Author Topic: Blue Origin Lunar Settlement Proposal  (Read 7318 times)

Offline feynmanrules

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Blue Origin Lunar Settlement Proposal
« on: 03/02/2017 11:59 PM »
Bezo Pitches NASA with a Amazon-Prime-Lunar shipping service  :

Quote
The memo urges the space agency to back an Amazon-like shipment service for the moon that would deliver gear for experiments, cargo and habitats by mid-2020, helping to enable “future human settlement” of the moon. (Bezos, the founder of Amazon.com, owns The Washington Post.)

“It is time for America to return to the Moon — this time to stay,” Bezos said in response to emailed questions from The Post. “A permanently inhabited lunar settlement is a difficult and worthy objective. I sense a lot of people are excited about this.”

The Post obtained a copy of the white paper, marked “proprietary and confidential,” and the company then confirmed its authenticity and agreed to answer questions about it.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-switch/wp/2017/03/02/an-exclusive-look-at-jeff-bezos-plan-to-set-up-amazon-like-delivery-for-future-human-settlement-of-the-moon

(First thread I've started, so if I can do better please lmk)

Also:Chris no-doubt happy to see Bezos jet-ski in 1/6th gravity.

Offline tea monster

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Re: Blue Origin Lunar Settlement Proposal
« Reply #1 on: 03/03/2017 12:05 AM »
Any details on the vehicles?

Online russianhalo117

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Re: Blue Origin Lunar Settlement Proposal
« Reply #2 on: 03/03/2017 12:07 AM »
Amazon Prime to DRO and LLO :D

Jeff if IKEA asks for a ride say no. It will be better for society than the viking flu you catch at Dreamhack.
« Last Edit: 03/03/2017 12:09 AM by russianhalo117 »

Offline Coastal Ron

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Re: Blue Origin Lunar Settlement Proposal
« Reply #3 on: 03/03/2017 02:45 AM »
Essentially Bezos is offering to do for the Moon what Musk is offering to do for Mars - be the transportation company.

Which if you think of it, it's pretty good timing for Bezos since the Moon is much closer and he is proposing they could perform their first lunar mission as early as July 2020.  If the Trump Administration thinks they can win re-election (and of course they do), then this could be a compelling proposition for them to support (i.e. Make America Great Again!).

Bezos is actually proposing a lunar lander called "Blue Moon", which can land 10,000 lbs on the surface of the Moon.  And the smart political move?  He's suggesting that it could be launched by the SLS, Atlas V, or their own New Glenn.

More evidence that as space enthusiasts that this is a WONDERFUL time in history!
If we don't continuously lower the cost to access space, how are we ever going to afford to expand humanity out into space?

Online TrevorMonty

Re: Blue Origin Lunar Settlement Proposal
« Reply #4 on: 03/03/2017 03:02 AM »
I estimate 30-35t for wet lander in LEO (440ISP 2-3t dry 5t cargo). This would be about right for NG allowing reuse of booster and inside Vulcan capabilities.

The biggest technical challenge is boil off over the few days in transit. Wouldn't be surprised if they've borrowed a few ideas from ACES.

If they can do this with lander they can also deliver cargo direct to GEO or DSH.
« Last Edit: 03/03/2017 03:03 AM by TrevorMonty »

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: Blue Origin Lunar Settlement Proposal
« Reply #5 on: 03/03/2017 03:15 AM »
Very good!

Let's do this, humanity!
Chris  Whoever loves correction loves knowledge, but he who hates reproof is stupid.

To the maximum extent practicable, the Federal Government shall plan missions to accommodate the space transportation services capabilities of United States commercial providers. US law http://goo.gl/YZYNt0

Offline Eric Hedman

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Re: Blue Origin Lunar Settlement Proposal
« Reply #6 on: 03/03/2017 05:54 AM »
This is getting interesting.  I like what I'm hearing.  This may truly be the dawn of a golden age of human spaceflight.  It's beginning to feel like the 1960s again.   All I can think to say is groovy. 8)

Offline meberbs

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Re: Blue Origin Lunar Settlement Proposal
« Reply #7 on: 03/03/2017 06:14 AM »
I can't say I'm surprised that Blue Origin is looking at going to the moon. I have basically assumed that is where they were headed, even though the only actual hint that I know of is "New Armstrong" being the name of their next rocket after New Glenn. I understand why Musk is planning to go straight to Mars, but Bezos hasn't expressed the specific sentiments that are driving Musk to Mars, and the moon (with a permanent base on it) just makes so much sense as a next technological step, I couldn't imagine Bezos wasn't aiming for it.

I didn't expect that 2020 date for a moon landing though, even if it is just cargo.

Online FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: Blue Origin Lunar Settlement Proposal
« Reply #8 on: 03/03/2017 07:01 AM »
It's almost as if the companies are coordinating their moon announcements ... ULA had their CISLunar1000 workshop, SpaceX announce their moon trip, Bigelow suggests using ACES to deliver a lunar outpost and now Blue Origin with Blue Moon!

Can't work out if there's really some coordination here or if they're jockeying for position while the new administration decides what its space policy will be. (Or both :) )

Of course what's great is that all the pieces are coming together that could truly enable lunar settlement and driven by the commercial sector. Ok a lot is still on the drawing board but SpaceX and Bigelow are both in advanced development/production. For me what's key is that a few years really does feel realistic to put some infrastructure in place. Exciting times.

Edit: added links and corrected typos
« Last Edit: 03/03/2017 07:15 AM by FutureSpaceTourist »

Offline IRobot

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Re: Blue Origin Lunar Settlement Proposal
« Reply #9 on: 03/03/2017 07:27 AM »
I wish we had a 3rd supplier of near future super heavy lift capabilities.

This would make a strong base for any large commercial or state sponsored projects.
Only 2 suppliers adds a lot of risk, as one can go bust or change their strategy, leaving projects grounded.

Of course you can always argue that there is no large demand for that capability, but I think this is one of those cases where you first have to establish the capability and only after the client's projects show up.

Offline sdsds

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Re: Blue Origin Lunar Settlement Proposal
« Reply #10 on: 03/03/2017 07:47 AM »
I think it is worth noting the story mentions a specific lunar location: "The company said it plans to land its Blue Moon lunar lander at Shackleton Crater on the moon’s south pole."

The following sentence implicitly narrows the location further: "The site has nearly continuous sunlight to provide power through the spacecraft’s solar arrays."

So there are two or three such sites on the ridge that forms the rim of Shackleton:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_of_eternal_light#Lunar_south_pole

And just to be clear: nobody's claiming there are permanently shadowed regions up on the ridge, right?
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Offline hektor

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Re: Blue Origin Lunar Settlement Proposal
« Reply #11 on: 03/03/2017 07:47 AM »
Make's me think of Jan Woerner's "Moon village".

Moon Village: A vision for global cooperation and Space 4.0

Online FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: Blue Origin Lunar Settlement Proposal
« Reply #12 on: 03/03/2017 03:23 PM »
Eric Berger's write-up of Blue Moon, based on WP article and Jeff Bezos' comments at the AvWeek awards:

https://arstechnica.com/science/2017/03/jeff-bezos-says-nasa-should-return-to-the-moon-and-hes-ready-to-help/

Offline Phil Stooke

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Re: Blue Origin Lunar Settlement Proposal
« Reply #13 on: 03/03/2017 03:39 PM »
"And just to be clear: nobody's claiming there are permanently shadowed regions up on the ridge, right?"

Yes, there are permanent shadows on the ridge, not just down on the floor of Shackleton!

Every little crater on that ridge (and others like that at Malapert) has a mini-permanent shadow in it.  These mini-shadows are currently seen as the easiest to do near-term prospecting in as people try to figure out what volatiles are trapped in the shaded areas.  I'm not really thinking of a crater 1 m across, though strictly speaking it could have a permanent shadow... but craters 100 m across or so, of which there are plenty, could have enough shadow to be worth studying. 

A rover could perch on the rim of the crater and use a laser to vaporise a puff of volatiles from the crater for analysis, or drive in for a short sampling procedure and back out into sunlight again.  I would encourage looking at the extensive coverage of studies for Resource Prospector for further details - e.g. at the LEAG meeting in the fall of 2016 and the NASA Exploration Science Forum at Ames in the summer of 2012.  There are also route planning studies on Malapert among the LEAG abstracts from last fall.  The all get into these things. 

So as an example, there is a cluster of craters, each  a few hundred m across, right where the Connecting Ridge joins the rim of Shackleton.  Easy access to interesting sites only 1 or 2 km from high-illumination areas.

Online Space Ghost 1962

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Re: Blue Origin Lunar Settlement Proposal
« Reply #14 on: 03/03/2017 04:10 PM »
Essentially Bezos is offering to do for the Moon what Musk is offering to do for Mars - be the transportation company.
Nope, couldn't be more wrong.

He's solely focussed on cargo to the moon, enabled by BO hydrolox props and automated precision landing.

Musk is focussed on people+cargo precision lander in a context allowing development on Mars/other.

You're presuming much more than he says. There's specific reasons for what he says and doesn't say. Listen, don't project.

Very important, because you all want to fantasize than Musk/Bezos are same/like. Not!

Bezos is claiming a supporting role - Amazon Prime to the moon, lowest cost cargo there.

Musk is claiming to be able to do that "landing on the beach head" with ITS first interplanetary flights.

You shouldn't assume more for either - Bezos still just wants "people working in space", and Musk will get people and cargo to be able to "start Mars". But there still has to be something more to make use of these.

So don't be all "space cadet happy" over this. There's a lot more "will" here that might need to happen.

All you've got are a few "enablers".

And don't count on the current hoopla for much - its just a distraction at the moment. When the cost of doing something appears, suddenly things might shift. RIFs are permanent, and deconstruction of institutions too.

Which does not mean that you don't value the moment, one does strike while the iron's hot.

But listen very very carefully to what they say. And timelines.

Now if you want "human exploration", what do you want in the immediate?
 * People in the vicinity of exploration (like free return/LLO/lander/landing/multiple sorties)
 * Means to sustain exploration
 * Returns on the exploration to sustain the means
 * Enough "financial runway" for self-sustaining to eventually kick in


Online Eer

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Re: Blue Origin Lunar Settlement Proposal
« Reply #15 on: 03/03/2017 04:19 PM »
Make's me think of Jan Woerner's "Moon village".

Moon Village: A vision for global cooperation and Space 4.0

Makes me think of Dick Tracy and his moon folks living in a crevice at the poles ...

Offline Comga

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Re: Blue Origin Lunar Settlement Proposal
« Reply #16 on: 03/03/2017 04:31 PM »
I wish we had a 3rd supplier of near future super heavy lift capabilities.

This would make a strong base for any large commercial or state sponsored projects.
Only 2 suppliers adds a lot of risk, as one can go bust or change their strategy, leaving projects grounded.

Of course you can always argue that there is no large demand for that capability, but I think this is one of those cases where you first have to establish the capability and only after the client's projects show up.

And I wish I had a pony.

Long ago there was an ad on TV with a guy standing in a pouring rain in front of a sign for Boston trying to hitch a ride to Los Angles.  A white Corvette stops in front of him.  The window rolls down and a gorgeous blond leans over and says "I'm only going as far as Las Vegas." to which he replies "That's OK.  I'll wait here."

Unless you are being sarcastic and asking for a unicorn.....
What kind of wastrels would dump a perfectly good booster in the ocean after just one use?

Offline sanman

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Re: Blue Origin Lunar Settlement Proposal
« Reply #17 on: 03/03/2017 07:10 PM »
Let's watch that very first Blue Origin video again - starts with the Moon and ends with the Moon, so you know that's what Bezos is focused on:




Musk has the multiplanetary vision right, but Bezos recognizes that the Moon is the lower hanging fruit/branch, to get humanity off-world so that we can become multiplanetary.

But is this somehow Bezos' reply to Musk's circum-lunar flyby mission?
Is this latest proposal from Blue then an attempt to capitalize on the Whitehouse's desire for a lunar mission, or to bring a renewed focus of activity for the Moon?

Haha - be careful, Mr Bezos - don't want somebody arm-twisting you to lower your price near the end, like F-35.  ;)
(sorry, I couldn't resist)
« Last Edit: 03/03/2017 07:16 PM by sanman »

Offline feynmanrules

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Re: Blue Origin Lunar Settlement Proposal
« Reply #18 on: 03/03/2017 07:27 PM »
Essentially Bezos is offering to do for the Moon what Musk is offering to do for Mars - be the transportation company.
Nope, couldn't be more wrong.

CoastalRon is spot on.  A lot of blue orgin's plans are toned-down SpaceX ambitions. 

Here's parallels between two companies plans, expressed in NSF links : 8)

SpaceX : https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2016/04/spacex-debut-red-dragon-2018-mars-mission/
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"Essentially what we're saying is we're establishing a cargo route to Mars," Musk said.
Later.... ITS/BFRs, future settlements, maybe a Boring Cave or two, who knows.

Blue Origin : (this thread)
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“It is time for America to return to the Moon — this time to stay,” Bezos said in response to emailed questions from The Post. “A permanently inhabited lunar settlement is a difficult and worthy objective.

Bezos continues his ability to ride in SpaceX's massive barge wake.

Space companies know we have a president who craves adoration and is ready to spend OPM.   They're hoping he recognizes a significant chunk of humans feel less than adulation for him and want otherwise.

He appears to operate at level of "hey wasn't it great when we went to the moon? we were great, people liked us."    If it's good for space... why not?   I only hope we keep deficits under control.

Agree with GhostWriter- hold off on buying lunar timeshares.    Or at least say "the check is in the Blue Moon".

« Last Edit: 03/03/2017 07:28 PM by feynmanrules »

Offline Coastal Ron

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Re: Blue Origin Lunar Settlement Proposal
« Reply #19 on: 03/03/2017 07:42 PM »
Essentially Bezos is offering to do for the Moon what Musk is offering to do for Mars - be the transportation company.
Nope, couldn't be more wrong.

He's solely focussed on cargo to the moon, enabled by BO hydrolox props and automated precision landing.

Musk is focussed on people+cargo precision lander in a context allowing development on Mars/other.

Differences without distinctions.  Both are focused on solving the transportation side of the equations, not the "what we do when we're there" part.  BO is working on moving people to space, so just because they didn't announce it as part of this effort (which hasn't been officially announced anyways) doesn't mean they wouldn't offer it later as their vehicle plans firm up.

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You're presuming much more than he says. There's specific reasons for what he says and doesn't say. Listen, don't project.

We don't have anything official from Bezos on this, so I'm not listening to anything he says...   ;)

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Very important, because you all want to fantasize than Musk/Bezos are same/like. Not!

I can understand what you're saying without bolding the text.  And again I'd say you are highlighting differences without distinctions - both Musk and Bezos are focused on lowering the cost to access (and travel through) space, which to me has been the initial barrier to expanding humanity out into space.  Adding landers to their capabilities are natural extensions.

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So don't be all "space cadet happy" over this. There's a lot more "will" here that might need to happen.

All you've got are a few "enablers".

I'd argue that what we've been lacking has been "enablers", which is why I'm a happy camper now - we are seeing the potential start of the private sector taking the lead of moving humanity out into space.  We all know NASA won't get a mandate to do that, and the U.S. Government has no interest in sending taxpayers away.  So this is a step in the right direction!

Quote
And don't count on the current hoopla for much - its just a distraction at the moment. When the cost of doing something appears, suddenly things might shift. RIFs are permanent, and deconstruction of institutions too.

Which does not mean that you don't value the moment, one does strike while the iron's hot.

You're being contradictory here.  Don't celebrate.  OK to celebrate.  I think you're experiencing a lot of emotions right now...

Quote
But listen very very carefully to what they say. And timelines.

I really don't care about timelines, I only care about progress.  And I see Musk and Bezos making progress - ON THEIR OWN DIME!

They have the motivation and the means, which no one else has right now, so I'm going to cheer them on.
If we don't continuously lower the cost to access space, how are we ever going to afford to expand humanity out into space?

Offline sanman

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Re: Blue Origin Lunar Settlement Proposal
« Reply #20 on: 03/03/2017 08:26 PM »
Bezos has talked about the need for Infrastructure, like the kind that enabled Amazon to be possible - like the phone telecom system which enabled the data communications for the internet, and the UPS/Fedex/Postal service that he was initially sending parcels through.

So it seems natural he'd go for these more incremental/intermediate steps of first building & stretching vital infrastructure to the Moon, and then farther and farther out.

Bezos doesn't want to venture too much too far out where adequate infrastructure isn't available to sustain it. He wants sustainable expansion, and not mere flags-&-footprints or one-offs. Therefore Bezos wouldn't bother doing a Red Dragon type of mission, since it doesn't do much of anything for sustained presence.

So will Amazon Prime to the Moon offer free shipping under certain circumstances - like if you're sending over a certain amount of goods?

Offline sdsds

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Re: Blue Origin Lunar Settlement Proposal
« Reply #21 on: 03/04/2017 01:57 AM »
"And just to be clear: nobody's claiming there are permanently shadowed regions up on the ridge, right?"

Yes, there are permanent shadows on the ridge, not just down on the floor of Shackleton!

Ahh, thank you for providing this insight!

I suppose it is intuitively obvious this would be so. Yet I wonder if it is obvious that the same phenomena that might be making the floor of Shackleton a cold trap are also at work in these smaller-scale versions.
« Last Edit: 03/04/2017 01:57 AM by sdsds »
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Offline eric_astro

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Re: Blue Origin Lunar Settlement Proposal
« Reply #22 on: 03/04/2017 02:36 AM »
Thumbs up...

But am I missing something?

Red Dragon has NASA agreeing to provide some support help, but instead, is Mr. Bezos trying to force NASA's hand? I watched his award presentation talk (ars technica and geek wire have links), and he said we (Blue) need to have NASA along. If I remember correctly, Mr. Musk has said "our plans will run more slowly without NASA, but we're going".

Offline WindnWar

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Re: Blue Origin Lunar Settlement Proposal
« Reply #23 on: 03/04/2017 02:49 AM »
I'm trying to figure out how you do the lander with an Atlas V 551, I just don't see how it would have the capacity unless they are talking multiple launches.

Offline Ludus

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Re: Blue Origin Lunar Settlement Proposal
« Reply #24 on: 03/04/2017 05:57 AM »
Eric Berger's write-up of Blue Moon, based on WP article and Jeff Bezos' comments at the AvWeek awards:

https://arstechnica.com/science/2017/03/jeff-bezos-says-nasa-should-return-to-the-moon-and-hes-ready-to-help/

This makes it sound quite modest and tentative. It seems peculiar for someone currently building a rocket factory for reusable New Glenn which would be capable of cheaply launching these lunar deliveries to emphasize he needs the cooperation of ULA with Atlas or NASA's SLS which would cost many times as much.

Perhaps this is a pitch toward a Competitive Commercial Moon program, where he wants to emphasize that ULA or SLS could in theory be part of the biz too?


Offline Darkseraph

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Re: Blue Origin Lunar Settlement Proposal
« Reply #25 on: 03/04/2017 07:38 PM »
Eric Berger's write-up of Blue Moon, based on WP article and Jeff Bezos' comments at the AvWeek awards:

https://arstechnica.com/science/2017/03/jeff-bezos-says-nasa-should-return-to-the-moon-and-hes-ready-to-help/

This makes it sound quite modest and tentative. It seems peculiar for someone currently building a rocket factory for reusable New Glenn which would be capable of cheaply launching these lunar deliveries to emphasize he needs the cooperation of ULA with Atlas or NASA's SLS which would cost many times as much.

Perhaps this is a pitch toward a Competitive Commercial Moon program, where he wants to emphasize that ULA or SLS could in theory be part of the biz too?

New Glenn isn't due to even fly a test flight until 2020 and SLS/Atlas V wouldn't cost Bezos a dime in this scenario. It is actually a pretty smart pitch in that it does nothing to appear to undermine SLS/Orion or Blue's commercial partner ULA. And it solves a problem with the SLS architecture the lack of a funded lander without NASA spending anything on R&D. That's a win/win. A NASA developed lander would likely cost a few billion and take the better part of a decade before even flying, which would require a willing Congress to appropriate funds for. That's going to be tough to do, judging by precedent. When a modest base has been built on the Moon, New Glenn or New Armstrong will be well ready to make regular runs to the Moon.

It may even happen that a New Sheppard derived lander gives SpaceX access to the Lunar Surface without them having to develop their own lander, with SpaceX sendng a crew to Lunar Orbit in a Dragon 2.
"For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled." R.P.Feynman

Online Space Ghost 1962

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Re: Blue Origin Lunar Settlement Proposal
« Reply #26 on: 03/04/2017 11:45 PM »
Essentially Bezos is offering to do for the Moon what Musk is offering to do for Mars - be the transportation company.
Nope, couldn't be more wrong.

He's solely focused on cargo to the moon, enabled by BO hydrolox props and automated precision landing.

Musk is focused on people+cargo precision lander in a context allowing development on Mars/other.

Differences without distinctions.  Both are focused on solving the transportation side of the equations, not the "what we do when we're there" part.  BO is working on moving people to space, so just because they didn't announce it as part of this effort (which hasn't been officially announced anyways) doesn't mean they wouldn't offer it later as their vehicle plans firm up.

Sorry you don't see the distinctions. When you are in the business, they are obvious and meaningful. Because they have billion dollar and decade consequences.

BO has announced moving people to suborbital space, with the logical distinction of following up with orbital. Those are billion dollar/decade "things".

CC shows that this is not cheap, easy, or risk free.

Bezos goes out of his way to talk about hydrolox architecture cargo reusable landers / infrastructure, with no ZBO in sight. We're looking at multibillion, multidecade. Not next year. Maturing that to human systems is also a big deal.

Would you like more detail on the distinctions? Remember, not a "happy talk guy" here.

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Quote
You're presuming much more than he says. There's specific reasons for what he says and doesn't say. Listen, don't project.

We don't have anything official from Bezos on this, so I'm not listening to anything he says...   ;)
Then you are wise.

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Quote
Very important, because you all want to fantasize than Musk/Bezos are same/like. Not!

And again I'd say you are highlighting differences without distinctions - both Musk and Bezos are focused on lowering the cost to access (and travel through) space, which to me has been the initial barrier to expanding humanity out into space.  Adding landers to their capabilities are natural extensions.

Distinctions matter a great deal when you bootstrap markets. Get them wrong and your tidy little venture goes up in smoke.

Already, why SX has survived and others before failed has in part been proper choice of choosing distinctions.

Jim and others are on his case, rightly because others including subcooled props and "evolved reuse" seem like possibly bad distinctions. I'd say more than half the traffic on this board is about distinctions.

Quote
Quote
And don't count on the current hoopla for much - its just a distraction at the moment. When the cost of doing something appears, suddenly things might shift. RIFs are permanent, and deconstruction of institutions too.

Which does not mean that you don't value the moment, one does strike while the iron's hot.

You're being contradictory here.  Don't celebrate.  OK to celebrate.  I think you're experiencing a lot of emotions right now...

More about subjectivity. Comes from working with policy makers, investors, and "leaders" - who shift priorities like whims, and on the other side dealing with engineers, project/program managers, scientists - who spend years in "get sht done".

So "always put a good invented crisis to good use". Like now. You can do stuff aligned with that vector. (As you would say "celebrate!).

But ... adhere to the whim/timing ... it will be gone ... possibly taking other stuff too. So in your vernacular - "stop celebrating and secure quarters on short notice".

That way both of the above mentioned groups don't get burned.

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Quote
But listen very very carefully to what they say. And timelines.

I really don't care about timelines, I only care about progress.  And I see Musk and Bezos making progress - ON THEIR OWN DIME!

They have the motivation and the means, which no one else has right now, so I'm going to cheer them on.

I do more than cheer. Care about the timelines/words. Its how you make progress and don't "backslide".

Never thought in the 70's - 90's backsliding was ever going to end.
« Last Edit: 03/05/2017 04:26 PM by Space Ghost 1962 »

Online TrevorMonty

Re: Blue Origin Lunar Settlement Proposal
« Reply #27 on: 03/05/2017 01:30 AM »
I'm trying to figure out how you do the lander with an Atlas V 551, I just don't see how it would have the capacity unless they are talking multiple launches.
A partly fuelled lander would stay within 19t of Atlas and still around 1-2t to surface.

Online savuporo

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Re: Blue Origin Lunar Settlement Proposal
« Reply #28 on: 03/05/2017 06:46 AM »
Make's me think of Jan Woerner's "Moon village".

Moon Village: A vision for global cooperation and Space 4.0

Exactly. If Bezos would be shopping for partners worldwide, he could gather a lot of support for this.
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Offline sdsds

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Re: Blue Origin Lunar Settlement Proposal
« Reply #29 on: 03/05/2017 06:54 AM »
Bezos goes out of his way to talk about hydrolox architecture cargo reusable landers / infrastructure, with no ZBF in sight. We're looking at multibillion, multidecade. Not next year.

This. Except I think you mean ZBO (zero boil off). Or ... what's ZBF except a Cisco router thing?
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Offline Archibald

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Re: Blue Origin Lunar Settlement Proposal
« Reply #30 on: 03/05/2017 11:08 AM »
The rule of thumb for heavy launchers is that 20 mt to LEO roughly translates as 2 mt to the lunar surface. The rule applies to Saturn IB or Titan III as much as H-2A, Ariane 5, Proton, or Atlas 551.

Online Space Ghost 1962

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Re: Blue Origin Lunar Settlement Proposal
« Reply #31 on: 03/05/2017 04:24 PM »
Bezos goes out of his way to talk about hydrolox architecture cargo reusable landers / infrastructure, with no ZBF in sight. We're looking at multibillion, multidecade. Not next year.

This. Except I think you mean ZBO (zero boil off). Or ... what's ZBF except a Cisco router thing?
Correct. Fixing.

Online Navier–Stokes

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Re: Blue Origin Lunar Settlement Proposal
« Reply #32 on: 03/06/2017 02:18 PM »
Aviation Week has posted an article with a few interesting new details (such as Blue Moon's engines):

Blue Origin Developing 10,000-lb. Lunar Polar Lander (free registration required to access full article)
Quote
A robotic lunar lander capable of delivering as much as 10,000 lb. of cargo to a permanent outpost on the rim of the Moon’s polar Shackleton Crater could make its first flight by July 2020, with a little help from NASA. Blue Origin owner Jeff Bezos said on Thursday that his company has been working on a cargo lander that would support a human base set up in a zone of almost full-time sunlight on the crater’s rim. The site is adjacent to the permanently shadowed cold sink inside ...
« Last Edit: 03/06/2017 02:21 PM by Navier–Stokes »

Online TrevorMonty

Re: Blue Origin Lunar Settlement Proposal
« Reply #33 on: 03/06/2017 10:58 PM »
The surprising thing from this article was that Blue will being pursuing ISRU, they will be primary customer of lander. If they can sell a few to NASA for exploration missions even better. 
 

Offline AncientU

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Re: Blue Origin Lunar Settlement Proposal
« Reply #34 on: 03/06/2017 11:07 PM »
The surprising thing from this article was that Blue will being pursuing ISRU, they will be primary customer of lander. If they can sell a few to NASA for exploration missions even better.

Could be part of the collaboration with ULA.  CisLunar 1000 is all about someone supplying water (or its cryogenic constituents) from the Moon.
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Offline daveklingler

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Re: Blue Origin Lunar Settlement Proposal
« Reply #35 on: 03/07/2017 03:17 AM »
Essentially Bezos is offering to do for the Moon what Musk is offering to do for Mars - be the transportation company.
Nope, couldn't be more wrong.

He's solely focussed on cargo to the moon, enabled by BO hydrolox props and automated precision landing.


While I understand your desire to limit speculation, I dispute your use of the words "solely focused".  Blue is working on New Glenn, after all, and they have mentioned a larger rocket named "New Armstrong".  In addition, it has always seemed very evident to me that Jeff Bezos was aiming at going to the lunar surface himself; he has dreamt of going there since boyhood.  To that end, he is carefully building a path, like any good chess player.

I frequently fling poo at people who talk about lunar and Mars colonization by attempting to assert the necessity of an enormous logistical supply chain, in my view the failure point for all non-orbital basing.  Bezos is offering to build one. 

He talks about Atlas V and SLS, but I don't seriously believe that Blue is designing a lunar cargo delivery system based on either of those rockets.  They're placeholders for something he doesn't care to mention. It seems obvious that he would like to use a Blue rocket.  Likewise, I don't seriously believe that Blue is proposing to deliver only cargo to the lunar surface, or even limit itself to 10-ton deliveries.  To that end, I look at New Glenn, and imagine it with a couple of side boosters.

Hmmm...New Glenn with side boosters...now there's a topic worthy of speculation...  :)

Online TrevorMonty

Re: Blue Origin Lunar Settlement Proposal
« Reply #36 on: 03/07/2017 07:57 AM »
The New Glenn with cargo lander should be enough to establish a lunar base along ISRU fuel production. Besides the lander Blue have also been developing a biconic capsule crew vehicle, I'm picking this will be BLEO capable. Given a long live 3rd stage on New Glenn this vehicle should be able to ferry crew to DSH. Add reusable crew lander plus lunar fuel and Blue has an afford lunar transport system.

Online TrevorMonty

Re: Blue Origin Lunar Settlement Proposal
« Reply #37 on: 03/07/2017 01:08 PM »
At 45t to LEO, should be good for about 15t direct to DSH. Enough for 7 man crew vehicle, not sure if it would carry 7 given it is 3day trip.
« Last Edit: 03/07/2017 01:09 PM by TrevorMonty »

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