Poll

When will an F9 first stage be re-used on an orbital mission for a paying customer & mission is a success?

June 2016
2 (1.4%)
July 2016
15 (10.5%)
August 2016
26 (18.2%)
September 2016
26 (18.2%)
October 2016
20 (14%)
November 2016
11 (7.7%)
December 2016
6 (4.2%)
Q1 2017
25 (17.5%)
Q2 2017
5 (3.5%)
Q3 2017
5 (3.5%)
Q4 2017
1 (0.7%)
H1 2018
0 (0%)
H2 2018
0 (0%)
2019 or later
1 (0.7%)
Never!
0 (0%)

Total Members Voted: 143

Voting closed: 05/14/2016 09:25 AM


Author Topic: POLL: When will first successful F9 customer orbital mission be with re-used S1?  (Read 10233 times)

Online FutureSpaceTourist

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The next big reusability step is to, er, actually re-use something!

I'm not interested in any SpaceX test flights with a re-used booster, there needs to be a paying customer. Also the payload must be put into the intended orbit by SpaceX. However, it doesn't matter whether or not the re-used booster is again recovered.

Having to keep the poll open only for a little while in case SpaceX makes any announcement soon.
« Last Edit: 05/07/2016 09:27 AM by FutureSpaceTourist »

Offline Chalmer

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I dont think they will be able to re-launch a landed stage this year (with a costumer). They simply have so many launches to launch and finish crew dragon, that i dont think there is time. I hope I am wrong though.

I do think there is a better chance of seeing a test flight this year, and then a revenue generating one next year.

Online FutureSpaceTourist

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I'm feeling optimistic and voted October. I think SES will go for it and agree a deal to re-use a booster for one of their launches scheduled later this year.

Offline nicp

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I voted September because Elon said June I think (add a little delay..).
I wonder if they will re-use an engine before an entire stage - but perhaps that would prove nothing (and provide no new data) given the number of test firings and so on the engines already do.
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Offline hamerad

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Voted August, usually would give more time slip to due elongated time but he has said he is trying to recalibrate his estimates.

As for the engine reuse, are we 100% sure that they haven't already reused an engine? after all their were a few missing from the Orbcomm stage when we last saw a photo of it. 

Offline The Amazing Catstronaut

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I voted September because I miss-clicked like an ass.  I wanted to say June.

I think they're actually starting to get their timescales down and it's deceptive to assume they'll be constantly pushing to the right with anything other than crew dragon.
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Offline Space Lizard

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For a progressive approach, before going to a paying customer, wouldn't it make sense to use one such stage for the Crew Dragon inflight abort test?
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Offline redliox

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November here; so far it looks promising although there may be a flight delay or extra one to test procedures.
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Online FutureSpaceTourist

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For a progressive approach, before going to a paying customer, wouldn't it make sense to use one such stage for the Crew Dragon inflight abort test?

Yes, certainly makes sense. Of course such a flight is still some way of and I think SpaceX won't want yo wait that long. They clearly won't re-fly unless they are very confident, but if they are confident then they'll look for a customer. If they can't find one for a first re-use then inflight abort might be a good demonstration flight to increase customer confidence, but all indications so far seem to be that there is customer interest. I think the issue will be how much the discount is for the first re-use!

IIRC correctly SES said they'd want half price? If I was SpaceX I'd take that offer. A successful re-use must go a long way to start persuading other customers to get on-board.

Offline atomic

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I voted september 2016 to get a nice symmetrical distribution.

Online Lar

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They're saying June. I applied an optimistic amount of time dilation and got September, then applied fan boy logic (one of my core competencies, just ask Jim) to get August.
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Offline nadreck

I voted September to be consistent with my vote in the other related poll suggesting that the first core to be reflown would be CRS-9. As well, I am pretty certain their is currently a September scheduled launch that involves a customer who really wants to be the first (SES-10).
It is all well and good to quote those things that made it past your confirmation bias that other people wrote, but this is a discussion board damnit! Let us know what you think! And why!

Offline Mader Levap

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Voted Q1 2017. No one yet lost bet on SpaceX being late.
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Online alang

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Surely the insurance companies will influence this. Is the risk associated with the first flight uninsurable?

Online FutureSpaceTourist

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Surely the insurance companies will influence this. Is the risk associated with the first flight uninsurable?

SES claimed that their insurers said they would be guided by whether SES were comfortable with re-use. So SES didn't expect insurance to be a big issue.

Offline CraigLieb

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One year later than Elon says is a fair guess... 2nd Q 2017
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Online philw1776

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Voted Q1 2017. No one yet lost bet on SpaceX being late.

Smart money!
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Offline Toast

For a progressive approach, before going to a paying customer, wouldn't it make sense to use one such stage for the Crew Dragon inflight abort test?

I was under the impression the F9 for the in-flight abort would be a custom core with only three engines. Is that still expected to be the case, or is there new information on this?

Offline RDMM2081

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If a re-used core were used for the in flight abort test, would that count as a paying customer? It is a contract milestone paid for by NASA...

Online FutureSpaceTourist

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If a re-used core were used for the in flight abort test, would that count as a paying customer? It is a contract milestone paid for by NASA...

But it's not orbital I'm afraid!

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