to see if we know whether they are launching it for the USAF or for Boeing. If Boeing made the choice to fly on a rocket other than ULA that would be an interesting development.

Offline mme

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9 : X-37B OTV-5 : September 2017 : DISCUSSION
« Reply #39 on: 06/07/2017 12:17 am »
Wow, that's unexpected, and wonderful to hear.

Anyone know why there wasn't a public request for bids put out on this launch?  As much as I like the idea of SpaceX winning this launch, it would bother me if they didn't win it in an open bidding process.  Letting all launch providers bid in a public process is really the most important thing.
An open bidding process for a launch in two months?   I am a fan of open bidding but it's hard to imagine anyone else could do this today.  I think this is more a proof of concept for the AF of "responsive" launch capabilities.
Space is not Highlander.  There can, and will, be more than one.

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