Author Topic: Predictions for 2017  (Read 19429 times)

Offline Avariel

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Re: Predictions for 2017
« Reply #40 on: 03/03/2012 02:48 PM »
Its speculative fiction time again? I think this time I'm going to go for something a bit darker...

In 2017 NASA is in the process of being restructured after the new President announced the cancellation of STS and a five year moratorium on all human spaceflight while a committee assesses the future for American space exploration.

The international partners were, needless to say, somewhat dismayed at the decision to 'temporarily mothball' the International Space Station, but with the war in Iran hotting up resources are needed elsewhere.

Meanwhile the financial scandal surrounding SpaceX continues to make headlines with investors and customers upset over huge hidden losses and broken satellite launch contracts. Many point to the spectacular launch failure of the Falcon Heavy as the day the dream went sour for Elon Musk...

Offline SpacexULA

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Re: Predictions for 2017
« Reply #41 on: 03/03/2012 03:15 PM »
Its speculative fiction time again? I think this time I'm going to go for something a bit darker...

In 2017 NASA is in the process of being restructured after the new President announced the cancellation of STS and a five year moratorium on all human spaceflight while a committee assesses the future for American space exploration.

The international partners were, needless to say, somewhat dismayed at the decision to 'temporarily mothball' the International Space Station, but with the war in Iran hotting up resources are needed elsewhere.

Meanwhile the financial scandal surrounding SpaceX continues to make headlines with investors and customers upset over huge hidden losses and broken satellite launch contracts. Many point to the spectacular launch failure of the Falcon Heavy as the day the dream went sour for Elon Musk...

Wow I think I don't like this game any more
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Offline renclod

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Re: Predictions for 2017
« Reply #42 on: 03/03/2012 03:19 PM »
In 2017 the new president will be happy to support the further progress of the LEO commercial space station project - started during the second term of president Obama, fundend by NASA.

In 2017 SLS would be closer to reach SRR. Almost there.


Offline Avariel

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Re: Predictions for 2017
« Reply #43 on: 03/03/2012 03:20 PM »
Don't worry, just had a bit of gloom to expend. I'm certain it will all be ok. ^_^

Offline kch

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Re: Predictions for 2017
« Reply #44 on: 03/03/2012 03:35 PM »
Its speculative fiction time again? I think this time I'm going to go for something a bit darker...

In 2017 NASA is in the process of being restructured after the new President announced the cancellation of STS and a five year moratorium on all human spaceflight while a committee assesses the future for American space exploration.

The international partners were, needless to say, somewhat dismayed at the decision to 'temporarily mothball' the International Space Station, but with the war in Iran hotting up resources are needed elsewhere.

Meanwhile the financial scandal surrounding SpaceX continues to make headlines with investors and customers upset over huge hidden losses and broken satellite launch contracts. Many point to the spectacular launch failure of the Falcon Heavy as the day the dream went sour for Elon Musk...

Wow I think I don't like this game any more

Glad you see that it's a game, but such things do cut both ways.  Yoda said it well:

"When you look at the dark side, careful you must be.   For the dark side looks back."

;)

Online Ben the Space Brit

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Re: Predictions for 2017
« Reply #45 on: 03/03/2012 05:24 PM »
- Stratolaunch runs out of funds and goes away without launching anything.

Highly probable.
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Offline ChileVerde

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Re: Predictions for 2017
« Reply #46 on: 03/03/2012 08:36 PM »
Glad you see that it's a game, but such things do cut both ways.  Yoda said it well:

"When you look at the dark side, careful you must be.   For the dark side looks back."

;)

Yoda cribbed from Crazy Fred Nietzsche, but both were absolutely right:

Wer mit Ungeheuern kämpft, mag zusehn,
    daßer nicht dabei zum Ungeheuer wird.
Und wenn du lange in einen Abgrund blickst,
    blickt der Abgrund auch in dich hinein.

He who fights with monsters should take care
  lest he thereby become a monster.
And if you gaze for long into an abyss,
  the abyss gazes also into you.




"I can’t tell you which asteroid, but there will be one in 2025," Bolden asserted.

Offline RyanC

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Re: Predictions for 2017
« Reply #47 on: 03/08/2012 07:00 PM »
Meanwhile the financial scandal surrounding SpaceX continues to make headlines with investors and customers upset over huge hidden losses and broken satellite launch contracts. Many point to the spectacular launch failure of the Falcon Heavy as the day the dream went sour for Elon Musk...

As speculation goes, this has a pretty good probability of happening.

It's inevitable that one of the NeuSpace companies has a major anomaly [tm] -- Orbital was able to weather it's anomaly -- putting the OCO at the bottom of the ocean -- because it's a strange mix of an old and new space company, and was able to handle the aftermath of that one.

But do any of the other NeuSpace companies have that kind of internal experience and leadership at the top to manage what happens after said Major Anomaly?

Offline QuantumG

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Re: Predictions for 2017
« Reply #48 on: 03/08/2012 09:44 PM »
There's a fine line between speculation and slander..
Jeff Bezos has billions to spend on rockets and can go at whatever pace he likes! Wow! What pace is he going at? Well... have you heard of Zeno's paradox?

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: Predictions for 2017
« Reply #49 on: 03/08/2012 09:49 PM »
Meanwhile the financial scandal surrounding SpaceX continues to make headlines with investors and customers upset over huge hidden losses and broken satellite launch contracts. Many point to the spectacular launch failure of the Falcon Heavy as the day the dream went sour for Elon Musk...

As speculation goes, this has a pretty good probability of happening.

It's inevitable that one of the NeuSpace companies has a major anomaly [tm] -- Orbital was able to weather it's anomaly -- putting the OCO at the bottom of the ocean -- because it's a strange mix of an old and new space company, and was able to handle the aftermath of that one.

But do any of the other NeuSpace companies have that kind of internal experience and leadership at the top to manage what happens after said Major Anomaly?
You could say the same thing about any aerospace venture. If you talked the same way about the Shuttle failures, this thread would be quickly locked because of the response, so maybe we can tame down the rhetoric? This is a hard, HARD business. :)

But SpaceX does have the experience and leadership to manage launch failures. They had three quite major failures right at the beginning with Falcon 1, and still survived after all! They haven't had a major failure since then.
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Offline Avariel

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Re: Predictions for 2017
« Reply #50 on: 03/09/2012 11:43 AM »
But SpaceX does have the experience and leadership to manage launch failures. They had three quite major failures right at the beginning with Falcon 1, and still survived after all! They haven't had a major failure since then.

In the 2020 and beyond thread I continued the fictional story with just such an outcome. ^_^

Online DeanG1967

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Re: Predictions for 2017
« Reply #51 on: 03/10/2012 01:58 AM »
Wow, this is one of the most depressing threads I've seen in a while.

Wow, this is one of the most pointless threads I've seen in a while.

I'd go further, but I'd have to ban myself ;)

Now that is funny Chris.....thanks for some levity

Offline baddux

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Re: Predictions for 2017
« Reply #52 on: 09/28/2017 12:10 PM »
I make my own guesses, in 2017...

- SLS is being developed but has gone through modifications and there's two years delay, so now the inaugural flight is set to 2019
- Orion has flown to LEO with Delta IV Heavy (unmanned) in 2016
- First man in suborbit in 2014, tourist flights started in 2015
- Commercial lunar flyby is still five years away (unfortunately)
- Spacex has just started to fly people to the ISS
- FH maiden flight happened in mid 2014, the rocket is available to order but no other flights have happened
- Stratolaunch is estimated to fly in 2019

Ok, time for judgement:
- SLS: About correct. Don't know any modifications though
- Orion: It flew already in 2014. But no other flights as suspected
- Suborbital: Too optimistic, still nothing
- Lunar flyby: About correct
- Commercial Crew: Too optimistic
- Falcon Heavy: Too optimistic
- Stratolaunch: About correct

So the only thing that has actually happened was Orion test flight

Offline scienceguy

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Re: Predictions for 2017
« Reply #53 on: 09/28/2017 01:55 PM »
A method for making carbon nanotubes will have been developed by 2017.

At least one form of fusion (polywell, or that one where they crush a can of deuterium or something else) will have demonstrated net power by 2017.

I was wrong on both counts. O well, doesn't hurt to speculate.
e^(pi)i = -1

Offline scienceguy

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Re: Predictions for 2017
« Reply #54 on: 09/28/2017 02:20 PM »
I would like to point out that this thread and its predictions are from 2012.
e^(pi)i = -1

Re: Predictions for 2017
« Reply #55 on: 09/29/2017 12:34 PM »
What has happened in human space flight after five years, in 2017?

- Is SLS still developed? When is the estimated first launch? Or has it happened already?

SLS canceled after development becoming bloated with mission creep and NASA top-heavy management causing huge cost overruns and schedule delays, once Congress FINALLY gets it that there's no mission for it without payloads they're unwilling to pay for.  "Something else" takes its place to keep the checks flowing to the space state contractors.


- Is Orion flown to space?

Orion flies unmanned on D4H but then??  In limbo-- too big and expensive for LEO/crew transport, no money forthcoming for anything else...  looking more and more like cancelation bait...


- Are commercial suborbital flights ongoing? By which company/companies?
 

Commercial suborbital hops lose most of their customer base after a highly publicized accident results in one of the vehicles digging a substantial crater in the Mojave desert... Billionaires decide its better to be alive than dead and decide its more fun to take another vacation in the Riveira with lots of bimbos and enjoy being alive and rich.  Suborbital lingers for a few diehards but it's nothing more than a very expensive fad or stunt...


- What's the status of manned lunar flyby?

"Officially" the plan is still for a manned lunar flyby "at some point in the 2020's" and is used for justification for a follow on vehicle after SLS becomes bloated and is canceled.  BUT everybody realizes it's pretty much smoke and mirrors to get more development funding to the contractors, and not likely to happen, especially with NASA's periodically falling and otherwise flat budgets, with inflation eating deeply into that.


- Have commercial crew flights happened? By which companies?

Commercial crew still limping along, but slowly due to anemic funding by NASA and hostility in Congress.  Field is down to ULA CST-100 and SpaceX manned Dragon. 


- Falcon Heavy, how many flights has it flown?

Nearing completion and perhaps will have a test flight in the next year or so... if things hold. 


- Stratolaunch? Has it flown or when is the estimated first flight in 2017?

Stratolaunch abandoned after serious analysis of the design, development, construction, and operational difficulties are analyzed in depth...

If I *really* wanted to be negative--

In 2019, ISS is facing a situation much like Mir-- it's starting to fall apart.  With no shuttle available to launch large replacement parts, stop-gaps and band-aid "work arounds" have been keeping it patched together but its clear its days are numbered.  Europe is in dire straights financially, as is the US, and Russia can barely keep their Soyuz program going in rickety fashion.  US commercial/ European resupply keeping things going, but band-aids on top of band-aids only works so long.  "Research" aboard ISS pretty much seen as an abysmal failure-- a case of "build it and *nobody* came, a situation not helped by lack of transport.  In late 2019 ISS suffers a collision with space junk and is holed, and after a couple desperate missions cobbled together with Soyuz hauling crews up and parts sent up by ATV/HTV/Dragon, ISS repairs fail and the station is abandoned and deorbited. 
  As regional wars and resource problems and economic upheavals continue to sap the abilities of the space powers, and with no "anchor tenant" in ISS to keep things moving, LEO becomes a pretty quiet place.  China suffers the loss of a manned spacecraft in 2020 and due to reordering of their economy in the latest economic implosion rocking the world, the US, China, and Russia quietly abandon manned spaceflight and divert the resources elsewhere to more pressing needs... "officially" a few lingering, underfunded programs remain to keep up appearances, but with no money for deep space exploration and increasing hostility towards "government waste" it's becoming hard to justify to the general populations of Earth.  "Commercial manned spaceflight" dies with the loss of ISS and no forthcoming anchor tenant or gov't funding, and no "real need" demonstrated by industry to fund it. Commercial cargo/launch limps along on satellite launch capabilities... 

JWST cost overruns and mismanagement sours support for big-budget flagship programs, in the increasingly unstable economic conditions and worldwide austerity.  JWST FINALLY gets launched in 2018, but suffers a humiliating failure and never operates, poisoning support for such grandiose and expensive missions.  Smaller, less ambitious missions are all that get approved or funded. 

I guess if I wanted to be optimistic, I'd say:
SLS shifts gears a few times, runs overbudget and slips its schedule due to mission creep and funding cuts, but continues because Congress wants SOMETHING and nothing else is evident.

Orion continues slowly though manned flights won't occur until 2020 at the earliest.  ICPS can send it around the moon, but CPS funding has faltered and development is in limbo, future uncertain.  No payloads being funded so what it's all for, who knows...

ISS being serviced by commercial launches, ATV/HTV, and Soyuz.  Commercial crew coming along, perhaps 2018, but most likely slip to 2019 due to unforeseen difficulties similar to those seen at the beginning of the commercial resupply flights, and inadequate funding. 

ISS "aging gracefully" and minor problems have been fixed, but she's starting to show her age.  Irregardless, it's the only destination for the foreseeable future, so ISS extended to 2028, possibly 2030 (of course it is falling apart by that time just like Mir, but nobody will admit it as voices call for it to be extended to 2035, finally reality hits home when after a long happy life ISS suffers an unrecoverable problem and is deorbited in 2029). 

Russia limping along on a Soyuz replacement, but little funding delays the effort. 

China still flying about once per year to their man-tended space stations. 

US plans still up in the air-- there's plans aplenty but little funding.  Officially the US is going to Mars, in 2050.  Study and research continue, and a few "demonstration" programs are approved and ongoing, but far from an operational system. 

Suborbital flights never more than an expensive fad or stunt.  Dries up by 2020.  Plans for orbital commercial spaceflight still touted, but nothing solid until commercial crew is demonstrated...

IOW, pretty much more of the same...

Later!  OL JR :)
Wow, if you ignore the part about SLS cancellation and the 'if I want to be negative' part it's almost 100% accurate.  The virgin galactic accident, Falcon Heavy 2018, commercial crew 2018, maybe 19, commercial spaceflight touted but not concrete until commercial crew demo, ISS extended to 2028, orion delays ecc...Please do a 2027 follow-on if you're still lurking NSF  ;D
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Offline TakeOff

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Re: Predictions for 2017
« Reply #56 on: 10/09/2017 07:21 AM »
By the end of December 2017:c. People lobbying to get an EML-1/2 spacestation (so Orion has a destination).
What a great prediction! You foresaw the Deep Space Gateway, the lobbying for which has really has to be taken seriously now.

It is the more impressive since the DSG is so totally meaningless and bad in every respect, that I couldn't believe it or even understand that it was a real proposal the first times I heard of it, I could never have made that thing up. No one has ever suggested a cis-Lunar space station as the first step to interplanetary HSF. But you seem to know the game. You realized that the Orion and SLS need to look useful and the DSG is perfect for that, so it was a political necessity already 5 years ago, although not much talked about in public until this year or last AFAIK. (Though, someone gave me hope by saying that it is a left over from the former administration and won't fly.)
« Last Edit: 10/09/2017 07:23 AM by TakeOff »

Offline QuantumG

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Re: Predictions for 2017
« Reply #57 on: 10/09/2017 07:37 AM »
I couldn't believe it or even understand that it was a real proposal the first times I heard of it, I could never have made that thing up.

Well... it's certainly not as silly as going all the way to Mars to operate rovers on the surface in real time from orbit - yes, this has been suggested, and the idea has been borrowed for the deep space gateway (which makes no sense at all).
Jeff Bezos has billions to spend on rockets and can go at whatever pace he likes! Wow! What pace is he going at? Well... have you heard of Zeno's paradox?

Online A_M_Swallow

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Re: Predictions for 2017
« Reply #58 on: 10/09/2017 08:55 AM »
By the end of December 2017:c. People lobbying to get an EML-1/2 spacestation (so Orion has a destination).
What a great prediction! You foresaw the Deep Space Gateway, the lobbying for which has really has to be taken seriously now.

It is the more impressive since the DSG is so totally meaningless and bad in every respect, that I couldn't believe it or even understand that it was a real proposal the first times I heard of it, I could never have made that thing up. No one has ever suggested a cis-Lunar space station as the first step to interplanetary HSF. But you seem to know the game. You realized that the Orion and SLS need to look useful and the DSG is perfect for that, so it was a political necessity already 5 years ago, although not much talked about in public until this year or last AFAIK. (Though, someone gave me hope by saying that it is a left over from the former administration and won't fly.)

A reusable lunar lander has to be garaged somewhere between missions. Putting a heat shield on a mass critical lunar lander is silly so it cannot return to Earth. The options are low lunar orbit (LLO), Lagrange point or LEO. The Orion has difficulties performing the Earth to LLO return trip but can reach the Lagrange points.

Delta-v Spacestation to lunar surface in km/s
SpacestationSingleReturn
LLO1.873.74
Lagrange2.825.64
LEO5.9311.86
« Last Edit: 10/09/2017 08:58 AM by A_M_Swallow »

Offline TakeOff

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Re: Predictions for 2017
« Reply #59 on: 10/09/2017 10:14 AM »
I couldn't believe it or even understand that it was a real proposal the first times I heard of it, I could never have made that thing up.

Well... it's certainly not as silly as going all the way to Mars to operate rovers on the surface in real time from orbit - yes, this has been suggested, and the idea has been borrowed for the deep space gateway (which makes no sense at all).

At least it would go somewhere and do something. It is a bigger adventure, but there's value for it if doable. Orbiting the Moon gives nothing at all. Especially before there's any activity on the Lunar surface. They might as well sit in a basement pretending to be in space.

I think sending astronauts to Mars' orbit would be the best way to advance HSF now. But the main attraction is of course spending about 10 months at the two moons of Mars, making them the by far most explored objects in the Solar System and preparing future asteroid exploration. Remote controlling a rover would be a smaller bonus. Mars' orbit can be reached pretty much with ISS technology. No need for surface equipment, including a second habitat, atmospheric landing and ascent or fuel mass for deep gravity wells. And it can be done at any conjunction of Mars and Earth, since the crew would spend 26 month in microgravity anyway (The only(?) argument against it for health reasons), so it could be a precursor to a surface mission with short trip times in 2033. If I bet, not 5 but 10 years ahead now, I think a crew to the moons of Mars has a good chance of happening. I think that DSG's irrationality makes it also politically impossible. Like the ARM asteroid mission idea.
« Last Edit: 10/09/2017 10:14 AM by TakeOff »

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