Author Topic: New Glenn: Blue Origin Announcement of Orbital Rocket Plan  (Read 138093 times)

Online AncientU

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Re: New Glenn: Blue Origin Announcement of Orbital Rocket Plan
« Reply #780 on: 09/13/2017 02:40 PM »
Not needing to make satellite as compact for launch should add significant savings to build cost.

A statement often spoken yet not proven, almost bordering on wishful thinking. But I hope you are right.
Blue think it is a valid point, but comsat owners want redundant LVs. They would only build satellite for NG if there is alternative LV with 7m fairing.

Would 9m do?
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Offline meberbs

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Re: New Glenn: Blue Origin Announcement of Orbital Rocket Plan
« Reply #781 on: 09/13/2017 03:48 PM »
Silly question perhaps, but do they mean 7m in length or 7m diameter?

It's length. Blue Origin's graphic clearly shows same width as rocket, just like previous 5.4m fairing.
Look at the picture in the first post of the thread again. The 2 stage version is the one shown with the smaller fairing, and you can see the difference in diameter.

Offline Lars-J

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Re: New Glenn: Blue Origin Announcement of Orbital Rocket Plan
« Reply #782 on: 09/13/2017 03:56 PM »
Is the cost of a fairing mainly in the labor and tooling needed to make it or the material used to make it? A 7 meter fairing, while much larger, may not cost that much more to make than a 5 meter fairing.

This fantasy where larger items don't cost much more (and the related one where larger payloads will somehow be cheaper) needs to end.

Things don't become cheaper because you scale them up. They become cheaper through mass production. And even then you eventually run into raw material costs.

Offline GWH

Not needing to make satellite as compact for launch should add significant savings to build cost.

A statement often spoken yet not proven, almost bordering on wishful thinking. But I hope you are right.

A statement also spoken by Blue Origin  ;)
https://twitter.com/blueorigin/status/907640850309562374


Offline Lar

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Re: New Glenn: Blue Origin Announcement of Orbital Rocket Plan
« Reply #784 on: 09/13/2017 04:21 PM »
Blue think it is a valid point, but comsat owners want redundant LVs. They would only build satellite for NG if there is alternative LV with 7m fairing.

Would 9m do?

Presumably only if the 9m vehicle you are thinking of :) ... actually has a fairing...

Edit: Even I screw up quotes once In a while.  But then I fix them.
« Last Edit: 09/13/2017 05:41 PM by Lar »
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Offline envy887

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Re: New Glenn: Blue Origin Announcement of Orbital Rocket Plan
« Reply #785 on: 09/13/2017 05:08 PM »
Is the cost of a fairing mainly in the labor and tooling needed to make it or the material used to make it? A 7 meter fairing, while much larger, may not cost that much more to make than a 5 meter fairing.

This fantasy where larger items don't cost much more (and the related one where larger payloads will somehow be cheaper) needs to end.

Things don't become cheaper because you scale them up. They become cheaper through mass production. And even then you eventually run into raw material costs.
A 7 m fairing will cost about twice as much as a 5 m fairing, and mass producing it won't help much since most of the cost is the raw composite material.

Satellites, however, are nowhere near commodity prices. Mass producing them will make them cheaper, as will use of larger, heavier standardized components which can be mass produced.

Offline envy887

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Re: New Glenn: Blue Origin Announcement of Orbital Rocket Plan
« Reply #786 on: 09/13/2017 05:12 PM »
Presumably only if the 9m vehicle you are thinking of :) ... actually has a fairing...

Not necessarily. EELV and STS shared payloads, despite one not having a fairing
« Last Edit: 09/13/2017 05:14 PM by envy887 »

Offline 2552

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Re: New Glenn: Blue Origin Announcement of Orbital Rocket Plan
« Reply #787 on: 09/13/2017 05:24 PM »
Do we know the dimensions of the OneWeb constellation satellites? How many of them could fit in the 7m fairing?

Online AncientU

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Re: New Glenn: Blue Origin Announcement of Orbital Rocket Plan
« Reply #788 on: 09/13/2017 05:49 PM »
Do we know the dimensions of the OneWeb constellation satellites? How many of them could fit in the 7m fairing?

80 of OneWebs per the five-launch announcement; Soyuz is launching 32-36 per flight.

Quote
Those five launches could accommodate as many as 400 satellites, OneWeb executive chairman Greg Wyler told The Wall Street Journal.
https://www.geekwire.com/2017/jeff-bezos-oneweb-satellite-blue-origin-new-glenn/
« Last Edit: 09/13/2017 05:55 PM by AncientU »
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Online dror

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Re: New Glenn: Blue Origin Announcement of Orbital Rocket Plan
« Reply #789 on: 09/13/2017 06:35 PM »
Do we know the dimensions of the OneWeb constellation satellites? How many of them could fit in the 7m fairing?

80 of OneWebs per the five-launch announcement; Soyuz is launching 32-36 per flight.

Quote
Those five launches could accommodate as many as 400 satellites, OneWeb executive chairman Greg Wyler told The Wall Street Journal.
https://www.geekwire.com/2017/jeff-bezos-oneweb-satellite-blue-origin-new-glenn/
But it looks like they were shaking hands over the 5 meter fairing
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Offline DreamyPickle

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Re: New Glenn: Blue Origin Announcement of Orbital Rocket Plan
« Reply #790 on: 09/13/2017 06:46 PM »
Is the cost of a fairing mainly in the labor and tooling needed to make it or the material used to make it? A 7 meter fairing, while much larger, may not cost that much more to make than a 5 meter fairing.
This fantasy where larger items don't cost much more (and the related one where larger payloads will somehow be cheaper) needs to end.

Things don't become cheaper because you scale them up. They become cheaper through mass production. And even then you eventually run into raw material costs.
A 7 m fairing will cost about twice as much as a 5 m fairing, and mass producing it won't help much since most of the cost is the raw composite material.

Wouldn't it be potentially cheaper to only build fairings in a single size? Is material really that expensive compared to tooling for different diameters?

But maybe we should just accept the public explanation that it's based on customer feedback. New Glenn is a very heavy rocket and perhaps it really ended up being limited by payload volume rather than mass in most cases. It's closest peer is Falcon Heavy, not the medium EELVs.

Offline Chasm

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Re: New Glenn: Blue Origin Announcement of Orbital Rocket Plan
« Reply #791 on: 09/13/2017 07:20 PM »
The initial options were 7 and 5.4 meter.
Total height was similar, taking the adapter required for the 5.4m version into account.
That reduces variables nicely down to a circle, ignoring the pointy end. The circumference of the 7m fairing is ~30% longer. Aerodynamic load should be higher so more material will be needed. I won#t even try to guess that number. Still not too bad.

The amount of specialized hardware for fairing separation should be the about same for either version. No real cost differences there. Complexity stays the same.

One of the big questions for me is: How expensive is it to qualify a 2nd fairing?
That is a cost I have no idea about. Additional production gear like a different set of mandrels / molds seems easy. The cost of the first fairing does not really matter, have to have it.

I suppose fairings will be made with current fabrication technology, out of autoclave. So size is not really an issue. Whole racing yacht hulls are cured that way. To go with an US yacht say Comanche 100ft long, 22foot wide at the blunt end. Several tons of carbon more in it than in any fairing.
There is a reason why Blue hired -and announced- a production guy from Viking Yachts (IIRC, certainly an US yacht builder) for their composite work.

Another question is how much they are licensing or buying from RUAG. (RUAG said in April that they are talking with ULA, Blue Origin - and SpaceX)

Offline TrevorMonty

If SpaceX shows fairing recovery is viable then I can see Blue trying it.

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Re: New Glenn: Blue Origin Announcement of Orbital Rocket Plan
« Reply #793 on: 09/13/2017 11:13 PM »
This launcher already has a very large expendable stage, and now much larger fairing than any competitor... (Fairings aren't cheap, just as SpaceX) This adds to the costs of the launcher.

So unless they really do have lots of constellation launches, this thing is going to be way over sized for almost any other payload than a LEO space station. Manufacturing 7m fairings for payloads that need much less is a big waste.

But they could certainly pull it off... Eventually launching large pieces or bulk launches will IMO be the majority of launches, so perhaps he is timing this right after all. The future will tell... :)

Not a valid comparison. SpaceX needs to lift the fairing, payload adapter and payload rested on the fairing. If Blue does it differently, either through vertical integration or by lifting everything on the adapter and not on the fairing for integration with the second stage, the fairing can be significantly simpler, lighter and cheaper. However, I dont have numbers to do a complete trade-off and SpaceX must have reasons for their practice. But they may not apply for Blue Origin.

Also, customer opinion ultimately wins the race. I see no reason to question BOs statement.

Offline envy887

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Re: New Glenn: Blue Origin Announcement of Orbital Rocket Plan
« Reply #794 on: 09/14/2017 01:24 PM »
This launcher already has a very large expendable stage, and now much larger fairing than any competitor... (Fairings aren't cheap, just as SpaceX) This adds to the costs of the launcher.

So unless they really do have lots of constellation launches, this thing is going to be way over sized for almost any other payload than a LEO space station. Manufacturing 7m fairings for payloads that need much less is a big waste.

But they could certainly pull it off... Eventually launching large pieces or bulk launches will IMO be the majority of launches, so perhaps he is timing this right after all. The future will tell... :)

Not a valid comparison. SpaceX needs to lift the fairing, payload adapter and payload rested on the fairing. If Blue does it differently, either through vertical integration or by lifting everything on the adapter and not on the fairing for integration with the second stage, the fairing can be significantly simpler, lighter and cheaper. However, I dont have numbers to do a complete trade-off and SpaceX must have reasons for their practice. But they may not apply for Blue Origin.

Also, customer opinion ultimately wins the race. I see no reason to question BOs statement.

Blue is building a horizontal integration facility and using horizontal rollout, VI will not be their standard practice.

Offline notsorandom

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Re: New Glenn: Blue Origin Announcement of Orbital Rocket Plan
« Reply #795 on: 09/14/2017 03:31 PM »
Is the cost of a fairing mainly in the labor and tooling needed to make it or the material used to make it? A 7 meter fairing, while much larger, may not cost that much more to make than a 5 meter fairing.

This fantasy where larger items don't cost much more (and the related one where larger payloads will somehow be cheaper) needs to end.

Things don't become cheaper because you scale them up. They become cheaper through mass production. And even then you eventually run into raw material costs.
I'm not saying that a bigger faring is cheaper. It may not be so much more expensive than the original 5 meter fairing that it just makes sense to go with the 7 meter faring. That is especially true if the extra cost adds value to the product that the customer wants and is willing to pay for.

Offline jongoff

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Re: New Glenn: Blue Origin Announcement of Orbital Rocket Plan
« Reply #796 on: 09/14/2017 04:41 PM »
Do we know the dimensions of the OneWeb constellation satellites? How many of them could fit in the 7m fairing?

80 of OneWebs per the five-launch announcement; Soyuz is launching 32-36 per flight.

Quote
Those five launches could accommodate as many as 400 satellites, OneWeb executive chairman Greg Wyler told The Wall Street Journal.
https://www.geekwire.com/2017/jeff-bezos-oneweb-satellite-blue-origin-new-glenn/

Interesting. That means that they're only using 1/3-1/2 the mass capacity of New Glenn for those launches. Makes sense though--I don't think you'd want to put 1/4 of your constellation up on single launch. That's just tempting fate.

Also, I don't have a good price for a Soyuz launch, but I'm guessing it's in the neighborhood of $60M. So in order to be a good deal at that many satellites, they've got to be talking a price of <$120M for a New Glenn flight in order to start to be tempting to someone like OneWeb.

~Jon

Offline Zed_Noir

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Re: New Glenn: Blue Origin Announcement of Orbital Rocket Plan
« Reply #797 on: 09/15/2017 09:31 AM »
....
Also, I don't have a good price for a Soyuz launch, but I'm guessing it's in the neighborhood of $60M. So in order to be a good deal at that many satellites, they've got to be talking a price of <$120M for a New Glenn flight in order to start to be tempting to someone like OneWeb.
....

It is about $80M according to a recent GAO report.

See http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=42617.msg1714372#msg1714372
« Last Edit: 09/15/2017 09:41 AM by Zed_Noir »

Online AncientU

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Re: New Glenn: Blue Origin Announcement of Orbital Rocket Plan
« Reply #798 on: 09/15/2017 03:47 PM »
Typo (bad math) in table.
F9 should be $2684/kg(1220/lb), not $2864/kg.
« Last Edit: 09/15/2017 03:50 PM by AncientU »
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Offline ZachF

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Re: New Glenn: Blue Origin Announcement of Orbital Rocket Plan
« Reply #799 on: 09/15/2017 04:25 PM »
Do we know the dimensions of the OneWeb constellation satellites? How many of them could fit in the 7m fairing?

80 of OneWebs per the five-launch announcement; Soyuz is launching 32-36 per flight.

Quote
Those five launches could accommodate as many as 400 satellites, OneWeb executive chairman Greg Wyler told The Wall Street Journal.
https://www.geekwire.com/2017/jeff-bezos-oneweb-satellite-blue-origin-new-glenn/

Interesting. That means that they're only using 1/3-1/2 the mass capacity of New Glenn for those launches. Makes sense though--I don't think you'd want to put 1/4 of your constellation up on single launch. That's just tempting fate.

Also, I don't have a good price for a Soyuz launch, but I'm guessing it's in the neighborhood of $60M. So in order to be a good deal at that many satellites, they've got to be talking a price of <$120M for a New Glenn flight in order to start to be tempting to someone like OneWeb.

~Jon

If NG can get below $100m/launch I think they'd be gtg.

They'd be cheaper than Ariane 6.4 for an equivalent GTO payload, and in the same rough range as two F9 launches.

Price/kg for LEO would be ~$2,222, so less than F9, but with much less volume restrictions than FH.

I think they can get it, especially re-using the first stage.

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