Author Topic: Predictions for 2017  (Read 15586 times)

Offline baddux

  • Full Member
  • *
  • Posts: 100
  • Finland
  • Liked: 2
  • Likes Given: 0
Predictions for 2017
« on: 02/25/2012 05:05 PM »
What has happened in human space flight after five years, in 2017?

- Is SLS still developed? When is the estimated first launch? Or has it happened already?
- Is Orion flown to space?
- Are commercial suborbital flights ongoing? By which company/companies?
- What's the status of manned lunar flyby?
- Have commercial crew flights happened? By which companies?
- Falcon Heavy, how many flights has it flown?
- Stratolaunch? Has it flown or when is the estimated first flight in 2017?

Offline baddux

  • Full Member
  • *
  • Posts: 100
  • Finland
  • Liked: 2
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Predictions for 2017
« Reply #1 on: 02/25/2012 07:28 PM »
I make my own guesses, in 2017...

- SLS is being developed but has gone through modifications and there's two years delay, so now the inaugural flight is set to 2019
- Orion has flown to LEO with Delta IV Heavy (unmanned) in 2016
- First man in suborbit in 2014, tourist flights started in 2015
- Commercial lunar flyby is still five years away (unfortunately)
- Spacex has just started to fly people to the ISS
- FH maiden flight happened in mid 2014, the rocket is available to order but no other flights have happened
- Stratolaunch is estimated to fly in 2019

Offline Nathan

  • Member
  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 701
  • Sydney
  • Liked: 13
  • Likes Given: 2
Re: Predictions for 2017
« Reply #2 on: 02/25/2012 08:41 PM »
I'm going to add the we will be talking about using the Orion plus mission module to perform a Venus mars flyby mission.

No one has suggested doing this. But it would put NASA back on the map.
Mission module would need solar shade or extra radiators.

As for the rest SLS will not be developed , money will be shifted to propellant depot research and launches on commercially available vehicles. Orion moves forward with additional test launches on moderately upgraded delta 4. NASA block buys for Orion launches only.

A commercial company will announce development of a tourist version of its cots/cdev entry. This company may not have won further funding from NASA but was far enough along to secure private funding.

NASA funding will be dropped to $12b and will still be expected to conduct crewed exploration and robotic planetary missions. Planetary missions will be shifted to smaller discovery sized missions, the mars program will focus on astrobiology and crewed system demonstrations such as ispp.
Cubesats will become an important component of earth observation program, with larger missions being cancelled.

NASA will put out a rfp for a lunar habitat for which it will offer minimal development money, rather a 20yr lease as an anchour tenant. Similarly it will put out an rfp for transport to the habitat for which it will offer transport contracts. There will be seed money but successful bidders will need to demonstrate that they can fund development themselves and have a model that includes commercial or other sovereign customers.
Smart proposals will already have development part paid for by involvement in innovative small planetary missions.

Numerous NaSa centers are closed. Discussions begin about Breaking the aeronautics and space components into two separate agencies.


Alternate reality is fun.


Given finite cash, if we want to go to Mars then we should go to Mars.

Offline kch

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 1731
  • Liked: 466
  • Likes Given: 8317
Re: Predictions for 2017
« Reply #3 on: 02/25/2012 08:45 PM »
Well, darn it -- if my TARDIS wasn't in the shop, I'd go find out!  ;)

As it is, I'm going with Yogi Berra on this one ...

Online A_M_Swallow

  • Elite Veteran
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 8148
  • South coast of England
  • Liked: 248
  • Likes Given: 103
Re: Predictions for 2017
« Reply #4 on: 02/25/2012 10:15 PM »
By the end of December 2017:

a. A manned Orion launched on Falcon Heavy.

b. At least one Morpheus lander on the surface of the Moon.

c. People lobbying to get an EML-1/2 spacestation (so Orion has a destination).

Offline grakenverb

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 430
  • New York
  • Liked: 27
  • Likes Given: 25
Re: Predictions for 2017
« Reply #5 on: 02/26/2012 01:20 PM »
SLS cancelled by new administration due to cost overuns and budget issues, new program based on EELV announced but delayed until 2021, then cancelled in 2022 in favor of something NEW! and BETTER!, which is then scrapped in 2024 in favor of something NEWER! and EVEN BETTER!

NASA Human Space Flight is realigned to have two branches which will streamline the process: the Bureau of Planning, and the Bureau of Cancellation.

 ;)








Offline rusty

  • Full Member
  • *
  • Posts: 191
  • Liked: 14
  • Likes Given: 18
Re: Predictions for 2017
« Reply #6 on: 02/26/2012 03:27 PM »
What has happened in human space flight after five years, in 2017?

I can't offer predictions, only baseless speculation;

- SpaceX is regularly delivering cargo to ISS and has successfully launched Dragon Lab for private research. Antares is also fulfilling its COTS contract.
- After NASA cancels CCDev (or whatever it's called) in the 2013 budget Dream Chaser, manned Dragon and Cygnus, and Boeing's capsule end development.
- Around 2015 Space Dev and Orbital begin developing a half-sized Dream Chaser to launch atop Antares. It's to seat three or be used for research flights like Dragon Lab. Marketing is toward more-sensitive experiments, joyrides for the uber-rich and draws interest from ESA for post-ISS crew transport. Initial test flight (no second stage or LAS) is planned for 2018.

- After Orion successfully launches atop DeltaIVH in 2013, and with demand for human-rated AtlasV gone, Boeing/PWR move forward man-rating DeltaIV. Orion/DeltaIVH launches its first crew rotation to ISS in 2016, finally replacing Soyuz and returning US space access.
- AtlasV ceases production around 2015 and ULA dissolves after NASA/DoD select DeltaIV exclusively. Along with man-rating DeltaIV, Boeing finishes development on Medium 6 and 8 booster configurations to cover the high-end of AtlasV.

- SLS (or whatever it's called) was redesigned again in 2014-'15. It's back to human-rated RS-68B (non-regen) with 5-segs (DIRECT v2.0 Heavy; -130 and -23x). With booster development pushed back to the 2020's and RS-25E canceled, the unmanned Lunar flyby has only slipped to 2018. This flight is not a precursor to manned missions, but the first flight test of Neptune (the renamed Ares/Jupiter/SLS), its new J-2X Upper/EDS and Orion high-speed re-entry.
- Beginning in 2020, Neptune will begin hoisting components into LEO for a replacement ISS.
- NASA has targeted the late 2020's for a manned Lunar exploration program. It constitutes a temporarily-manned habitat, fuel/supply depot and lunar hopper in LLO. There are no plans for surface habitats, only sorties and experiments.

Offline aquanaut99

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 1040
  • Liked: 14
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Predictions for 2017
« Reply #7 on: 02/26/2012 07:40 PM »
Here's my baseless speculation about the state of HSF in 2017:

- SpaceX files for bankruptcy after Elon Musk went broke due to the spectacular failure of Tesla motors.
- After further delays and a sucessful manned test in 2016, CST-100 (now renamed Artemis and the sole survivor of CCDev) finally launches the first crew to ISS atop a human-rated Atlas V.
- SLS is still called SLS, despite having been redesigned several times. First launch (unmanned Orion circumlunar) now rescheduled for December 2020.
- Orion has carried out an unmanned test atop a Delta 4H in 2015. Due to the continuing delays on SLS and the uncertain future of Atlas V (Russia is no longer providing engines; see below), consideration is again given to manrating Delta 4H. The USAF is fiercely opposed to this idea and fights it tooth and nail.
- ESA has had to withdraw from the ISS after ATV-5 due to financial difficulties (its budget was slashed by 66% after the EU imploded because of the chain reaction set off by the Greek bankruptcy and the ensuing anarchy).
- Russia has also withdrawn from the ISS due to persident Putin's growing hostility to the USA (as a means of distracting from internal problems). Russia is now helping China set up a rival international space station.
- Russia has retired the Soyuz due to ageing/reliability issues. PPTS is still in the Powerpoint stage; Russian cosmonauts are now hitching rides on the Shenzhou.
- China has flown Tiangongs 1, 2 and 3. The latter is still up in orbit and serves as the nucleus for the future Sino-Russian space station. The pace of Chinese manned launches has increased (due to Russian insistance); they now fly one Shenzhou every 4 months.
- The ISRO launches its first manned spacecraft in 2017. The USA (after pressure from Japan) invites India and Brazil to join/increase their participation in ISS in order to lessen the damage caused by the departure of ESA and Russia.
- Virgin Galactics has started commercial flights in 2014. Business has now plateaued after the first euphoria. The poor state of the global economy and political turbulence means its future is in doubt.
- The other commercial contenders have quietly dropped or shelved their projects.
« Last Edit: 02/26/2012 07:53 PM by aquanaut99 »

Offline Xplor

  • Full Member
  • **
  • Posts: 253
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Predictions for 2017
« Reply #8 on: 02/26/2012 08:57 PM »
NASA's budget will stay steady at ~$18B/year

SLS will continue through annual restructurings before being canceled in 2017 by the new president for lack of a defined mission need

ISS will be extended to at least 2025 with additional nations joining

Soyuz will continue to provide the primary means of ISS crew access
   
Commercial crew development will continue with a down select to a single provider in 2014 with an uncrewed demo launch in 2016 and first crewed launch in 2017.

After skirting with bankruptcy, Orbital cancels Tarus 2 and starts flying Cygnus to ISS on Atlas in 2013, two launches per year.

After a spectacular 2012 public stock offering SpaceX continues to limp along before declaring bankruptcy in 2015

Orion has successful flight test in 2014 with first crewed mission on Delta servicing Hubble in 2016.  Plans are in place for Orion Lagrange and lunar flyby missions starting in 2018.

Small robotic lunar mission in 2016 marks the start of a slow, methodical buildup to crewed lunar missions a decade later.

After continued budget growth and delays JWST is canceled in 2014

NASA continues to pursue SEP flight demonstration

Offline sdsds

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 5476
  • "With peace and hope for all mankind."
  • Seattle
  • Liked: 576
  • Likes Given: 676
Re: Predictions for 2017
« Reply #9 on: 02/26/2012 10:50 PM »
By the end of 2017:

- Both CRS providers will be (or will have been) in successful operation.
- One CRS provider will have experienced a major anomaly, and will be in the midst of (or will have completed) a year-long stand-down.
- Orion will have flown on Delta-IV once without a service module and its first launch with a (US-built) SM will be integrated with SLS either in the VAB or on the pad.  The first SLS launch attempt will be scheduled to take place within six months.
- At least one of the ISS partner vehicles will have suffered an anomaly that again threatened the ability to maintain an ISS crew of six.
- Two commercial crew providers will still be having their development supported by NASA; one other will be attempting to develop commercial crew capability without NASA funding.
- There will have been no spaceflight-related fatalities in the US or in ISS partner countries.  There will have been a space launch related fatality somewhere else in the world.
- Suborbital flights with paying passengers will have been conducted successfully by at least one launch system; the flight rate(s) will still be quite slow.
- The first CRYOTE payload will have finally flown; no other in-space cryogenic propellant handling experiments will have been conducted.
- China will have conducted operations with two visiting vehicles docked to a station at the same time, at least one of them with crew.
- A science mission operated by JPL will have experienced an unanticipated failure.
- JWST will be nearing completion; no other "flagship" science missions will be anywhere close.
- The Astronaut Safety Advisory Panel will have been disbanded.
- USAF will have started the down-select for EELV follow-on systems.
- There will have been no further EELV mission failures.
- Falcon Heavy will have launched once.
- Korea's KSLV (Naro-1) will have made orbit once.
-- sdsds --

Offline SpacexULA

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 1756
  • Liked: 46
  • Likes Given: 73
Re: Predictions for 2017
« Reply #10 on: 02/26/2012 11:39 PM »
Recently reelected President Santorum will yet again cut NASA's budget, they will be down to 9 Billion by 2017.

Orion launched to ISS on a Delta 4 heavy to bring ISS back up to 6 crew.

All CCDev are now on unpaid contracts because of zero tolerance policy instituted in 2013 budget, stating that any delay in CCDev strips the developer of all future funds (funds transferred to Orion/Delta 4 heavy to accelerate it's ability to launch to ISS)

NASA Administrator Griffin releases more power points about our great Mars/Moon Program after 1st SLS launch in 2016.

SpaceX and Oribtal still providing CRS to ISS, both now on schedule.

SpaceX has LAS for Dragon, but banned from ISS service via Congressional mandate due to safety concerns.  SpaceX launches twice a year for Space adventures taking paying customers to orbit for 24 hours.

BA330 is being prepared for it's 1st launch.
No Bucks no Buck Rogers, but at least Flexible path gets you Twiki.

Offline JohnFornaro

  • Not an expert
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 9162
  • Delta-t is the salient metric.
  • Planet Eaarth
    • Design / Program Associates
  • Liked: 610
  • Likes Given: 314
Re: Predictions for 2017
« Reply #11 on: 02/27/2012 12:36 AM »
Heavens above!  I'm just curious as to everyone's predictions for 2012!
Sometimes I just flat out don't get it.

Offline neilh

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2365
  • Pasadena, CA
  • Liked: 43
  • Likes Given: 148
Re: Predictions for 2017
« Reply #12 on: 02/27/2012 12:40 AM »
Wow, this is one of the most depressing threads I've seen in a while.
Someone is wrong on the Internet.
http://xkcd.com/386/

Offline SpacexULA

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 1756
  • Liked: 46
  • Likes Given: 73
Re: Predictions for 2017
« Reply #13 on: 02/27/2012 01:23 AM »
Wow, this is one of the most depressing threads I've seen in a while.

Repeated delays, budgets cut by billions from their 2011 "promised" levels, and a presidential candidate making the term "moon base" as politically unpopular as the term "spread the wealth" will do that to you.

Between that and having any flavor of optimism/fanboyism pounced upon within seconds will make you a little gun-shy.
No Bucks no Buck Rogers, but at least Flexible path gets you Twiki.

Offline aquanaut99

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 1040
  • Liked: 14
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Predictions for 2017
« Reply #14 on: 02/27/2012 04:50 AM »
Recently reelected President Santorum will yet again cut NASA's budget, they will be down to 9 Billion by 2017.

Orion launched to ISS on a Delta 4 heavy to bring ISS back up to 6 crew.

All CCDev are now on unpaid contracts because of zero tolerance policy instituted in 2013 budget, stating that any delay in CCDev strips the developer of all future funds (funds transferred to Orion/Delta 4 heavy to accelerate it's ability to launch to ISS)

NASA Administrator Griffin releases more power points about our great Mars/Moon Program after 1st SLS launch in 2016.



You expect an SLS launch in 2016 when NASA's budget has been reduced to 9 billion??   :o
« Last Edit: 02/27/2012 04:50 AM by aquanaut99 »

Offline Jason1701

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2238
  • Liked: 70
  • Likes Given: 39
Re: Predictions for 2017
« Reply #15 on: 02/27/2012 05:35 AM »
My favorite was the Russians hitching rides on Shenzhou.

Online woods170

  • IRAS fan
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 7157
  • IRAS fan
  • The Netherlands
  • Liked: 2763
  • Likes Given: 825
Re: Predictions for 2017
« Reply #16 on: 02/27/2012 08:23 AM »
Wow, this is one of the most depressing threads I've seen in a while.

Wow, this is one of the most pointless threads I've seen in a while.
« Last Edit: 02/27/2012 08:24 AM by woods170 »

Offline spectre9

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2403
  • Australia
  • Liked: 35
  • Likes Given: 66
Re: Predictions for 2017
« Reply #17 on: 02/27/2012 08:34 AM »
DIV-H will not be man rated.

It's just too big a launcher for LEO space taxi duty.

It could've done a multi launch BLEO mission but NASA doesn't like to do things like that.

Atlas V and Falcon 9 will continue on their merry way. Neither will have failed.

The LEO taxi of choice will be CST-100. Dragon will still continue running cargo but the constant fighting over SpaceX over engineering and NASA trying to exercise oversight in the design will result in it being cut from CCDev.

2 engine common centaur might be in service but I have no idea as not much ever gets said about it.

RS-25E will be on the table, nobody really sure if it will ever be built.

The booster competition will be bitter and bloody with NASA trying to select LRBs  with ATK fighting tooth and nail to not allow it.

BA-330 will be in orbit. Who will be using it? I don't know. The USA needs their own space station technology and Bigelow can provide it. He's not going to sit around forever, he'll take the punt buy an Atlas V and see what happens.

JPL might do something. Not sure what yet, they seem to be pretty much resting on previously launched probes right now. They'll get the planetary society behind them and will fight to revive at least some of the decadal survey recommendations. Opportunity will be dead.

SLS will be on the launch pad around December launching before the new year.

The intelligent and passionate people is this industry ain't gonna roll over and die. That is the one thing you can be sure of. There will be much discussion about EML-1 gateways, moon landers and deep space habs but we will have to see if any development actually starts. If it doesn't of course any kind of plan for exploration isn't going to happen. There's only so much time that can be soaked up before people know something is horribly wrong.

Offline Ben E

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 990
  • Liked: 5
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Predictions for 2017
« Reply #18 on: 02/27/2012 04:36 PM »
Or...

The arrival of New Horizons at Pluto in 2015 has reinvigorated a fickle public with renewed enthusiasm for exploring never-before-seen worlds. Humanity's first glimpse at another planetary body for the first time since Neptune in 1989 has provided a much-needed shot in the arm for 'real' exploration. If pictures from Pluto don't get people excited in wanting to return to the Moon and reaching Mars, then nothing will.

A hundred years from now, our descendants will curse us for letting short-sighted politicians stand in the way of our destiny in space.

Offline Mark S

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2104
  • Dallas, TX
  • Liked: 143
  • Likes Given: 33
Re: Predictions for 2017
« Reply #19 on: 02/27/2012 04:44 PM »
Or...

The arrival of New Horizons at Pluto in 2015 has reinvigorated a fickle public with renewed enthusiasm for exploring never-before-seen worlds. Humanity's first glimpse at another planetary body for the first time since Neptune in 1989 has provided a much-needed shot in the arm for 'real' exploration. If pictures from Pluto don't get people excited in wanting to return to the Moon and reaching Mars, then nothing will.

A hundred years from now, our descendants will curse us for letting short-sighted politicians stand in the way of our destiny in space.

A hundred years from now? I already curse us for letting short-sighted politicians stand in the way of our destiny in space. :(

Unless New Horizons finds a derelict alien spacecraft parked in orbit around Pluto, the myopic public will not be any more excited about another lifeless cratered rock in space they they currently are about Vesta, Mercury, and Saturn and all its moons. Sorry, this really is a depressing thread.

Mark S.

Offline scienceguy

  • Regular
  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 731
  • Lethbridge, Alberta
  • Liked: 61
  • Likes Given: 98
Re: Predictions for 2017
« Reply #20 on: 02/27/2012 05:36 PM »
A method for making carbon nanotubes will have been developed by 2017.

At least one form of fusion (polywell, or that one where they crush a can of deuterium or something else) will have demonstrated net power by 2017.
e^(pi)i = -1

Offline aquanaut99

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 1040
  • Liked: 14
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Predictions for 2017
« Reply #21 on: 02/27/2012 05:58 PM »

A hundred years from now? I already curse us for letting short-sighted politicians stand in the way of our destiny in space. :(


Well maybe we should start cursing SF writers and Hollywood filmmakers for giving us false and unrealistic expectations about our "destiny" instead...
« Last Edit: 02/27/2012 05:59 PM by aquanaut99 »

Offline Ben E

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 990
  • Liked: 5
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Predictions for 2017
« Reply #22 on: 02/27/2012 08:18 PM »
Science fiction has an uncanny habit of becoming science fact, eventually.

I don't think many of us are stupid enough to think that Star Wars or Star Trek technologies are just around the corner, but I certainly think bases on the Moon, EML-1/2 stations in deep space, missions to asteroid and voyages to Mars are not outside the realm of possibility.

I seem to remember scientists in the early 1950s arguing that men could never survive in space and that sending satellites into space was folly. Manned Moon landings were promulgated by science fiction filmmakers in the 1930s and 1940s...and it became science fact within a generation.

Offline Xplor

  • Full Member
  • **
  • Posts: 253
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Predictions for 2017
« Reply #23 on: 02/28/2012 01:19 AM »
Wow, this is one of the most depressing threads I've seen in a while.

What's depressing is the $20B and 8 years that has been spent on Exploration since President Bush announced the nations Vision for Space Exploration.  Most of this on Ares I and Orion.  From the beginning it was clear to many that Constellation was an unaffordable dream (nightmare).  While folks were lured by the promise of ISS cargo delivery at $50m a launch, of modern Saturn V's, of lunar landers the height of 5 story buildings and crewed missions to Mars we let real space access and exploration slip through our fingers. 

Yes, today most people acknowledge that NASA's budget is going to remain at current levels (optimistic), but we are still betting our future on an SLS that even NASA's plans show will only launch once every other year, that a new paradigm exists enabling rockets to launch for a quarter the historic price, of solar electric tugs requiring the power of 3 ISS's or 10 high end com sats, that commercial crew can succeed on an eighth of Orion/SLS's budget.

What will really be depressing is if in 2017 we've made the same progress that we have in the last 8 years!

Online Chris Bergin

Re: Predictions for 2017
« Reply #24 on: 02/28/2012 01:27 AM »
Wow, this is one of the most depressing threads I've seen in a while.

Wow, this is one of the most pointless threads I've seen in a while.

I'd go further, but I'd have to ban myself ;)

Offline savuporo

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 5137
  • Liked: 946
  • Likes Given: 338
Re: Predictions for 2017
« Reply #25 on: 02/28/2012 01:36 AM »
By 2017, all members of NSF will have been created their own subforums, where they can post their opinions in peace and harmony.
Orion - the first and only manned not-too-deep-space craft

Online Eric Hedman

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 763
  • Liked: 184
  • Likes Given: 157
Re: Predictions for 2017
« Reply #26 on: 02/28/2012 01:47 AM »
Everyone needs to take a deep breath and take their anti-depressant.  I see progress.  Development of technology always hits snags.  But sometimes it just ends up working.  Their are enough irons in the fire now that I am confident that something good is going to emerge.  Maybe SLS will proceed smoothly and maybe it won't.  There is enough commercial development in the works that something good is likely to emerge.  I don't know if it will be SpaceX, OSC, or someone else out of the blue.  But enough people have the entrepreneurial spirit that built this country.  I have to believe that if we keep trying we will find our way forward.  It may not be on the schedule everyone wants, but I see progress.

As for my prediction for 2017, I haven't a clue.  Those who have accurately predicted the future are in a big part just lucky.  Those who try to make the future have my admiration.  Instead of seeing the glass as empty, go try and fill it.  What do you have to lose?

Online hkultala

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 607
  • Liked: 156
  • Likes Given: 89
Re: Predictions for 2017
« Reply #27 on: 02/28/2012 08:10 AM »
What has happened in human space flight after five years, in 2017?

- Is SLS still developed? When is the estimated first launch? Or has it happened
already?

Some "shuttle-derived" launch vehicle using ATK boosters and cryogenic core is still being developed. Name, engines and size of the core may have changed.

It has not flown, Estimated first launch of the simplest version 2018. Development budjet badly lacking for the more advanced/heavier versions.

Quote
- Is Orion flown to space?

unmanned with D4H.

Quote
- Are commercial suborbital flights ongoing? By which company/companies?

* Virgin galactic
* EADS Astrium TBN(not sure who operates this)
* Blue Origin

Quote
- What's the status of manned lunar flyby?

On schedule for 2020, though there is heavy political pressure to drop this.

Quote
- Have commercial crew flights happened? By which companies?

SpaceX with Dragon/Falcon9 several times.
DreamChaser/Atlas V couple of unmanned test flights and one actual manned flight.
CST-100/Atlas V one unmanned test flight, but not yet actually manned flight.

Quote
- Falcon Heavy, how many flights has it flown?

around 6.

Quote
- Stratolaunch? Has it flown or when is the estimated first flight in 2017?

The carrier aircraft is doing test flight and dropping dummy >200 ton payloads from high altitude.

First launch scheduled for 2018.


Other things:

* Atlas V has been human-rated.(can be seen from above)

* ULA has managed to reduce prices of their launches, but they are still considerably more expensive than spacex. They are still the only one sending air force satellites to orbit.

* ULA has increased capabilities of it's rockets with new upper stage

* SpaceX has unveiled a 4-times bigger version of dragon, which is to be launched by falcon heavy, and will be used for space tourism. Maybe 2 configurations; one with more seats(~40) and less comform for travelling to bigelow station, one with less seats(~20) and more space for travelling to LEO without docking anywhere.
Expected to fly in 2019.

* SpaceX has unveiled methane-burning engine, which is expected to give some increase to capabilities of Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy in 2018.

* Skylon is still under development, but has been progressing slowly due not enough funding(mostly because of collapse of european eonomy). They have built an engine and gotten it to work on ground and wind tunnel, but the construction of the prototype of the whole craft is waiting for funds.

* Russians are still launching soyuz and progress capsules to iss with their soyuz rockets.

* Angara is operational and launching satellites to orbit

* Russians are developing NK-33-based version of Sojuz, which will be used for launching their next-gen PPTS capsule which is also in development.

* India has been doing some testing with suborbital version of their spaceplane, but  it looks like a dead end.

* ESA has abandoned it's manned capsule plans

* Ariane 5 ME has just flown it's first flight.

* China has launched Tiangong 3 space station to space.

* Uganda has managed to build a rocket-engined aeroplane, which reaches 300 km/h and 2km altitude. They still call this spacecraft.

Offline rusty

  • Full Member
  • *
  • Posts: 191
  • Liked: 14
  • Likes Given: 18
Re: Predictions for 2017
« Reply #28 on: 02/28/2012 11:13 AM »
Due to the direction of the space program over the last half-decade, I don't consider previous posts to be "pessimistic" (as some have stated), but recognition of spinning wheels, snakeoil and dead ends. If there is a lack of enthusiasm about the future of space flight, a rosy "prediction" will not fix it, only a new direction that includes foresight and purpose.

That said, here's the rosiest 2017 speculation I can offer;

- SpaceX and Orbital have/are successfully delivering cargo to ISS.
- After CCDev (or whatever it's called) funding is terminated in the 2013 budget, all developments cease except for manned-Dragon which is privately funded. DragonLab first  launched private experiments in 2016 and has two on the books every year beginning in 2017.
- Orbital and SpaceDev, with seed funding from DARPA, began work on a half-sized Dreamchaser in 2014 to launch atop Antares. The success of X-37 has them looking at a lower-cost option to test components. Initial test flight (no 2nd stage or LAS) is to take place this year. Orbital/SpaceDev are also marketing it for private research, joyrides and are lobbying ESA for future crew service.
- ISS future remains undecided now that research is moving private and Russia has signed onto China's station. NASA and ESA are consider a replacement for space physiology and agriculture only.

- Lockheed/ATK's Athena Ic and IIc began launching in 2015, largely for countries with developing space programs. In 2016 Chile had the most controversial launch in history when, after a freak kite-surfing accident, Richard Branson was strapped into his prized Morgan and laid to rest in space.
- Aware of DoD/NASA's desire to stop purchasing AtlasV launches in 2015 and move exclusively to DeltaIV, Lockheed/ATK teamed up to finish development on "the stick" with help from NASA. First launch was in 2015 and first crew rotation in 2016. It launches with three, four or five segments - depending on payload - each using a common J-2X upper stage built be Lockheed.
- Orion successfully launched unmanned in 2013 atop DeptaIVH. This was the only launch before Orion moved to "the stick".

- SLS was redesigned and renamed in 2014-'15. It's now called Hyperion and follows the DIRECT v2.0 Heavy configuration - three RS-68B (non-regen, man-rated), 8.4m core, 5segs, J-2X Upper/EDS. Advanced booster program was pushed back to 2021 and the RS-25E program was canceled at the same time. First launch of Hyperion/Orion - an unmanned lunar flyby - is scheduled for 2018.
- This year a SEP tug will be launched atop "the stick", bound for LLO. This is a demonstration flight before work begins on a manned lunar-exploration program. The tugs will deliver fuel/supplies, provide power and station keeping for a temporarily-manned LLO outpost.
- In 2019 Hyperion/Orion are scheduled to deliver the habitat module into LLO, observe automated docking of the tug and get the outpost up and running.
- In 2020 Hyperion/Orion are scheduled to deliver the lunar hopper and take the first lunar sorties of what will become annual missions.

Offline DarkenedOne

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 935
  • Liked: 50
  • Likes Given: 6
Re: Predictions for 2017
« Reply #29 on: 02/28/2012 07:13 PM »

A hundred years from now? I already curse us for letting short-sighted politicians stand in the way of our destiny in space. :(


Well maybe we should start cursing SF writers and Hollywood filmmakers for giving us false and unrealistic expectations about our "destiny" instead...


It comes down to the impediments we have in spaceflight.  Right now I have not seen much evidence to suggest that the reason we have not been able to return to the moon in 30 years has anything to do with technology or any other physical limitation on what we can do.

Offline luke strawwalker

  • Regular
  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 1032
  • Liked: 3
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Predictions for 2017
« Reply #30 on: 02/29/2012 01:29 PM »
What has happened in human space flight after five years, in 2017?

- Is SLS still developed? When is the estimated first launch? Or has it happened already?

SLS canceled after development becoming bloated with mission creep and NASA top-heavy management causing huge cost overruns and schedule delays, once Congress FINALLY gets it that there's no mission for it without payloads they're unwilling to pay for.  "Something else" takes its place to keep the checks flowing to the space state contractors.


- Is Orion flown to space?

Orion flies unmanned on D4H but then??  In limbo-- too big and expensive for LEO/crew transport, no money forthcoming for anything else...  looking more and more like cancelation bait...


- Are commercial suborbital flights ongoing? By which company/companies?
 

Commercial suborbital hops lose most of their customer base after a highly publicized accident results in one of the vehicles digging a substantial crater in the Mojave desert... Billionaires decide its better to be alive than dead and decide its more fun to take another vacation in the Riveira with lots of bimbos and enjoy being alive and rich.  Suborbital lingers for a few diehards but it's nothing more than a very expensive fad or stunt...


- What's the status of manned lunar flyby?

"Officially" the plan is still for a manned lunar flyby "at some point in the 2020's" and is used for justification for a follow on vehicle after SLS becomes bloated and is canceled.  BUT everybody realizes it's pretty much smoke and mirrors to get more development funding to the contractors, and not likely to happen, especially with NASA's periodically falling and otherwise flat budgets, with inflation eating deeply into that.


- Have commercial crew flights happened? By which companies?

Commercial crew still limping along, but slowly due to anemic funding by NASA and hostility in Congress.  Field is down to ULA CST-100 and SpaceX manned Dragon. 


- Falcon Heavy, how many flights has it flown?

Nearing completion and perhaps will have a test flight in the next year or so... if things hold. 


- Stratolaunch? Has it flown or when is the estimated first flight in 2017?

Stratolaunch abandoned after serious analysis of the design, development, construction, and operational difficulties are analyzed in depth...

If I *really* wanted to be negative--

In 2019, ISS is facing a situation much like Mir-- it's starting to fall apart.  With no shuttle available to launch large replacement parts, stop-gaps and band-aid "work arounds" have been keeping it patched together but its clear its days are numbered.  Europe is in dire straights financially, as is the US, and Russia can barely keep their Soyuz program going in rickety fashion.  US commercial/ European resupply keeping things going, but band-aids on top of band-aids only works so long.  "Research" aboard ISS pretty much seen as an abysmal failure-- a case of "build it and *nobody* came, a situation not helped by lack of transport.  In late 2019 ISS suffers a collision with space junk and is holed, and after a couple desperate missions cobbled together with Soyuz hauling crews up and parts sent up by ATV/HTV/Dragon, ISS repairs fail and the station is abandoned and deorbited. 
  As regional wars and resource problems and economic upheavals continue to sap the abilities of the space powers, and with no "anchor tenant" in ISS to keep things moving, LEO becomes a pretty quiet place.  China suffers the loss of a manned spacecraft in 2020 and due to reordering of their economy in the latest economic implosion rocking the world, the US, China, and Russia quietly abandon manned spaceflight and divert the resources elsewhere to more pressing needs... "officially" a few lingering, underfunded programs remain to keep up appearances, but with no money for deep space exploration and increasing hostility towards "government waste" it's becoming hard to justify to the general populations of Earth.  "Commercial manned spaceflight" dies with the loss of ISS and no forthcoming anchor tenant or gov't funding, and no "real need" demonstrated by industry to fund it. Commercial cargo/launch limps along on satellite launch capabilities... 

JWST cost overruns and mismanagement sours support for big-budget flagship programs, in the increasingly unstable economic conditions and worldwide austerity.  JWST FINALLY gets launched in 2018, but suffers a humiliating failure and never operates, poisoning support for such grandiose and expensive missions.  Smaller, less ambitious missions are all that get approved or funded. 

I guess if I wanted to be optimistic, I'd say:
SLS shifts gears a few times, runs overbudget and slips its schedule due to mission creep and funding cuts, but continues because Congress wants SOMETHING and nothing else is evident.

Orion continues slowly though manned flights won't occur until 2020 at the earliest.  ICPS can send it around the moon, but CPS funding has faltered and development is in limbo, future uncertain.  No payloads being funded so what it's all for, who knows...

ISS being serviced by commercial launches, ATV/HTV, and Soyuz.  Commercial crew coming along, perhaps 2018, but most likely slip to 2019 due to unforeseen difficulties similar to those seen at the beginning of the commercial resupply flights, and inadequate funding. 

ISS "aging gracefully" and minor problems have been fixed, but she's starting to show her age.  Irregardless, it's the only destination for the foreseeable future, so ISS extended to 2028, possibly 2030 (of course it is falling apart by that time just like Mir, but nobody will admit it as voices call for it to be extended to 2035, finally reality hits home when after a long happy life ISS suffers an unrecoverable problem and is deorbited in 2029). 

Russia limping along on a Soyuz replacement, but little funding delays the effort. 

China still flying about once per year to their man-tended space stations. 

US plans still up in the air-- there's plans aplenty but little funding.  Officially the US is going to Mars, in 2050.  Study and research continue, and a few "demonstration" programs are approved and ongoing, but far from an operational system. 

Suborbital flights never more than an expensive fad or stunt.  Dries up by 2020.  Plans for orbital commercial spaceflight still touted, but nothing solid until commercial crew is demonstrated...

IOW, pretty much more of the same...

Later!  OL JR :)
NO plan IS the plan...

"His plan had no goals, no timeline, and no budgetary guidelines. Just maybe's, pretty speeches, and smokescreens."

Offline JohnFornaro

  • Not an expert
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 9162
  • Delta-t is the salient metric.
  • Planet Eaarth
    • Design / Program Associates
  • Liked: 610
  • Likes Given: 314
Re: Predictions for 2017
« Reply #31 on: 02/29/2012 02:23 PM »
Wow, this is one of the most depressing threads I've seen in a while.

Wow, this is one of the most pointless threads I've seen in a while.

I'd go further, but I'd have to ban myself ;)

That's pretty funny...

By 2017, all members of NSF will have been created their own subforums, where they can post their opinions in peace and harmony.

...but this is even funnier!
Sometimes I just flat out don't get it.

Offline mduncan36

  • Full Member
  • **
  • Posts: 215
  • Liked: 1
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Predictions for 2017
« Reply #32 on: 02/29/2012 02:26 PM »
It's difficult to predict what is going to work six months from now much less five years away. I've made my own five year predictions every year since 1969 and learned that it's a futile exercise at best. Specifics are impossible and only the broadest general educated guess can be made. All that being said you can figure on the following -

Spacex and Orbital are carrying the groceries to the space station. It quickly becomes routine and unexciting. 

SLS is once again canceled/redesigned/repurposed after being exposed as an Obama administration jobs program.

Unmanned exploration limps along with only the minimum required effort to keep a minimum spacecraft design workforce and minor science constituencies happy.

Spacex will already have made a manned test and Boeing won't be far behind. FH may have become the disruptive bright spot in all of US space flight. Without SLS it will become the "make do" for heavy lift proposals that continue to go nowhere. It's really impossible to say anything with more than a guess about anyone else.

NASA's budget will remain roughly the same. It might fall a modest amount but it definitely will not climb.

Oh, and benevolent aliens will introduce us to fusion power and warp drive.

Anything else out there could be no better than a WAG and not a prediction. Ask me again in five years.

I am definitely wrong about some or all of this.

Offline Ben E

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 990
  • Liked: 5
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Predictions for 2017
« Reply #33 on: 03/01/2012 01:34 AM »
Forgive me for failing to be a prophet of doom here, but there are other instances from the past where, five years into the future, things actually turned out good:

1956 - scepticism about the chance of putting a satellite into space, much less a man: but within five years it happened

1959 - the first Earth satellites are newly arrived in Earth orbit: within five years, the first robotic mission would venture as far afield as Mars

1964 - seemed doubtful that the US would achieve a manned lunar landing within five years: but it happened

1976 - no Americans in space for a year and the Shuttle mired in technical difficulties: but it flew in 1981

1993 - Space Station Freedom close to cancellation: but was rescoped and First Eelement Launch took place in 1998

2002 - No immediate plans for a Shuttle successor or any manned BEO effort: the Columbia accident changed that and by 2005 the first 'real' plans to venture beyond the Solar System were taking shape.

Things kinda have a habit of working out for the best, eventually!


Online woods170

  • IRAS fan
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 7157
  • IRAS fan
  • The Netherlands
  • Liked: 2763
  • Likes Given: 825
Re: Predictions for 2017
« Reply #34 on: 03/01/2012 07:08 AM »
It's difficult to predict what is going to work six months from now much less five years away. I've made my own five year predictions every year since 1969 and learned that it's a futile exercise at best. 

And it is for exactly such a reason that I named this thread pointless.

Offline Ben the Space Brit

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 6954
  • A spaceflight fan
  • London, UK
  • Liked: 535
  • Likes Given: 608
Re: Predictions for 2017
« Reply #35 on: 03/01/2012 11:23 AM »
Wow! This is a real crystal ball thread!

I can't say that I have any real expertise but I'll throw some ideas out there about HSF, robotic exploration and commercial.  By 2017, we can expect:

* The design of SLS has been refined several times and it now is so like the DIRECT v3 Jupiter that the two are essentially indistinguishable.  Officials from HEO and NASA PAO tend to get very testy when this is mentioned to them;

* Due to absolute and overwhelming public incomprehension, MPCV has been re-named Orion; NASA PAO reluctantly admits that it was nearly impossible to get anyone outside the agency to use the MPCV name;

* SLS-X, a flight of the modified ET-94 SS-LWT with simulated payload and RSRM-VX four-segs with a dummy fifth segment took place in 2016.  The first no-payload demonstration flight of the production SLS (SLS-Y) is not expected before the beginning of FY2018;

* The current NASA schedule is for SLS-2 to be a one week shake-down flight of Orion in LEO and SLS-3 to be a LLO orbital mission using what is essentially a stripped down Orion Service Module with extra prop tanks as the LOI stage.  Both these flights are expected in mid-to-late 2018;

* At least one CRS operator has suffered a serious LOV that has required a significant stand-down and a prolonged reduced utilisation of the ISS;

* ESA's budget has been slashed and with it subsidies to Arianespace.  Other launch providers have picked up the slack, Land Launch and ILS being big winners.  Seeing where the wind was blowing, ULA have been trying to get their prices down to capture some of this market, a process that has been only partially successful;

* CST-100 flew for the first time in about 2016 and Crewed Dragon shortly thereafter.  The second flight of CST-100 is to a Bigelow module to demonstrate docking;

* A Congressional investigation is underway into NASA's conduct of the Commercial Crew program after Bigelow and SpaceX both made public complaints of stone-walling by certain managers at HEO and claimed that this had significantly impacted in their programs;

* An informal space race is underway between NASA, CSA, Roscosmos and SpaceX as to who will orbit a crew around the Moon on or before the Apollo 8 Hemicenteniary in December 2018;

* The first lunar space probe from the UK (a penetrometer mission) has flown

* It is now known that DoD has 35t to polar/20t to GTO requirements - these are what drove the development of Falcon Heavy and are driving the EELV Phase-1 program (Delta-IVH with Common Centaur, SRBs and cross-tanking)

* Under extreme pressure from Congress and the White House, NASA asked ULA to develop a crew-rated Atlas-V "Mark 2" using AJ-26-500 as a core engine; Congress are increasingly angry at Russian engine powering what remains the best launcher in the US.  In any case, the stocks of RD-180 are almost exhausted, new Russian production is not likely (the lines have long been dismantled) and PWR is pessimistic about being able to build the type in the US.

* Some commentators are predicting that Congress may yet cancel SLS in favour of more funding for the two evolved EELVs in an attempt to win the new race to the Moon.
« Last Edit: 03/01/2012 12:22 PM by Ben the Space Brit »
"Oops! I left the silly thing in reverse!" - Duck Dodgers

~*~*~*~

The Space Shuttle Program - 1981-2011

The time for words has passed; The time has come to put up or shut up!
DON'T PROPAGANDISE, FLY!!!

Offline Jorge

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 6177
  • Liked: 21
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Predictions for 2017
« Reply #36 on: 03/01/2012 05:39 PM »

* Due to absolute and overwhelming public incomprehension, MPCV has been re-named Orion; NASA PAO reluctantly admits that it was nearly impossible to get anyone outside the agency to use the MPCV name;

That happened last May.
JRF

Offline Proponent

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 5104
  • Liked: 768
  • Likes Given: 526
Re: Predictions for 2017
« Reply #37 on: 03/02/2012 05:47 AM »
Forgive me for failing to be a prophet of doom here, but there are other instances from the past where, five years into the future, things actually turned out good:

Just to play devil's advocate....

Quote
1956 - scepticism about the chance of putting a satellite into space, much less a man: but within five years it happened

But such skepticism was poorly informed.  Both the USSR and USA had announced their intentions to launch satellites in 1957-58.  Had this the NSF forum existed then, its members surely would have been aware of this and by a large majority not have been among the skeptics.  We would have been cheering these efforts on, just as today we cheer on SLS and commercial launch services.

Quote
1959 - the first Earth satellites are newly arrived in Earth orbit: within five years, the first robotic mission would venture as far afield as Mars

When I look at predictions from that period, I see giddy optimism.  In 1959, for example, both the US Army (under Project Horizon) and the USAF (Project Lunex) were working on plans for sending men to the moon.  The Army, for example, foresaw a first landing in 1966, with the establishment of a permanent base very soon thereafter.  I remember reading as a kid an already-old book written in 1962 that mentioned the Mars opposition in the summer of 1971 as a date to remember, for surely there would be a manned Mars expedition then.  Willy Ley's 1963 book Watchers of the Skies commented that surely a manned craft would be sent to the asteroid Eros during its 1975 approach to Earth.

Quote
1964 - seemed doubtful that the US would achieve a manned lunar landing within five years: but it happened

Did it seem doubtful?  I don't think so.  There were NASA schedule around then showing a landing in 1967 or 1968.  And nobody imagined that lunar exploration would be abandoned after just seven manned lunar missions.

Quote
1976 - no Americans in space for a year and the Shuttle mired in technical difficulties: but it flew in 1981

It flew all right, two or three years late, and missed all of its major objectives by magins ranging from substantial to huge:  payload (10-20% short), flight rate (a factor of several), cost per pound to LEO (a factor of several), safety (orders of magnitude).  It was supposed to be the cheap, all-purpose space truck that would replace most other launch vehicles and open up space.  Nothing like that happened, and just a few years later, the US had to re-activate its stable of expendable launch vehicles at considerable cost.

Quote
1993 - Space Station Freedom close to cancellation: but was rescoped and First Eelement Launch took place in 1998

I'll grant you, that time the optimists were right.

Quote
2002 - No immediate plans for a Shuttle successor or any manned BEO effort: the Columbia accident changed that and by 2005 the first 'real' plans to venture beyond the Solar System were taking shape.

But the plan that emerged was unexecutable with the resources allocated and collapsed under its own weight several billion dollars later.  The current plan, dating from 2010, explicitly calls for the development of SLS and Orion, but Congress has yet to seriously consider using this hardware for anything, much less paying for that.  It's as though in 1961 Congress had decided to build a Saturn V but didn't say it wanted or was willing to pay to go to the moon with it.

Quote
Yeah,
Things kinda have a habit of working out for the best, eventually!

Obviously, my view differs.  If you go back to 1950, you find predictions that man would be in space by 2000.  On that time scale, things have turned out well, but I would argue that since the late 1950s, wild optimism has been the rule.
« Last Edit: 03/02/2012 05:51 AM by Proponent »

Offline baddux

  • Full Member
  • *
  • Posts: 100
  • Finland
  • Liked: 2
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Predictions for 2017
« Reply #38 on: 03/02/2012 09:42 AM »
Usually people tend to overestimate near future and underestimate far future, but in space exploration in the 50's it was the opposite. Common estimate in "realistic" scifi books was that people go to the Moon in the 70's and in 2000 it would be like in 2001 Space Odyssey with hotels in earth orbit and Moon and colonies on Mars etc.

Offline ArbitraryConstant

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 1676
  • Liked: 384
  • Likes Given: 214
Re: Predictions for 2017
« Reply #39 on: 03/03/2012 07:36 AM »
Keeping in mind the likely outcome is not the same thing as the desirable outcome.

-After a report that describes shocking budget overruns and delays into the 2020s for the first unmanned flight, SLS is canceled.

-Commercial suborbital is a sideshow. Not much activity.

-No manned lunar flyby (no one to pay for it)

-Commercial crew probably not happening. SpaceX maybe talking about an unmanned launch man rated capsule.

-FH demo flight is successful, low flight rate from weak demand (maybe even no other flights). The stretched Falcon 9 sucks away what demand there would have been for GTO launches.

-Stratolaunch runs out of funds and goes away without launching anything.

Offline Avariel

  • Member
  • Full Member
  • *
  • Posts: 139
  • Hastings, UK
    • G7JVN Amateur Radio and AIS Receiving Station in Hastings
  • Liked: 10
  • Likes Given: 96
Re: Predictions for 2017
« Reply #40 on: 03/03/2012 02:48 PM »
Its speculative fiction time again? I think this time I'm going to go for something a bit darker...

In 2017 NASA is in the process of being restructured after the new President announced the cancellation of STS and a five year moratorium on all human spaceflight while a committee assesses the future for American space exploration.

The international partners were, needless to say, somewhat dismayed at the decision to 'temporarily mothball' the International Space Station, but with the war in Iran hotting up resources are needed elsewhere.

Meanwhile the financial scandal surrounding SpaceX continues to make headlines with investors and customers upset over huge hidden losses and broken satellite launch contracts. Many point to the spectacular launch failure of the Falcon Heavy as the day the dream went sour for Elon Musk...

Offline SpacexULA

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 1756
  • Liked: 46
  • Likes Given: 73
Re: Predictions for 2017
« Reply #41 on: 03/03/2012 03:15 PM »
Its speculative fiction time again? I think this time I'm going to go for something a bit darker...

In 2017 NASA is in the process of being restructured after the new President announced the cancellation of STS and a five year moratorium on all human spaceflight while a committee assesses the future for American space exploration.

The international partners were, needless to say, somewhat dismayed at the decision to 'temporarily mothball' the International Space Station, but with the war in Iran hotting up resources are needed elsewhere.

Meanwhile the financial scandal surrounding SpaceX continues to make headlines with investors and customers upset over huge hidden losses and broken satellite launch contracts. Many point to the spectacular launch failure of the Falcon Heavy as the day the dream went sour for Elon Musk...

Wow I think I don't like this game any more
No Bucks no Buck Rogers, but at least Flexible path gets you Twiki.

Offline renclod

  • Extreme Veteran
  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 1663
  • EU.Ro
  • Liked: 8
  • Likes Given: 2
Re: Predictions for 2017
« Reply #42 on: 03/03/2012 03:19 PM »
In 2017 the new president will be happy to support the further progress of the LEO commercial space station project - started during the second term of president Obama, fundend by NASA.

In 2017 SLS would be closer to reach SRR. Almost there.


Offline Avariel

  • Member
  • Full Member
  • *
  • Posts: 139
  • Hastings, UK
    • G7JVN Amateur Radio and AIS Receiving Station in Hastings
  • Liked: 10
  • Likes Given: 96
Re: Predictions for 2017
« Reply #43 on: 03/03/2012 03:20 PM »
Don't worry, just had a bit of gloom to expend. I'm certain it will all be ok. ^_^

Offline kch

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 1731
  • Liked: 466
  • Likes Given: 8317
Re: Predictions for 2017
« Reply #44 on: 03/03/2012 03:35 PM »
Its speculative fiction time again? I think this time I'm going to go for something a bit darker...

In 2017 NASA is in the process of being restructured after the new President announced the cancellation of STS and a five year moratorium on all human spaceflight while a committee assesses the future for American space exploration.

The international partners were, needless to say, somewhat dismayed at the decision to 'temporarily mothball' the International Space Station, but with the war in Iran hotting up resources are needed elsewhere.

Meanwhile the financial scandal surrounding SpaceX continues to make headlines with investors and customers upset over huge hidden losses and broken satellite launch contracts. Many point to the spectacular launch failure of the Falcon Heavy as the day the dream went sour for Elon Musk...

Wow I think I don't like this game any more

Glad you see that it's a game, but such things do cut both ways.  Yoda said it well:

"When you look at the dark side, careful you must be.   For the dark side looks back."

;)

Offline Ben the Space Brit

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 6954
  • A spaceflight fan
  • London, UK
  • Liked: 535
  • Likes Given: 608
Re: Predictions for 2017
« Reply #45 on: 03/03/2012 05:24 PM »
- Stratolaunch runs out of funds and goes away without launching anything.

Highly probable.
"Oops! I left the silly thing in reverse!" - Duck Dodgers

~*~*~*~

The Space Shuttle Program - 1981-2011

The time for words has passed; The time has come to put up or shut up!
DON'T PROPAGANDISE, FLY!!!

Offline ChileVerde

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 1176
  • La frontera
  • Liked: 3
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Predictions for 2017
« Reply #46 on: 03/03/2012 08:36 PM »
Glad you see that it's a game, but such things do cut both ways.  Yoda said it well:

"When you look at the dark side, careful you must be.   For the dark side looks back."

;)

Yoda cribbed from Crazy Fred Nietzsche, but both were absolutely right:

Wer mit Ungeheuern kämpft, mag zusehn,
    daßer nicht dabei zum Ungeheuer wird.
Und wenn du lange in einen Abgrund blickst,
    blickt der Abgrund auch in dich hinein.

He who fights with monsters should take care
  lest he thereby become a monster.
And if you gaze for long into an abyss,
  the abyss gazes also into you.




"I can’t tell you which asteroid, but there will be one in 2025," Bolden asserted.

Offline RyanC

  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 387
  • SA-506 Launch
  • Liked: 37
  • Likes Given: 5
Re: Predictions for 2017
« Reply #47 on: 03/08/2012 07:00 PM »
Meanwhile the financial scandal surrounding SpaceX continues to make headlines with investors and customers upset over huge hidden losses and broken satellite launch contracts. Many point to the spectacular launch failure of the Falcon Heavy as the day the dream went sour for Elon Musk...

As speculation goes, this has a pretty good probability of happening.

It's inevitable that one of the NeuSpace companies has a major anomaly [tm] -- Orbital was able to weather it's anomaly -- putting the OCO at the bottom of the ocean -- because it's a strange mix of an old and new space company, and was able to handle the aftermath of that one.

But do any of the other NeuSpace companies have that kind of internal experience and leadership at the top to manage what happens after said Major Anomaly?

Offline QuantumG

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 8091
  • Australia
  • Liked: 2860
  • Likes Given: 684
Re: Predictions for 2017
« Reply #48 on: 03/08/2012 09:44 PM »
There's a fine line between speculation and slander..
Jeff Bezos has billions to spend on rockets and can go at whatever pace he likes! Wow! What pace is he going at? Well... have you heard of Zeno's paradox?

Online Robotbeat

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 26862
  • Minnesota
  • Liked: 6768
  • Likes Given: 4800
Re: Predictions for 2017
« Reply #49 on: 03/08/2012 09:49 PM »
Meanwhile the financial scandal surrounding SpaceX continues to make headlines with investors and customers upset over huge hidden losses and broken satellite launch contracts. Many point to the spectacular launch failure of the Falcon Heavy as the day the dream went sour for Elon Musk...

As speculation goes, this has a pretty good probability of happening.

It's inevitable that one of the NeuSpace companies has a major anomaly [tm] -- Orbital was able to weather it's anomaly -- putting the OCO at the bottom of the ocean -- because it's a strange mix of an old and new space company, and was able to handle the aftermath of that one.

But do any of the other NeuSpace companies have that kind of internal experience and leadership at the top to manage what happens after said Major Anomaly?
You could say the same thing about any aerospace venture. If you talked the same way about the Shuttle failures, this thread would be quickly locked because of the response, so maybe we can tame down the rhetoric? This is a hard, HARD business. :)

But SpaceX does have the experience and leadership to manage launch failures. They had three quite major failures right at the beginning with Falcon 1, and still survived after all! They haven't had a major failure since then.
Chris  Whoever loves correction loves knowledge, but he who hates reproof is stupid.

To the maximum extent practicable, the Federal Government shall plan missions to accommodate the space transportation services capabilities of United States commercial providers. US law http://goo.gl/YZYNt0

Offline Avariel

  • Member
  • Full Member
  • *
  • Posts: 139
  • Hastings, UK
    • G7JVN Amateur Radio and AIS Receiving Station in Hastings
  • Liked: 10
  • Likes Given: 96
Re: Predictions for 2017
« Reply #50 on: 03/09/2012 11:43 AM »
But SpaceX does have the experience and leadership to manage launch failures. They had three quite major failures right at the beginning with Falcon 1, and still survived after all! They haven't had a major failure since then.

In the 2020 and beyond thread I continued the fictional story with just such an outcome. ^_^

Online DeanG1967

  • Member
  • Full Member
  • *
  • Posts: 141
  • Liked: 14
  • Likes Given: 1
Re: Predictions for 2017
« Reply #51 on: 03/10/2012 01:58 AM »
Wow, this is one of the most depressing threads I've seen in a while.

Wow, this is one of the most pointless threads I've seen in a while.

I'd go further, but I'd have to ban myself ;)

Now that is funny Chris.....thanks for some levity

Offline baddux

  • Full Member
  • *
  • Posts: 100
  • Finland
  • Liked: 2
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Predictions for 2017
« Reply #52 on: 09/28/2017 12:10 PM »
I make my own guesses, in 2017...

- SLS is being developed but has gone through modifications and there's two years delay, so now the inaugural flight is set to 2019
- Orion has flown to LEO with Delta IV Heavy (unmanned) in 2016
- First man in suborbit in 2014, tourist flights started in 2015
- Commercial lunar flyby is still five years away (unfortunately)
- Spacex has just started to fly people to the ISS
- FH maiden flight happened in mid 2014, the rocket is available to order but no other flights have happened
- Stratolaunch is estimated to fly in 2019

Ok, time for judgement:
- SLS: About correct. Don't know any modifications though
- Orion: It flew already in 2014. But no other flights as suspected
- Suborbital: Too optimistic, still nothing
- Lunar flyby: About correct
- Commercial Crew: Too optimistic
- Falcon Heavy: Too optimistic
- Stratolaunch: About correct

So the only thing that has actually happened was Orion test flight

Offline scienceguy

  • Regular
  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 731
  • Lethbridge, Alberta
  • Liked: 61
  • Likes Given: 98
Re: Predictions for 2017
« Reply #53 on: 09/28/2017 01:55 PM »
A method for making carbon nanotubes will have been developed by 2017.

At least one form of fusion (polywell, or that one where they crush a can of deuterium or something else) will have demonstrated net power by 2017.

I was wrong on both counts. O well, doesn't hurt to speculate.
e^(pi)i = -1

Offline scienceguy

  • Regular
  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 731
  • Lethbridge, Alberta
  • Liked: 61
  • Likes Given: 98
Re: Predictions for 2017
« Reply #54 on: 09/28/2017 02:20 PM »
I would like to point out that this thread and its predictions are from 2012.
e^(pi)i = -1

Online AbuSimbel

  • Member
  • Posts: 57
  • Italy
  • Liked: 55
  • Likes Given: 114
Re: Predictions for 2017
« Reply #55 on: 09/29/2017 12:34 PM »
What has happened in human space flight after five years, in 2017?

- Is SLS still developed? When is the estimated first launch? Or has it happened already?

SLS canceled after development becoming bloated with mission creep and NASA top-heavy management causing huge cost overruns and schedule delays, once Congress FINALLY gets it that there's no mission for it without payloads they're unwilling to pay for.  "Something else" takes its place to keep the checks flowing to the space state contractors.


- Is Orion flown to space?

Orion flies unmanned on D4H but then??  In limbo-- too big and expensive for LEO/crew transport, no money forthcoming for anything else...  looking more and more like cancelation bait...


- Are commercial suborbital flights ongoing? By which company/companies?
 

Commercial suborbital hops lose most of their customer base after a highly publicized accident results in one of the vehicles digging a substantial crater in the Mojave desert... Billionaires decide its better to be alive than dead and decide its more fun to take another vacation in the Riveira with lots of bimbos and enjoy being alive and rich.  Suborbital lingers for a few diehards but it's nothing more than a very expensive fad or stunt...


- What's the status of manned lunar flyby?

"Officially" the plan is still for a manned lunar flyby "at some point in the 2020's" and is used for justification for a follow on vehicle after SLS becomes bloated and is canceled.  BUT everybody realizes it's pretty much smoke and mirrors to get more development funding to the contractors, and not likely to happen, especially with NASA's periodically falling and otherwise flat budgets, with inflation eating deeply into that.


- Have commercial crew flights happened? By which companies?

Commercial crew still limping along, but slowly due to anemic funding by NASA and hostility in Congress.  Field is down to ULA CST-100 and SpaceX manned Dragon. 


- Falcon Heavy, how many flights has it flown?

Nearing completion and perhaps will have a test flight in the next year or so... if things hold. 


- Stratolaunch? Has it flown or when is the estimated first flight in 2017?

Stratolaunch abandoned after serious analysis of the design, development, construction, and operational difficulties are analyzed in depth...

If I *really* wanted to be negative--

In 2019, ISS is facing a situation much like Mir-- it's starting to fall apart.  With no shuttle available to launch large replacement parts, stop-gaps and band-aid "work arounds" have been keeping it patched together but its clear its days are numbered.  Europe is in dire straights financially, as is the US, and Russia can barely keep their Soyuz program going in rickety fashion.  US commercial/ European resupply keeping things going, but band-aids on top of band-aids only works so long.  "Research" aboard ISS pretty much seen as an abysmal failure-- a case of "build it and *nobody* came, a situation not helped by lack of transport.  In late 2019 ISS suffers a collision with space junk and is holed, and after a couple desperate missions cobbled together with Soyuz hauling crews up and parts sent up by ATV/HTV/Dragon, ISS repairs fail and the station is abandoned and deorbited. 
  As regional wars and resource problems and economic upheavals continue to sap the abilities of the space powers, and with no "anchor tenant" in ISS to keep things moving, LEO becomes a pretty quiet place.  China suffers the loss of a manned spacecraft in 2020 and due to reordering of their economy in the latest economic implosion rocking the world, the US, China, and Russia quietly abandon manned spaceflight and divert the resources elsewhere to more pressing needs... "officially" a few lingering, underfunded programs remain to keep up appearances, but with no money for deep space exploration and increasing hostility towards "government waste" it's becoming hard to justify to the general populations of Earth.  "Commercial manned spaceflight" dies with the loss of ISS and no forthcoming anchor tenant or gov't funding, and no "real need" demonstrated by industry to fund it. Commercial cargo/launch limps along on satellite launch capabilities... 

JWST cost overruns and mismanagement sours support for big-budget flagship programs, in the increasingly unstable economic conditions and worldwide austerity.  JWST FINALLY gets launched in 2018, but suffers a humiliating failure and never operates, poisoning support for such grandiose and expensive missions.  Smaller, less ambitious missions are all that get approved or funded. 

I guess if I wanted to be optimistic, I'd say:
SLS shifts gears a few times, runs overbudget and slips its schedule due to mission creep and funding cuts, but continues because Congress wants SOMETHING and nothing else is evident.

Orion continues slowly though manned flights won't occur until 2020 at the earliest.  ICPS can send it around the moon, but CPS funding has faltered and development is in limbo, future uncertain.  No payloads being funded so what it's all for, who knows...

ISS being serviced by commercial launches, ATV/HTV, and Soyuz.  Commercial crew coming along, perhaps 2018, but most likely slip to 2019 due to unforeseen difficulties similar to those seen at the beginning of the commercial resupply flights, and inadequate funding. 

ISS "aging gracefully" and minor problems have been fixed, but she's starting to show her age.  Irregardless, it's the only destination for the foreseeable future, so ISS extended to 2028, possibly 2030 (of course it is falling apart by that time just like Mir, but nobody will admit it as voices call for it to be extended to 2035, finally reality hits home when after a long happy life ISS suffers an unrecoverable problem and is deorbited in 2029). 

Russia limping along on a Soyuz replacement, but little funding delays the effort. 

China still flying about once per year to their man-tended space stations. 

US plans still up in the air-- there's plans aplenty but little funding.  Officially the US is going to Mars, in 2050.  Study and research continue, and a few "demonstration" programs are approved and ongoing, but far from an operational system. 

Suborbital flights never more than an expensive fad or stunt.  Dries up by 2020.  Plans for orbital commercial spaceflight still touted, but nothing solid until commercial crew is demonstrated...

IOW, pretty much more of the same...

Later!  OL JR :)
Wow, if you ignore the part about SLS cancellation and the 'if I want to be negative' part it's almost 100% accurate.  The virgin galactic accident, Falcon Heavy 2018, commercial crew 2018, maybe 19, commercial spaceflight touted but not concrete until commercial crew demo, ISS extended to 2028, orion delays ecc...Please do a 2027 follow-on if you're still lurking NSF  ;D
Failure is not only an option, it's the only way to learn.

Offline TakeOff

  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 353
  • Liked: 73
  • Likes Given: 93
Re: Predictions for 2017
« Reply #56 on: 10/09/2017 07:21 AM »
By the end of December 2017:c. People lobbying to get an EML-1/2 spacestation (so Orion has a destination).
What a great prediction! You foresaw the Deep Space Gateway, the lobbying for which has really has to be taken seriously now.

It is the more impressive since the DSG is so totally meaningless and bad in every respect, that I couldn't believe it or even understand that it was a real proposal the first times I heard of it, I could never have made that thing up. No one has ever suggested a cis-Lunar space station as the first step to interplanetary HSF. But you seem to know the game. You realized that the Orion and SLS need to look useful and the DSG is perfect for that, so it was a political necessity already 5 years ago, although not much talked about in public until this year or last AFAIK. (Though, someone gave me hope by saying that it is a left over from the former administration and won't fly.)
« Last Edit: 10/09/2017 07:23 AM by TakeOff »

Offline QuantumG

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 8091
  • Australia
  • Liked: 2860
  • Likes Given: 684
Re: Predictions for 2017
« Reply #57 on: 10/09/2017 07:37 AM »
I couldn't believe it or even understand that it was a real proposal the first times I heard of it, I could never have made that thing up.

Well... it's certainly not as silly as going all the way to Mars to operate rovers on the surface in real time from orbit - yes, this has been suggested, and the idea has been borrowed for the deep space gateway (which makes no sense at all).
Jeff Bezos has billions to spend on rockets and can go at whatever pace he likes! Wow! What pace is he going at? Well... have you heard of Zeno's paradox?

Online A_M_Swallow

  • Elite Veteran
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 8148
  • South coast of England
  • Liked: 248
  • Likes Given: 103
Re: Predictions for 2017
« Reply #58 on: 10/09/2017 08:55 AM »
By the end of December 2017:c. People lobbying to get an EML-1/2 spacestation (so Orion has a destination).
What a great prediction! You foresaw the Deep Space Gateway, the lobbying for which has really has to be taken seriously now.

It is the more impressive since the DSG is so totally meaningless and bad in every respect, that I couldn't believe it or even understand that it was a real proposal the first times I heard of it, I could never have made that thing up. No one has ever suggested a cis-Lunar space station as the first step to interplanetary HSF. But you seem to know the game. You realized that the Orion and SLS need to look useful and the DSG is perfect for that, so it was a political necessity already 5 years ago, although not much talked about in public until this year or last AFAIK. (Though, someone gave me hope by saying that it is a left over from the former administration and won't fly.)

A reusable lunar lander has to be garaged somewhere between missions. Putting a heat shield on a mass critical lunar lander is silly so it cannot return to Earth. The options are low lunar orbit (LLO), Lagrange point or LEO. The Orion has difficulties performing the Earth to LLO return trip but can reach the Lagrange points.

Delta-v Spacestation to lunar surface in km/s
SpacestationSingleReturn
LLO1.873.74
Lagrange2.825.64
LEO5.9311.86
« Last Edit: 10/09/2017 08:58 AM by A_M_Swallow »

Offline TakeOff

  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 353
  • Liked: 73
  • Likes Given: 93
Re: Predictions for 2017
« Reply #59 on: 10/09/2017 10:14 AM »
I couldn't believe it or even understand that it was a real proposal the first times I heard of it, I could never have made that thing up.

Well... it's certainly not as silly as going all the way to Mars to operate rovers on the surface in real time from orbit - yes, this has been suggested, and the idea has been borrowed for the deep space gateway (which makes no sense at all).

At least it would go somewhere and do something. It is a bigger adventure, but there's value for it if doable. Orbiting the Moon gives nothing at all. Especially before there's any activity on the Lunar surface. They might as well sit in a basement pretending to be in space.

I think sending astronauts to Mars' orbit would be the best way to advance HSF now. But the main attraction is of course spending about 10 months at the two moons of Mars, making them the by far most explored objects in the Solar System and preparing future asteroid exploration. Remote controlling a rover would be a smaller bonus. Mars' orbit can be reached pretty much with ISS technology. No need for surface equipment, including a second habitat, atmospheric landing and ascent or fuel mass for deep gravity wells. And it can be done at any conjunction of Mars and Earth, since the crew would spend 26 month in microgravity anyway (The only(?) argument against it for health reasons), so it could be a precursor to a surface mission with short trip times in 2033. If I bet, not 5 but 10 years ahead now, I think a crew to the moons of Mars has a good chance of happening. I think that DSG's irrationality makes it also politically impossible. Like the ARM asteroid mission idea.
« Last Edit: 10/09/2017 10:14 AM by TakeOff »

Offline TakeOff

  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 353
  • Liked: 73
  • Likes Given: 93
Re: Predictions for 2017
« Reply #60 on: 10/09/2017 10:18 AM »
By the end of December 2017:c. People lobbying to get an EML-1/2 spacestation (so Orion has a destination).
What a great prediction! You foresaw the Deep Space Gateway, the lobbying for which has really has to be taken seriously now.

It is the more impressive since the DSG is so totally meaningless and bad in every respect, that I couldn't believe it or even understand that it was a real proposal the first times I heard of it, I could never have made that thing up. No one has ever suggested a cis-Lunar space station as the first step to interplanetary HSF. But you seem to know the game. You realized that the Orion and SLS need to look useful and the DSG is perfect for that, so it was a political necessity already 5 years ago, although not much talked about in public until this year or last AFAIK. (Though, someone gave me hope by saying that it is a left over from the former administration and won't fly.)

A reusable lunar lander has to be garaged somewhere between missions. Putting a heat shield on a mass critical lunar lander is silly so it cannot return to Earth. The options are low lunar orbit (LLO), Lagrange point or LEO. The Orion has difficulties performing the Earth to LLO return trip but can reach the Lagrange points.

Delta-v Spacestation to lunar surface in km/s
SpacestationSingleReturn
LLO1.873.74
Lagrange2.825.64
LEO5.9311.86
Why use a reusable Lunar lander when not using a reusable Earth lander, although they are available already a decade or so before the DSG? And is a Lunar surface mission part of the DSG? How would that work given the costs of launching SLS and Orion to the DSG once a year? The crew can only stay there for a few weeks a year, right? So it cannot replace the ISS. This makes for three big HSF missions for NASA to finance simultaneously: ISS, DSG and a Lunar surface mission. That won't happen.


I thought you predicted the DSG because you're politically savvy.
« Last Edit: 10/09/2017 10:19 AM by TakeOff »

Offline Phil Stooke

  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 339
  • Canada
  • Liked: 191
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Predictions for 2017
« Reply #61 on: 10/09/2017 10:28 AM »
" This makes for three big HSF missions for NASA to finance simultaneously: ISS, DSG and a Lunar surface mission."

ISS - gone!   Lunar Surface Mission - someone else's. 

Problem solved.

Offline Phil Stooke

  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 339
  • Canada
  • Liked: 191
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Predictions for 2017
« Reply #62 on: 10/09/2017 10:35 AM »
"Well... it's certainly not as silly as going all the way to Mars to operate rovers on the surface in real time from orbit - yes, this has been suggested, and the idea has been borrowed for the deep space gateway (which makes no sense at all)."

Apollo 10 - style rehearsal mission spends time at Mars doing that teleoperation, getting some valuable science without doing a human Mars landing on the first mission.  Next mission - go to the surface.  That's not silly, it makes very good sense.  Now do the same at the Moon as one step to human moon landings and as a rehearsal of what will happen at Mars.  It's sense all the way.  Much more sensible than going full up from ISS to human Mars landings in one step.  Now THAT's silly!

Online A_M_Swallow

  • Elite Veteran
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 8148
  • South coast of England
  • Liked: 248
  • Likes Given: 103
Re: Predictions for 2017
« Reply #63 on: 10/09/2017 04:18 PM »
By the end of December 2017:c. People lobbying to get an EML-1/2 spacestation (so Orion has a destination).
What a great prediction! You foresaw the Deep Space Gateway, the lobbying for which has really has to be taken seriously now.

It is the more impressive since the DSG is so totally meaningless and bad in every respect, that I couldn't believe it or even understand that it was a real proposal the first times I heard of it, I could never have made that thing up. No one has ever suggested a cis-Lunar space station as the first step to interplanetary HSF. But you seem to know the game. You realized that the Orion and SLS need to look useful and the DSG is perfect for that, so it was a political necessity already 5 years ago, although not much talked about in public until this year or last AFAIK. (Though, someone gave me hope by saying that it is a left over from the former administration and won't fly.)

A reusable lunar lander has to be garaged somewhere between missions. Putting a heat shield on a mass critical lunar lander is silly so it cannot return to Earth. The options are low lunar orbit (LLO), Lagrange point or LEO. The Orion has difficulties performing the Earth to LLO return trip but can reach the Lagrange points.

Delta-v Spacestation to lunar surface in km/s
SpacestationSingleReturn
LLO1.873.74
Lagrange2.825.64
LEO5.9311.86
Why use a reusable Lunar lander when not using a reusable Earth lander, although they are available already a decade or so before the DSG? And is a Lunar surface mission part of the DSG? How would that work given the costs of launching SLS and Orion to the DSG once a year? The crew can only stay there for a few weeks a year, right? So it cannot replace the ISS. This makes for three big HSF missions for NASA to finance simultaneously: ISS, DSG and a Lunar surface mission. That won't happen.


I thought you predicted the DSG because you're politically savvy.

The Orion was originally to be reusable. The outer casing including the heat shield was going to be replaced each time. The stated reason for dropping reusability was insufficient flights.

The Dragon V2 capsule from SpaceX is designed to be reusable after returning from lunar orbit. The Falcon Heavy may be able to get a Dragon containing cargo to the DSG.

"Politics is the art of the possible" - Otto Von Bismarck.

What NASA can do is politically possible. Within the next 3 years Commercial Crew will have got NASA astronauts back to the ISS and Lunar CATALYST will have landed small robotic rovers on the Moon. Larger lunar landers are in development.

Reusable landers are heavier than expendable landers because the structure has to be thicker to survive the wear and tear. Maximum weight and development time were so critical Apollo spacecraft had to be expendable, high cost be dammed.

On seeing both lunar landers and astronauts the general public will want to know "When will the USA send men back to the Moon?".

Note: Sending a black woman on the third manned landing should make headlines around the world.

In Trump's second term there will be a private sector manned spacestation in Earth orbit. So the ISS will no longer be a prestige project. Manned Mars is too far in the future so if the politicians want to buy international glory something else is needed. NASA is proposing a spacestation in lunar orbit, the Deep Space Gateway (DSG).

As well as a staging post for manned trips to Mars the DSG can be used as a research station and to garage, repair and refuel the reusable lunar lander.

Getting the DSG's habitat module to lunar orbit is about the same cost as getting an expendable lander there. The transport costs of a DSG and a reusable lander are likely to be less than the cost of transporting say 10 expendable landers. NASA is under strong political pressure to watch the pennies these days.

Offline TakeOff

  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 353
  • Liked: 73
  • Likes Given: 93
Re: Predictions for 2017
« Reply #64 on: 10/09/2017 05:32 PM »
Note: Sending a black woman on the third manned landing should make headlines around the world.
Yeah, although it should be an everyday event. It's the little green men I want to see headlines about!

We'll see how this DSG thing works out. It is truly a(n unforeseen) 2017 thing now. I hope it is as good as you hope.

Offline savuporo

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 5137
  • Liked: 946
  • Likes Given: 338
Re: Predictions for 2017
« Reply #65 on: 10/09/2017 07:02 PM »
"Well... it's certainly not as silly as going all the way to Mars to operate rovers on the surface in real time from orbit - yes, this has been suggested, and the idea has been borrowed for the deep space gateway (which makes no sense at all)."

Apollo 10 - style rehearsal mission spends time at Mars doing that teleoperation, getting some valuable science without doing a human Mars landing on the first mission.  Next mission - go to the surface.  That's not silly, it makes very good sense.  Now do the same at the Moon as one step to human moon landings and as a rehearsal of what will happen at Mars.  It's sense all the way.  Much more sensible than going full up from ISS to human Mars landings in one step.  Now THAT's silly!

Once again, operating robotics from lunar orbit is silly. Any investment into relevant technologies is counterproductive, as it inherently puts humans in space ( expensive ) in the loop, and creates poorly scalable systems.
Investments into space robotic systems that can decently deal with 2-second time lag from the moon are much better investments for future. Besides, we have plethora of commercial off the shelf telerobotic technology that works with similar latencies in various environments.
Anyone who cares about actually expanding our economic sphere to lunar surface should probably favor scalable, cost efficient technology investments
 
Orion - the first and only manned not-too-deep-space craft

Offline sanman

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3720
  • Liked: 459
  • Likes Given: 3
Re: Predictions for 2017
« Reply #66 on: 10/10/2017 02:42 AM »
Plus now AI is much more advanced than it used to be, and is in a much better position to meet the demands of semi-autonomy for time-delays in lunar operations.

Offline yokem55

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 430
  • Oregon (Ore-uh-gun dammit)
  • Liked: 234
  • Likes Given: 12
Re: Predictions for 2017
« Reply #67 on: 10/10/2017 05:24 AM »
This thread is a kick to go back and read. I think it is interesting that no one predicted that SpaceX would both fail more (2 RUD's) and succeed more (17 booster recoveries, heading to 20 flights this year), nor that we would still be waiting for Falcon Heavy.

Offline omits

  • Member
  • Posts: 5
  • UK
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Predictions for 2017
« Reply #68 on: 10/14/2017 08:30 AM »
Well, that was all very predictable! Now we need predictions for 2018!  ::)

Online envy887

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2545
  • Liked: 1132
  • Likes Given: 718
Re: Predictions for 2017
« Reply #69 on: 10/14/2017 01:25 PM »
Well, that was all very predictable! Now we need predictions for 2018!  ::)

Well the 2017 predictions were from 2012. So we need 2018 predictions from 2013, not now.
« Last Edit: 10/14/2017 01:25 PM by envy887 »

Online Robotbeat

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 26862
  • Minnesota
  • Liked: 6768
  • Likes Given: 4800
Re: Predictions for 2017
« Reply #70 on: 10/14/2017 02:17 PM »
The 2022 predictions thread will be interesting...
Chris  Whoever loves correction loves knowledge, but he who hates reproof is stupid.

To the maximum extent practicable, the Federal Government shall plan missions to accommodate the space transportation services capabilities of United States commercial providers. US law http://goo.gl/YZYNt0

Tags: