Poll

How many SpaceX flights do you anticipate in 2017?

None
0 (0%)
1
1 (0.3%)
2
1 (0.3%)
3
0 (0%)
4
0 (0%)
5
0 (0%)
6
5 (1.6%)
7
5 (1.6%)
8
8 (2.5%)
9
8 (2.5%)
10
24 (7.5%)
11
18 (5.6%)
12
45 (14.1%)
13
36 (11.3%)
14
24 (7.5%)
15
31 (9.7%)
16
25 (7.8%)
17
16 (5%)
18
26 (8.1%)
19
9 (2.8%)
20
14 (4.4%)
21-25
21 (6.6%)
26-30
2 (0.6%)
31-35
0 (0%)
more than 35 !!!!
1 (0.3%)

Total Members Voted: 320

Voting closed: 01/19/2017 06:46 PM


Author Topic: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017  (Read 33331 times)

Offline high road

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #220 on: 08/28/2017 09:36 PM »
Yeah, for guys that still put a four clover on their missions patches, the thirteenth launch could make them anxious. Anxious enough to move the static fire date :p

Offline CraigLieb

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #221 on: 08/31/2017 01:24 PM »
Binning at each end in larger bins makes more sense
0-4
5-8
... by twos
30-34
35 or more
Colonize Mars!

Offline John Alan

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #222 on: 08/31/2017 08:54 PM »
Personally... I rather next year be 1 to 50 in single digit steps and let the members pick to the single digit...
Yes... suks to make a poll that big... but it does collect better data to then analyze the crap out of as we are known to do...   ;)  ;D
« Last Edit: 09/01/2017 01:55 PM by John Alan »

Online Lar

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #223 on: 09/01/2017 04:07 AM »
leaning to that. [1] Or maybe I'll do ONLY odd numbers, LOL[2]

1 - I have no life and it doesn't take that long.
2 - not a serious suggestion.
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Offline majormajor42

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #224 on: 09/07/2017 02:34 PM »
over that biggest hump at 12. Thirty-six percent of you were too pessimistic (or optimistic if rooting against SpaceX).

...water is life and it is out there, where we intend to go. I believe that this nation should commit itself to achieving the goal, before this decade is out, of landing a man or machine on a body such as the Moon and harvest a cup of water for a human to drink or process into fuel for their craft.

Online RonM

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #225 on: 09/07/2017 03:40 PM »
I'm impressed SpaceX has already hit my guess of 12 flights. I figured with SLC-40 down for most of the year they couldn't get more than that.

Also an impressive run of successful first stage landings.

Online FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #226 on: 09/07/2017 04:38 PM »
So the only way that my guess at 15 will be true now is if Imra causes significant damage and SpaceX just get a couple more off from VAFB ... I really hope that doesn't happen.

I think there'll definitely be some sort of hiatus due to Imra though. My guess is that 20 is perhaps the best SpaceX can do this year now? I'll be very happy to see my guess being too low.


Offline moreno7798

Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #227 on: 09/10/2017 01:12 AM »
So the only way that my guess at 15 will be true now is if Imra causes significant damage and SpaceX just get a couple more off from VAFB ... I really hope that doesn't happen.

I think there'll definitely be some sort of hiatus due to Imra though. My guess is that 20 is perhaps the best SpaceX can do this year now? I'll be very happy to see my guess being too low.

For the looks of it so far, Irma will not significantly impact the cape. I'm in Fort Lauderdale right now camping out at a hotel and it seems Irma is going to have "moderate impact" here, and much less of an impact up north at the cape. For the Space Coast, it's mostly going to be (at most) a Tropical Storm kind of event.

Online oldAtlas_Eguy

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #228 on: 09/14/2017 08:03 AM »
Irma may cause some slips. The first being the ULA launch scheduled for Sept 28. If that one slips then there is a question as to whether the following SpaceX launch scheduled for Oct 2 will slip or the ULA launch plays leap frog for a launch date after the F9 launch. 18 days should be plenty of time for SpaceX to get back on track for the next launch flow. Since they have been able to do flows on LC39A in 14 days launch to launch. As far as any damage to SpaceX facilities so far none have been mentioned. But getting KSC/Cape back up and running after being down for a week is not trivial, primarily road cleanup and other ancillary things like water. There is one item not mentioned but is a concern and that is worker distraction. Because of events work will be slowed just to keep from having accidents/errors occur. This last may be the biggest impact on the near term schedules, not any of the damages or cleanup activities.

But as far as the ultimate impact by Irma on SpaceX launch schedule for the year is likely to be minimal or at worst about a general slip in schedules of not more than 2 weeks. The almost 1 month time between the OTV-5 and the SES-11 with Irma following the OTV-5 within just days may prove no more than a nuisance for SpaceX as far as their work on getting SLC-40 operational as well as work they had planned on performing on LC39A for the 4 week work period between launches cut short by Irma.

The current count is at 13. But Oct has a possibility of 3 launches scheduled. If that goes well the count at end of Oct would be 16. A count of 15 would be greater than the mean/median (14.5) of the poll.

As far as Nov and Dec: 2 in Nov one from LC-40 and SLC-4E each, 2 in Dec one from LC39A (FH) and LC-40 each. There is always a possibility of one more during Nov or Dec but the year is shaping up to make that unlikely.

Total projected for 2017 -> 20.

Offline Owlon

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #229 on: 09/15/2017 03:01 AM »
Irma may cause some slips. The first being the ULA launch scheduled for Sept 28. If that one slips then there is a question as to whether the following SpaceX launch scheduled for Oct 2 will slip or the ULA launch plays leap frog for a launch date after the F9 launch. 18 days should be plenty of time for SpaceX to get back on track for the next launch flow. Since they have been able to do flows on LC39A in 14 days launch to launch. As far as any damage to SpaceX facilities so far none have been mentioned. But getting KSC/Cape back up and running after being down for a week is not trivial, primarily road cleanup and other ancillary things like water. There is one item not mentioned but is a concern and that is worker distraction. Because of events work will be slowed just to keep from having accidents/errors occur. This last may be the biggest impact on the near term schedules, not any of the damages or cleanup activities.

But as far as the ultimate impact by Irma on SpaceX launch schedule for the year is likely to be minimal or at worst about a general slip in schedules of not more than 2 weeks. The almost 1 month time between the OTV-5 and the SES-11 with Irma following the OTV-5 within just days may prove no more than a nuisance for SpaceX as far as their work on getting SLC-40 operational as well as work they had planned on performing on LC39A for the 4 week work period between launches cut short by Irma.

The current count is at 13. But Oct has a possibility of 3 launches scheduled. If that goes well the count at end of Oct would be 16. A count of 15 would be greater than the mean/median (14.5) of the poll.

As far as Nov and Dec: 2 in Nov one from LC-40 and SLC-4E each, 2 in Dec one from LC39A (FH) and LC-40 each. There is always a possibility of one more during Nov or Dec but the year is shaping up to make that unlikely.

Total projected for 2017 -> 20.

It's looking more and more like this is finally the year I wasn't wildly optimistic (I voted 18). Already more launches than the first five years of F9.

Offline high road

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #230 on: 09/16/2017 08:17 PM »
Irma may cause some slips. The first being the ULA launch scheduled for Sept 28. If that one slips then there is a question as to whether the following SpaceX launch scheduled for Oct 2 will slip or the ULA launch plays leap frog for a launch date after the F9 launch. 18 days should be plenty of time for SpaceX to get back on track for the next launch flow. Since they have been able to do flows on LC39A in 14 days launch to launch. As far as any damage to SpaceX facilities so far none have been mentioned. But getting KSC/Cape back up and running after being down for a week is not trivial, primarily road cleanup and other ancillary things like water. There is one item not mentioned but is a concern and that is worker distraction. Because of events work will be slowed just to keep from having accidents/errors occur. This last may be the biggest impact on the near term schedules, not any of the damages or cleanup activities.

But as far as the ultimate impact by Irma on SpaceX launch schedule for the year is likely to be minimal or at worst about a general slip in schedules of not more than 2 weeks. The almost 1 month time between the OTV-5 and the SES-11 with Irma following the OTV-5 within just days may prove no more than a nuisance for SpaceX as far as their work on getting SLC-40 operational as well as work they had planned on performing on LC39A for the 4 week work period between launches cut short by Irma.

The current count is at 13. But Oct has a possibility of 3 launches scheduled. If that goes well the count at end of Oct would be 16. A count of 15 would be greater than the mean/median (14.5) of the poll.

As far as Nov and Dec: 2 in Nov one from LC-40 and SLC-4E each, 2 in Dec one from LC39A (FH) and LC-40 each. There is always a possibility of one more during Nov or Dec but the year is shaping up to make that unlikely.

Total projected for 2017 -> 20.

It's looking more and more like this is finally the year I wasn't wildly optimistic (I voted 18). Already more launches than the first five years of F9.

Just the first four, according to the Spacex launch log in the Spacex general section. Or when do you start counting?

Online oldAtlas_Eguy

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #231 on: 09/16/2017 10:17 PM »
Irma may cause some slips. The first being the ULA launch scheduled for Sept 28. If that one slips then there is a question as to whether the following SpaceX launch scheduled for Oct 2 will slip or the ULA launch plays leap frog for a launch date after the F9 launch. 18 days should be plenty of time for SpaceX to get back on track for the next launch flow. Since they have been able to do flows on LC39A in 14 days launch to launch. As far as any damage to SpaceX facilities so far none have been mentioned. But getting KSC/Cape back up and running after being down for a week is not trivial, primarily road cleanup and other ancillary things like water. There is one item not mentioned but is a concern and that is worker distraction. Because of events work will be slowed just to keep from having accidents/errors occur. This last may be the biggest impact on the near term schedules, not any of the damages or cleanup activities.

But as far as the ultimate impact by Irma on SpaceX launch schedule for the year is likely to be minimal or at worst about a general slip in schedules of not more than 2 weeks. The almost 1 month time between the OTV-5 and the SES-11 with Irma following the OTV-5 within just days may prove no more than a nuisance for SpaceX as far as their work on getting SLC-40 operational as well as work they had planned on performing on LC39A for the 4 week work period between launches cut short by Irma.

The current count is at 13. But Oct has a possibility of 3 launches scheduled. If that goes well the count at end of Oct would be 16. A count of 15 would be greater than the mean/median (14.5) of the poll.

As far as Nov and Dec: 2 in Nov one from LC-40 and SLC-4E each, 2 in Dec one from LC39A (FH) and LC-40 each. There is always a possibility of one more during Nov or Dec but the year is shaping up to make that unlikely.

Total projected for 2017 -> 20.

It's looking more and more like this is finally the year I wasn't wildly optimistic (I voted 18). Already more launches than the first five years of F9.

Just the first four, according to the Spacex launch log in the Spacex general section. Or when do you start counting?
It is 5: 2010,2011,2012,2013.2014

Unless you are not counting 2011 which had no launches.

Offline high road

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #232 on: 09/20/2017 08:46 PM »
I started counting from the day of their first launch, not calendar years ;-)

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