Poll

Simple Question - Will Falcon Heavy fly in 2017?

Yay
111 (74.5%)
Nay
38 (25.5%)

Total Members Voted: 149

Voting closed: 01/01/2017 01:29 AM


Author Topic: Will Falcon Heavy fly in 2017?  (Read 9962 times)

Offline Flying Beaver

Will Falcon Heavy fly in 2017?
« on: 12/23/2016 01:29 AM »
Simple Question - Will Falcon Heavy fly in 2017?
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Offline Coastal Ron

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Re: Will Falcon Heavy fly in 2017?
« Reply #1 on: 12/23/2016 02:20 AM »
I voted "Yay".  I based that on the totality of known activity concerning Falcon Heavy, and that unlike prior years SpaceX is now bumping into the need dates of Falcon Heavy launch customers.
« Last Edit: 12/23/2016 02:20 AM by Coastal Ron »
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Online redliox

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Re: Will Falcon Heavy fly in 2017?
« Reply #2 on: 12/23/2016 03:42 AM »
I thought we had a similar question poised for FH, then again it might have been for SLS.  In any case, I think the FH will fly sometime this coming year.
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Online FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: Will Falcon Heavy fly in 2017?
« Reply #3 on: 12/23/2016 06:53 AM »
Prior to September's failure Q1 2017 for FH looked likely so I don't think the slip will push it out of 2017.
« Last Edit: 12/23/2016 06:55 AM by FutureSpaceTourist »

Offline vapour_nudge

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Re: Will Falcon Heavy fly in 2017?
« Reply #4 on: 12/23/2016 10:12 PM »
I've taken the unpopular vote. My expectation is a failure of some sort but that doesn't mean I think it will fly in 2017. If you don't like that....bah humbug

Offline Comga

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Re: Will Falcon Heavy fly in 2017?
« Reply #5 on: 12/23/2016 10:50 PM »
I wish we had this poll done last year and the year before to see if we were always this optimistic.

« Last Edit: 12/24/2016 12:17 AM by Comga »
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Online Barrie

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Re: Will Falcon Heavy fly in 2017?
« Reply #6 on: 12/23/2016 11:50 PM »
I'm afraid events will conspire to prevent a flight, including 39A being just too damn busy (optimism, of a sort)

Offline Comga

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Re: Will Falcon Heavy fly in 2017?
« Reply #7 on: 12/24/2016 12:17 AM »
In fact, there was a poll on FH one year ago.  186 out of 211 people thought it would not only launch in 2015 but do so successfully.
(Please spare us the real and detailed alternatives.)
That's 88% vs 75% in this poll.
Apparently we have become less optimistic in a year's time, not more as one might suspect, given the progress at the launch pad and the photos of real FH hardware.
What kind of wastrels would dump a perfectly good booster in the ocean after just one use?

Online savuporo

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Re: Will Falcon Heavy fly in 2017?
« Reply #8 on: 12/24/2016 12:38 AM »
Someone asked Shotwell at a conference this year "I have same questions as in 2015, when is the RTF and when will Falcon Heavy fly?". I think that guy will have the opportunity to ask that same question again.
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Offline sdsds

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Re: Will Falcon Heavy fly in 2017?
« Reply #9 on: 12/24/2016 01:57 AM »
I chose "yay" but stand by this prediction:
- For most of the year (i.e. through the end of July) there is considerable disagreement about whether FH will fly before year end.

Note how that's a meta-prediction about predictions....
;)
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Offline sdsds

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Re: Will Falcon Heavy fly in 2017?
« Reply #10 on: 12/24/2016 02:01 AM »
Apparently we have become less optimistic in a year's time, not more as one might suspect, given the progress at the launch pad

Just a second. When I voted for August in that other poll, wasn't I implicitly voting for a launch from a completely different launch pad?
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Offline watermod

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Re: Will Falcon Heavy fly in 2017?
« Reply #11 on: 12/24/2016 02:04 AM »
I'm thinking it will become obsolete and be scrapped before it is ever taken to a launch pad.
So, sad to say, I voted NAY.

Offline sdsds

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Re: Will Falcon Heavy fly in 2017?
« Reply #12 on: 12/24/2016 04:47 AM »
it will become obsolete and be scrapped before it is ever taken to a launch pad.

After all that's what happened to Falcon 5, right? That story is quite relevant. Because SpaceX didn't choose Falcon 9 over Falcon 5 on its own. SpaceX needed to be pushed into it....
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Online meberbs

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Re: Will Falcon Heavy fly in 2017?
« Reply #13 on: 12/24/2016 05:52 AM »
In fact, there was a poll on FH one year ago.  186 out of 211 people thought it would not only launch in 2015 but do so successfully.
The 2015 poll took place 2 years ago, not 1 year ago. 1 year ago and everyone would already have known that the FH didn't launch in 2015.

I still stand by my yes vote in this poll. The pad will be ready, hardware is being built, there are a lot more reasons to expect it to launch than past years. I think people are getting into a "delayed before so it will be delayed again" thought process even though the status of readiness has changed. Plus I am sure some are expecting it to be held up by another anomaly investigation, which is more understandable.

Offline Bynaus

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Re: Will Falcon Heavy fly in 2017?
« Reply #14 on: 12/24/2016 07:01 AM »
I think - like I said in the predictions thread - that half the year will pass without launch of the FH (whereas 39A will be very busy with catching up to the backlog). Then Elon will announce that the Red Dragon launch in 2018 will be the inaugural launch of the FH. So "Nay".

Offline MP99

Re: Will Falcon Heavy fly in 2017?
« Reply #15 on: 12/24/2016 08:11 AM »
it will become obsolete and be scrapped before it is ever taken to a launch pad.

After all that's what happened to Falcon 5, right? That story is quite relevant. Because SpaceX didn't choose Falcon 9 over Falcon 5 on its own. SpaceX needed to be pushed into it....
Falcon Heavy with crossfeed has been superceded by FH FT.

It seems that F9 is about to stop evolving, which is a perfect time to make an FH version of it.

Cheers, Martin

Offline Mader Levap

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Re: Will Falcon Heavy fly in 2017?
« Reply #16 on: 12/24/2016 01:23 PM »
Nay. For entire 2017, FH will be always six months in future.
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Offline bolun

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Re: Will Falcon Heavy fly in 2017?
« Reply #17 on: 12/24/2016 02:13 PM »
Yai. I hope so.  ;)

Offline Comga

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Re: Will Falcon Heavy fly in 2017?
« Reply #18 on: 12/24/2016 03:11 PM »
In fact, there was a poll on FH one year ago.  186 out of 211 people thought it would not only launch in 2015 but do so successfully.
The 2015 poll took place 2 years ago, not 1 year ago. 1 year ago and everyone would already have known that the FH didn't launch in 2015.
(snip)

You are so right.  That was TWO years ago.
That was before either of the F9 failures, wasn't it?
Perhaps that explains the increased skepticism.
SpaceX seems less omnipotent, even to fanboys. 
Progress is rapid, but not monotonic.
What kind of wastrels would dump a perfectly good booster in the ocean after just one use?

Offline Arb

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Re: Will Falcon Heavy fly in 2017?
« Reply #19 on: 12/24/2016 08:29 PM »
If FH doesn't fly in 2017 then Red Dragon 2018 isn't going to happen either; it's launch window is April to May (Wikipedia). My vote: Yes.
« Last Edit: 12/24/2016 08:29 PM by Arb »

Offline jongoff

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Re: Will Falcon Heavy fly in 2017?
« Reply #20 on: 12/24/2016 09:00 PM »
In my 2017 predictions I said that Falcon Heavy would at least make it to the pad, but might not fly. I think it's close to 50/50 on them making it to flight this year, but since this poll didn't allow as much weasling, I'm going to be a contrarian and say Nay. While there may be no obvious reason why they couldn't make FH fly this year, there are still things that could go wrong, and we don't know what their priority is for FH now that F9 FT has started to fly.

But as I said, I think there's a decent chance I may be wrong.

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Offline Lar

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Re: Will Falcon Heavy fly in 2017?
« Reply #21 on: 12/24/2016 09:11 PM »
I said yes.

Red Dragon shouldn't be the first FH flight. I expect there would be learnings from that one and maybe one more before they launch Red Dragon. Right to left planning then suggests that the first flight needs to be in 2017 unless Red Dragon slips. And I don't see Elon wanting it to slip.

Metal is being bent for FH as we speak. So yes, I think it will fly in '17.
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Offline sdsds

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Re: Will Falcon Heavy fly in 2017?
« Reply #22 on: 12/25/2016 09:23 AM »
I don't think Red Dragon can be the first FH launch either. There's a reason for that which I haven't seen explicitly mentioned yet: arrival speed at Mars for a 2018 conjunction class mission. Keeping that low gives Dragon the best chance of successfully reaching the surface. And the launch window for low speed Mars approach is narrow.

SpaceX does amazing things, yes. But launching the first-ever vehicle of a particular type within a specific 10 day window? Hmm, that's asking a lot even of them!

[EDIT: The plot is from https://ntrs.nasa.gov/archive/nasa/casi.ntrs.nasa.gov/19980210557.pdf.]
« Last Edit: 12/25/2016 07:38 PM by sdsds »
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Re: Will Falcon Heavy fly in 2017?
« Reply #23 on: 12/26/2016 12:23 PM »
If FH doesn't fly in 2017 then Red Dragon 2018 isn't going to happen either; it's launch window is April to May (Wikipedia). My vote: Yes.

I voted yes. They'll do a test flight this year. First times always run into unforeseen issues, so assuming they've become more careful since september, they won't launch commercially this year until all of those issues are adressed. But the word was 'fly', not 'paid flight'.

Even if they do put a payload on a hardly tested FH, there will be no red dragon before 2022. They still have to relaunch a booster and get Dragon v2 flying. Things take time.

Offline Kansan52

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Re: Will Falcon Heavy fly in 2017?
« Reply #24 on: 01/19/2017 06:14 PM »
Not until SLC-40 is operational. They will not risk the only East coast operational launch site for this test.

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Re: Will Falcon Heavy fly in 2017?
« Reply #25 on: 01/22/2017 02:00 PM »
If SpaceX is at all serious about falcon heavy then it has to fly before development stops on the falcon 9, in order to validate the falcon 9 design that will form part of it. For the heavy to fly often it needs reuse to work well, otherwise it is too expensive, unless the military thinks it is worth supporting.
Too many variables and if further launch failures hit the SpaceX manifest then I can see it being cancelled.
My bet is for a launch at either the end of 2017 or Q1 2018.

Offline Zed_Noir

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Re: Will Falcon Heavy fly in 2017?
« Reply #26 on: 01/22/2017 08:46 PM »
If SpaceX is at all serious about falcon heavy then it has to fly before development stops on the falcon 9, in order to validate the falcon 9 design that will form part of it. For the heavy to fly often it needs reuse to work well, otherwise it is too expensive, unless the military thinks it is worth supporting.
...

The Falcon Heavy as currently configured can lift about twice as much payload mass to LEO & GTO than the Delta IV Heavy at less than a third of the cost. Even in the fully expendable mode. So the USAF will be interested. Heck, ULA is probably hoping for the Falcon Heavy to enter service sooner so they can walk away from SLC-6 and LC-37B along with the retirement of the Delta IV Heavy.

IMO the Falcon Heavy will fly shortly after the first Falcon 9 Block 5.

Offline MATTBLAK

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Re: Will Falcon Heavy fly in 2017?
« Reply #27 on: 01/22/2017 08:55 PM »
...And me... ;)
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Offline QuantumG

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Re: Will Falcon Heavy fly in 2017?
« Reply #28 on: 01/29/2017 10:50 PM »
Just noticed this poll. I would have voted nay. It's always 6 months away.
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Offline moreno7798

Re: Will Falcon Heavy fly in 2017?
« Reply #29 on: 01/30/2017 02:10 AM »
Interestingly, now that the back to launch is out of the way SpaceX's Launch manifest has the FH as the next launch for ARABSAT. Can anyone confirm this?

Offline Zed_Noir

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Re: Will Falcon Heavy fly in 2017?
« Reply #30 on: 01/30/2017 03:08 AM »
Interestingly, now that the back to launch is out of the way SpaceX's Launch manifest has the FH as the next launch for ARABSAT. Can anyone confirm this?

The SpaceX launch manifest on their website just list flights alphabetically not which one is next.

Interestingly there are 6 Falcon Heavy flights listed. But no Red Dragon flights.

ARABSAT (ARABSAT 6A)
FALCON HEAVY DEMO
INMARSAT
INTELSAT
US AIR FORCE (STP-2)
VIASAT

Online ccdengr

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Re: Will Falcon Heavy fly in 2017?
« Reply #31 on: 01/30/2017 03:10 AM »

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Re: Will Falcon Heavy fly in 2017?
« Reply #32 on: 01/30/2017 06:01 AM »
VIASAT
I thought Viasat gave up waiting and jumped to Arianespace... https://spaceflightnow.com/2016/02/15/viasat-trades-in-falcon-heavy-launch-for-ariane-5/

They keep the order for a future launch around 2020-ish if I remember correctly.
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Offline sdsds

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Re: Will Falcon Heavy fly in 2017?
« Reply #33 on: 01/30/2017 06:30 AM »
Interestingly there are 6 Falcon Heavy flights listed. But no Red Dragon flights.

I think this underlines a subtle distinction between the FH Demo flight and RD. FH Demo is ... actually for a particular customer. RD will be purely an internally motivated flight.
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Online high road

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Re: Will Falcon Heavy fly in 2017?
« Reply #34 on: 01/30/2017 07:27 AM »
Just noticed this poll. I would have voted nay. It's always 6 months away.

Well, IIRC it was 'end of the year' before CRS-7, 'next year' for four years before that, and 'two years' before that. The trend seems to be good, anyway.

Offline rockets4life97

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Re: Will Falcon Heavy fly in 2017?
« Reply #35 on: 02/07/2017 01:22 PM »
Actual hardware! 2017 is looking like the year FH finally flies.

Online AncientU

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Re: Will Falcon Heavy fly in 2017?
« Reply #36 on: 02/07/2017 02:05 PM »
Maybe this is the year that everyone will have to choose an alternate vehicle to mock SpaceX's overly-optimistic schedules... may I suggest the BFR?
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Online high road

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Re: Will Falcon Heavy fly in 2017?
« Reply #37 on: 02/09/2017 11:39 AM »
Straigth to BFS? What about Crew Dragon and Red Dragon?

No need to limit 'vehicle' to 'launch vehicle'  ::)

Offline QuantumG

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Re: Will Falcon Heavy fly in 2017?
« Reply #38 on: 02/09/2017 09:24 PM »
Actual hardware is a good sign, but I still think we're a year or two away. Hopefully only a year, then Red Dragon in 2018 is a real possibility.

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Re: Will Falcon Heavy fly in 2017?
« Reply #39 on: 03/08/2017 09:53 PM »
SpaceX are sticking to 2017, at least for now:

SpaceX are still saying FH demo flight this year:

Quote
SpaceX's Shotwell: Falcon Heavy to fly this year #satshow

https://twitter.com/chenry_sn/status/839590030511386625

Offline Danderman

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Re: Will Falcon Heavy fly in 2017?
« Reply #40 on: 03/09/2017 02:49 AM »

IMO the Falcon Heavy will fly shortly after the first Falcon 9 Block 5.


Wait.

Does this mean that FH will have to be re-designed to be compatible with F9B5?

Offline Jim

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Re: Will Falcon Heavy fly in 2017?
« Reply #41 on: 03/09/2017 02:59 AM »

Does this mean that FH will have to be re-designed to be compatible with F9B5?


???  What redesign?  F9FT to F9B5 is iPhone 6 to 6s and not 5 to 6.

Offline Lar

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Re: Will Falcon Heavy fly in 2017?
« Reply #42 on: 03/09/2017 03:17 AM »
Actual hardware is a good sign, but I still think we're a year or two away. Hopefully only a year, then Red Dragon in 2018 is a real possibility.



They slipped that I think. But if they want the tourist cash in '18 they really need to fly FH this year. And crew Dragon.
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Offline rockets4life97

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Re: Will Falcon Heavy fly in 2017?
« Reply #43 on: 04/09/2017 03:03 PM »
A side booster on the test stand! It is looking like 2017 could be a real possibility.

Offline DatUser14

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Re: Will Falcon Heavy fly in 2017?
« Reply #44 on: 04/09/2017 06:46 PM »
If FH doesn't fly in 2017 then Red Dragon 2018 isn't going to happen either; it's launch window is April to May (Wikipedia). My vote: Yes.
Red Dragon is already 2020.
Where can I apply for SpaceX fanboy?.

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