Poll

When will EM-1 (The first unmanned SLS/Orion mission) launch?

Earlier than November 2018
3 (3.4%)
November 2018
3 (3.4%)
December 2018
5 (5.7%)
January 2019
5 (5.7%)
February 2019
4 (4.5%)
March 2019
5 (5.7%)
April 2019
7 (8%)
May 2019
5 (5.7%)
June 2019
4 (4.5%)
Q3 2019 (July-September)
12 (13.6%)
Q4 2019 (October-December)
11 (12.5%)
2020 or later
24 (27.3%)

Total Members Voted: 88

Voting closed: 06/01/2017 03:47 PM


Author Topic: When will EM-1 Launch  (Read 3038 times)

Online rayleighscatter

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When will EM-1 Launch
« on: 01/22/2017 02:47 PM »
A nice fluffy little poll to see when everyone thinks SLS/Orion will first launch. I baselined it with the current expectation of NET November 2018. I know SLS is a bit polarizing here so let's please be excellent to each other and remember that there are other sections for debating the merits and failings of the system.

Poll runs through May 2017.
« Last Edit: 01/22/2017 03:07 PM by rayleighscatter »

Online deadman719

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Re: When will EM-1 Launch
« Reply #1 on: 01/22/2017 05:03 PM »
Selected 4th Qtr 2019. That guestimate is based on information posted to NSF.

Rob
« Last Edit: 01/23/2017 12:13 AM by deadman719 »

Offline Arb

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Re: When will EM-1 Launch
« Reply #2 on: 01/22/2017 05:11 PM »
Needs a "never" option...

Offline Zed_Noir

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Re: When will EM-1 Launch
« Reply #3 on: 01/22/2017 08:52 PM »
Needs a "never" option...

Just picked 2020 & later. Since that  is open-ended.

Offline sdsds

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Re: When will EM-1 Launch
« Reply #4 on: 01/23/2017 12:02 AM »
I defend my April 2019 prediction with the attached spreadsheet.
Nov 2018 - today() = 648 days.
648 * 1.25 = 810 days.
today() + 810 days = April 2019

Of course you might not like the 1.25 slip factor. And note well the value of today() changes ... daily! ;)
-- sdsds --

Offline ZachS09

Re: When will EM-1 Launch
« Reply #5 on: 01/23/2017 01:21 AM »
I'm sticking with the original November 2018 launch target.
"Liftoff of Falcon 9: the world's first reflight of an orbital-class rocket."

Offline Danderman

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Re: When will EM-1 Launch
« Reply #6 on: 01/23/2017 01:57 AM »
My guess is right after the MLM is launched to ISS.

Offline eric z

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Re: When will EM-1 Launch
« Reply #7 on: 01/23/2017 02:20 AM »
 Please forgive me for saying this, but what purpose does a poll like this serve? There are a lot of folks out there working very hard on this rocket, how does this help? ::) How about a thread for suggestions on strengthening the program, both technically and programmatically? Polls are fun, but ultimately meaningless, as we have recently seen! How about an "Alternative" reality where SLS could launch 4 to 6 times yearly, and a thread as to what could then be accomplished with that launch rate in conjunction with Falcon Family and Arianne and HTV future variants working together in a Master Plan? Just for fun!
« Last Edit: 01/23/2017 02:44 AM by eric z »

Offline savuporo

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Re: When will EM-1 Launch
« Reply #8 on: 01/23/2017 02:35 AM »
My guess is right after the MLM is launched to ISS.

At some point it just makes sense to park MLM on a barge somewhere between Kiribati and Guam and just have it wait for ISS to meet it there.
Orion - the first and only manned not-too-deep-space craft

Offline redliox

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Re: When will EM-1 Launch
« Reply #9 on: 01/23/2017 03:36 AM »
Some delay will probably be inevitable, but I'm willing to believe December of '18 they can manage to hit.
"Let the trails lead where they may, I will follow."
-Tigatron

Offline Lar

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Re: When will EM-1 Launch
« Reply #10 on: 01/23/2017 04:25 PM »
"Never" would be my choice, were it available. Perhaps that's wishful thinking.
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Offline philw1776

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Re: When will EM-1 Launch
« Reply #11 on: 01/26/2017 03:16 PM »
Never
“When it looks more like an alien dreadnought, that’s when you know you’ve won.”

Online RonM

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Re: When will EM-1 Launch
« Reply #12 on: 01/26/2017 03:52 PM »
I think EM-1 will launch sometime in 2019 (guessed 3Q), but I have my doubts EM-2 will ever launch. Too many years and too many dollars between flights. I doubt the new administration and Congress would cancel the program immediately, but the long gaps before SLS goes operational favors switching to a less expensive commercial solution even if it can't lift as much (FH, NG, Vulcan).

Offline alexterrell

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Re: When will EM-1 Launch
« Reply #13 on: 01/26/2017 04:05 PM »
When will President Trump discover that NASA exists, and will he then demand that Canada pays for the SLS launch?

Even if he does notice NASA, he might think SLS is a way of making America Grate again, so perhaps March 2019.

Unpredictable times though.

Online oldAtlas_Eguy

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Re: When will EM-1 Launch
« Reply #14 on: 01/28/2017 12:25 AM »
My guess is that there will be an additional 6 month slip due to encountering some integration unknowns between all the various elements: SRBs, core (and RS-25s), software, pad, VAB, iUS, SM, and Orion). A lot of stuff has to go near perfectly for the Nov 2018 schedule to be met.

Offline Paul451

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Re: When will EM-1 Launch
« Reply #15 on: 01/28/2017 09:17 PM »
Please forgive me for saying this, but what purpose does a poll like this serve? There are a lot of folks out there working very hard on this rocket, how does this help?

We have polls on any topic that interests someone enough to make a poll. Why did this, of all the other polls, so get your goat?

Offline Hog

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Re: When will EM-1 Launch
« Reply #16 on: 01/30/2017 02:56 PM »
Someone told me that a "slip" has already been approved, IIRC it was a 3 month slip to the right.  Looks like I need to change my campground reservations!
Paul

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