Poll

How many SpaceX flights do you anticipate in 2017?

None
0 (0%)
1
1 (0.3%)
2
1 (0.3%)
3
0 (0%)
4
0 (0%)
5
0 (0%)
6
5 (1.6%)
7
5 (1.6%)
8
8 (2.5%)
9
8 (2.5%)
10
24 (7.5%)
11
18 (5.6%)
12
45 (14.1%)
13
36 (11.3%)
14
24 (7.5%)
15
31 (9.7%)
16
25 (7.8%)
17
16 (5%)
18
26 (8.1%)
19
9 (2.8%)
20
14 (4.4%)
21-25
21 (6.6%)
26-30
2 (0.6%)
31-35
0 (0%)
more than 35 !!!!
1 (0.3%)

Total Members Voted: 320

Voting closed: 01/19/2017 06:46 PM


Author Topic: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017  (Read 42036 times)

Offline high road

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #220 on: 08/28/2017 09:36 PM »
Yeah, for guys that still put a four clover on their missions patches, the thirteenth launch could make them anxious. Anxious enough to move the static fire date :p

Online CraigLieb

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #221 on: 08/31/2017 01:24 PM »
Binning at each end in larger bins makes more sense
0-4
5-8
... by twos
30-34
35 or more
Colonize Mars!

Offline John Alan

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #222 on: 08/31/2017 08:54 PM »
Personally... I rather next year be 1 to 50 in single digit steps and let the members pick to the single digit...
Yes... suks to make a poll that big... but it does collect better data to then analyze the crap out of as we are known to do...   ;)  ;D
« Last Edit: 09/01/2017 01:55 PM by John Alan »

Offline Lar

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #223 on: 09/01/2017 04:07 AM »
leaning to that. [1] Or maybe I'll do ONLY odd numbers, LOL[2]

1 - I have no life and it doesn't take that long.
2 - not a serious suggestion.
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Offline majormajor42

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #224 on: 09/07/2017 02:34 PM »
over that biggest hump at 12. Thirty-six percent of you were too pessimistic (or optimistic if rooting against SpaceX).

...water is life and it is out there, where we intend to go. I believe that this nation should commit itself to achieving the goal, before this decade is out, of landing a man or machine on a body such as the Moon and harvest a cup of water for a human to drink or process into fuel for their craft.

Offline RonM

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #225 on: 09/07/2017 03:40 PM »
I'm impressed SpaceX has already hit my guess of 12 flights. I figured with SLC-40 down for most of the year they couldn't get more than that.

Also an impressive run of successful first stage landings.

Offline FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #226 on: 09/07/2017 04:38 PM »
So the only way that my guess at 15 will be true now is if Imra causes significant damage and SpaceX just get a couple more off from VAFB ... I really hope that doesn't happen.

I think there'll definitely be some sort of hiatus due to Imra though. My guess is that 20 is perhaps the best SpaceX can do this year now? I'll be very happy to see my guess being too low.


Offline moreno7798

Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #227 on: 09/10/2017 01:12 AM »
So the only way that my guess at 15 will be true now is if Imra causes significant damage and SpaceX just get a couple more off from VAFB ... I really hope that doesn't happen.

I think there'll definitely be some sort of hiatus due to Imra though. My guess is that 20 is perhaps the best SpaceX can do this year now? I'll be very happy to see my guess being too low.

For the looks of it so far, Irma will not significantly impact the cape. I'm in Fort Lauderdale right now camping out at a hotel and it seems Irma is going to have "moderate impact" here, and much less of an impact up north at the cape. For the Space Coast, it's mostly going to be (at most) a Tropical Storm kind of event.

Online oldAtlas_Eguy

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #228 on: 09/14/2017 08:03 AM »
Irma may cause some slips. The first being the ULA launch scheduled for Sept 28. If that one slips then there is a question as to whether the following SpaceX launch scheduled for Oct 2 will slip or the ULA launch plays leap frog for a launch date after the F9 launch. 18 days should be plenty of time for SpaceX to get back on track for the next launch flow. Since they have been able to do flows on LC39A in 14 days launch to launch. As far as any damage to SpaceX facilities so far none have been mentioned. But getting KSC/Cape back up and running after being down for a week is not trivial, primarily road cleanup and other ancillary things like water. There is one item not mentioned but is a concern and that is worker distraction. Because of events work will be slowed just to keep from having accidents/errors occur. This last may be the biggest impact on the near term schedules, not any of the damages or cleanup activities.

But as far as the ultimate impact by Irma on SpaceX launch schedule for the year is likely to be minimal or at worst about a general slip in schedules of not more than 2 weeks. The almost 1 month time between the OTV-5 and the SES-11 with Irma following the OTV-5 within just days may prove no more than a nuisance for SpaceX as far as their work on getting SLC-40 operational as well as work they had planned on performing on LC39A for the 4 week work period between launches cut short by Irma.

The current count is at 13. But Oct has a possibility of 3 launches scheduled. If that goes well the count at end of Oct would be 16. A count of 15 would be greater than the mean/median (14.5) of the poll.

As far as Nov and Dec: 2 in Nov one from LC-40 and SLC-4E each, 2 in Dec one from LC39A (FH) and LC-40 each. There is always a possibility of one more during Nov or Dec but the year is shaping up to make that unlikely.

Total projected for 2017 -> 20.

Offline Owlon

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #229 on: 09/15/2017 03:01 AM »
Irma may cause some slips. The first being the ULA launch scheduled for Sept 28. If that one slips then there is a question as to whether the following SpaceX launch scheduled for Oct 2 will slip or the ULA launch plays leap frog for a launch date after the F9 launch. 18 days should be plenty of time for SpaceX to get back on track for the next launch flow. Since they have been able to do flows on LC39A in 14 days launch to launch. As far as any damage to SpaceX facilities so far none have been mentioned. But getting KSC/Cape back up and running after being down for a week is not trivial, primarily road cleanup and other ancillary things like water. There is one item not mentioned but is a concern and that is worker distraction. Because of events work will be slowed just to keep from having accidents/errors occur. This last may be the biggest impact on the near term schedules, not any of the damages or cleanup activities.

But as far as the ultimate impact by Irma on SpaceX launch schedule for the year is likely to be minimal or at worst about a general slip in schedules of not more than 2 weeks. The almost 1 month time between the OTV-5 and the SES-11 with Irma following the OTV-5 within just days may prove no more than a nuisance for SpaceX as far as their work on getting SLC-40 operational as well as work they had planned on performing on LC39A for the 4 week work period between launches cut short by Irma.

The current count is at 13. But Oct has a possibility of 3 launches scheduled. If that goes well the count at end of Oct would be 16. A count of 15 would be greater than the mean/median (14.5) of the poll.

As far as Nov and Dec: 2 in Nov one from LC-40 and SLC-4E each, 2 in Dec one from LC39A (FH) and LC-40 each. There is always a possibility of one more during Nov or Dec but the year is shaping up to make that unlikely.

Total projected for 2017 -> 20.

It's looking more and more like this is finally the year I wasn't wildly optimistic (I voted 18). Already more launches than the first five years of F9.

Offline high road

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #230 on: 09/16/2017 08:17 PM »
Irma may cause some slips. The first being the ULA launch scheduled for Sept 28. If that one slips then there is a question as to whether the following SpaceX launch scheduled for Oct 2 will slip or the ULA launch plays leap frog for a launch date after the F9 launch. 18 days should be plenty of time for SpaceX to get back on track for the next launch flow. Since they have been able to do flows on LC39A in 14 days launch to launch. As far as any damage to SpaceX facilities so far none have been mentioned. But getting KSC/Cape back up and running after being down for a week is not trivial, primarily road cleanup and other ancillary things like water. There is one item not mentioned but is a concern and that is worker distraction. Because of events work will be slowed just to keep from having accidents/errors occur. This last may be the biggest impact on the near term schedules, not any of the damages or cleanup activities.

But as far as the ultimate impact by Irma on SpaceX launch schedule for the year is likely to be minimal or at worst about a general slip in schedules of not more than 2 weeks. The almost 1 month time between the OTV-5 and the SES-11 with Irma following the OTV-5 within just days may prove no more than a nuisance for SpaceX as far as their work on getting SLC-40 operational as well as work they had planned on performing on LC39A for the 4 week work period between launches cut short by Irma.

The current count is at 13. But Oct has a possibility of 3 launches scheduled. If that goes well the count at end of Oct would be 16. A count of 15 would be greater than the mean/median (14.5) of the poll.

As far as Nov and Dec: 2 in Nov one from LC-40 and SLC-4E each, 2 in Dec one from LC39A (FH) and LC-40 each. There is always a possibility of one more during Nov or Dec but the year is shaping up to make that unlikely.

Total projected for 2017 -> 20.

It's looking more and more like this is finally the year I wasn't wildly optimistic (I voted 18). Already more launches than the first five years of F9.

Just the first four, according to the Spacex launch log in the Spacex general section. Or when do you start counting?

Online oldAtlas_Eguy

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #231 on: 09/16/2017 10:17 PM »
Irma may cause some slips. The first being the ULA launch scheduled for Sept 28. If that one slips then there is a question as to whether the following SpaceX launch scheduled for Oct 2 will slip or the ULA launch plays leap frog for a launch date after the F9 launch. 18 days should be plenty of time for SpaceX to get back on track for the next launch flow. Since they have been able to do flows on LC39A in 14 days launch to launch. As far as any damage to SpaceX facilities so far none have been mentioned. But getting KSC/Cape back up and running after being down for a week is not trivial, primarily road cleanup and other ancillary things like water. There is one item not mentioned but is a concern and that is worker distraction. Because of events work will be slowed just to keep from having accidents/errors occur. This last may be the biggest impact on the near term schedules, not any of the damages or cleanup activities.

But as far as the ultimate impact by Irma on SpaceX launch schedule for the year is likely to be minimal or at worst about a general slip in schedules of not more than 2 weeks. The almost 1 month time between the OTV-5 and the SES-11 with Irma following the OTV-5 within just days may prove no more than a nuisance for SpaceX as far as their work on getting SLC-40 operational as well as work they had planned on performing on LC39A for the 4 week work period between launches cut short by Irma.

The current count is at 13. But Oct has a possibility of 3 launches scheduled. If that goes well the count at end of Oct would be 16. A count of 15 would be greater than the mean/median (14.5) of the poll.

As far as Nov and Dec: 2 in Nov one from LC-40 and SLC-4E each, 2 in Dec one from LC39A (FH) and LC-40 each. There is always a possibility of one more during Nov or Dec but the year is shaping up to make that unlikely.

Total projected for 2017 -> 20.

It's looking more and more like this is finally the year I wasn't wildly optimistic (I voted 18). Already more launches than the first five years of F9.

Just the first four, according to the Spacex launch log in the Spacex general section. Or when do you start counting?
It is 5: 2010,2011,2012,2013.2014

Unless you are not counting 2011 which had no launches.

Offline high road

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #232 on: 09/20/2017 08:46 PM »
I started counting from the day of their first launch, not calendar years ;-)

Offline FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #233 on: 09/30/2017 01:28 PM »
Just spotted that no-one posted this from Elonís BFR 2 talk at IAC 2017.

SpaceX appear to have revised their target for this year down to 20.

Online hop

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #234 on: 09/30/2017 09:55 PM »
SpaceX appear to have revised their target for this year down to 20.
And we have an official SpaceX target of 30 for the next year, which IMO gives a reasonable upper bound for the serious options in the next poll.

Offline Zed_Noir

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #235 on: 10/01/2017 02:29 AM »
Just spotted that no-one posted this from Elonís BFR 2 talk at IAC 2017.

SpaceX appear to have revised their target for this year down to 20.

I read somewhere that the 20 flight total does not include the Falcon Heavy test flight, since it is not a revenue generating flight.


Offline Endeavour_01

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #236 on: 10/02/2017 07:45 PM »
I'm impressed SpaceX has already hit my guess of 12 flights. I figured with SLC-40 down for most of the year they couldn't get more than that.

Also an impressive run of successful first stage landings.

I had the same rationale when I guessed 12. Impressed and happy that my guess has turned out to be too low.
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Offline Lar

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #237 on: 10/02/2017 08:58 PM »
SpaceX appear to have revised their target for this year down to 20.
And we have an official SpaceX target of 30 for the next year, which IMO gives a reasonable upper bound for the serious options in the next poll.

Thanks for trying to save me some keystrokes but I can see them getting ahead of schedule. Maybe. So I probably will go to 35 in single digits before switching to ranges.
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Offline smoliarm

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #238 on: 10/04/2017 10:22 PM »
SpaceX appear to have revised their target for this year down to 20.
And we have an official SpaceX target of 30 for the next year, which IMO gives a reasonable upper bound for the serious options in the next poll.

Thanks for trying to save me some keystrokes but I can see them getting ahead of schedule. Maybe. So I probably will go to 35 in single digits before switching to ranges.
Couple suggestions for the next poll
1. it is better to set poll quantiles of equal value through the whole range of poll values (it is a typical recommendation for professional poll developers). Otherwise it is difficult to apply statistical processing to the results. Second reason (and may be more important): simple bar graph of poll results gives distorted picture - if quantiles are of different sizes.
I would recommend double quantiles throughout the whole range (except the first and the last) - just like Paul451 suggested earlier:
https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=41824.msg1716006#msg1716006
2. As I see the purpose of polls, an attempt to predict is not the only one. The distribution of results also characterizes the crowd at NSF, which is interesting just as well. Therefore, I'd suggest not to cut the poll range close to 30. Yes, rockets do not fly without payloads, I know. But some people don't take this into consideration. And their distribution is interesting too :)

Offline Comga

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #239 on: 10/09/2017 08:19 PM »
SpaceX appear to have revised their target for this year down to 20.
And we have an official SpaceX target of 30 for the next year, which IMO gives a reasonable upper bound for the serious options in the next poll.

Thanks for trying to save me some keystrokes but I can see them getting ahead of schedule. Maybe. So I probably will go to 35 in single digits before switching to ranges.
Couple suggestions for the next poll
1. it is better to set poll quantiles of equal value through the whole range of poll values (it is a typical recommendation for professional poll developers). Otherwise it is difficult to apply statistical processing to the results. Second reason (and may be more important): simple bar graph of poll results gives distorted picture - if quantiles are of different sizes.
I would recommend double quantiles throughout the whole range (except the first and the last) - just like Paul451 suggested earlier:
https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=41824.msg1716006#msg1716006
2. As I see the purpose of polls, an attempt to predict is not the only one. The distribution of results also characterizes the crowd at NSF, which is interesting just as well. Therefore, I'd suggest not to cut the poll range close to 30. Yes, rockets do not fly without payloads, I know. But some people don't take this into consideration. And their distribution is interesting too :)

Without knowing the practice of professional poll developers, I made a similar point in my analysis of the poll.  The votes for large ranges were split uniformly into intervals that matched the rest of the poll (single numbers) so they could be displayed together.
The second point is also well taken, and it appears that Lar is already planning on that.
What kind of wastrels would dump a perfectly good booster in the ocean after just one use?

Tags: range