Another thing that would help is if the terrestrial radar stations were networked in such a way that authorized agencies from around the world can monitor all the data in aggregate. We're beginning to get reports that the Malaysian government may have been delaying and censoring the release of their radar data, possibly to avoid leading the investigation toward the pilot and his record of political activism. The international community could really do without this kind of nationalistic fragmentation of air traffic data.
Recovering the black box itself is helped a lot if you know where it is. Even a basic data stream would provide that information.
Sanity Check - 3/17/14 0300ZThere is (will be) a link to this post in my profile under "homepage"• 3/17/14 0300Z update.• The facts have not changed much, however speculation and discussion has shifted to potential human actors - including crew.• I've tried to be as factually accurate as I can - but I'm not an expert in each system - so if there factual errors please advise.• I've added sections on: Cargo, Fuel, Conspiracies, Pilot related conspiracy. I've bolstered ACARS/SATCOM.• Added primary/secondary Radar discussion• Updated SATCOM Pings section related to recent "it may have landed" comments.• Added comments on cyber-hijack theory.First a synopsis• The ship took off normally and headed on course to Beijing• The last ACARS transmission was 01:07 local. Confusion continues about if and when ACARS was turned off (See ACARS below)• The last comms were a normal hand-off from Malaysia to Vietnam control at about 1:30 local. It was a normal 'good night' on the Malaysian side, but Vietnam was not contacted.• NOTE: Saying "good night" or "so long" or "see you" or "Go Broncos" (okay not that one) is very common for handoffs.• The aircraft dropped off secondary radar with no communication from the cockpit.• There are reports of a climb to 45K, uneven descent and some changes in altitude. Since this is based on primary radar - altitude data is somewhat uncertain. The last has been reported as 29,500ft but that seems in dispute.• There are subsequent primary radar returns west over Malacca Straight and then north west. Since it is primarily radar - a reflection - it does identify the a/c, however it has been correlated with SATCOM pings so confidence is high that the returns are from MH370• SATCOM system pings continued for 7+ (last ping at 08:11 local) hrs after LOS (loss of signal)• SATCOM pings do not locate the aircraft but based on correlation to signal strength there are two loci that indication aircraft distance from the Satellite.• These are not paths and I have changed my language to reflect that. They represent a distance from the satellite.• Loci one is north over Andaman Sea, Bay of Bengal as far as Kazakhstan/Turkmenistan and is consistent with primary radar.• Loci two is south over the India Ocean west of Australia. We've had no reports of radar signals in that area.• The last SATCOM ping was at 8:11 am Malaysian time. At that time it would be dark on the north radius and light over the south radius.• Best data I have is SATCOM pings are hourly - so the 8:11 ping could be up to 1 hour before the aircraft stopped 'pinging'.• We have no ELT signal detected.• While authorities (Malaysian) have not confirmed this is a hijacking or purposeful event - it is believed that is highly likely by most, however, motivation is unknown.• Debris reported by Greek oil tanker has already been reported as not relevant.• Recent reports attributed to the FBI that the plane 'could have landed' and sent a satellite signal from the ground appear to be just confirming what we already knew - that the SATCOM pings could come from an a/c in flight, or powered up on the ground..• There have been no reports that a Rolls Royce EH report was sent upon landing.ACARS• ACARS is an automated aircraft communication system that transmits a/c information, primarily maintenance information, to maintenance facilities like the airline, Boeing, Engine Manf, etc.• ACARS is NOT a flight system - it is not needed for safe flight.• ACARS is a subscription service and costs money. All indications are the MH370 was subscribed only to engine health monitoring and data from that is sent to Rolls Royce.• ACARS communicates via VHF or SATCOM (and maybe Wifi at the gate). The communications channel depends on availability and is independent of the ACARS.• ACARS can be instructed not to use SATCOM or VHF from the Cockpit. This would effectively stop ACARS from sending data. Access to the EE bay is not required.• The Malaysian prime minister said (quote):• "We can say with a high degree of certainty that the Aircraft Communication Addressing and Reporting System (ACARS) was disabled just before the reached the East coast of Peninsula Malaysia".• No explanation of how that determination could be made has been released.• OPINION: The most likely conjecture I've seen is that ACARS was using VHF comms at that point and some indication of ACARS ceasing communication via VHF can be made. However, this has not been confirmed and it seems to me this could be consistent with ACARS swapping to SATCOM mode?ACARS data from MH370• The ACARS system sent 2 engine health reports to Rolls Royce, both prior to the LOS event.• The Rolls Royce page seems to indicate that a 'snapshot' of engine data would be sent at: takeoff, climb, cruise and landing. We know 2 ACARS Engine Health reports were received, so that would be consistent with the 1st two.• Based on this, we would expect a cruise and landing report. We have heard of neither.• The Engine Health report received prior to LOS had 'interesting' altitude data/fluctuations including 40K drop in a minute. That data is suspect.• Since no "landing" report was received, then either the ACARS communication was disabled, or the a/c did not land.• We have not heard if ACARS would send a report upon fuel starvation flame-out.• The summary at(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Bi2S3l7CcAAPLb3.jpg:large) says: "US officials said data showed MH370's engines operated for up to 4 hours after its transponders went dark. NOTE: I think this summary - while good - is dated.• This seems consistent with the SATCOM data being sent by the plane - which would stop if the plane (engines) were shut down.• Opinion: in absence of actual engine data being sent - which has not been reported - this may be just a different way to say what has been said.SATCOM• SATCOM is a communications channel - Satellite Communications. It is a radio system that uses satellites to communicate various information.• SATCOM is not ACARS - it is one of the channels ACARS can use.• The SATCOM system on MH370 was connecting to Inmarsat 3 satellites. In the area covered, the only satellite with coverage is IOR.Big version: Width: 720 Height: 516 File size: 199kb• Since only 1 satellite has coverage, no triangulation is possible. All that can be determined is distance from the satellite. This has been used to define 2 potential loci were the a/c could have been.Big version: Width: 1024 Height: 768 File size: 91kb• NOTE: While these may appear as paths - they are not. They are simply a set of potential locations based upon ping data. The aircraft could have been in a constant standard turn circle somewhere along one of the loci (red lines) and the satellite could not tell. We only know it was somewhere along those lines.SATCOM Pings• The SATCOM system sends (or responds to) periodic 'pings' to/from the satellites. These 'pings' are a network communication that says "I am here."• SATCOM pings are not communicating a/c status, they are part of the communications channel. They are akin to registration pings on a cell system.• The last pings were detected at 8:11am Malaysia time. This does not mean the aircraft went down or landed at this time, only that the last ping was 8:11. Source I've seen indicate the pings are hourly - but that is not confirmed.• SATCOM pings provide no aircraft heading, speed or altitude information, however, distance from the Satellite can be estimated, and ONLY distance.• Based on analysis of the SATCOM pings by Inmarsat, two possible loci have been predicted based upon a radius from the satellite picking up the pings.• SATCOM pings would be sent as long as the system (aircraft) was power up and withing coverage area. So, on the ground, if powered up (thanks to mandala499).• People have asked if SATCOM pings could come from a crashed plane if the right parts survived.• Very unlikely. The system is not self contained, the equipment, power and antennas are separate.• Recent news about the fact that the plane could have landed really appears to be just a restatement of known data.• Specifically - the SATCOM pings could have been sent from an aircraft powered, but landed - or from an aircraft in flight.• Again: These pings to not contain ANY data about the aircraft position, speed, altitude, etc.• The 'location' data inferred from the SATCOM pings is based analysis of those signals which gives an approximate distance from the satallite to the a/c.• Since the satellite is in geosynchronous orbit (~22,000 miles), the difference in distance between a flying aircraft and one on the ground is probably not measurable.CRV/FDR Data• The CVR (cockpit voice recorder) and FDR (flight data recorder) do not transmit data in flight.• They do emit sonic pings if immersed. These will last a minimum of 30 days. We can expect sonar is being used to listen for them.• The CVR reportedly is a 120 minute CVR so it would contain only the last 120 minutes of flight (presuming it did not fail or was turned off prior to that).• I don't have data form the recording time of the FDR, but it is typically much longer.Primary versus Secondary Radar (brief tutorial)• Primary radar is based on the original military usage. It sends out a strong (KW to MW) signal and looks for a reflection from something.• Primary radar provides distance and location. Comparing returns speed can be determined. Strength of return can indicate size.• Stealth a/c and ships are designed to absorb or miss-direct the reflection so primary radar cannot see them.• Primary radar does not depend on the transponder, so turning off a transponder will not make an a/c disappear from primary.• Primary radar is less prevalent than secondary - and more typically military tho ATC's do use it.• Secondary Radar is really not Radar in the defined sense. It is directional communication.• In secondary radar a directional signal is sent out (much less powerful than primary). Any a/c with a transponder that receives it will respond (the transponder responds) with information about the aircraft.• Combined with the direction of the outgoing beam, the time of flight information and returned information, the a/c location and identity (and other info depending on the mode) is returned.• Secondary radar is the primary method used by ATC.• If the transponder fails or is turned off - secondary radar will not see the a/c.• In the case of MH370• The transponder was turned off - so the a/c disappeared from secondary (ATC) radar.• A target was tracked west, then northwest using primary radar. That target was correlated with SATCOM pings help determine it was MH370.Way-point Tracks• The use of way-points to the navigate are conjecture. They happen to line up with the direction indicated by the primary radar returns and Inmarsat data to the north.• While many believe the aircraft was under control - we cannot conclude if these way-point were used, or just along the path.Airworthiness Directive• The airworthiness directive about corrosion near the SATCOM antenna does not apply to this ship.• The ship DOES have SATCOM - but uses a different antennaCargo and Lithium Battery Fires.• There are reports that the cargo in MH370 did not receive normal X-ray screening.• There are also statements that the shipment held nothing hazardous or remarkable.• There are reports of a shipment of lithium batteries on the a/c and that perhaps they caused a fire.• It seems very unlikely a fire could be intense enough to disable the crew, but then the a/c would survive and fly for 7+ hours.• Opinion: as a firefighter, I doubt this. The fire would destroy the a/c.Aircraft Fuel State• It is reported the aircraft 45 to 60 minutes extra fuel. This would amount to about 7-7.5 hrs of fuel. This is a normal amount for this route.Search Areas (including those that have be halted)• Along the planed route. I believe searching in this area is ending or decreasing based on new data indicating the a/c is not there• West over the Malacca straight• North west of Malacca straight• Along the two loci predicted by the SATCOM pings which continue north to Kazakhstan/Turkmenistan and south to the India Ocean.• These are huge search areas - I do not have a good handle on what assets are deployed where• It appears the north loci is considered more likely because of primary radar signals that roughly correlate.• I would expect review of primary radar west of Australia is in process if not done.Mobile phones• We continue to have lots of discussion on "mobile phones" - can the connect in flight, etc.• We don't have any reports or evidence of that any passenger or crew mobile phone has registered with any network.• Until we have that data or reports - I believe the mobile phone discussions are not useful.Conspiracy Theories• There are lots of conspiracy theories out there - from the Malaysian government hiding something to pilot suicide, to hijacking to whatever.• The breadth of the countries searching alone makes me discount many of the government is hiding it aspects.• It is likely there are covert (secret) resources in the area that are trying to provide the info without revealing themselves.• Currently, it seems most believe there is some positive action here - hijacker or crew based.• Opinion: Mostly, I believe this is because a mechanical failure that selectively terminates communication, incapacitates the crew/passengers, but then allows the a/c to fly on uncontrolled for 7 hours seems unlikely.• Investigations of crew have begun in earnest.• Despite the belief this is incident required human actions - we have no evidence of that. Rather - no other theory seems credible.• Some of the more prevalent.• The pilot (senior, not FO) hijacked the plane to commit suicide. (See Pilot Conspiracy below).• Freescale engineers have been hijacked for sensitive US data. As an engineer who has worked with Freescale - I find that unsupportable. Companies send groups of employees around all the time. While many companies have policies about the # of executives on a flight - that typically is not enforced on regular employees.• There was something in the Cargo worth stealing - which is why it was not screened. Note: this makes no sense to me. It would require involvement of lots of people on the ground and it would be much easier to steal, on the ground.• The US hijacked the 777 using onboard FBW technology to fly it like a drone to Diego Garcea (this one wins the insanity case).• Related: There has been a claim by counter terrorist expert that this could be a "cyber hijack" - a malicious attack of a FBW a/c. I don't know where to go with this - only reporting it because I'm trying to stay ahead of the next craze. Opinion: (speaking as an EE) this is the stuff dreams are made of (bad dreams).Pilot Related Conspiracy Theories (some of this is my opinion).• The crew and passengers are a focus of investigation. Particularly the crew, because of the difficulty of managing an external cockpit intrusion.• The pilot has received a lot of attention because: 1) He supports opposition politics, 2) He has a mongo flight simulator, 3) There are rumors of family problems (debunked).• To address the data on a few of these:• 1) The pilot supports opposition politics and may have been at a trial of the opposition leader (confirmed 'ordinary' member of opposition party). Opinion: What is the motive for suicide in this case?• 2) The pilot has a very fancy flight simulator. People claim he used it to for this. Opinion: A 777 pilot does not need to train for the flying done - he knows how to do that stuff already. What he needs it planning for violent action/takeover. A flight simulator is no help.• 3) There are rumors of family problems reported from China. This has been reported as untrue - and generated laughter in the latest pressor.IN summary what we know is. (This has NOT changed)• The a/c disappeared from secondary radar and stopped communicating. We do not know why or what happened to it.• There is evidence from SATCOM and Radar that the a/c traveled west - then most likely north west.• SATCOM signals show the a/c was operating till at least 8:11am Malaysia time, over 7 hrs total flight time• We have not found it despite multiple governmental agencies from multiple countries searching hard.What seems likely.• A hijacking or positive intervention by human agency seems likely.• The erratic altitude and course may indicate a struggle on board.• While we would like to believe the a/c landed safely somewhere, that seems unlikely to have happened unobserved.That is all.Respectfully Submitted - rcair1
I keep wondering, Landsat Data is available free of charge, I wonder if anyone has looked to see if there are any new large dark smudges on the northern arc where this missing flight may be.
The thought had occurred to me as well. Number 8 is my avatar. The best resolution that the satellite can do is 15 meters with its band 8 panchromatic. What ever evidence you were looking for would have to be pretty big to be unambiguously identified as something worth investigating further. Part of the problem with using satellite based resources to look for the flight is that the disappearance happened at night local time so there is not enough light for the optical assets that may have been overhead to see anything. One could imagine that a contrail would be pretty visible to the higher resolution imaging satellites had it been daytime.
Quote from: kevin-rf on 03/17/2014 03:25 pmI keep wondering, Landsat Data is available free of charge, I wonder if anyone has looked to see if there are any new large dark smudges on the northern arc where this missing flight may be.The thought had occurred to me as well. Number 8 is my avatar. The best resolution that the satellite can do is 15 meters with its band 8 panchromatic. What ever evidence you were looking for would have to be pretty big to be unambiguously identified as something worth investigating further. Part of the problem with using satellite based resources to look for the flight is that the disappearance happened at night local time so there is not enough light for the optical assets that may have been overhead to see anything. One could imagine that a contrail would be pretty visible to the higher resolution imaging satellites had it been daytime.
btw. The summary they keep posting at the top of threads as they start new threads over on airliners.net (They are on thread 32, and we thought SpaceX threads where bad)http://www.airliners.net/aviation-forums/general_aviation/read.main/6027829/[snip]
Now I suspect that any U.S. intelligence asset that covered that part of the world is getting a second look and people are digging through the noise in the data looking for something unusual. But it would not surprise me if they don't have much to work with. We do not watch all the world all the time, and there's no reason to cover that part of the ocean. Just look at a map, there's nothing really interesting in that area.
Quote from: Blackstar on 03/18/2014 02:22 amNow I suspect that any U.S. intelligence asset that covered that part of the world is getting a second look and people are digging through the noise in the data looking for something unusual. But it would not surprise me if they don't have much to work with. We do not watch all the world all the time, and there's no reason to cover that part of the ocean. Just look at a map, there's nothing really interesting in that area.Blackstar, looks like SattrackCam LEIDEN Station (B)LOG Just did an analysis of SIGNIT resources available in the search area.http://sattrackcam.blogspot.com/Edit: Better link that is anchored to the actual blog post, http://sattrackcam.blogspot.com/2014/03/open-question-could-us-military-sigint.html
Quote from: kevin-rf on 03/18/2014 11:30 amBlackstar, looks like SattrackCam LEIDEN Station (B)LOG Just did an analysis of SIGNIT resources available in the search area.http://sattrackcam.blogspot.com/Edit: Better link that is anchored to the actual blog post, http://sattrackcam.blogspot.com/2014/03/open-question-could-us-military-sigint.htmlI posted that link and a pretty picture earlier in the thread
Blackstar, looks like SattrackCam LEIDEN Station (B)LOG Just did an analysis of SIGNIT resources available in the search area.http://sattrackcam.blogspot.com/Edit: Better link that is anchored to the actual blog post, http://sattrackcam.blogspot.com/2014/03/open-question-could-us-military-sigint.html
Article from the Financial Times about why it's unlikely reconnaissance satellites will be able to find this aircraft.http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/c97a2766-ad32-11e3-af3e-00144feab7de.html#axzz2wLhKkQyk