He said [a reusable Earth-Mars system] was even more challenging.
Quote from: StephenB on 08/10/2012 09:13 pmHe said [a reusable Earth-Mars system] was even more challenging.No kidding?? Running in circles in space is harder than crashing back into our thick atmosphere? Tapping the NSF brain trust for thoughts on this one.
Where will you publish it?
Zubrin's introduction starts at 58m 34s.Elon's talk starts at 1hr 15m.The item of news which I noticed in here is that the $500k ticket to Mars price is based on a fully reusable Mars transportation system that Elon has devised.He starts talking about reusability at 1hr 29m.
The poorly lit interlaced low bitrate video of all the talks is pretty unacceptable. It looks like it's taken from VHS by amateurs.
Or we're you being sarcastic?
I've nearly finished writing it - all I need to do now is get some software to convert a large Word file into a PDF!
Quote from: Dalhousie on 08/12/2012 05:40 amWhere will you publish it?I'm calling the article *Version 1.0* because the more detailed, full-length version will be 'peer-reviewed' first by a couple NASA engineer friends of mine. I'm not a trained Engineer - just a Science Fiction writer. Many quality Sci-Fi writers: Clarke, Asimov, Baxter, Stanley-Robinson - have science or engineering backgrounds - I do not, so that effectively makes me second-rate. So until I've had it looked over, only a more cut-down version will reach limited eyes.The final magazine of the soon to be disbanded 'N.Z. Spaceflight Association' will have that rather cut-down version of the article. Some illustrations I've done by hand - the editor may not use them - but they are more like 'place holders' until I can persuade someone who is a professional or semi-professional artist to do them. If it 'passes muster' I'm happy to then post it somewhere on here so folk can see it. I don't imagine for a minute it will generate the same stir that 'DIRECT' did a few years back.EDIT: Thumbnails of some of my drawings: 'ganged' Earth Departure propulsion stages (based on Falcon 9 second stage), Command Dragon with 'Long Trunk' Service Module - lots of storable propellants, 10,000lb thrust hypergolic engine, ganged MOI/TEI propulsion stages with 2x hypergolic engines - stages are propellant-only and based on the Long Trunk Dragon Service Module.
Can't say I agree with him on the need for a ground to LEO FRLV, but I most definitely agree on the need for a fully reusable system going to and from LEO to any other destination. Still think that ground to LEO RLV's are and always will be cost prohibitive but I will be happy if the RFL project proves me wrong.
Plus, how are you going to re-use an all chemical system?
all I need to do now is get some software to convert a large Word file into a PDF!
Quantum, what was your problem with the keynote address by Richard Gott? I thought it was a riot.
My understanding is that the $500.000 price is from LEO to Mars...
Quote from: IRobot on 08/12/2012 09:25 pmMy understanding is that the $500.000 price is from LEO to Mars...Who is paying for the launch then?The example he gives in the video is of someone on earth paying $500k to "move to mars", which necessities launch from earth plus the transport there.
Hearing Elon's speech at the Mars Society reunion I had, once again, this odd, uncomfortable sensation.He can't be a real person. He has no place in the real world. At most Elon Musk should be a character in a comic book.And I know it's not just me. He is irritatingly weird for so many.He is because he shatters everyone's (even mine) preconceptions about what a geek -and not just a geek but a nutty geek- should be.By his words he should be expending his weekends roaming one scifi convention or other, disguised like an empire trooper or something. He should be boring to death his relatives and coworkers with fantasies about space exploration, and fusion reactors, and new particles found by the LHC, and so on and so forth.What he, definitely, should not be doing is building anything remotely resembling real, useful, hardware. He should not have founded at least three different companies in three completely different fields, and not gone broke in the first year. Even worse, he should not have become a millionaire, first, and then a billionaire with them.When my relatives hear me talk about colonizing Mars they know all they have to do is keep calm for a little while and switch the conversation to a more interesting subject as soon as possible, like the last Big Brother development, or how ugly the present political scandal is, or how hot was today, or something.What they need not is to actually think about what I'm saying.What for? I'm just one of those futuristic, out of the world, daydreamers.Problem is they can't do the same with someone like Elon Musk ... although they try. They try hard.It's evident even here.The most "feet on the ground" people around here had been saying once and again that he was doomed to fail ... and still are, just with a bit less conviction, but none the less ...For most outside here I think it's just that they don't want to waste their time with what they think is only fairy tales, or at least something that will never have any measurable impact on their lives.For us I think it's a mix between fear and jealousy. Fear that in the end he might not deliver. Jealousy that he could do what so many before failed to do.Yep, an irritating fellow.
My guess is he thinks government will.
Quote from: QuantumG on 08/13/2012 02:38 amMy guess is he thinks government will.That or early adopters willing to spend more.
A string of posts above give the impression of mushin. Encouraging. My quiet mantra is that lunar ice is the glacial lake outburst flood that will make Mars 'happen'.
to be honest things would need to be pretty bad to swap our green and blue jewel, teaming with everything we need to move to a red, irradiated, desert. Sure the trip there would be good, but you would need to spend the rest of your life living on it. lEts face it Mars makes the background for most post apocalypse movies look like 5 star resorts.Some might do it but I think it would be limited number especially when large numbers started to die from damage DNA created horrible health problems.
to be honest things would need to be pretty bad to swap our green and blue jewel, teaming with everything we need to move to a red, irradiated, desert.
Quote from: corneliussulla on 08/13/2012 10:07 pmto be honest things would need to be pretty bad to swap our green and blue jewel, teaming with everything we need to move to a red, irradiated, desert. You know there's people in this world who think differently to you right?
There's lots of ways to do it.. I wonder how many years until we find out what Musk's particular variation is..
At $500,000 there are millions of people that could afford it. If 0.1% of people take the opportunity that is enough for a martian country to form. Reasoning hardly matters much. People will have all sorts of reasons.
Anyone seriously contemplating a move to Mars should ask themselves one simple question: Is there any place on Earth you wouldn't want to live? If the answer is "yes," then you shouldn't even think of moving to Mars. The absolute worst places on Earth are far more hospitable than Mars. If living in an igloo at the south pole doesn't appeal to you, forget about Mars.
Is there any place on Earth you wouldn't want to live? If the answer is "yes," then you shouldn't even think of moving to Mars.
You don't find the idea of going to Mars appealing we get it.People have different opinions to you. Get over it.
I don't think about Mars colonization much. I say, let's get at least some astronauts there first, which is still a long way off. Even one base on Mars is going to be very expensive, and risky. I'm hoping though that scientific bases on Mars will be as common as bases in the Antarctic, and people won't mind it all. If we spend time on Mars and really get to know how to live and work on the planet, and then colonization becomes practical, I'd see no reason to hold them back. My point is that colonization is neither possible nor practical at the moment. So I just think the discussion is kind of silly, we are still very far off.
I am aware that people think differently to me. I suppose my point is that once the reality becomes obvious there wont be enough of these people to make any sort of Mars habitation successful. ELon talks about 500k a seat, but you need to have infrastructure when you get there and it needs to have spare parts because one failure is to many. Huge amounts of material will be required along the settlers.
Quote from: QuantumG on 08/14/2012 05:48 amYou don't find the idea of going to Mars appealing we get it.People have different opinions to you. Get over it.I am aware that people think differently to me. I suppose my point is that once the reality becomes obvious there wont be enough of these people to make any sort of Mars habitation successful. ELon talks about 500k a seat, but you need to have infrastructure when you get there and it needs to have spare parts because one failure is to many. Huge amounts of material will be required along the settlers. living of the land will not be easy and probably not possible for quite some time
dwarfs
I'm hoping though that scientific bases on Mars will be as common as bases in the Antarctic [snip]
Is any sort of ISRU (besides air for breathing) used in Antarctica? Is even their water flown in? I suspect that we have a bit of basic research to do in ISRU before it's ready for prime time.
This notion that humans have to become a "multi-planetary" species sounds so nutty to me. Scientists don't ascribe to apocalytic visions based on bad 1990's Hollywood films. They develop theories on the basis of rational thought and empirical data, things which The Mars Society cult seems to care little about.Global warming? Even the most pessimistic scenarios don't predict that Earth will become uninhabitable. If you melted all the ice on Earth, there would still be plenty of land for humans to live on.Asteroid impacts? Extinction level events are incredibly rare. There is no reason to believe that we are on the brink of another major impact. Even if we were, there is no reason to believe that life would be worth living on a planet with no air, no indigenous life, negligible resources, and an awful climate.It is possible that Musk and Zubrin are bold visionaries who genuinely want to save humanity. It is also possible that they are the latest in a long line of ego-driven fanatics selling their apocalytic vision of the future. Just because they wrap themselves in the veneer of "science" and the "space program" doesn't make their ideas less ridiculous...or dangerous.
@MATTBLAKQuote from: MATTBLAK on 08/12/2012 05:25 amI've nearly finished writing it - all I need to do now is get some software to convert a large Word file into a PDF! Let us know when you're done with your paper. Look forward to reading it.
Quote from: catiare on 08/14/2012 02:05 pm@MATTBLAKQuote from: MATTBLAK on 08/12/2012 05:25 amI've nearly finished writing it - all I need to do now is get some software to convert a large Word file into a PDF! Let us know when you're done with your paper. Look forward to reading it.Well; I'll keep polishing it. But I know there will be criticism when it doesn't have somebodies pet technology - "What?! No propellant depots, no SEP, no large nuclear reactors, no large-scale propellant ISRU, no large six person crews, no 1000km range crew Rovers, no re-usable launchers and Mars Cycler re-usable vehicles? And chemical propulsion only?!" I also have a feeling that my mass figures are optimistic here and there. Some may also object to the Apollo-style paradigm of throwing away modules and returning to Earth merely with one re-entry capsule, the crew and some rocks & regolith.But my mission design is merely an extrapolation of upgraded Space X hardware, and using a modular architecture that removes expensive, new technologies from the critical path to funding and thus mission success. Because as we all know - No bucks; no Buck Rogers. And being modular means that new technologies and hardware can be phased in gradually to increase capability and efficiency and also increase crew size.This and other semi-austere mission designs would never mean to be permanent. After a decade of several long surface sortie missions, a site for a base be settled on and mission modules could no longer be discarded after just one, 18 month use. Crew sizes would increase and more powerful pressurized crew Rovers would be needed.But start relatively small and Get There. Last year, Robert Zubrin was criticized for bringing out a mission design that only used two Astronauts and minimum spacecraft and hardware. I've been attempting to bridge the gap between his concept and 'Battlestar Galactica' concepts with nuclear propulsion and large crews. Like Bob Zubrin says; If you want to go to Mars, go to Mars.
Communism is a dangerous idea, Ayn Randian ideals are dangerous ideas.
I think you are not making sufficient allowance for the different preferences people have. Some people seek mainly their own comfort. But some are attracted by danger, by novelty and by hardship. Many are motivated by the significance of what they are doing. Think! Establishing a beachhead for the human race on another planet!Personally, I am probably closer to your line of thinking. I am afraid that I like my comfort too much to be a colonist on Mars. But you need to face the possibility that many of these other people have thought about it and they still want to go. Out of a population of billions there must be millons who would. We have a name for those kind of people. They're called pioneers.
It is possible that Musk and Zubrin are bold visionaries who genuinely want to save humanity. It is also possible that they are the latest in a long line of ego-driven fanatics selling their apocalytic vision of the future.
Musk has actually said he thinks our run on Earth is likely to be tens of thousands of years. When he talks about risk mitigation, it's from the consequences being huge, not the probability being high.
I wouldn't be surprised if we could get a mostly closed system with food within the next ~20 years. Might not be a balanced diet (people would need supplements), but you'd be able to get most of your calories.I'm not sure I see the problem. Even Musk on his optimistic days isn't suggesting faster than that.
I would also recommend a milk cow or two. If you have sheep, you can make your own wool garments as well.@ MATTBLAK if you need a pdf and you can't just "save as" a pdf, I recommend "do-pdf" from dopdf.com--it's free and it works great.
There are 10,000,000 millionaires on the planet. ... Keep in mind, the average millionaire is in his 50s and 20% of them are retired.
This notion that humans have to become a "multi-planetary" species sounds so nutty to me. Scientists don't ascribe to apocalytic visions based on bad 1990's Hollywood films. They develop theories on the basis of rational thought and empirical data, things which The Mars Society cult seems to care little about.
1) In 5 billions years the earth will be swallowed by the sun.
Well; I'll keep polishing it. But I know there will be criticism when it doesn't have somebodies pet technology - "What?! No propellant depots, no SEP, no large nuclear reactors, no large-scale propellant ISRU, no large six person crews, no 1000km range crew Rovers, no re-usable launchers and Mars Cycler re-usable vehicles? And chemical propulsion only?!"
I also have a feeling that my mass figures are optimistic here and there.
Some may also object to the Apollo-style paradigm of throwing away modules and returning to Earth merely with one re-entry capsule, the crew and some rocks & regolith.
But my mission design is merely an extrapolation of upgraded Space X hardware, and using a modular architecture that removes expensive, new technologies from the critical path to funding and thus mission success. Because as we all know - No bucks; no Buck Rogers. And being modular means that new technologies and hardware can be phased in gradually to increase capability and efficiency and also increase crew size.This and other semi-austere mission designs would never mean to be permanent. After a decade of several long surface sortie missions, a site for a base be settled on and mission modules could no longer be discarded after just one, 18 month use. Crew sizes would increase and more powerful pressurized crew Rovers would be needed.
Really would depend on what plants and animals you bring and how much space you got.
It's a dead planet because it's in the dead zone
This notion that humans have to become a "multi-planetary" species sounds so nutty to me. Scientists don't ascribe to apocalytic visions based on bad 1990's Hollywood films. They develop theories on the basis of rational thought and empirical data, things which The Mars Society cult seems to care little about.Global warming?...Asteroid impacts?...It is possible that Musk and Zubrin are bold visionaries who genuinely want to save humanity. It is also possible that they are the latest in a long line of ego-driven fanatics selling their apocalytic vision of the future. Just because they wrap themselves in the veneer of "science" and the "space program" doesn't make their ideas less ridiculous...or dangerous.
That's a fairly strong anti-HSF stance for this forum. But I'm sure it represent a large portion of the way people may think out there.
It is possible that Musk and Zubrin are bold visionaries who genuinely want to save humanity. It is also possible that they are the latest in a long line of ego-driven fanatics selling their apocalytic vision of the future. Just because they wrap themselves in the veneer of "science" and the "space program" doesn't make their ideas less ridiculous...or dangerous.
Another reason for disapproval will be if the plans result in a high probability that most travelers will (sooner or later) die an unnatural death on Mars. I think that social pressure resulting from that situation would be unbearable for our politicians. The government couldn't afford to rescue them so the program would be legally halted.
Quote from: majormajor42 on 08/15/2012 10:45 amThat's a fairly strong anti-HSF stance for this forum. But I'm sure it represent a large portion of the way people may think out there.Speaking only for myself, it's not anti-HSF, it's anti-bad excuses for HSF.I'm wildly pro-HSF, so I create a high burden for advocating it, lest my bias cause me to rationalize something that doesn't really make sense.If I were anti-HSF lower costs would be annoying. But I'm not, so I see it as very important progress for something I really want to see.
This notion that humans have to become a "multi-planetary" species sounds so nutty to me.
Just because they wrap themselves in the veneer of "science" and the "space program" doesn't make their ideas less ridiculous...or dangerous.
Nobody will force _you_ to board a Mars-bound rocket.
Simple organisms can exist in environments in which very small amounts of resources are available, complex organisms require greater resources to be available for them to survive.This same rule applies to civilizations, primitive societies required little in the way of resources, our civilization, in comparison, requires vast quantities of very concentrated energy, energy that can be produced for a very high EROI.And that's what there has to be for a colony to be self-sustaining on Mars - or Antarctica.If the infrastructure required to support each person is too vast, it'll all fall over because each person is physically unable to maintain their share of it.
>.Musk and Zubrin have that "gene", and in them it's very active.P.D. I say "gene" (with quotation marks) because I don't know if this is a trait hidden in our genome or not, >
The infrastructure question was one I was going to bring up before, but you've expressed it better than I was going to.
Quote from: douglas100 on 08/16/2012 02:42 pmThe infrastructure question was one I was going to bring up before, but you've expressed it better than I was going to.Thanks!It's all a bit like asking the crew of Biosphere 2 to build that huge structure (in a far more hostile environment than Arizona) and then to maintain is indefinitely while still doing all the house work, farming, etc.
Or maybe we're on Mars because of the magnificent science that can be done there - the gates of the wonder world are opening in our time.
Quote from: Andrew_W on 08/16/2012 07:05 pmQuote from: douglas100 on 08/16/2012 02:42 pmThe infrastructure question was one I was going to bring up before, but you've expressed it better than I was going to.Thanks!It's all a bit like asking the crew of Biosphere 2 to build that huge structure (in a far more hostile environment than Arizona) and then to maintain is indefinitely while still doing all the house work, farming, etc.This is why machinery is essential.
I'm hoping that technologies like 3D printing will start making more and more things possible to build on site. Once it starts becoming really mature and capable, the major value added item is programming, and the transport cost of code to Mars is just the cost of transmission.
Rather than energy, I was wondering about the number of different skills that would be required to make a Mars colony self sufficient. Many different technical skills would be needed: mining, extraction, repair of complex equipment, manufacture from indigenous raw materials, to name a few. And that would mean quite a large population (I've no idea how large) even with extensive multi-skilling and unlimited access to information from Earth.
Quote from: douglas100 on 08/16/2012 02:42 pmRather than energy, I was wondering about the number of different skills that would be required to make a Mars colony self sufficient. Many different technical skills would be needed: mining, extraction, repair of complex equipment, manufacture from indigenous raw materials, to name a few. And that would mean quite a large population (I've no idea how large) even with extensive multi-skilling and unlimited access to information from Earth.there was a reasonably recent study on that - sorry, don't have a reference at the moment. the numbers were far apart - low thousands for sufficient genetic diversity to avoid inbreeding, but a million or more to maintain sufficient specialization (of people's skills) that our current level of technology could be maintained.
I really doubt a million is required. We don't need iPhones on Mars.
Quote from: starsilk on 08/16/2012 10:23 pmQuote from: douglas100 on 08/16/2012 02:42 pmRather than energy, I was wondering about the number of different skills that would be required to make a Mars colony self sufficient. Many different technical skills would be needed: mining, extraction, repair of complex equipment, manufacture from indigenous raw materials, to name a few. And that would mean quite a large population (I've no idea how large) even with extensive multi-skilling and unlimited access to information from Earth.there was a reasonably recent study on that - sorry, don't have a reference at the moment. the numbers were far apart - low thousands for sufficient genetic diversity to avoid inbreeding, but a million or more to maintain sufficient specialization (of people's skills) that our current level of technology could be maintained.I've wondered about that a lot. If you ever dig that up I'd appreciate it if you could post.
Quote from: starsilk on 08/16/2012 10:23 pmQuote from: douglas100 on 08/16/2012 02:42 pmRather than energy, I was wondering about the number of different skills that would be required to make a Mars colony self sufficient. Many different technical skills would be needed: mining, extraction, repair of complex equipment, manufacture from indigenous raw materials, to name a few. And that would mean quite a large population (I've no idea how large) even with extensive multi-skilling and unlimited access to information from Earth.there was a reasonably recent study on that - sorry, don't have a reference at the moment. the numbers were far apart - low thousands for sufficient genetic diversity to avoid inbreeding, but a million or more to maintain sufficient specialization (of people's skills) that our current level of technology could be maintained.I really doubt a million is required. We don't need iPhones on Mars. I also think specialization is a little over-rated. We'd all have to be handymen and handywomen on Mars. I know someone who builds rockets, makes lab equipment, integrates and designs computer systems (storage area networks, IP networks, servers, desktops, etc), gardens, smelts metals, designs and builds (solders and wire-wraps) electronic circuits, mows grass, bakes, cooks, does plumbing, cleans, knits, sews, roofs houses, does carpentry, does minor surgery, fixes cars and bikes, harvests and prepares natural rubber, makes stuff out of plastic, programs code to simulate supersonic conditions, builds lasers, and does quantum physics. As Heinlein says, specialization is for insects.
Some computers could be made with significantly less than a million people. Heck, if you can manufacture wires and insulation and sheet metal, you can make relays, with which you can make a crude computer. A vacuum tube triode can be made rather easily with some basic glass-blowing skills (or alternatively, a jar and some epoxy) and some appropriate wire. Even making semiconductor devices isn't out of the question at a small-scale.
I don't see why a large population - beyond 10,000 would be required for near self sufficiency in skills, information is one thing that technology makes very cheap.My concern is more with the construction and maintenance of the physical systems and structures a colony would require.On Earth, earth moving gear can get flogged to the point that a professional operator would replace it after only 3 - 5 years, I suspect that the operational life would be even less on Mars. Plastic greenhouse covers only last 5 years on Earth, no doubt far less in the higher UV environment of Mars, and if each of the colonist needs 3000m^2 of greenhouse to feed themselves, what do you use to allow illumination of the crop?If doing these things, growing crops, building homes, maintaining machinery, were as easy as some seem to imaging, well, here in the benign environment of Earth, with free air, water, sunlight, and cheap energy from fossil fuels, we'd all be living in mansions and only working a few hours a week.
Yes, I think this whole colonisation thing is being approached from the wrong angle. Really due to the distances and costs involved in getting people and supplies to Mars, you should be concentrating on looking for the most efficient and effective way of building your colony and it's resources. That doensn't necessarily imply the latest technolgy. Simpler methods may prove cheaper and more efficient. One thing about technology is that as it becomes more complex, the underlying supporting structures likewise become more complex with increasingly wide skill sets and so on.Simpler may in this case be more efficient and effective.
The reason we do not work only a few hours a week probably has more to do with competition. For example, 50 or so years ago only one parent worked for a salary and one looked after the home. Now we often have the situation that both parents get salaries yet still struggle to make ends meet. We wuz screwed! Likewise we probably could survive easily on 3 day working weeks and with cars that only drove 30km/hour if we legislated against anyone from working longer or driving faster. It would be a different lifestyle but I doubt it would force us back to horse and carriage.
I would very much like to see someone as successful and inspiring as Elon Musk pushing these self-sufficiency technologies. 90% of what it takes to settle mars could and should be done here on earth by demonstrating communities with very little exchange with the rest of the planet. For example domed little IT communities in some part of alaska previously considered uninhabitable. I think I would actually quite enjoy that lifestyle: Temperature control, a mall and internet inside and all in walking distance.. stark wilderness outside. One good road or rail passing though.
I think mankind on earth can survive a nuclear war, a super volcano outburst or a asteroid impact. The same disaster would likely kill the mars colony as contact with earth is lost.
Quote from: guckyfan on 08/17/2012 07:48 amI think mankind on earth can survive a nuclear war, a super volcano outburst or a asteroid impact. The same disaster would likely kill the mars colony as contact with earth is lost.Kind of like what happened to the Norse settlements in Greenland...Noel
Any colony on Mars would be trading in things like computer chips with Earth. There's no question that state of the art computer chips have a very large footprint. For computer chips, it'd probably be cheaper to get them from Earth (per transistor) than from Mars, even after the capability to produce semiconductor devices is developed on Mars (i.e. for power electronics).
In economic terms, I've always seen Mars as being the R&R base for the astroid mining industry. Whilst that would be staged from HMO (Phobos, like as not) and EML-2 for delivery to Earth and Luna, the Phobos-based crews would need to have a relatively nearby non-freefall rest stop that isn't six months extra cruise away; Mars would be ideal.
Quote from: Robotbeat on 08/17/2012 04:27 amAny colony on Mars would be trading in things like computer chips with Earth. There's no question that state of the art computer chips have a very large footprint. For computer chips, it'd probably be cheaper to get them from Earth (per transistor) than from Mars, even after the capability to produce semiconductor devices is developed on Mars (i.e. for power electronics).Yes, they'd definitely be one of the last things to be switched to local manufacturing.
modern microcontrollers all use flash.
Quote from: Ben the Space Brit on 08/17/2012 03:21 pmIn economic terms, I've always seen Mars as being the R&R base for the astroid mining industry. Whilst that would be staged from HMO (Phobos, like as not) and EML-2 for delivery to Earth and Luna, the Phobos-based crews would need to have a relatively nearby non-freefall rest stop that isn't six months extra cruise away; Mars would be ideal.That will depend on how much the return delta-v from orbit to Mars costs.
Add laser/plasma cutting CNC machine-tool and 3d printer and welding robot and you can manufacture almost anything, including spare parts to machine-tools you have.
PS. Economy of the colony is much more difficult question. What the Martians can sell to Earth to pay for imports? (drugs & electronics & and anything else that can not be produced locally) Gold? Wolfram?
considering all the different things you can use an arduino (ie essentially an AVR microcontroller development board), it is pretty easy to use the same chip to do a heck of a lot of different things. and modern microcontrollers all use flash.
This machine can manufacture a lot of different things:Add laser/plasma cutting CNC machine-tool and 3d printer and welding robot and you can manufacture almost anything, including spare parts to machine-tools you have.
Quote from: Archer on 08/17/2012 07:02 pmThis machine can manufacture a lot of different things:Add laser/plasma cutting CNC machine-tool and 3d printer and welding robot and you can manufacture almost anything, including spare parts to machine-tools you have.Only if you have the right materials: there isn't just 'aluminium', there are many different kinds, each with their own particular materials properties. The stockpile of all the different materials you'd need is huge - and the alternative, a plant to produce them all from raw materials, likewise.Noel
How about this... Mars: Tax Haven.All the billionaires will move there for the tax dodge.
Quote from: Idiomatic on 08/16/2012 08:27 pmHow about this... Mars: Tax Haven.All the billionaires will move there for the tax dodge.If the billionaire converts their wealth into dollar bills and carries them on their spacecraft to Mars, about their only use would be to burn them for warmth when they get there.
Agreed that advanced Mars Colony concepts are off-topic, while advanced concepts which speak to how you get to Mars for $500,000 are on-topic. Robotbeat, solid thought experiment.
I reckon "How you get to mars for $500,000" also deserves it's own heading.
Quote from: ArbitraryConstant on 08/17/2012 01:50 pmQuote from: Robotbeat on 08/17/2012 04:27 amAny colony on Mars would be trading in things like computer chips with Earth. There's no question that state of the art computer chips have a very large footprint. For computer chips, it'd probably be cheaper to get them from Earth (per transistor) than from Mars, even after the capability to produce semiconductor devices is developed on Mars (i.e. for power electronics).Yes, they'd definitely be one of the last things to be switched to local manufacturing.They may need to reduce the number of different chip types by standardisation. Use the same power electronics in both cars and lifts. A single type of microprocessor could be used, possible with more than one make. EEPROMs can be made on Earth but blown on Mars allowing customising of the circuits.
The video provided Elon Musk's answer: a fully reusable Earth-to-Mars transportation system. Presumably with a whole lot of traffic.
Quote from: A_M_Swallow on 08/17/2012 05:54 pmThey may need to reduce the number of different chip types by standardisation. Use the same power electronics in both cars and lifts. A single type of microprocessor could be used, possible with more than one make. EEPROMs can be made on Earth but blown on Mars allowing customising of the circuits.FPGAs would be an answer to that.Also keep in ming not too long ago we built computers from mostly standardized components such as logic chips and even discrete transistors.If you end up needing to make everything on Mars one could return to older technology.{snip}As for displays VFDs and CRTs probably could be manufactured from native materials or DLPs chips shipped in from Earth.You could carry hundreds maybe even thousands of DLP chips for the same mass as one large screen LCD.
They may need to reduce the number of different chip types by standardisation. Use the same power electronics in both cars and lifts. A single type of microprocessor could be used, possible with more than one make. EEPROMs can be made on Earth but blown on Mars allowing customising of the circuits.
Quote from: dcporter on 08/18/2012 11:43 pmAgreed that advanced Mars Colony concepts are off-topic, while advanced concepts which speak to how you get to Mars for $500,000 are on-topic. Robotbeat, solid thought experiment.I doubt anyone will pay $500k to move to Mars if there isn't a safe, comfortable and practical colony there.
Yes, and it's all less likely to happen if Chairman Wolf cancels commercial crew, so let's discuss that too.
Quote from: Idiomatic on 08/16/2012 08:27 pmHow about this... Mars: Tax Haven.All the billionaires will move there for the tax dodge.If the billionaire converts their wealth into dollar bills and carries them on their spacecraft to Mars, about their only use would be to burn them for warmth when they get there.Money left in bank accounts on Earth will be subject to the taxes of the jurisdiction of that bank.Those billionaires will also need to pay large "fees" to support the infrastructure that keeps them alive and supplied. Though not truly taxes, they might as well be.cheers, Martin
No, that was always meant to be for a one-way ticket.
Quote from: BobCarver on 08/22/2012 09:58 pmNo, that was always meant to be for a one-way ticket.Citation needed.
Quote from: Robotbeat on 08/22/2012 10:35 pmQuote from: BobCarver on 08/22/2012 09:58 pmNo, that was always meant to be for a one-way ticket.Citation needed.The first time Musk mentioned this idea, he said it was specifically a one-way trip. If you have a reference to it being round-trip, the onus is on you to provide a citation, not me.
An onus on both your houses
I think he initially was reluctant about return trips but has since changed his mind.. it is a reusable system after all.
Hey, why not, if they're aiming for "airline like" operation... As low as $500K!** One-way price based on round-trip purchase. Requires two-year stay and 10-year advance booking. Non-refundable; change fee of $499K. Excludes: TMI, TEI, Mars EDL, Earth EDL and cis-Lunar transit fees; fuel surchange; ECLSS surchange; and mass fees. Oxygen, food and beverages available for purchase on board. Sleeping accommodations available at additional cost.
When Musk talks about $500K one-way, he's talking about Thanksgiving already. We need to worry about Columbus Day first.
That moment may be closer than anyone thinks. Musk declared recently that he could put a human on Mars in 10 to 20 years' time. It is a remarkable claim, yet even more astonishingly Musk tells me that he could do it for $5 billion, and possibly as little as $2 billion
Quote from: dcporter on 08/23/2012 02:09 amAn onus on both your housesLOL.Ok, ok. Here we are:http://www.wired.com/autopia/2012/03/elon-musk-says-ticket-to-mars-will-cost-500000/"“Land on Mars, a round-trip ticket — half a million dollars. It can be done,” he told the BBC."
Quote from: QuantumG on 08/23/2012 02:35 amI think he initially was reluctant about return trips but has since changed his mind.. it is a reusable system after all.Not only that, but the PR is bad. It doesn't matter if it's for settlement or whathaveyou, a one-way trip is interpreted as "suicide mission" by popular media.
So. You preposition two years of supplies for the first four or six one way candidates, promising them that you'll be back. Up there it would be a barter economy geared to survival only. Every two years another four, six, eight, dozen or so people would show up. I could see a yearly launch rate of low energy robotic supply missions which would start making the long term survivability of the colonly more and more feasible with each successful landing.
Quote from: JohnFornaro on 08/22/2012 06:21 pmSo. You preposition two years of supplies for the first four or six one way candidates, promising them that you'll be back. Up there it would be a barter economy geared to survival only. Every two years another four, six, eight, dozen or so people would show up. I could see a yearly launch rate of low energy robotic supply missions which would start making the long term survivability of the colonly more and more feasible with each successful landing.I don't think the scale Musk has in mind is anywhere near that small.
The radiation shielding requirements are likely to require that the transport will be a very large vessel built up in orbit which is capable of transporting a lot of people and equipment. A thick water shield will need to be provided, especially if the expedition intends to return to Earth. Total radiation exposure would otherwise be too large. Yes, we need to see Musk's plans because the only way I see it being feasible is to construct a cycling transporter in orbit. The cycler would likely be powered by very large SEP because getting a nuclear fuel source approved is going to be politically impossible in the next few decades. And, chemical fuel is too expensive to resupply from the ground (Earth, Moon or Mars). The cycler needs to be very low maintenance and SEP should fill that bill.
The cycler would likely be powered by very large SEP because getting a nuclear fuel source approved is going to be politically impossible in the next few decades. And, chemical fuel is too expensive to resupply from the ground (Earth, Moon or Mars). The cycler needs to be very low maintenance and SEP should fill that bill.
There'd likely be some kind of currency, though it may work a little differently. Bartering isn't as efficient. But if you aren't careful managing the money supply, you can have problems with currency as well...
* One-way price based on round-trip purchase....
The radiation shielding requirements are likely to require that the transport will be a very large vessel built up in orbit which is capable of transporting a lot of people and equipment.
You preposition two years of supplies for the first four or six one way candidates, promising them that you'll be back. yada yada.
Hi, isn't the point of a cycler that it is unpowered?http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mars_cyclerPresumably you match velocities with the cycler using a much smaller vessel. It lets you make the same half year journey in a hotel instead of a tin can.
Low-volume manufacture do not need HUGE infrastructure.This machine can manufacture a lot of different things:Add laser/plasma cutting CNC machine-tool and 3d printer and welding robot and you can manufacture almost anything, including spare parts to machine-tools you have.Modern CNC tools that martian colony have initially can produce plenty of parts for other machines before they wear off beyond repair.Early 20-th century/late 19-th century machine-tools don't need any electronics to work, but they can produce details like gears or springs and still be fully automated.With 1930-th technology it is possible to make fully automated production lines - using contacts and coils (relays; ladder logic). And it is pretty simple. Back in Russia I've seen machine tools that were manufactured in 1905 and are still in use. Also I've seen fully automated lines that use contacts and relays only, that are also still in use - and are competitive!Also don't forget that there is a way to produce goods of higher quality than the machines you have can. It is called "selective assembly" (you need high quality sensors that have to be imported though).Automation of assembly is much harder, although it would be much easier on Mars because of low gravity.PS. Economy of the colony is much more difficult question. What the Martians can sell to Earth to pay for imports? (drugs & electronics & and anything else that can not be produced locally) Gold? Wolfram?
I've nearly finished a paper for a magazine outlining how Elon *might* do a Design Reference Mission to Mars - not a 'colonization' just merely getting 3 Astronauts there and then back with 100kg of rocks and regolith. No fancy, schmancy propulsion and Depot technology on the critical path to mission success; just lots of off-the-shelf gear mixed with some nearly-here technology and lots of Falcon Heavy and other EELV launches. What IS on the critical path is funding - slicing billions from the cost means not spending a decade developing VASIMR, advanced nuclear power, large scale ISRU etc.Whatever Design Reference Mission Elon and his team come up with - it will no doubt differ in some details from my careful, speculative mission design. I've nearly finished writing it - all I need to do now is get some software to convert a large Word file into a PDF!