Author Topic: Predictions for 2017  (Read 19503 times)

Offline baddux

  • Full Member
  • *
  • Posts: 101
  • Finland
  • Liked: 3
  • Likes Given: 0
Predictions for 2017
« on: 02/25/2012 05:05 PM »
What has happened in human space flight after five years, in 2017?

- Is SLS still developed? When is the estimated first launch? Or has it happened already?
- Is Orion flown to space?
- Are commercial suborbital flights ongoing? By which company/companies?
- What's the status of manned lunar flyby?
- Have commercial crew flights happened? By which companies?
- Falcon Heavy, how many flights has it flown?
- Stratolaunch? Has it flown or when is the estimated first flight in 2017?

Offline baddux

  • Full Member
  • *
  • Posts: 101
  • Finland
  • Liked: 3
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Predictions for 2017
« Reply #1 on: 02/25/2012 07:28 PM »
I make my own guesses, in 2017...

- SLS is being developed but has gone through modifications and there's two years delay, so now the inaugural flight is set to 2019
- Orion has flown to LEO with Delta IV Heavy (unmanned) in 2016
- First man in suborbit in 2014, tourist flights started in 2015
- Commercial lunar flyby is still five years away (unfortunately)
- Spacex has just started to fly people to the ISS
- FH maiden flight happened in mid 2014, the rocket is available to order but no other flights have happened
- Stratolaunch is estimated to fly in 2019

Offline Nathan

  • Member
  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 701
  • Sydney
  • Liked: 14
  • Likes Given: 2
Re: Predictions for 2017
« Reply #2 on: 02/25/2012 08:41 PM »
I'm going to add the we will be talking about using the Orion plus mission module to perform a Venus mars flyby mission.

No one has suggested doing this. But it would put NASA back on the map.
Mission module would need solar shade or extra radiators.

As for the rest SLS will not be developed , money will be shifted to propellant depot research and launches on commercially available vehicles. Orion moves forward with additional test launches on moderately upgraded delta 4. NASA block buys for Orion launches only.

A commercial company will announce development of a tourist version of its cots/cdev entry. This company may not have won further funding from NASA but was far enough along to secure private funding.

NASA funding will be dropped to $12b and will still be expected to conduct crewed exploration and robotic planetary missions. Planetary missions will be shifted to smaller discovery sized missions, the mars program will focus on astrobiology and crewed system demonstrations such as ispp.
Cubesats will become an important component of earth observation program, with larger missions being cancelled.

NASA will put out a rfp for a lunar habitat for which it will offer minimal development money, rather a 20yr lease as an anchour tenant. Similarly it will put out an rfp for transport to the habitat for which it will offer transport contracts. There will be seed money but successful bidders will need to demonstrate that they can fund development themselves and have a model that includes commercial or other sovereign customers.
Smart proposals will already have development part paid for by involvement in innovative small planetary missions.

Numerous NaSa centers are closed. Discussions begin about Breaking the aeronautics and space components into two separate agencies.


Alternate reality is fun.


Given finite cash, if we want to go to Mars then we should go to Mars.

Offline kch

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 1733
  • Liked: 467
  • Likes Given: 8375
Re: Predictions for 2017
« Reply #3 on: 02/25/2012 08:45 PM »
Well, darn it -- if my TARDIS wasn't in the shop, I'd go find out!  ;)

As it is, I'm going with Yogi Berra on this one ...

Offline A_M_Swallow

  • Elite Veteran
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 8182
  • South coast of England
  • Liked: 258
  • Likes Given: 107
Re: Predictions for 2017
« Reply #4 on: 02/25/2012 10:15 PM »
By the end of December 2017:

a. A manned Orion launched on Falcon Heavy.

b. At least one Morpheus lander on the surface of the Moon.

c. People lobbying to get an EML-1/2 spacestation (so Orion has a destination).

Offline grakenverb

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 430
  • New York
  • Liked: 27
  • Likes Given: 25
Re: Predictions for 2017
« Reply #5 on: 02/26/2012 01:20 PM »
SLS cancelled by new administration due to cost overuns and budget issues, new program based on EELV announced but delayed until 2021, then cancelled in 2022 in favor of something NEW! and BETTER!, which is then scrapped in 2024 in favor of something NEWER! and EVEN BETTER!

NASA Human Space Flight is realigned to have two branches which will streamline the process: the Bureau of Planning, and the Bureau of Cancellation.

 ;)








Offline rusty

  • Full Member
  • *
  • Posts: 191
  • Liked: 14
  • Likes Given: 18
Re: Predictions for 2017
« Reply #6 on: 02/26/2012 03:27 PM »
What has happened in human space flight after five years, in 2017?

I can't offer predictions, only baseless speculation;

- SpaceX is regularly delivering cargo to ISS and has successfully launched Dragon Lab for private research. Antares is also fulfilling its COTS contract.
- After NASA cancels CCDev (or whatever it's called) in the 2013 budget Dream Chaser, manned Dragon and Cygnus, and Boeing's capsule end development.
- Around 2015 Space Dev and Orbital begin developing a half-sized Dream Chaser to launch atop Antares. It's to seat three or be used for research flights like Dragon Lab. Marketing is toward more-sensitive experiments, joyrides for the uber-rich and draws interest from ESA for post-ISS crew transport. Initial test flight (no second stage or LAS) is planned for 2018.

- After Orion successfully launches atop DeltaIVH in 2013, and with demand for human-rated AtlasV gone, Boeing/PWR move forward man-rating DeltaIV. Orion/DeltaIVH launches its first crew rotation to ISS in 2016, finally replacing Soyuz and returning US space access.
- AtlasV ceases production around 2015 and ULA dissolves after NASA/DoD select DeltaIV exclusively. Along with man-rating DeltaIV, Boeing finishes development on Medium 6 and 8 booster configurations to cover the high-end of AtlasV.

- SLS (or whatever it's called) was redesigned again in 2014-'15. It's back to human-rated RS-68B (non-regen) with 5-segs (DIRECT v2.0 Heavy; -130 and -23x). With booster development pushed back to the 2020's and RS-25E canceled, the unmanned Lunar flyby has only slipped to 2018. This flight is not a precursor to manned missions, but the first flight test of Neptune (the renamed Ares/Jupiter/SLS), its new J-2X Upper/EDS and Orion high-speed re-entry.
- Beginning in 2020, Neptune will begin hoisting components into LEO for a replacement ISS.
- NASA has targeted the late 2020's for a manned Lunar exploration program. It constitutes a temporarily-manned habitat, fuel/supply depot and lunar hopper in LLO. There are no plans for surface habitats, only sorties and experiments.

Offline aquanaut99

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 1040
  • Liked: 14
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Predictions for 2017
« Reply #7 on: 02/26/2012 07:40 PM »
Here's my baseless speculation about the state of HSF in 2017:

- SpaceX files for bankruptcy after Elon Musk went broke due to the spectacular failure of Tesla motors.
- After further delays and a sucessful manned test in 2016, CST-100 (now renamed Artemis and the sole survivor of CCDev) finally launches the first crew to ISS atop a human-rated Atlas V.
- SLS is still called SLS, despite having been redesigned several times. First launch (unmanned Orion circumlunar) now rescheduled for December 2020.
- Orion has carried out an unmanned test atop a Delta 4H in 2015. Due to the continuing delays on SLS and the uncertain future of Atlas V (Russia is no longer providing engines; see below), consideration is again given to manrating Delta 4H. The USAF is fiercely opposed to this idea and fights it tooth and nail.
- ESA has had to withdraw from the ISS after ATV-5 due to financial difficulties (its budget was slashed by 66% after the EU imploded because of the chain reaction set off by the Greek bankruptcy and the ensuing anarchy).
- Russia has also withdrawn from the ISS due to persident Putin's growing hostility to the USA (as a means of distracting from internal problems). Russia is now helping China set up a rival international space station.
- Russia has retired the Soyuz due to ageing/reliability issues. PPTS is still in the Powerpoint stage; Russian cosmonauts are now hitching rides on the Shenzhou.
- China has flown Tiangongs 1, 2 and 3. The latter is still up in orbit and serves as the nucleus for the future Sino-Russian space station. The pace of Chinese manned launches has increased (due to Russian insistance); they now fly one Shenzhou every 4 months.
- The ISRO launches its first manned spacecraft in 2017. The USA (after pressure from Japan) invites India and Brazil to join/increase their participation in ISS in order to lessen the damage caused by the departure of ESA and Russia.
- Virgin Galactics has started commercial flights in 2014. Business has now plateaued after the first euphoria. The poor state of the global economy and political turbulence means its future is in doubt.
- The other commercial contenders have quietly dropped or shelved their projects.
« Last Edit: 02/26/2012 07:53 PM by aquanaut99 »

Offline Xplor

  • Full Member
  • **
  • Posts: 253
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Predictions for 2017
« Reply #8 on: 02/26/2012 08:57 PM »
NASA's budget will stay steady at ~$18B/year

SLS will continue through annual restructurings before being canceled in 2017 by the new president for lack of a defined mission need

ISS will be extended to at least 2025 with additional nations joining

Soyuz will continue to provide the primary means of ISS crew access
   
Commercial crew development will continue with a down select to a single provider in 2014 with an uncrewed demo launch in 2016 and first crewed launch in 2017.

After skirting with bankruptcy, Orbital cancels Tarus 2 and starts flying Cygnus to ISS on Atlas in 2013, two launches per year.

After a spectacular 2012 public stock offering SpaceX continues to limp along before declaring bankruptcy in 2015

Orion has successful flight test in 2014 with first crewed mission on Delta servicing Hubble in 2016.  Plans are in place for Orion Lagrange and lunar flyby missions starting in 2018.

Small robotic lunar mission in 2016 marks the start of a slow, methodical buildup to crewed lunar missions a decade later.

After continued budget growth and delays JWST is canceled in 2014

NASA continues to pursue SEP flight demonstration

Offline sdsds

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 5478
  • "With peace and hope for all mankind."
  • Seattle
  • Liked: 577
  • Likes Given: 677
Re: Predictions for 2017
« Reply #9 on: 02/26/2012 10:50 PM »
By the end of 2017:

- Both CRS providers will be (or will have been) in successful operation.
- One CRS provider will have experienced a major anomaly, and will be in the midst of (or will have completed) a year-long stand-down.
- Orion will have flown on Delta-IV once without a service module and its first launch with a (US-built) SM will be integrated with SLS either in the VAB or on the pad.  The first SLS launch attempt will be scheduled to take place within six months.
- At least one of the ISS partner vehicles will have suffered an anomaly that again threatened the ability to maintain an ISS crew of six.
- Two commercial crew providers will still be having their development supported by NASA; one other will be attempting to develop commercial crew capability without NASA funding.
- There will have been no spaceflight-related fatalities in the US or in ISS partner countries.  There will have been a space launch related fatality somewhere else in the world.
- Suborbital flights with paying passengers will have been conducted successfully by at least one launch system; the flight rate(s) will still be quite slow.
- The first CRYOTE payload will have finally flown; no other in-space cryogenic propellant handling experiments will have been conducted.
- China will have conducted operations with two visiting vehicles docked to a station at the same time, at least one of them with crew.
- A science mission operated by JPL will have experienced an unanticipated failure.
- JWST will be nearing completion; no other "flagship" science missions will be anywhere close.
- The Astronaut Safety Advisory Panel will have been disbanded.
- USAF will have started the down-select for EELV follow-on systems.
- There will have been no further EELV mission failures.
- Falcon Heavy will have launched once.
- Korea's KSLV (Naro-1) will have made orbit once.
-- sdsds --

Offline SpacexULA

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 1756
  • Liked: 46
  • Likes Given: 73
Re: Predictions for 2017
« Reply #10 on: 02/26/2012 11:39 PM »
Recently reelected President Santorum will yet again cut NASA's budget, they will be down to 9 Billion by 2017.

Orion launched to ISS on a Delta 4 heavy to bring ISS back up to 6 crew.

All CCDev are now on unpaid contracts because of zero tolerance policy instituted in 2013 budget, stating that any delay in CCDev strips the developer of all future funds (funds transferred to Orion/Delta 4 heavy to accelerate it's ability to launch to ISS)

NASA Administrator Griffin releases more power points about our great Mars/Moon Program after 1st SLS launch in 2016.

SpaceX and Oribtal still providing CRS to ISS, both now on schedule.

SpaceX has LAS for Dragon, but banned from ISS service via Congressional mandate due to safety concerns.  SpaceX launches twice a year for Space adventures taking paying customers to orbit for 24 hours.

BA330 is being prepared for it's 1st launch.
No Bucks no Buck Rogers, but at least Flexible path gets you Twiki.

Offline JohnFornaro

  • Not an expert
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 9162
  • Delta-t is the salient metric.
  • Planet Eaarth
    • Design / Program Associates
  • Liked: 610
  • Likes Given: 314
Re: Predictions for 2017
« Reply #11 on: 02/27/2012 12:36 AM »
Heavens above!  I'm just curious as to everyone's predictions for 2012!
Sometimes I just flat out don't get it.

Offline neilh

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2365
  • Pasadena, CA
  • Liked: 43
  • Likes Given: 148
Re: Predictions for 2017
« Reply #12 on: 02/27/2012 12:40 AM »
Wow, this is one of the most depressing threads I've seen in a while.
Someone is wrong on the Internet.
http://xkcd.com/386/

Offline SpacexULA

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 1756
  • Liked: 46
  • Likes Given: 73
Re: Predictions for 2017
« Reply #13 on: 02/27/2012 01:23 AM »
Wow, this is one of the most depressing threads I've seen in a while.

Repeated delays, budgets cut by billions from their 2011 "promised" levels, and a presidential candidate making the term "moon base" as politically unpopular as the term "spread the wealth" will do that to you.

Between that and having any flavor of optimism/fanboyism pounced upon within seconds will make you a little gun-shy.
No Bucks no Buck Rogers, but at least Flexible path gets you Twiki.

Offline aquanaut99

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 1040
  • Liked: 14
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Predictions for 2017
« Reply #14 on: 02/27/2012 04:50 AM »
Recently reelected President Santorum will yet again cut NASA's budget, they will be down to 9 Billion by 2017.

Orion launched to ISS on a Delta 4 heavy to bring ISS back up to 6 crew.

All CCDev are now on unpaid contracts because of zero tolerance policy instituted in 2013 budget, stating that any delay in CCDev strips the developer of all future funds (funds transferred to Orion/Delta 4 heavy to accelerate it's ability to launch to ISS)

NASA Administrator Griffin releases more power points about our great Mars/Moon Program after 1st SLS launch in 2016.



You expect an SLS launch in 2016 when NASA's budget has been reduced to 9 billion??   :o
« Last Edit: 02/27/2012 04:50 AM by aquanaut99 »

Offline Jason1701

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2238
  • Liked: 70
  • Likes Given: 39
Re: Predictions for 2017
« Reply #15 on: 02/27/2012 05:35 AM »
My favorite was the Russians hitching rides on Shenzhou.

Offline woods170

  • IRAS fan
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 7348
  • IRAS fan
  • The Netherlands
  • Liked: 3079
  • Likes Given: 903
Re: Predictions for 2017
« Reply #16 on: 02/27/2012 08:23 AM »
Wow, this is one of the most depressing threads I've seen in a while.

Wow, this is one of the most pointless threads I've seen in a while.
« Last Edit: 02/27/2012 08:24 AM by woods170 »

Offline spectre9

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2403
  • Australia
  • Liked: 35
  • Likes Given: 66
Re: Predictions for 2017
« Reply #17 on: 02/27/2012 08:34 AM »
DIV-H will not be man rated.

It's just too big a launcher for LEO space taxi duty.

It could've done a multi launch BLEO mission but NASA doesn't like to do things like that.

Atlas V and Falcon 9 will continue on their merry way. Neither will have failed.

The LEO taxi of choice will be CST-100. Dragon will still continue running cargo but the constant fighting over SpaceX over engineering and NASA trying to exercise oversight in the design will result in it being cut from CCDev.

2 engine common centaur might be in service but I have no idea as not much ever gets said about it.

RS-25E will be on the table, nobody really sure if it will ever be built.

The booster competition will be bitter and bloody with NASA trying to select LRBs  with ATK fighting tooth and nail to not allow it.

BA-330 will be in orbit. Who will be using it? I don't know. The USA needs their own space station technology and Bigelow can provide it. He's not going to sit around forever, he'll take the punt buy an Atlas V and see what happens.

JPL might do something. Not sure what yet, they seem to be pretty much resting on previously launched probes right now. They'll get the planetary society behind them and will fight to revive at least some of the decadal survey recommendations. Opportunity will be dead.

SLS will be on the launch pad around December launching before the new year.

The intelligent and passionate people is this industry ain't gonna roll over and die. That is the one thing you can be sure of. There will be much discussion about EML-1 gateways, moon landers and deep space habs but we will have to see if any development actually starts. If it doesn't of course any kind of plan for exploration isn't going to happen. There's only so much time that can be soaked up before people know something is horribly wrong.

Offline Ben E

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 990
  • Liked: 5
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Predictions for 2017
« Reply #18 on: 02/27/2012 04:36 PM »
Or...

The arrival of New Horizons at Pluto in 2015 has reinvigorated a fickle public with renewed enthusiasm for exploring never-before-seen worlds. Humanity's first glimpse at another planetary body for the first time since Neptune in 1989 has provided a much-needed shot in the arm for 'real' exploration. If pictures from Pluto don't get people excited in wanting to return to the Moon and reaching Mars, then nothing will.

A hundred years from now, our descendants will curse us for letting short-sighted politicians stand in the way of our destiny in space.

Online Mark S

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2104
  • Dallas, TX
  • Liked: 143
  • Likes Given: 34
Re: Predictions for 2017
« Reply #19 on: 02/27/2012 04:44 PM »
Or...

The arrival of New Horizons at Pluto in 2015 has reinvigorated a fickle public with renewed enthusiasm for exploring never-before-seen worlds. Humanity's first glimpse at another planetary body for the first time since Neptune in 1989 has provided a much-needed shot in the arm for 'real' exploration. If pictures from Pluto don't get people excited in wanting to return to the Moon and reaching Mars, then nothing will.

A hundred years from now, our descendants will curse us for letting short-sighted politicians stand in the way of our destiny in space.

A hundred years from now? I already curse us for letting short-sighted politicians stand in the way of our destiny in space. :(

Unless New Horizons finds a derelict alien spacecraft parked in orbit around Pluto, the myopic public will not be any more excited about another lifeless cratered rock in space they they currently are about Vesta, Mercury, and Saturn and all its moons. Sorry, this really is a depressing thread.

Mark S.

Tags: