Author Topic: Predictions for 2017  (Read 19517 times)

Offline scienceguy

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Re: Predictions for 2017
« Reply #20 on: 02/27/2012 05:36 PM »
A method for making carbon nanotubes will have been developed by 2017.

At least one form of fusion (polywell, or that one where they crush a can of deuterium or something else) will have demonstrated net power by 2017.
e^(pi)i = -1

Offline aquanaut99

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Re: Predictions for 2017
« Reply #21 on: 02/27/2012 05:58 PM »

A hundred years from now? I already curse us for letting short-sighted politicians stand in the way of our destiny in space. :(


Well maybe we should start cursing SF writers and Hollywood filmmakers for giving us false and unrealistic expectations about our "destiny" instead...
« Last Edit: 02/27/2012 05:59 PM by aquanaut99 »

Offline Ben E

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Re: Predictions for 2017
« Reply #22 on: 02/27/2012 08:18 PM »
Science fiction has an uncanny habit of becoming science fact, eventually.

I don't think many of us are stupid enough to think that Star Wars or Star Trek technologies are just around the corner, but I certainly think bases on the Moon, EML-1/2 stations in deep space, missions to asteroid and voyages to Mars are not outside the realm of possibility.

I seem to remember scientists in the early 1950s arguing that men could never survive in space and that sending satellites into space was folly. Manned Moon landings were promulgated by science fiction filmmakers in the 1930s and 1940s...and it became science fact within a generation.

Offline Xplor

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Re: Predictions for 2017
« Reply #23 on: 02/28/2012 01:19 AM »
Wow, this is one of the most depressing threads I've seen in a while.

What's depressing is the $20B and 8 years that has been spent on Exploration since President Bush announced the nations Vision for Space Exploration.  Most of this on Ares I and Orion.  From the beginning it was clear to many that Constellation was an unaffordable dream (nightmare).  While folks were lured by the promise of ISS cargo delivery at $50m a launch, of modern Saturn V's, of lunar landers the height of 5 story buildings and crewed missions to Mars we let real space access and exploration slip through our fingers. 

Yes, today most people acknowledge that NASA's budget is going to remain at current levels (optimistic), but we are still betting our future on an SLS that even NASA's plans show will only launch once every other year, that a new paradigm exists enabling rockets to launch for a quarter the historic price, of solar electric tugs requiring the power of 3 ISS's or 10 high end com sats, that commercial crew can succeed on an eighth of Orion/SLS's budget.

What will really be depressing is if in 2017 we've made the same progress that we have in the last 8 years!

Online Chris Bergin

Re: Predictions for 2017
« Reply #24 on: 02/28/2012 01:27 AM »
Wow, this is one of the most depressing threads I've seen in a while.

Wow, this is one of the most pointless threads I've seen in a while.

I'd go further, but I'd have to ban myself ;)

Offline savuporo

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Re: Predictions for 2017
« Reply #25 on: 02/28/2012 01:36 AM »
By 2017, all members of NSF will have been created their own subforums, where they can post their opinions in peace and harmony.
Orion - the first and only manned not-too-deep-space craft

Offline Eric Hedman

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Re: Predictions for 2017
« Reply #26 on: 02/28/2012 01:47 AM »
Everyone needs to take a deep breath and take their anti-depressant.  I see progress.  Development of technology always hits snags.  But sometimes it just ends up working.  Their are enough irons in the fire now that I am confident that something good is going to emerge.  Maybe SLS will proceed smoothly and maybe it won't.  There is enough commercial development in the works that something good is likely to emerge.  I don't know if it will be SpaceX, OSC, or someone else out of the blue.  But enough people have the entrepreneurial spirit that built this country.  I have to believe that if we keep trying we will find our way forward.  It may not be on the schedule everyone wants, but I see progress.

As for my prediction for 2017, I haven't a clue.  Those who have accurately predicted the future are in a big part just lucky.  Those who try to make the future have my admiration.  Instead of seeing the glass as empty, go try and fill it.  What do you have to lose?

Offline hkultala

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Re: Predictions for 2017
« Reply #27 on: 02/28/2012 08:10 AM »
What has happened in human space flight after five years, in 2017?

- Is SLS still developed? When is the estimated first launch? Or has it happened
already?

Some "shuttle-derived" launch vehicle using ATK boosters and cryogenic core is still being developed. Name, engines and size of the core may have changed.

It has not flown, Estimated first launch of the simplest version 2018. Development budjet badly lacking for the more advanced/heavier versions.

Quote
- Is Orion flown to space?

unmanned with D4H.

Quote
- Are commercial suborbital flights ongoing? By which company/companies?

* Virgin galactic
* EADS Astrium TBN(not sure who operates this)
* Blue Origin

Quote
- What's the status of manned lunar flyby?

On schedule for 2020, though there is heavy political pressure to drop this.

Quote
- Have commercial crew flights happened? By which companies?

SpaceX with Dragon/Falcon9 several times.
DreamChaser/Atlas V couple of unmanned test flights and one actual manned flight.
CST-100/Atlas V one unmanned test flight, but not yet actually manned flight.

Quote
- Falcon Heavy, how many flights has it flown?

around 6.

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- Stratolaunch? Has it flown or when is the estimated first flight in 2017?

The carrier aircraft is doing test flight and dropping dummy >200 ton payloads from high altitude.

First launch scheduled for 2018.


Other things:

* Atlas V has been human-rated.(can be seen from above)

* ULA has managed to reduce prices of their launches, but they are still considerably more expensive than spacex. They are still the only one sending air force satellites to orbit.

* ULA has increased capabilities of it's rockets with new upper stage

* SpaceX has unveiled a 4-times bigger version of dragon, which is to be launched by falcon heavy, and will be used for space tourism. Maybe 2 configurations; one with more seats(~40) and less comform for travelling to bigelow station, one with less seats(~20) and more space for travelling to LEO without docking anywhere.
Expected to fly in 2019.

* SpaceX has unveiled methane-burning engine, which is expected to give some increase to capabilities of Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy in 2018.

* Skylon is still under development, but has been progressing slowly due not enough funding(mostly because of collapse of european eonomy). They have built an engine and gotten it to work on ground and wind tunnel, but the construction of the prototype of the whole craft is waiting for funds.

* Russians are still launching soyuz and progress capsules to iss with their soyuz rockets.

* Angara is operational and launching satellites to orbit

* Russians are developing NK-33-based version of Sojuz, which will be used for launching their next-gen PPTS capsule which is also in development.

* India has been doing some testing with suborbital version of their spaceplane, but  it looks like a dead end.

* ESA has abandoned it's manned capsule plans

* Ariane 5 ME has just flown it's first flight.

* China has launched Tiangong 3 space station to space.

* Uganda has managed to build a rocket-engined aeroplane, which reaches 300 km/h and 2km altitude. They still call this spacecraft.

Offline rusty

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Re: Predictions for 2017
« Reply #28 on: 02/28/2012 11:13 AM »
Due to the direction of the space program over the last half-decade, I don't consider previous posts to be "pessimistic" (as some have stated), but recognition of spinning wheels, snakeoil and dead ends. If there is a lack of enthusiasm about the future of space flight, a rosy "prediction" will not fix it, only a new direction that includes foresight and purpose.

That said, here's the rosiest 2017 speculation I can offer;

- SpaceX and Orbital have/are successfully delivering cargo to ISS.
- After CCDev (or whatever it's called) funding is terminated in the 2013 budget, all developments cease except for manned-Dragon which is privately funded. DragonLab first  launched private experiments in 2016 and has two on the books every year beginning in 2017.
- Orbital and SpaceDev, with seed funding from DARPA, began work on a half-sized Dreamchaser in 2014 to launch atop Antares. The success of X-37 has them looking at a lower-cost option to test components. Initial test flight (no 2nd stage or LAS) is to take place this year. Orbital/SpaceDev are also marketing it for private research, joyrides and are lobbying ESA for future crew service.
- ISS future remains undecided now that research is moving private and Russia has signed onto China's station. NASA and ESA are consider a replacement for space physiology and agriculture only.

- Lockheed/ATK's Athena Ic and IIc began launching in 2015, largely for countries with developing space programs. In 2016 Chile had the most controversial launch in history when, after a freak kite-surfing accident, Richard Branson was strapped into his prized Morgan and laid to rest in space.
- Aware of DoD/NASA's desire to stop purchasing AtlasV launches in 2015 and move exclusively to DeltaIV, Lockheed/ATK teamed up to finish development on "the stick" with help from NASA. First launch was in 2015 and first crew rotation in 2016. It launches with three, four or five segments - depending on payload - each using a common J-2X upper stage built be Lockheed.
- Orion successfully launched unmanned in 2013 atop DeptaIVH. This was the only launch before Orion moved to "the stick".

- SLS was redesigned and renamed in 2014-'15. It's now called Hyperion and follows the DIRECT v2.0 Heavy configuration - three RS-68B (non-regen, man-rated), 8.4m core, 5segs, J-2X Upper/EDS. Advanced booster program was pushed back to 2021 and the RS-25E program was canceled at the same time. First launch of Hyperion/Orion - an unmanned lunar flyby - is scheduled for 2018.
- This year a SEP tug will be launched atop "the stick", bound for LLO. This is a demonstration flight before work begins on a manned lunar-exploration program. The tugs will deliver fuel/supplies, provide power and station keeping for a temporarily-manned LLO outpost.
- In 2019 Hyperion/Orion are scheduled to deliver the habitat module into LLO, observe automated docking of the tug and get the outpost up and running.
- In 2020 Hyperion/Orion are scheduled to deliver the lunar hopper and take the first lunar sorties of what will become annual missions.

Offline DarkenedOne

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Re: Predictions for 2017
« Reply #29 on: 02/28/2012 07:13 PM »

A hundred years from now? I already curse us for letting short-sighted politicians stand in the way of our destiny in space. :(


Well maybe we should start cursing SF writers and Hollywood filmmakers for giving us false and unrealistic expectations about our "destiny" instead...


It comes down to the impediments we have in spaceflight.  Right now I have not seen much evidence to suggest that the reason we have not been able to return to the moon in 30 years has anything to do with technology or any other physical limitation on what we can do.

Offline luke strawwalker

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Re: Predictions for 2017
« Reply #30 on: 02/29/2012 01:29 PM »
What has happened in human space flight after five years, in 2017?

- Is SLS still developed? When is the estimated first launch? Or has it happened already?

SLS canceled after development becoming bloated with mission creep and NASA top-heavy management causing huge cost overruns and schedule delays, once Congress FINALLY gets it that there's no mission for it without payloads they're unwilling to pay for.  "Something else" takes its place to keep the checks flowing to the space state contractors.


- Is Orion flown to space?

Orion flies unmanned on D4H but then??  In limbo-- too big and expensive for LEO/crew transport, no money forthcoming for anything else...  looking more and more like cancelation bait...


- Are commercial suborbital flights ongoing? By which company/companies?
 

Commercial suborbital hops lose most of their customer base after a highly publicized accident results in one of the vehicles digging a substantial crater in the Mojave desert... Billionaires decide its better to be alive than dead and decide its more fun to take another vacation in the Riveira with lots of bimbos and enjoy being alive and rich.  Suborbital lingers for a few diehards but it's nothing more than a very expensive fad or stunt...


- What's the status of manned lunar flyby?

"Officially" the plan is still for a manned lunar flyby "at some point in the 2020's" and is used for justification for a follow on vehicle after SLS becomes bloated and is canceled.  BUT everybody realizes it's pretty much smoke and mirrors to get more development funding to the contractors, and not likely to happen, especially with NASA's periodically falling and otherwise flat budgets, with inflation eating deeply into that.


- Have commercial crew flights happened? By which companies?

Commercial crew still limping along, but slowly due to anemic funding by NASA and hostility in Congress.  Field is down to ULA CST-100 and SpaceX manned Dragon. 


- Falcon Heavy, how many flights has it flown?

Nearing completion and perhaps will have a test flight in the next year or so... if things hold. 


- Stratolaunch? Has it flown or when is the estimated first flight in 2017?

Stratolaunch abandoned after serious analysis of the design, development, construction, and operational difficulties are analyzed in depth...

If I *really* wanted to be negative--

In 2019, ISS is facing a situation much like Mir-- it's starting to fall apart.  With no shuttle available to launch large replacement parts, stop-gaps and band-aid "work arounds" have been keeping it patched together but its clear its days are numbered.  Europe is in dire straights financially, as is the US, and Russia can barely keep their Soyuz program going in rickety fashion.  US commercial/ European resupply keeping things going, but band-aids on top of band-aids only works so long.  "Research" aboard ISS pretty much seen as an abysmal failure-- a case of "build it and *nobody* came, a situation not helped by lack of transport.  In late 2019 ISS suffers a collision with space junk and is holed, and after a couple desperate missions cobbled together with Soyuz hauling crews up and parts sent up by ATV/HTV/Dragon, ISS repairs fail and the station is abandoned and deorbited. 
  As regional wars and resource problems and economic upheavals continue to sap the abilities of the space powers, and with no "anchor tenant" in ISS to keep things moving, LEO becomes a pretty quiet place.  China suffers the loss of a manned spacecraft in 2020 and due to reordering of their economy in the latest economic implosion rocking the world, the US, China, and Russia quietly abandon manned spaceflight and divert the resources elsewhere to more pressing needs... "officially" a few lingering, underfunded programs remain to keep up appearances, but with no money for deep space exploration and increasing hostility towards "government waste" it's becoming hard to justify to the general populations of Earth.  "Commercial manned spaceflight" dies with the loss of ISS and no forthcoming anchor tenant or gov't funding, and no "real need" demonstrated by industry to fund it. Commercial cargo/launch limps along on satellite launch capabilities... 

JWST cost overruns and mismanagement sours support for big-budget flagship programs, in the increasingly unstable economic conditions and worldwide austerity.  JWST FINALLY gets launched in 2018, but suffers a humiliating failure and never operates, poisoning support for such grandiose and expensive missions.  Smaller, less ambitious missions are all that get approved or funded. 

I guess if I wanted to be optimistic, I'd say:
SLS shifts gears a few times, runs overbudget and slips its schedule due to mission creep and funding cuts, but continues because Congress wants SOMETHING and nothing else is evident.

Orion continues slowly though manned flights won't occur until 2020 at the earliest.  ICPS can send it around the moon, but CPS funding has faltered and development is in limbo, future uncertain.  No payloads being funded so what it's all for, who knows...

ISS being serviced by commercial launches, ATV/HTV, and Soyuz.  Commercial crew coming along, perhaps 2018, but most likely slip to 2019 due to unforeseen difficulties similar to those seen at the beginning of the commercial resupply flights, and inadequate funding. 

ISS "aging gracefully" and minor problems have been fixed, but she's starting to show her age.  Irregardless, it's the only destination for the foreseeable future, so ISS extended to 2028, possibly 2030 (of course it is falling apart by that time just like Mir, but nobody will admit it as voices call for it to be extended to 2035, finally reality hits home when after a long happy life ISS suffers an unrecoverable problem and is deorbited in 2029). 

Russia limping along on a Soyuz replacement, but little funding delays the effort. 

China still flying about once per year to their man-tended space stations. 

US plans still up in the air-- there's plans aplenty but little funding.  Officially the US is going to Mars, in 2050.  Study and research continue, and a few "demonstration" programs are approved and ongoing, but far from an operational system. 

Suborbital flights never more than an expensive fad or stunt.  Dries up by 2020.  Plans for orbital commercial spaceflight still touted, but nothing solid until commercial crew is demonstrated...

IOW, pretty much more of the same...

Later!  OL JR :)
NO plan IS the plan...

"His plan had no goals, no timeline, and no budgetary guidelines. Just maybe's, pretty speeches, and smokescreens."

Offline JohnFornaro

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Re: Predictions for 2017
« Reply #31 on: 02/29/2012 02:23 PM »
Wow, this is one of the most depressing threads I've seen in a while.

Wow, this is one of the most pointless threads I've seen in a while.

I'd go further, but I'd have to ban myself ;)

That's pretty funny...

By 2017, all members of NSF will have been created their own subforums, where they can post their opinions in peace and harmony.

...but this is even funnier!
Sometimes I just flat out don't get it.

Offline mduncan36

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Re: Predictions for 2017
« Reply #32 on: 02/29/2012 02:26 PM »
It's difficult to predict what is going to work six months from now much less five years away. I've made my own five year predictions every year since 1969 and learned that it's a futile exercise at best. Specifics are impossible and only the broadest general educated guess can be made. All that being said you can figure on the following -

Spacex and Orbital are carrying the groceries to the space station. It quickly becomes routine and unexciting. 

SLS is once again canceled/redesigned/repurposed after being exposed as an Obama administration jobs program.

Unmanned exploration limps along with only the minimum required effort to keep a minimum spacecraft design workforce and minor science constituencies happy.

Spacex will already have made a manned test and Boeing won't be far behind. FH may have become the disruptive bright spot in all of US space flight. Without SLS it will become the "make do" for heavy lift proposals that continue to go nowhere. It's really impossible to say anything with more than a guess about anyone else.

NASA's budget will remain roughly the same. It might fall a modest amount but it definitely will not climb.

Oh, and benevolent aliens will introduce us to fusion power and warp drive.

Anything else out there could be no better than a WAG and not a prediction. Ask me again in five years.

I am definitely wrong about some or all of this.

Offline Ben E

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Re: Predictions for 2017
« Reply #33 on: 03/01/2012 01:34 AM »
Forgive me for failing to be a prophet of doom here, but there are other instances from the past where, five years into the future, things actually turned out good:

1956 - scepticism about the chance of putting a satellite into space, much less a man: but within five years it happened

1959 - the first Earth satellites are newly arrived in Earth orbit: within five years, the first robotic mission would venture as far afield as Mars

1964 - seemed doubtful that the US would achieve a manned lunar landing within five years: but it happened

1976 - no Americans in space for a year and the Shuttle mired in technical difficulties: but it flew in 1981

1993 - Space Station Freedom close to cancellation: but was rescoped and First Eelement Launch took place in 1998

2002 - No immediate plans for a Shuttle successor or any manned BEO effort: the Columbia accident changed that and by 2005 the first 'real' plans to venture beyond the Solar System were taking shape.

Things kinda have a habit of working out for the best, eventually!


Online woods170

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Re: Predictions for 2017
« Reply #34 on: 03/01/2012 07:08 AM »
It's difficult to predict what is going to work six months from now much less five years away. I've made my own five year predictions every year since 1969 and learned that it's a futile exercise at best. 

And it is for exactly such a reason that I named this thread pointless.

Online Ben the Space Brit

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Re: Predictions for 2017
« Reply #35 on: 03/01/2012 11:23 AM »
Wow! This is a real crystal ball thread!

I can't say that I have any real expertise but I'll throw some ideas out there about HSF, robotic exploration and commercial.  By 2017, we can expect:

* The design of SLS has been refined several times and it now is so like the DIRECT v3 Jupiter that the two are essentially indistinguishable.  Officials from HEO and NASA PAO tend to get very testy when this is mentioned to them;

* Due to absolute and overwhelming public incomprehension, MPCV has been re-named Orion; NASA PAO reluctantly admits that it was nearly impossible to get anyone outside the agency to use the MPCV name;

* SLS-X, a flight of the modified ET-94 SS-LWT with simulated payload and RSRM-VX four-segs with a dummy fifth segment took place in 2016.  The first no-payload demonstration flight of the production SLS (SLS-Y) is not expected before the beginning of FY2018;

* The current NASA schedule is for SLS-2 to be a one week shake-down flight of Orion in LEO and SLS-3 to be a LLO orbital mission using what is essentially a stripped down Orion Service Module with extra prop tanks as the LOI stage.  Both these flights are expected in mid-to-late 2018;

* At least one CRS operator has suffered a serious LOV that has required a significant stand-down and a prolonged reduced utilisation of the ISS;

* ESA's budget has been slashed and with it subsidies to Arianespace.  Other launch providers have picked up the slack, Land Launch and ILS being big winners.  Seeing where the wind was blowing, ULA have been trying to get their prices down to capture some of this market, a process that has been only partially successful;

* CST-100 flew for the first time in about 2016 and Crewed Dragon shortly thereafter.  The second flight of CST-100 is to a Bigelow module to demonstrate docking;

* A Congressional investigation is underway into NASA's conduct of the Commercial Crew program after Bigelow and SpaceX both made public complaints of stone-walling by certain managers at HEO and claimed that this had significantly impacted in their programs;

* An informal space race is underway between NASA, CSA, Roscosmos and SpaceX as to who will orbit a crew around the Moon on or before the Apollo 8 Hemicenteniary in December 2018;

* The first lunar space probe from the UK (a penetrometer mission) has flown

* It is now known that DoD has 35t to polar/20t to GTO requirements - these are what drove the development of Falcon Heavy and are driving the EELV Phase-1 program (Delta-IVH with Common Centaur, SRBs and cross-tanking)

* Under extreme pressure from Congress and the White House, NASA asked ULA to develop a crew-rated Atlas-V "Mark 2" using AJ-26-500 as a core engine; Congress are increasingly angry at Russian engine powering what remains the best launcher in the US.  In any case, the stocks of RD-180 are almost exhausted, new Russian production is not likely (the lines have long been dismantled) and PWR is pessimistic about being able to build the type in the US.

* Some commentators are predicting that Congress may yet cancel SLS in favour of more funding for the two evolved EELVs in an attempt to win the new race to the Moon.
« Last Edit: 03/01/2012 12:22 PM by Ben the Space Brit »
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Offline Jorge

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Re: Predictions for 2017
« Reply #36 on: 03/01/2012 05:39 PM »

* Due to absolute and overwhelming public incomprehension, MPCV has been re-named Orion; NASA PAO reluctantly admits that it was nearly impossible to get anyone outside the agency to use the MPCV name;

That happened last May.
JRF

Offline Proponent

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Re: Predictions for 2017
« Reply #37 on: 03/02/2012 05:47 AM »
Forgive me for failing to be a prophet of doom here, but there are other instances from the past where, five years into the future, things actually turned out good:

Just to play devil's advocate....

Quote
1956 - scepticism about the chance of putting a satellite into space, much less a man: but within five years it happened

But such skepticism was poorly informed.  Both the USSR and USA had announced their intentions to launch satellites in 1957-58.  Had this the NSF forum existed then, its members surely would have been aware of this and by a large majority not have been among the skeptics.  We would have been cheering these efforts on, just as today we cheer on SLS and commercial launch services.

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1959 - the first Earth satellites are newly arrived in Earth orbit: within five years, the first robotic mission would venture as far afield as Mars

When I look at predictions from that period, I see giddy optimism.  In 1959, for example, both the US Army (under Project Horizon) and the USAF (Project Lunex) were working on plans for sending men to the moon.  The Army, for example, foresaw a first landing in 1966, with the establishment of a permanent base very soon thereafter.  I remember reading as a kid an already-old book written in 1962 that mentioned the Mars opposition in the summer of 1971 as a date to remember, for surely there would be a manned Mars expedition then.  Willy Ley's 1963 book Watchers of the Skies commented that surely a manned craft would be sent to the asteroid Eros during its 1975 approach to Earth.

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1964 - seemed doubtful that the US would achieve a manned lunar landing within five years: but it happened

Did it seem doubtful?  I don't think so.  There were NASA schedule around then showing a landing in 1967 or 1968.  And nobody imagined that lunar exploration would be abandoned after just seven manned lunar missions.

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1976 - no Americans in space for a year and the Shuttle mired in technical difficulties: but it flew in 1981

It flew all right, two or three years late, and missed all of its major objectives by magins ranging from substantial to huge:  payload (10-20% short), flight rate (a factor of several), cost per pound to LEO (a factor of several), safety (orders of magnitude).  It was supposed to be the cheap, all-purpose space truck that would replace most other launch vehicles and open up space.  Nothing like that happened, and just a few years later, the US had to re-activate its stable of expendable launch vehicles at considerable cost.

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1993 - Space Station Freedom close to cancellation: but was rescoped and First Eelement Launch took place in 1998

I'll grant you, that time the optimists were right.

Quote
2002 - No immediate plans for a Shuttle successor or any manned BEO effort: the Columbia accident changed that and by 2005 the first 'real' plans to venture beyond the Solar System were taking shape.

But the plan that emerged was unexecutable with the resources allocated and collapsed under its own weight several billion dollars later.  The current plan, dating from 2010, explicitly calls for the development of SLS and Orion, but Congress has yet to seriously consider using this hardware for anything, much less paying for that.  It's as though in 1961 Congress had decided to build a Saturn V but didn't say it wanted or was willing to pay to go to the moon with it.

Quote
Yeah,
Things kinda have a habit of working out for the best, eventually!

Obviously, my view differs.  If you go back to 1950, you find predictions that man would be in space by 2000.  On that time scale, things have turned out well, but I would argue that since the late 1950s, wild optimism has been the rule.
« Last Edit: 03/02/2012 05:51 AM by Proponent »

Offline baddux

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Re: Predictions for 2017
« Reply #38 on: 03/02/2012 09:42 AM »
Usually people tend to overestimate near future and underestimate far future, but in space exploration in the 50's it was the opposite. Common estimate in "realistic" scifi books was that people go to the Moon in the 70's and in 2000 it would be like in 2001 Space Odyssey with hotels in earth orbit and Moon and colonies on Mars etc.

Offline ArbitraryConstant

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Re: Predictions for 2017
« Reply #39 on: 03/03/2012 07:36 AM »
Keeping in mind the likely outcome is not the same thing as the desirable outcome.

-After a report that describes shocking budget overruns and delays into the 2020s for the first unmanned flight, SLS is canceled.

-Commercial suborbital is a sideshow. Not much activity.

-No manned lunar flyby (no one to pay for it)

-Commercial crew probably not happening. SpaceX maybe talking about an unmanned launch man rated capsule.

-FH demo flight is successful, low flight rate from weak demand (maybe even no other flights). The stretched Falcon 9 sucks away what demand there would have been for GTO launches.

-Stratolaunch runs out of funds and goes away without launching anything.

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