Author Topic: STS-135 Launch Weather Thread  (Read 62314 times)

Offline shuttlefanatic

  • Launches: 61-C, 91, 100, 119, 133, 134, 135. Landings: 26, 28, 32, 36, 41, 40, 44, 42, 58, 64, 66, 67, 76, 92, 100, 124, 126, 128.
  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 458
  • SSP MET 11056d 21h 57m Flight time 1330d 16h 18m
  • San Diego, CA
    • Final thoughts...
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: STS-135 Launch Weather Thread
« Reply #20 on: 07/05/2011 04:32 PM »
Launches have occured when the forecast was 0% go and been scrubbed at 100% go

Well, forecasting has made a few strides since the 80's so odds are extremely remote of that happening these days. Plus NSF didn't have a staff meteorologist back then ;)
Well, shoot.  How much do we have to pay you to issue, say, an 80% go forecast for Friday? :)

Offline psloss

  • Veteran armchair spectator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 16935
  • Liked: 1012
  • Likes Given: 445
Re: STS-135 Launch Weather Thread
« Reply #21 on: 07/05/2011 04:35 PM »
Launches have occured when the forecast was 0% go and been scrubbed at 100% go, so you never know ;)
I've seen references for 90% no-go, and that was with a big caveat...which launch(es) went with 100% no-go?

Offline rdale

  • Assistant to the Chief Meteorologist
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 9892
  • Lansing MI
  • Liked: 236
  • Likes Given: 21
Re: STS-135 Launch Weather Thread
« Reply #22 on: 07/05/2011 04:40 PM »
Well, shoot.  How much do we have to pay you to issue, say, an 80% go forecast for Friday? :)

I can be purchased at a reasonable rate! However I may take advantage of that leftover 20% chance of no-go :)

Offline gfagley

  • Member
  • Posts: 25
  • Pittsfield, MA
    • Home Page
  • Liked: 5
  • Likes Given: 7
Re: STS-135 Launch Weather Thread
« Reply #23 on: 07/05/2011 05:51 PM »
I've seen references for 90% no-go, and that was with a big caveat...which launch(es) went with 100% no-go?

there where launches that had a 100% no-go before..  can't remember the number but I remember that they where prepping for launch and the news crews where wondering whey they where trying to do the countdown knowing it was a 100% no-go but just before the planned launch time the weather cleared up and they launched..  surprised everyone..

Offline jjnodice

  • Member
  • Full Member
  • *
  • Posts: 175
  • Liked: 1
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: STS-135 Launch Weather Thread
« Reply #24 on: 07/05/2011 06:24 PM »
Launches have occured when the forecast was 0% go and been scrubbed at 100% go, so you never know ;)
I've seen references for 90% no-go, and that was with a big caveat...which launch(es) went with 100% no-go?


Probably belongs in another thread, but was 51-I one of those missions?  The one where Engle called out during the roll maneuver "That cloud is black!"

Offline wechose

  • Member
  • Posts: 56
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: STS-135 Launch Weather Thread
« Reply #25 on: 07/05/2011 06:58 PM »
I always enjoy other posters sense of humor on this site!
watched Kathy Winters giving her update today.......... that NASA spirit will never die! 8)
as usual she based the odds based on a "GO" rather than a "NO GO"
Glass is always half full from NASA,never half empty..don't you just love them? :)
Kathy is just one of many faces i have grown to love from the Pressers on NTV,We are losing old friends all the time,not just the Orbiters.
best of luck to all who have made hugh efforts to see 135 launch Friday.

Kathy if You read this i hope You are disgraced by Your forecast, just this once! ;D
"Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it."
George Santayana.

Offline PostScript

  • Member
  • Posts: 2
  • Utah
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: STS-135 Launch Weather Thread
« Reply #26 on: 07/05/2011 07:03 PM »
If there is a scrub what would the launch time change by?  Is it 10 minutes earlier per day?

Offline STS-134

  • Member
  • Posts: 38
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: STS-135 Launch Weather Thread
« Reply #27 on: 07/05/2011 07:11 PM »
If there is a scrub what would the launch time change by?  Is it 10 minutes earlier per day?

I think it's about 23-25 minutes earlier each day.  Technically there are two launch windows per day (think of the station orbiting the Earth...KSC passes underneath this orbit TWICE per day, once with the orbit heading NE and the other with the orbit heading SE)...but NASA won't launch to the SE, which means only one usable launch window per day.  I don't get why they couldn't, in theory, just set up some TAL sites in Africa though, which would allow for an approximately 12 hr turnaround in the event of a scrub.

Offline ChrisGebhardt

  • Assistant Managing Editor
  • Global Moderator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 5446
  • ad astra scientia
  • ~1 AU
  • Liked: 2067
  • Likes Given: 338
Re: STS-135 Launch Weather Thread
« Reply #28 on: 07/05/2011 07:22 PM »
If there is a scrub what would the launch time change by?  Is it 10 minutes earlier per day?

I think it's about 23-25 minutes earlier each day.  Technically there are two launch windows per day (think of the station orbiting the Earth...KSC passes underneath this orbit TWICE per day, once with the orbit heading NE and the other with the orbit heading SE)...but NASA won't launch to the SE, which means only one usable launch window per day.  I don't get why they couldn't, in theory, just set up some TAL sites in Africa though, which would allow for an approximately 12 hr turnaround in the event of a scrub.

A simple and quick search for facts would help here.

It has absolutely nothing to do with TALs to the SE. And for the record, African TALs served a VAST majority of the Shuttle Program.

NASA is not allowed to launch SE of KSC because of that pesky little rule that doesn't let you fly over land and populated areas - which for a SE launch would involve endangering the residents of the Bahamas.
« Last Edit: 07/05/2011 07:23 PM by ChrisGebhardt »

Offline wolfpack

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 666
  • Wake Forest, NC
  • Liked: 87
  • Likes Given: 2
Re: STS-135 Launch Weather Thread
« Reply #29 on: 07/05/2011 08:03 PM »
If there is a scrub what would the launch time change by?  Is it 10 minutes earlier per day?

I think it's about 23-25 minutes earlier each day.  Technically there are two launch windows per day (think of the station orbiting the Earth...KSC passes underneath this orbit TWICE per day, once with the orbit heading NE and the other with the orbit heading SE)...but NASA won't launch to the SE, which means only one usable launch window per day.  I don't get why they couldn't, in theory, just set up some TAL sites in Africa though, which would allow for an approximately 12 hr turnaround in the event of a scrub.

A simple and quick search for facts would help here.

It has absolutely nothing to do with TALs to the SE. And for the record, African TALs served a VAST majority of the Shuttle Program.

NASA is not allowed to launch SE of KSC because of that pesky little rule that doesn't let you fly over land and populated areas - which for a SE launch would involve endangering the residents of the Bahamas.

If you built a shuttle launch facility on Wallops Island you could shoot it that way. But I don't think the rollback from 39A to the Virginia Coast could be done in 12 hours. ;)

Let's just hope the weatherman(lady) is wrong on Friday!

Offline jbirdav8r

  • Member
  • Posts: 22
  • Liked: 10
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: STS-135 Launch Weather Thread
« Reply #30 on: 07/05/2011 09:00 PM »
If there is a scrub what would the launch time change by?  Is it 10 minutes earlier per day?

I think it's about 23-25 minutes earlier each day.  Technically there are two launch windows per day (think of the station orbiting the Earth...KSC passes underneath this orbit TWICE per day, once with the orbit heading NE and the other with the orbit heading SE)...but NASA won't launch to the SE, which means only one usable launch window per day.  I don't get why they couldn't, in theory, just set up some TAL sites in Africa though, which would allow for an approximately 12 hr turnaround in the event of a scrub.

A simple and quick search for facts would help here.

It has absolutely nothing to do with TALs to the SE. And for the record, African TALs served a VAST majority of the Shuttle Program.

NASA is not allowed to launch SE of KSC because of that pesky little rule that doesn't let you fly over land and populated areas - which for a SE launch would involve endangering the residents of the Bahamas.

And a little common sense...astros are not superhuman.  Would you want them to fly a night TAL into Timbuktu when they'd been up for ~20 hours?!

Offline janmb

  • Regular
  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 367
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: STS-135 Launch Weather Thread
« Reply #31 on: 07/05/2011 09:16 PM »
If the launch does scrub, what is more likely, a 24 or 48 hour delay?

As noted earlier, a 48-hour delay is seen as likely since the intense amount of traffic from all the launch viewers will make it difficult for workers to get home and rest before they have to come back.

Keep in mind that this all depends on why the scrub occurs and more importantly how early the scrub is called... Then again, a weather scrub, should there be go for tanking, would be a late decision I guess, making the 48h scenario more likely. But as others have pointed out, that decision will clearly largely depend on the weather prognosis for the weekend, from a Friday perspective - at which point the forecast should at least be somewhat less unreliable than it is 3-4 days out.
Jan M Berg
Software Engineer
Kongsberg Defense and Aerospace
Norway

Offline LendMeYourYears

  • Member
  • Posts: 23
  • AJA
  • Royal Leamington Spa / University of Warwick, England
    • Twitter
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: STS-135 Launch Weather Thread
« Reply #32 on: 07/05/2011 09:21 PM »
Hang on - while everyone's talking about weather from the LCC perspective, what's the take on visibility (cloud base+ceiling) for the millions of people who're going to be around the launch pad? (Rain, wind and temperature may all be dealt with by manning up. :P)

Operational concerns come first obviously, but it'd be slightly less poetic (or more [tragically] poetic for those mourning the last STS) if Atlantis' uphill ride was obscured by clouds...

..which seems to be the case according to the 45th Squadron's cumulus and altocumulus forecasts.

Having said that - there were some RIDICULOUSLY good shots of 134's plume shadow on the clouds...

Offline rdale

  • Assistant to the Chief Meteorologist
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 9892
  • Lansing MI
  • Liked: 236
  • Likes Given: 21
Re: STS-135 Launch Weather Thread
« Reply #33 on: 07/05/2011 09:32 PM »
Hang on - while everyone's talking about weather from the LCC perspective, what's the take on visibility (cloud base+ceiling) for the millions of people who're going to be around the launch pad?

It's impossible to predict cloud locations 3 days away... There is an attempt by USAF & SMG already posted a bit back though if you want.

Offline SkierDude

  • Member
  • Posts: 28
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: STS-135 Launch Weather Thread
« Reply #34 on: 07/05/2011 09:33 PM »
Hi. How long is the window, by the way? If Fri is scrubbed, then Sat/Sun, do they go in to the following week? I read somewhere that they'd have to wait 2 wks due to another rocket launch.

I'm supposed to return Sat, but might change plans at home and try to stay to Sun. Probably a good idea... Maybe make a refundable plane reservation for the next window too.

Thanks.
« Last Edit: 07/05/2011 09:34 PM by SkierDude »

Offline Orbiter

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2185
  • Florida
  • Liked: 386
  • Likes Given: 911
Re: STS-135 Launch Weather Thread
« Reply #35 on: 07/05/2011 09:46 PM »
If there's a scrub on Sunday, they'll stand down to the 16th of July due to conflict with a Delta IV rocket.

Orbiter
Attended space missions: STS-114, STS-124, STS-128, STS-135, Atlas V "Curiosity", Delta IV Heavy NROL-15, Atlas V MUOS-2, Delta IV Heavy NROL-37, SpaceX CRS-9, SpaceX JCSAT-16, Atlas V GOES-R, SpaceX SES-11.

Offline LendMeYourYears

  • Member
  • Posts: 23
  • AJA
  • Royal Leamington Spa / University of Warwick, England
    • Twitter
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: STS-135 Launch Weather Thread
« Reply #36 on: 07/05/2011 09:50 PM »
Hang on - while everyone's talking about weather from the LCC perspective, what's the take on visibility (cloud base+ceiling) for the millions of people who're going to be around the launch pad?

It's impossible to predict cloud locations 3 days away... There is an attempt by USAF & SMG already posted a bit back though if you want.

Yup - any word on haze? I read Visibility of 7 miles...which just puts causeway near the edge...

Offline STS-134

  • Member
  • Posts: 38
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: STS-135 Launch Weather Thread
« Reply #37 on: 07/05/2011 10:40 PM »
If there is a scrub what would the launch time change by?  Is it 10 minutes earlier per day?

I think it's about 23-25 minutes earlier each day.  Technically there are two launch windows per day (think of the station orbiting the Earth...KSC passes underneath this orbit TWICE per day, once with the orbit heading NE and the other with the orbit heading SE)...but NASA won't launch to the SE, which means only one usable launch window per day.  I don't get why they couldn't, in theory, just set up some TAL sites in Africa though, which would allow for an approximately 12 hr turnaround in the event of a scrub.

A simple and quick search for facts would help here.

It has absolutely nothing to do with TALs to the SE. And for the record, African TALs served a VAST majority of the Shuttle Program.

NASA is not allowed to launch SE of KSC because of that pesky little rule that doesn't let you fly over land and populated areas - which for a SE launch would involve endangering the residents of the Bahamas.

What are they concerned about, an SRB falling through someone's roof in Freeport?  (Do the SRBs even have enough fuel to reach Freeport?).  Freeport is about 187mi/300km downrange of TTS.  Supposedly SRB impact normally occurs about 226km downrange, which gives an almost 75km cushion to make sure that the SRBs don't go falling through someone's roof.

Offline rdale

  • Assistant to the Chief Meteorologist
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 9892
  • Lansing MI
  • Liked: 236
  • Likes Given: 21
Re: STS-135 Launch Weather Thread
« Reply #38 on: 07/05/2011 10:45 PM »
Launch times, southeast trajectories, and TALs are all covered in Q&A and other threads. This is weather only, which doesn't care.

Offline TJL

  • Extreme Veteran
  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 1139
  • Liked: 6
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: STS-135 Launch Weather Thread
« Reply #39 on: 07/05/2011 11:35 PM »
Speaking of poor visibility, does anyone remember the launch conditions for the very first ISS crew on Soyuz TM 31?

The fog was so thick, the stack and exhaust was visible for no more than 5 seconds. With the exception of Apollo 12, and STS 51-I, that must have been the shortest view of a manned launch.

Tags: