Poll

How many successful landings of F9 first stages (cores) will SpaceX have in 2017?

None, all the landings so far were flukes (or fakes)
0 (0%)
1
0 (0%)
2
0 (0%)
3
2 (1.2%)
4
6 (3.6%)
5
1 (0.6%)
6
11 (6.5%)
7
15 (8.9%)
8
17 (10.1%)
9
17 (10.1%)
10
19 (11.2%)
11
9 (5.3%)
12
19 (11.2%)
13
11 (6.5%)
14
11 (6.5%)
15
4 (2.4%)
16
7 (4.1%)
17
4 (2.4%)
18
4 (2.4%)
19
1 (0.6%)
20 or more
11 (6.5%)

Total Members Voted: 169

Voting closed: 01/19/2017 07:16 PM


Author Topic: POLL: Successful landings of F9 first stages (cores) by SpaceX in 2017?  (Read 9270 times)

my vote of 16 is looking a tad optimistic at this point.... but I'm OK with that.
Maybe, but considering they're becoming very good at this and that all the remaining missions for this year may fly reusable... we could get there with 'just' 6 more flights plus the FH demo  ;)
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Online oldAtlas_Eguy

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I voted 20+.

So with 7 so far and the other 3 EXPD, it will take another 12 which includes the FH demo to get to 20 since 1 of those 14 may be an EXPD flight. Another 12 is actually currently reasonable number for the rest of the year. The turning point is when will LC-40 launch Sept? Oct? Later? The longer the pad is delayed the lower the chances of both a FH demo flight this year and for other launches a combined LC-39A and LC-40 to reach 7 launches for Aug thru Dec.

It is a wait and see on the restoration of LC-40.

Offline Eagandale4114

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Currently sitting at 9.
Probable recovery attempts via this thread
OTV 5
Iridium 3
Koreasat-5
Iridium 4
FH Demo
CRS 13
SES 16
Bangabadhu
Paz


So far this year if SpaceX attempted a landing they did land. If all these missions launch this year (and FH doesn't blow up), they will get 11 more landings this year for a total of 20 landings.

Offline vapour_nudge

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So that's me out of the count now, I voted 9. It is very unlikely that it won't increase in the remaining months of the calendar year- and my conservative (perhaps pessimistic) outlook was clearly wrong.

This is good news if they keep surprising us in this way... well they surprised me at least.

Offline Lar

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Looks like my 16 has a good chance if there is significant manifest slippage, but will (barely) undershoot if they keep up the 2.5 week cadence... and undershoot more if they pick up the pace. (the FH launch, if it happens, hurts me as it gets 3 landings! :) )
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Online AncientU

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Looks like my 16 has a good chance if there is significant manifest slippage, but will (barely) undershoot if they keep up the 2.5 week cadence... and undershoot more if they pick up the pace. (the FH launch, if it happens, hurts me as it gets 3 landings! :) )

I've also chosen 16 and think it might be an underestimate.  FH may destroy our guestimate -- don't mind going out that way.
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Online rockets4life97

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The landings are becoming routine. That was much faster then I (and it looks like most people based on this poll) predicted.

Offline llanitedave

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I voted 10, and it looks like I'll be wrong too.  I'm ecstatic about that!
"I've just abducted an alien -- now what?"

Offline Eagandale4114

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Currently sitting at 9.
Probable recovery attempts via this thread
OTV 5
Iridium 3
Koreasat-5
Iridium 4
FH Demo
CRS 13
SES 16
Bangabadhu
Paz


So far this year if SpaceX attempted a landing they did land. If all these missions launch this year (and FH doesn't blow up), they will get 11 more landings this year for a total of 20 landings.

Now at 12 landings. The probable recovery attempts via this thread

Koreasat 5A
CRS 13
Iridium 4

I think we will get 15 landings this year. If FH does fly late this year we might get 18 but that seems unlikely.

Online intrepidpursuit

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16 seems like the most likely number now the Zuma in the works and FH slipping. What is perhaps more important than the number is that there have been no landing failures since Eutelsat in Q2 2016, and only three ditched cores in 15 flights. Landings are completely operational including dedicated refurbishment facilities and operational reflights. I was a bit disillusioned last year by Amos-6, but SpaceX has definitely followed through this year (except for FH).

I voted 12, thinking that they would have fewer total launches and the Falcon Heavy would fly.

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