Author Topic: Eight year Moon mission. What can we do?  (Read 58869 times)

Offline wannamoonbase

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Re: Eight year Moon mission. What can we do?
« Reply #100 on: 06/30/2016 04:10 am »
DougSpace is right. 

8 years of working on enabling technologies can make it a no brainier.

Marketing and sales of these enabling technologies can be done by the commercial enterprises developing them. 

It can't be left to be 100% in the hands of NASA,or you end up spending $2.7B a year on a rocket that doesn't fly.
Wildly optimistic prediction, Superheavy recovery on IFT-4 or IFT-5

Offline A_M_Swallow

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Re: Eight year Moon mission. What can we do?
« Reply #101 on: 09/27/2016 10:18 pm »
SpaceX's proposed Mars Transport ship is so big that it would a good habitat for the Moon base. It is a village in its own right. It should be available in the early 2020s. The Moon would also be a good place to give it a long term test.


Offline okan170

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Re: Eight year Moon mission. What can we do?
« Reply #102 on: 09/27/2016 10:58 pm »
SpaceX's proposed Mars Transport ship is so big that it would a good habitat for the Moon base. It is a village in its own right. It should be available in the early 2020s. The Moon would also be a good place to give it a long term test.



"Should" being operative here.

Offline A_M_Swallow

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Re: Eight year Moon mission. What can we do?
« Reply #103 on: 09/27/2016 11:04 pm »

"Should" being operative here.

Even 10 years later it would still be useful as the primary habitat.

Food, people, machines and fuel can be brought using smaller landers like the Xeus.

Offline savuporo

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Re: Eight year Moon mission. What can we do?
« Reply #104 on: 09/28/2016 03:52 am »
Extrapolation.

Also a good word.
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Offline A_M_Swallow

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Re: Eight year Moon mission. What can we do?
« Reply #105 on: 10/20/2016 01:29 pm »
The Republican Party has just issued its space policy. With Trump going to KSC there is a chance to ask him to change any parts you do not like.

Offline Patchouli

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Re: Eight year Moon mission. What can we do?
« Reply #106 on: 10/21/2016 04:02 am »
SpaceX's proposed Mars Transport ship is so big that it would a good habitat for the Moon base. It is a village in its own right. It should be available in the early 2020s. The Moon would also be a good place to give it a long term test.



It's unknown if ITS will be flying by then let alone if it's even a sure thing.

Musk's presentation on it reminded me of old films of Von Braun's vision of moon missions from the 1950s.
He did eventually get to the moon but the hardware that flew was very different.

« Last Edit: 10/21/2016 04:57 am by Patchouli »

Offline Hauerg

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Re: Eight year Moon mission. What can we do?
« Reply #107 on: 10/21/2016 04:51 am »
At least Elon has already built an O2 tank.

Offline Coastal Ron

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Re: Eight year Moon mission. What can we do?
« Reply #108 on: 10/21/2016 04:54 am »
SpaceX's proposed Mars Transport ship is so big that it would a good habitat for the Moon base.

I don't think a vehicle optimized for zero-G habitation would be good for 1/6th-G habitation.  And from what I've been able to discern the ITS is not meant for habitation on Mars, just the transportation to/from.

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The Moon would also be a good place to give it a long term test.

Not sure why.  There is no atmosphere to test the re-entry systems, and the dust on the Moon is more of a problem than the dust on Mars, so that just adds more complications.

Musk is committed to Mars, so doing all of their testing AT Mars makes sense.  Trying to use the Moon would just delay things and add costs.
If we don't continuously lower the cost to access space, how are we ever going to afford to expand humanity out into space?

Offline guckyfan

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Re: Eight year Moon mission. What can we do?
« Reply #109 on: 10/21/2016 07:30 am »

I don't think a vehicle optimized for zero-G habitation would be good for 1/6th-G habitation.  And from what I've been able to discern the ITS is not meant for habitation on Mars, just the transportation to/from.

Adapting the interior for the intended use is not an unsurmountable problem. It would be done in cooperation with the paying customer.

Elon Musk has mentioned that ITS, MCT back then, would be the habitat for the first manned flight. There is plenty of space for 20 people even with the open architecture. They would have to install handrails at the decks before or after landing.

I agree that a moon landing is unlikely in the test phase.

Offline brickmack

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Re: Eight year Moon mission. What can we do?
« Reply #110 on: 10/21/2016 11:05 pm »
Quote
The Moon would also be a good place to give it a long term test.

Not sure why.  There is no atmosphere to test the re-entry systems, and the dust on the Moon is more of a problem than the dust on Mars, so that just adds more complications.

Musk is committed to Mars, so doing all of their testing AT Mars makes sense.  Trying to use the Moon would just delay things and add costs.

It allows testing of the landing system and surface EVA equipment in a vaguely Mars-esque environment. No air, low gravity, unprepared landing surface. Testing landing at Mars after only doing it at Earth is a bad idea because it takes so long to do each test and theres less margin for an off-nominal landing. With the moon, the test rate would be constrained only by how often they can refurbish and launch, and they can pre-position a tanker or 2 in lunar orbit to provide additional fuel during early attempts to increase margins, then gradually reduce fuel margins and increase payload to be somewhat more representative of a Mars landing. Reentry systems testing is less critical because that can be done so extensively at Earth

Development costs to adapt ITS for lunar landings should be minimal (especially if the only goal is short duration test flights), and Mars windows are only every 26 months so they might as well take full advantage of the schedule gaps.

Offline Bob Shaw

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Re: Eight year Moon mission. What can we do?
« Reply #111 on: 10/21/2016 11:24 pm »
I've previously pointed out that ITS will demand test flights simply to prove that the environmental systems work; in the first instance, these will need to be close enough to Earth to allow a return home at short notice. In other words, ITS will in effect be a space station, albeit one that returns to Earth. Similarly, there will be a need to perform tests under low-gravity conditions, and 1/6G is a decent enough test environment for 1/3G; the Moon also provides a benign landing environment, being well-mapped and close(ish) to home.

Additionally, as pointed out, there is the matter of cadence. Particularly during the early stages of the SpaceX vision, there will be years between flights. Is it likely that the low-hanging fruit of the Moon will be ignored? Hardly. And, there is the prospect of selling upmass, which is the raison d'etre of the Spacex model.

Finally, what would RAH do? Right, you got it...

Offline guckyfan

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Re: Eight year Moon mission. What can we do?
« Reply #112 on: 10/22/2016 05:58 am »
Similarly, there will be a need to perform tests under low-gravity conditions, and 1/6G is a decent enough test environment for 1/3G;

I mostly agree with your post. Those tests are necessary. I diagree with using the moon for gravity testing. Mars gravity is more than twice the gravity of the moon. They are not comparable and doing such tests has the risk of showing up problems which then are falsely extrapolated to Mars.

I have suggested before that tests with mice could be done on MCT/ITS in centrifuges. Two levels in the same centrifuge could even give the data for Mars and moon in parallel. Times would be long enough that a full generation of mice could be conceived, born and raised to maturity and another generation. They have the space, they have the time, they have the people to do it during test of the ITS systems.

Offline A_M_Swallow

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Re: Eight year Moon mission. What can we do?
« Reply #113 on: 10/22/2016 09:00 am »
Similarly, there will be a need to perform tests under low-gravity conditions, and 1/6G is a decent enough test environment for 1/3G;

I mostly agree with your post. Those tests are necessary. I diagree with using the moon for gravity testing. Mars gravity is more than twice the gravity of the moon. They are not comparable and doing such tests has the risk of showing up problems which then are falsely extrapolated to Mars.

I have suggested before that tests with mice could be done on MCT/ITS in centrifuges. Two levels in the same centrifuge could even give the data for Mars and moon in parallel. Times would be long enough that a full generation of mice could be conceived, born and raised to maturity and another generation. They have the space, they have the time, they have the people to do it during test of the ITS systems.

We definitely need to do artificial gravity experiments with rodents. We also need to do low gravity experiments with full sized equipment. Despite being suggested mainly times centrifuges able to take entire spaceships have not been built and flown.

Offline Coastal Ron

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Re: Eight year Moon mission. What can we do?
« Reply #114 on: 10/23/2016 07:18 pm »
It allows testing of the landing system and surface EVA equipment in a vaguely Mars-esque environment. No air, low gravity, unprepared landing surface.
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Reentry systems testing is less critical because that can be done so extensively at Earth

Since the ITS is also capable of landing on Earth, and Earth is a much more analogous location as well as being far harder in all mission aspects, there would be little to learn by landing on an airless moon.  Because if you can land on Earth then you can land on Mars, right?

Quote
With the moon, the test rate would be constrained only by how often they can refurbish and launch, and they can pre-position a tanker or 2 in lunar orbit to provide additional fuel during early attempts to increase margins, then gradually reduce fuel margins and increase payload to be somewhat more representative of a Mars landing.

I do think they will take trips to the Moon and around it, especially in early testing, since that simulates deep space so much better than LEO does (i.e. radiation environments, thermal control, psychological, etc.).

Quote
Testing landing at Mars after only doing it at Earth is a bad idea because it takes so long to do each test and theres less margin for an off-nominal landing.
Quote
Development costs to adapt ITS for lunar landings should be minimal (especially if the only goal is short duration test flights), and Mars windows are only every 26 months so they might as well take full advantage of the schedule gaps.

As Musk mentioned their plan is to have fleets of ITS leaving for Mars at the same time when they are in full operation, but in the early testing phase I think they will be more focused on being able to land on Earth and learning how to live/survive in space - and I think that will take up a lot of time between synods.  I could certainly be wrong, but I don't see where landing on our Moon provides them with valuable information about Earth-Mars transportation systems...
If we don't continuously lower the cost to access space, how are we ever going to afford to expand humanity out into space?

Offline savuporo

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Re: Eight year Moon mission. What can we do?
« Reply #115 on: 10/23/2016 08:04 pm »
I do think they will take trips to the Moon and around it, especially in early testing, since that simulates deep space so much better than LEO does (i.e. radiation environments, thermal control, psychological, etc.).
Good question to ask on the AMA coming up in next 2h. How do you plan to test any of this grandiose stuff, or you just don't?
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Offline guckyfan

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Re: Eight year Moon mission. What can we do?
« Reply #116 on: 10/23/2016 08:10 pm »
As Musk mentioned their plan is to have fleets of ITS leaving for Mars at the same time when they are in full operation, but in the early testing phase I think they will be more focused on being able to land on Earth and learning how to live/survive in space - and I think that will take up a lot of time between synods.  I could certainly be wrong, but I don't see where landing on our Moon provides them with valuable information about Earth-Mars transportation systems...

I have a hard time taking that literally. A fleet departing together means a fleet touching down together as well. They will need some spacing done, I would think.

Offline Coastal Ron

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Re: Eight year Moon mission. What can we do?
« Reply #117 on: 10/23/2016 10:51 pm »
As Musk mentioned their plan is to have fleets of ITS leaving for Mars at the same time when they are in full operation, but in the early testing phase I think they will be more focused on being able to land on Earth and learning how to live/survive in space - and I think that will take up a lot of time between synods.  I could certainly be wrong, but I don't see where landing on our Moon provides them with valuable information about Earth-Mars transportation systems...

I have a hard time taking that literally. A fleet departing together means a fleet touching down together as well. They will need some spacing done, I would think.

Mars has the same dry land area that Earth does, so I'd say there is plenty of room for fleets of ships to land concurrently...
If we don't continuously lower the cost to access space, how are we ever going to afford to expand humanity out into space?

Offline Phil Stooke

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Re: Eight year Moon mission. What can we do?
« Reply #118 on: 10/23/2016 11:01 pm »
Leaving at the same time doesn't mean at the same second. 

Offline AncientU

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Re: Eight year Moon mission. What can we do?
« Reply #119 on: 10/23/2016 11:07 pm »
<snip>

As Musk mentioned their plan is to have fleets of ITS leaving for Mars at the same time when they are in full operation, but in the early testing phase I think they will be more focused on being able to land on Earth and learning how to live/survive in space - and I think that will take up a lot of time between synods.  I could certainly be wrong, but I don't see where landing on our Moon provides them with valuable information about Earth-Mars transportation systems...

There are some practical applications, such as actually landing, unloading, and returning to Earth.  But the biggest advantage is the demonstration that this spaceship is the read deal.  Being the second entity to put boots on the Lunar surface, and this time unloading infrastructure for an expeditionary base that may become permanent would be full validation of the capability.

It would make doing the same on Mars much less a fantasy.
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