Author Topic: Raptor Upper Stage consolidated thread  (Read 60759 times)

Offline Jim

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Raptor Upper Stage consolidated thread
« on: 05/03/2017 05:55 PM »
Edit/Lar: This thread exists for all  "Raptor Upper Stage" (RUS) related discussion. From this time point forward, posts about RUS may be, in fact should be, moved to this thread. The following commercial announcement explains why this thread exists.

Links to pertinent discussion threads with significant RUS discussion pre this time point:
<PM me>

---
The proposal is that talk of "Raptor Upper Stage" be eliminated from any thread not dealing with "Raptor Upper Stage".  So threads like those dealing with generic FH updates or discussion should have no posts regarding "Raptor Upper Stage".  And that goes for any other generic pre existing threads.  Also, new threads such as NASA's lunar RFI should have no discussion of "Raptor Upper Stage" since that is not in Spacex's plans.  If you want to talk about "Raptor Upper Stage" wrt to another topic, then make a new thread.
« Last Edit: 05/05/2017 01:35 AM by Lar »

Offline M.E.T.

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Re: Raptor Upper Stage consolidated thread
« Reply #1 on: 05/03/2017 05:59 PM »
The proposal is that talk of "Raptor Upper Stage" be eliminated from any thread not dealing with "Raptor Upper Stage".  So threads like those dealing with generic FH updates or discussion should have no posts regarding "Raptor Upper Stage".  And that goes for any other generic pre existing threads.  Also, new threads such as NASA's lunar RFI should have no discussion of "Raptor Upper Stage" since that is not in Spacex's plans.  If you want to talk about "Raptor Upper Stage" wrt to another topic, then make a new thread

My only question is how do you know it is not in their plans? If Musk's update in 6 weeks time states that it IS in their plans, then what? Now, you might well have insight into information directly from SpaceX which others don't have, in which case the matter would be settled. But I don't think you have claimed that, have you?

Offline DavidH

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Re: Raptor Upper Stage consolidated thread
« Reply #2 on: 05/03/2017 06:07 PM »
The proposal is that talk of "Raptor Upper Stage" be eliminated from any thread not dealing with "Raptor Upper Stage".  So threads like those dealing with generic FH updates or discussion should have no posts regarding "Raptor Upper Stage".  And that goes for any other generic pre existing threads.  Also, new threads such as NASA's lunar RFI should have no discussion of "Raptor Upper Stage" since that is not in Spacex's plans.  If you want to talk about "Raptor Upper Stage" wrt to another topic, then make a new thread

My only question is how do you know it is not in their plans? If Musk's update in 6 weeks time states that it IS in their plans, then what? Now, you might well have insight into information directly from SpaceX which others don't have, in which case the matter would be settled. But I don't think you have claimed that, have you?

Because it's been hashed over and over and over and over and the rest of us are sick of hearing about it. I don't have time to keep hearing about it in every thread that has nothing to do with a Raptor Upper Stage. Please keep it off the other threads.
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Online abaddon

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Re: Raptor Upper Stage consolidated thread
« Reply #3 on: 05/03/2017 07:36 PM »
If Musk's update in 6 weeks time states that it IS in their plans, then what?
Then.... there's this great thread to discuss it?

Online Jdeshetler

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Re: Raptor Upper Stage consolidated thread
« Reply #4 on: 05/03/2017 07:44 PM »
If Musk's update in 6 weeks time states that it IS in their plans, then what?
Then.... there's this great thread to discuss it?
What event is going to be held around the middle of June?

Offline sevenperforce

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Re: Raptor Upper Stage consolidated thread
« Reply #5 on: 05/03/2017 08:26 PM »
Can you perhaps explain (at least generally) why you're so certain a Raptor US for F9/FH is completely out of the question? Because the AF Press Release from last January seemed really specific.

Online Eagandale4114

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Re: Raptor Upper Stage consolidated thread
« Reply #6 on: 05/03/2017 08:30 PM »
If Musk's update in 6 weeks time states that it IS in their plans, then what?
Then.... there's this great thread to discuss it?
What event is going to be held around the middle of June?

Musk tweeted that there will be an ITS update in about 6 weeks.

Quote from: elon
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/858908487018926080

Erik Cleven: I really enjoyed watching it! Can we expect an update on the ITS soon? Curious to learn more about the architecture and new developments.

Elon: Yeah, will probably publish an update in six weeks or so

« Last Edit: 05/03/2017 08:31 PM by Eagandale4114 »

Online GWH

Re: Raptor Upper Stage consolidated thread
« Reply #7 on: 05/03/2017 08:40 PM »
I agree that the Raptor Upper stage shouldn't creep into every thread, even though I personally think it would be a worthwhile development for SpaceX.  It's still off topic for any thread not dedicated to this one thing in particular.

Offline MikeAtkinson

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Re: Raptor Upper Stage consolidated thread
« Reply #8 on: 05/03/2017 08:42 PM »
The proposal is that talk of "Raptor Upper Stage" be eliminated from any thread not dealing with "Raptor Upper Stage".  So threads like those dealing with generic FH updates or discussion should have no posts regarding "Raptor Upper Stage".  And that goes for any other generic pre existing threads.  Also, new threads such as NASA's lunar RFI should have no discussion of "Raptor Upper Stage" since that is not in Spacex's plans.  If you want to talk about "Raptor Upper Stage" wrt to another topic, then make a new thread

Agree totally.

I personally think there will be a Raptor upper state at some point, however we know that SpaceX are putting lots of investment into the existing upper stage for reuse and longer duration, so lets talk about those developments that are happening in the appropriate threads and confine speculation to a single thread. That way the same speculation will not be made a dozen times.

If Musk's update on ITS plans say there is going to be a Raptor upper stage for FH, or F9 or a mini-ITS or whatever, we can then discuss that information in the relevant threads. Until that time there is little extra that can be added to what has already been said (and usually said many times in many threads).

Offline Lar

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Re: Raptor Upper Stage consolidated thread
« Reply #9 on: 05/03/2017 08:59 PM »
I think the RUS [1] is polluting a lot of otherwise fairly nonwandery[2] threads. Clearly at least one other user does too, so they started this most meta of meta threads.

How about this. When you see a RUS[1] post, don't let it bite you. Press the report to mod button. If you're feeling particularly helpful, include the thread number you think it belongs in (I just did a quick boo and didn't see a thread in the 19 seconds I searched or else I would have put it here). Mods will remove or delete.

Because yeah.

Also, don't start metathreads like this please... no matter how vexed you are. Or at least put it in the right section!  http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?board=50.0 (the NSF internal help/questions section)  Because, believe it or not, not every thread belongs in SpaceX general. I know, right?

 I might turn this thread into the actual thread we discuss RUS in from now on if I can't find a better one ... Jim'll LOVE it that HIS post is the thread starter (just wait till I edit it... LOL)

Edit: Did.


1 - no, not Rodents of Unusual Size
2 - what do you mean that's not a word????
« Last Edit: 05/05/2017 01:35 AM by Lar »
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Offline Nomadd

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Re: Raptor Upper Stage consolidated thread
« Reply #10 on: 05/03/2017 09:16 PM »
Can you perhaps explain (at least generally) why you're so certain a Raptor US for F9/FH is completely out of the question? Because the AF Press Release from last January seemed really specific.
Because it hasn't been done, and nothing new is possible.

Offline rakaydos

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Re: Raptor Upper Stage consolidated thread
« Reply #11 on: 05/03/2017 09:18 PM »
I've been converted to the "no raptor upper stage on falcon family" belief.

It does provide some benifit, before ITS comes online. But once ITS comes online it's entirely obsolite, which puts a cap on how much it can earn for SpaceX over what the Mvac stage can. And it's pretty clear that how much it can earn is less than how much it would cost to develop and build that stage, rebuild a launch site for mixed propellants (displacing normal paying flights, which counts as a cost), and other expences of such a program.

Edit: Concerning the air force contract- Goverment asks for crazy stuff all the time. SpaceX already filled out the minimum to get paid, and while they will be using what they learned to get ITS ready, they have no reason to follow george lucas into prequel-land.
« Last Edit: 05/03/2017 09:21 PM by rakaydos »

Offline Johnnyhinbos

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Re: Raptor Upper Stage consolidated thread
« Reply #12 on: 05/03/2017 09:19 PM »
I think the RUS [1] is polluting a lot of otherwise fairly nonwandery[2] threads. Clearly at least one other user does too, so they started this most meta of meta threads.

How about this. When you see a RUS[1] post, don't let it bite you. Press the report to mod button. If you're feeling particularly helpful, include the thread number you think it belongs in (I just did a quick boo and didn't see a thread in the 19 seconds I searched or else I would have put it here). Mods will remove or delete.

Because yeah.

Also, don't start metathreads like this please... no matter how vexed you are. Or at least put it in the right section!  http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?board=50.0 (the NSF internal help/questions section)  Because, believe it or not, not every thread belongs in SpaceX general. I know, right?

 I might turn this thread into the actual thread we discuss RUS in from now on if I can't find a better one ... Jim'll LOVE it that HIS post is the thread starter (just wait till I edit it... LOL)




1 - no, not Rodents of Unusual Size
2 - what do you mean that's not a word????
Oh - I was confident RUD stood for Rapid Unsolicited Speculation...
John Hanzl. Author, action / adventure www.johnhanzl.com

Offline whitelancer64

Re: Raptor Upper Stage consolidated thread
« Reply #13 on: 05/03/2017 09:27 PM »
Can you perhaps explain (at least generally) why you're so certain a Raptor US for F9/FH is completely out of the question? Because the AF Press Release from last January seemed really specific.

1. The USAF contract calls only for the development and build of a prototype, to be demonstrated in a USAF-supervised set of tests. No upper stage vehicle design/redesign is funded by the contract.

2. It would require a ton of new infrastructure on their launch pads.

3. Minimal benefit and great increase in complexity that becomes obsolete with BFR / ITS.
"One bit of advice: it is important to view knowledge as sort of a semantic tree -- make sure you understand the fundamental principles, ie the trunk and big branches, before you get into the leaves/details or there is nothing for them to hang on to." - Elon Musk
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Online nacnud

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Re: Raptor Upper Stage consolidated thread
« Reply #14 on: 05/03/2017 09:29 PM »
2 - what do you mean that's not a word????

Did you know all words are invented...

Offline mikelepage

Re: Raptor Upper Stage consolidated thread
« Reply #15 on: 05/04/2017 04:31 AM »
I might turn this thread into the actual thread we discuss RUS in from now on if I can't find a better one ... Jim'll LOVE it that HIS post is the thread starter (just wait till I edit it... LOL)

Quite possibly the most mischievous thing I've seen a moderator do on any forum, ever.  ;D

It seems to me the main issue is, how does creating a raptor upper stage make it more reusable? (since that's the only thing that could pay for the added logistics costs of using/storing multiple propellents on the pad).

EDIT: and 2) does this serve as a developmental pathway to ITS? or will it be obsoleted by ITS?
« Last Edit: 05/04/2017 04:33 AM by mikelepage »

Offline M.E.T.

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Re: Raptor Upper Stage consolidated thread
« Reply #16 on: 05/04/2017 04:41 AM »
And there is the scenario that ITS proves far more difficult- perhaps almost impossible - to build, whether due to fatal flaws in the composite construction approach, or due to the impracticality of using 42 engines etc. In that case, a more powerful Falcon Heavy upper stage may be the consolation prize they settle for while going back to the drawing board for their BFR.

Not saying that will happen, in fact I fervently hope ITS develops as planned. But it is not set in stone yet.

Offline gospacex

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Re: Raptor Upper Stage consolidated thread
« Reply #17 on: 05/04/2017 08:20 AM »
I've been converted to the "no raptor upper stage on falcon family" belief.

It does provide some benifit, before ITS comes online.

It's not known when ITS would come online. 2022, say? That's 5 years from now.

Quote
But once ITS comes online it's entirely obsolite, which puts a cap on how much it can earn for SpaceX over what the Mvac stage can. And it's pretty clear that how much it can earn is less than how much it would cost to develop and build that stage

A large fraction of the cost is in developing the engine, and know what? SpaceX is _already_ developing this engine. They already spending these money, they can not be "saved".

Also, with Raptor upper stage, they can drop MVac (which is "three times more expensive than sea-level Merlins").

Offline rakaydos

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Re: Raptor Upper Stage consolidated thread
« Reply #18 on: 05/04/2017 08:38 AM »
I've been converted to the "no raptor upper stage on falcon family" belief.

It does provide some benifit, before ITS comes online.

It's not known when ITS would come online. 2022, say? That's 5 years from now.

Quote
But once ITS comes online it's entirely obsolite, which puts a cap on how much it can earn for SpaceX over what the Mvac stage can. And it's pretty clear that how much it can earn is less than how much it would cost to develop and build that stage

A large fraction of the cost is in developing the engine, and know what? SpaceX is _already_ developing this engine. They already spending these money, they can not be "saved".

Also, with Raptor upper stage, they can drop MVac (which is "three times more expensive than sea-level Merlins").

Yes, yes, "It wont cost THAT much to make" and "It does things Falcon heavy cant now." I get that.

The problem is that the "things it does that falcon cant" isnt big enough to cover even "Doesnt cost that much," especially since infrastructure changes (fuel lines on the erector, ect) actually would -reduce- the number of paying flights compared to a kerlox-only falcon family.

ITS cant use the falcon pads anyway, so there's no reason to shut down the falcon pads to add methlox.

Offline M.E.T.

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Re: Raptor Upper Stage consolidated thread
« Reply #19 on: 05/04/2017 09:12 AM »
I've been converted to the "no raptor upper stage on falcon family" belief.

It does provide some benifit, before ITS comes online.

It's not known when ITS would come online. 2022, say? That's 5 years from now.

Quote
But once ITS comes online it's entirely obsolite, which puts a cap on how much it can earn for SpaceX over what the Mvac stage can. And it's pretty clear that how much it can earn is less than how much it would cost to develop and build that stage

A large fraction of the cost is in developing the engine, and know what? SpaceX is _already_ developing this engine. They already spending these money, they can not be "saved".

Also, with Raptor upper stage, they can drop MVac (which is "three times more expensive than sea-level Merlins").

Yes, yes, "It wont cost THAT much to make" and "It does things Falcon heavy cant now." I get that.

The problem is that the "things it does that falcon cant" isnt big enough to cover even "Doesnt cost that much," especially since infrastructure changes (fuel lines on the erector, ect) actually would -reduce- the number of paying flights compared to a kerlox-only falcon family.

ITS cant use the falcon pads anyway, so there's no reason to shut down the falcon pads to add methlox.

Yip. I'm pretty much converted to this viewpoint. But it would be sad if this situation (Falcon architecture only) lasts much longer than planned, if ITS say only comes online in 2035 instead of 2025 or something along those lines. Then SpaceX is going to start falling behind their competitors, and that doesn't seem like the type of company they aspire to be.

Hence my view that ITS has to be developed as soon as possible, then.

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