Author Topic: How Often can SLS launch?  (Read 29039 times)

Offline Torten

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How Often can SLS launch?
« on: 05/21/2016 10:08 am »
How often can the SLS system launch with just one launchpad? I believe the general idea is that it will only launch once a year, but could it be (With the nessacary funding!) moved up to launch twice a year, or even three times a year?

Offline vaporcobra

Re: How Often can SLS launch?
« Reply #1 on: 05/21/2016 10:44 am »
How often can the SLS system launch with just one launchpad? I believe the general idea is that it will only launch once a year, but could it be (With the nessacary funding!) moved up to launch twice a year, or even three times a year?

It is vastly implausible that SLS will achieve anything close to 1 launch a year even right now, which is probably the most optimistic time for SLS. The types of spacecraft/missions that would be ever be flown on a $1B+ launch vehicle basically do not exist at the moment. It would be fair to say that between now and 2030, there are maybe two missions even being initially considered that would require SLS's capabilities, those being the Europa Clipper and the vaguely considered Europa lander that would theoretically follow.

With anything less than an unprecedented budget increase, it is truly difficult to imagine how SLS is going to legitimately be used beyond EM-2 and the Europa missions. It would of course be invaluable for something like a Neptune/Uranus orbiter in a reasonable time frame, but that - let alone anything related to serious Mars exploration - is barely even into conceptual studies and probably decades away from actually happening.

It isn't entirely clear that you implied this, but the SLS launch rate has absolutely nothing to do with launchpad readiness. The pad will be entirely exclusive to SLS and could probably deal with 4+ launches a year at the least if NASA had the means and SLS the missions/payloads.

Offline RonM

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Re: How Often can SLS launch?
« Reply #2 on: 05/21/2016 12:12 pm »
Pad 39B was turned into a clean pad for use by multiple customers. Of course, SLS will have priority. AFAIK, only Orbital ATK has shown interest in using it.

Even with a big budget increase, the limit would be SLS production. Something like two per year. I don't see that happening anytime soon. Even if Congress gave NASA the funding for Mars missions the time frame is mid 2030s.

Offline MATTBLAK

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Re: How Often can SLS launch?
« Reply #3 on: 05/21/2016 12:18 pm »
Best case scenario? With funding and a decent workforce level and one launchpad - 2 with 3 being a real stretch. With two launchpads; 4 or 5 but no more than that. Look to average Shuttle flight rates to get a healthy rule of thumb; though again - funding. And it has to be said - if Falcon Heavy and Vulcan-ACES had two launchpads each, it would be a serious bet that their combined flight rate would kick SLS's butt... :(
« Last Edit: 05/21/2016 12:20 pm by MATTBLAK »
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Online AnalogMan

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Re: How Often can SLS launch?
« Reply #4 on: 05/21/2016 12:25 pm »
How often can the SLS system launch with just one launchpad? I believe the general idea is that it will only launch once a year, but could it be (With the nessacary funding!) moved up to launch twice a year, or even three times a year?

From Exploration Systems Development (ESD) Requirements document dated Aug 2014:

"R-15: Launch Rate. The Architecture shall support one launch every two years at the Tactical capability level and up to three launches per year at the Strategic capability level.

Rationale: The CDF Strategic DRMs include 1 to 3 launches per mission. The maximum rate for any given year is 3 launches constrained by ground operations infrastructure and processing resources. Spacing between launches is assumed to be evenly spaced, with 120 days between launches. The maximum rate of 3 launches per year is not considered to be a sustainable rate and is not to be construed as a production capability. During these periods, nominal flight activity will be suspended to enable this surge capability. Storage of assets may be required for a 3 launch DRM."

Offline the_other_Doug

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Re: How Often can SLS launch?
« Reply #5 on: 05/21/2016 04:55 pm »
And recall that the Saturn V and LC-39 were both designed for launch every 60 days or so, thus the two pads (and initial plans for a third).  In fact, they only used 39B for one single launch in mainline Apollo, that being for Apollo 10.  The fastest turnaround time for a Saturn V at a given launch pad was between Apollos 8 and 9.  They both launched out of 39A, and launched roughly nine weeks apart.  Apollo 10 was rolled out to 39B right around the time of Apollo 9, and it is well-known that Apollo 11 was rolled out to 39A while Apollo 10 was still in flight.

After Apollo 11, the shortest time between two Saturn V launches was four months, which left plenty of time to clean up 39A and get it ready for the next launch.  As I've pointed out before, except for the Big Push of the first half of 1969, NASA never launched Saturn V's at a rate higher than two a year, which is the highest launch rate anyone really postulates for SLS.

If you make the assumption that SLS will be roughly equivalent in terms of stacking, prep, launch and pad clean-up to the Saturn V, there will be no problems at all in supporting a flight rate of up to three a year using just 39B.  The limiting factor on SLS launch rate is the production rate for the cores, which is now set to support between one and two launches a year.

SLS could be launched at a rate of four (to maybe up to six, with a lot of pushing) a year, in terms of the pad infrastructure, I think, but that would require spending up to a decade manufacturing all of the SLS cores, SRMs, upper stages, etc., and putting them in storage to await the high-rate period.  So, if you developed a DRA for Mars that required, say, eight SLS launches in two years, it could likely be done -- but you'd have to start making the SLS stages, as fast as your manufacturing facilities allow, right now, and couldn't start launching them for another decade or so...
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Offline Torten

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Re: How Often can SLS launch?
« Reply #6 on: 05/21/2016 07:49 pm »
And recall that the Saturn V and LC-39 were both designed for launch every 60 days or so, thus the two pads (and initial plans for a third).  In fact, they only used 39B for one single launch in mainline Apollo, that being for Apollo 10.  The fastest turnaround time for a Saturn V at a given launch pad was between Apollos 8 and 9.  They both launched out of 39A, and launched roughly nine weeks apart.  Apollo 10 was rolled out to 39B right around the time of Apollo 9, and it is well-known that Apollo 11 was rolled out to 39A while Apollo 10 was still in flight.

After Apollo 11, the shortest time between two Saturn V launches was four months, which left plenty of time to clean up 39A and get it ready for the next launch.  As I've pointed out before, except for the Big Push of the first half of 1969, NASA never launched Saturn V's at a rate higher than two a year, which is the highest launch rate anyone really postulates for SLS.

If you make the assumption that SLS will be roughly equivalent in terms of stacking, prep, launch and pad clean-up to the Saturn V, there will be no problems at all in supporting a flight rate of up to three a year using just 39B.  The limiting factor on SLS launch rate is the production rate for the cores, which is now set to support between one and two launches a year.

SLS could be launched at a rate of four (to maybe up to six, with a lot of pushing) a year, in terms of the pad infrastructure, I think, but that would require spending up to a decade manufacturing all of the SLS cores, SRMs, upper stages, etc., and putting them in storage to await the high-rate period.  So, if you developed a DRA for Mars that required, say, eight SLS launches in two years, it could likely be done -- but you'd have to start making the SLS stages, as fast as your manufacturing facilities allow, right now, and couldn't start launching them for another decade or so...
So two is the most you can get without having to wait a few years to build a sulplus... that seems sensable. So that would allow for a Mission every year to the moon (Not out the question if NASA was to make a Reusable lander) plus an extra booster for Europa missions, or assembling a NEO mission if congress was to fund it. And two boosters 60 day's apart would meet almost any obligation that NASA needs to meet.

Online Coastal Ron

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Re: How Often can SLS launch?
« Reply #7 on: 05/21/2016 10:16 pm »
So two is the most you can get without having to wait a few years to build a sulplus... that seems sensable.

The real answer you should take from the_other_Doug's post is that for using the SLS launching it is not the constraint, building it is.  From a SpaceNews interview with the outgoing SLS Program Manager:

"Boeing has Michoud set up to stamp out enough stages for one SLS a year — two at most with the factory’s current manufacturing capabilities, and then only if NASA pours more money and personnel into the facility."

Quote
So that would allow for a Mission every year to the moon (Not out the question if NASA was to make a Reusable lander) plus an extra booster for Europa missions, or assembling a NEO mission if congress was to fund it.

What will determine whether the SLS truly reaches any sort of launch cadence is whether there is enough "demand" for it's unique services.  And "demand" means funding from Congress to build a continuous stream of SLS-only payloads.

None of those have been fully funded by Congress yet, and if you look at NASA's history of building even small complex payloads, the SLS will be sitting around for a number of years waiting for something to do.  For instance the 3.8mT Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) took 7 years from proposal to launch, and the Orion spacecraft will have taken 18 years by the time it flies with humans.

The SLS is supposed to be operational around 2023, which is just 7 years away - see the challenge?
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Offline redliox

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Re: How Often can SLS launch?
« Reply #8 on: 05/21/2016 10:48 pm »
What will determine whether the SLS truly reaches any sort of launch cadence is whether there is enough "demand" for it's unique services.  And "demand" means funding from Congress to build a continuous stream of SLS-only payloads.

None of those have been fully funded by Congress yet, and if you look at NASA's history of building even small complex payloads, the SLS will be sitting around for a number of years waiting for something to do.  For instance the 3.8mT Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) took 7 years from proposal to launch, and the Orion spacecraft will have taken 18 years by the time it flies with humans.

The SLS is supposed to be operational around 2023, which is just 7 years away - see the challenge?

Those 7 years will probably be quite awkward; the joys of seeing what the next President demands coupled with building the first few sets of vehicles.  I don't think it would be outright canceled, but hopefully in that time they set payloads even if it flies a half-dozen times.

So suffice to say, we might see the components of 3 launchers put together between now and 2023?  After that I can only assume it will be either 1 or 2 yearly, depending on demand.
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Offline Lars-J

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Re: How Often can SLS launch?
« Reply #9 on: 05/22/2016 04:02 am »
... For instance the 3.8mT Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) took 7 years from proposal to launch, and the Orion spacecraft will have taken 18 years by the time it flies with humans.

The SLS is supposed to be operational around 2023, which is just 7 years away - see the challenge?

Those 7 years will probably be quite awkward; the joys of seeing what the next President demands coupled with building the first few sets of vehicles.  I don't think it would be outright canceled, but hopefully in that time they set payloads even if it flies a half-dozen times.

If it doesn't fly, it will be cancelled. NASA and Congress can not afford to have it ready for launch but not actually launch for several years. This is not something that you can complete and just put aside until you need it. Maintaining the launch capability and training the workforce will cost billions per year even if it never flies.

Offline ncb1397

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Re: How Often can SLS launch?
« Reply #10 on: 05/22/2016 06:36 pm »
This is not something that you can complete and just put aside until you need it. Maintaining the launch capability and training the workforce will cost billions per year even if it never flies.

Currently SLS costs ~ 2 billion per year during development. A situation where no launches are taking place post development will be less than that. The 2017 PBR is 1.3 billion for 2017. Your comment about multiple billions(plural) per year with no development and no launches is unsubstantiated. Historically, the cost during development with no launches has just barely crossed the multiple billions number.

« Last Edit: 05/22/2016 06:37 pm by ncb1397 »

Offline Patchouli

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Re: How Often can SLS launch?
« Reply #11 on: 05/23/2016 03:49 pm »
And recall that the Saturn V and LC-39 were both designed for launch every 60 days or so, thus the two pads (and initial plans for a third).  In fact, they only used 39B for one single launch in mainline Apollo, that being for Apollo 10.  The fastest turnaround time for a Saturn V at a given launch pad was between Apollos 8 and 9.  They both launched out of 39A, and launched roughly nine weeks apart.  Apollo 10 was rolled out to 39B right around the time of Apollo 9, and it is well-known that Apollo 11 was rolled out to 39A while Apollo 10 was still in flight.

After Apollo 11, the shortest time between two Saturn V launches was four months, which left plenty of time to clean up 39A and get it ready for the next launch.  As I've pointed out before, except for the Big Push of the first half of 1969, NASA never launched Saturn V's at a rate higher than two a year, which is the highest launch rate anyone really postulates for SLS.

If you make the assumption that SLS will be roughly equivalent in terms of stacking, prep, launch and pad clean-up to the Saturn V, there will be no problems at all in supporting a flight rate of up to three a year using just 39B.  The limiting factor on SLS launch rate is the production rate for the cores, which is now set to support between one and two launches a year.

SLS could be launched at a rate of four (to maybe up to six, with a lot of pushing) a year, in terms of the pad infrastructure, I think, but that would require spending up to a decade manufacturing all of the SLS cores, SRMs, upper stages, etc., and putting them in storage to await the high-rate period.  So, if you developed a DRA for Mars that required, say, eight SLS launches in two years, it could likely be done -- but you'd have to start making the SLS stages, as fast as your manufacturing facilities allow, right now, and couldn't start launching them for another decade or so...

One reason I wonder if they should have went with Shuttle-C as the Shuttle was able to launch 9 times a year.
The long pole in getting a more directly shuttle derived LV into the same flight rates would be SSME production.


« Last Edit: 05/23/2016 04:05 pm by Patchouli »

Offline Archibald

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Re: How Often can SLS launch?
« Reply #12 on: 05/23/2016 04:15 pm »
... For instance the 3.8mT Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) took 7 years from proposal to launch, and the Orion spacecraft will have taken 18 years by the time it flies with humans.

The SLS is supposed to be operational around 2023, which is just 7 years away - see the challenge?

Those 7 years will probably be quite awkward; the joys of seeing what the next President demands coupled with building the first few sets of vehicles.  I don't think it would be outright canceled, but hopefully in that time they set payloads even if it flies a half-dozen times.

If it doesn't fly, it will be cancelled. NASA and Congress can not afford to have it ready for launch but not actually launch for several years. This is not something that you can complete and just put aside until you need it. Maintaining the launch capability and training the workforce will cost billions per year even if it never flies.

Unfortunately it looks like Pork is a powerful propellant for SLS. God knows how far it can propell the SLS - to Europa and beyond ?
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Offline Kansan52

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Re: How Often can SLS launch?
« Reply #13 on: 05/23/2016 04:26 pm »
One reason I wonder if they should have went with Shuttle-C as the Shuttle was able to launch 9 times a year.
The long pole in getting a more directly shuttle derived LV into the same flight rates would be SSME production.

If you went that route, make it a drone orbiter. If the old design orbiters where being improved with tougher tiles. Reusing a newly built orbiter with the latest techniques would mean even the original SSMEs would be enough.

With enough money, anything is possible.

Offline Patchouli

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Re: How Often can SLS launch?
« Reply #14 on: 05/23/2016 05:58 pm »
One reason I wonder if they should have went with Shuttle-C as the Shuttle was able to launch 9 times a year.
The long pole in getting a more directly shuttle derived LV into the same flight rates would be SSME production.

If you went that route, make it a drone orbiter. If the old design orbiters where being improved with tougher tiles. Reusing a newly built orbiter with the latest techniques would mean even the original SSMEs would be enough.

With enough money, anything is possible.

A drone orbiter dispensing with all the stuff needed for a crew probably could carry another 15 to 20tons but you'd still be volume constrained.
Back on SLS one thing they definitely could and should do is move the SSME to all channel wall construction.
But still it seems like trying to make a Ferrari V12 into something cheap when you should have been using a Chevy V8 all along.



Unfortunately it looks like Pork is a powerful propellant for SLS. God knows how far it can propell the SLS - to Europa and beyond ?

Funny thing you probably could power a Falcon 9 or Saturn 1B with biodiesel made from actual pork fat.
Though the launch probably would smell like pork rinds.
« Last Edit: 05/23/2016 06:10 pm by Patchouli »

Offline Ben the Space Brit

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Re: How Often can SLS launch?
« Reply #15 on: 05/24/2016 09:53 am »
As I understand it, the Eastern Range needs a couple of days to recycle its status after every launch. The question is 'what is the maximum possible production rate' combined with 'how long does a nominal pad flow (launch to launch) for the VAB and LC-39B take?"

Other than that, it's just a matter of "How much are you willing to spend to procure and launch these things?"
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Offline redliox

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Re: How Often can SLS launch?
« Reply #16 on: 05/24/2016 10:23 am »
As I understand it, the Eastern Range needs a couple of days to recycle its status after every launch. The question is 'what is the maximum possible production rate' combined with 'how long does a nominal pad flow (launch to launch) for the VAB and LC-39B take?"

Other than that, it's just a matter of "How much are you willing to spend to procure and launch these things?"

So the launch site and its equipment could easily handle 2 to 4 yearly launches (a dozen another matter I wager).  As you say, it's the budget to build the rockets themselves in question then.
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Offline vaporcobra

Re: How Often can SLS launch?
« Reply #17 on: 05/24/2016 10:42 am »
As I understand it, the Eastern Range needs a couple of days to recycle its status after every launch. The question is 'what is the maximum possible production rate' combined with 'how long does a nominal pad flow (launch to launch) for the VAB and LC-39B take?"

Other than that, it's just a matter of "How much are you willing to spend to procure and launch these things?"

So the launch site and its equipment could easily handle 2 to 4 yearly launches (a dozen another matter I wager).  As you say, it's the budget to build the rockets themselves in question then.

Not simply the budget to build the rockets, but rather even having payloads that could not be launched with a Falcon Heavy or Delta IV Heavy/Atlas V/Falcon 9 V1.2FT, let alone having the means to support the development of a probe so monstrously large and complex that only the SLS was a viable launch vehicle, on top of actually funding the manufacturing and assembly of the SLS concurrently.

A wonderful example is the James Webb Space Telescope, a genuinely colossal and unprecedentedly large space telescope massing around 6500kg. It has literally been in developmental planning since the late 80s to mid 90s depending on how you look at it and will likely end up costing around $8b from conception to launch. Of course such a seemingly huge price tag is easily stomached when one considers that it has averaged no more than a few hundred million dollars per fiscal year, but SLS cannot afford to sit around for literal decades while probes are developed for it in the cautious, drawn-out manner than NASA's budget and the inherent complexity of such large scientific instruments require. Furthermore, JWST is launching on the Ariane 5, even though it is a 6500kg satellite that needs to end up at L2. The Falcon 9 FT is almost at a similar level of performance in its most recent 1.3ish update, and the Falcon Heavy will literally offer more than twice the capability of the Ariane 5 ECA and Ariane 6.

SLS is pure folly, plain and simple. It is STS pork wearing a post-Agustine Report costume of intentional obfuscation and ambiguity marketed as a beneficial side effect of it being a "flexible and evolvable launch vehicle". It could be immensely valuable IF it had payloads to sustain its existence, but it does not and may well never conduct any groundbreaking science whatsoever, if it follows the eminently likely path of its late twin following whoever's inauguration in January 2017. :/
« Last Edit: 05/24/2016 11:15 am by vaporcobra »

Offline Mark S

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Re: How Often can SLS launch?
« Reply #18 on: 05/24/2016 03:25 pm »
As I understand it, the Eastern Range needs a couple of days to recycle its status after every launch. The question is 'what is the maximum possible production rate' combined with 'how long does a nominal pad flow (launch to launch) for the VAB and LC-39B take?"

Other than that, it's just a matter of "How much are you willing to spend to procure and launch these things?"

So the launch site and its equipment could easily handle 2 to 4 yearly launches (a dozen another matter I wager).  As you say, it's the budget to build the rockets themselves in question then.

Did I miss the part where NASA has 2 or 3 VAB high bays dedicated to SLS, along with an MLP for each SLS vehicle being assembled, or assembled and waiting to launch? Because those might be considered as part of the launch site and its equipment.

As it stands now, there is exactly one VAB high bay being fitted for SLS. And only one MLP. So the assembly of the second SLS cannot even begin until the first SLS is launched, and the MLP is reconditioned and rolled back to the VAB.

If NASA ever needs to launch a series of SLS in sequence, more high bays will have to be fitted for SLS, and more MLPs will need to be built. This is certainly possible, but is not part of the current plan.

Cheers!

Offline wannamoonbase

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Re: How Often can SLS launch?
« Reply #19 on: 05/24/2016 08:53 pm »
Did I miss the part where NASA has 2 or 3 VAB high bays dedicated to SLS, along with an MLP for each SLS vehicle being assembled, or assembled and waiting to launch? Because those might be considered as part of the launch site and its equipment.

As it stands now, there is exactly one VAB high bay being fitted for SLS. And only one MLP. So the assembly of the second SLS cannot even begin until the first SLS is launched, and the MLP is reconditioned and rolled back to the VAB.

If NASA ever needs to launch a series of SLS in sequence, more high bays will have to be fitted for SLS, and more MLPs will need to be built. This is certainly possible, but is not part of the current plan.

Cheers!

I was wondering the same.  Not that MLPs and High bays are high dollars compared to launch vehicles and payloads but they take years to design, build and test.

3-4 a year, maximum rate for SLS would probably feel really busy for the program. 

Having payloads for 3 SLS launches per year would be even more interesting.  What would they be, where would they be going and what would they cost?
« Last Edit: 05/24/2016 08:53 pm by wannamoonbase »
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Offline Ben the Space Brit

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Re: How Often can SLS launch?
« Reply #20 on: 05/24/2016 09:42 pm »
You could have 2/year for crew to an EML spacelab, which would just be an Orion and a Cygnus-derived logistics pod. It wouldn't be permanently occupied like ISS (at least not first although I would think ramping up to 180-day mission durations would be necessary to build an experience base of the effect of long-duration extra-magnetosphere exposure for deep space missions). However, as indicated, it could easily be a significant part of the #roadtomars that NASA claims is their objective.
I'd also consider stockpiling boosters in the event other missions for that FY aren't forthcoming.

Would I be correct in assuming that, for more elaborate missions, NASA's current policy is to assume commercial space taxis for crew launch to mission vehicles launched unmanned by PLF-mounted SLS-Cargo? Additionally, I'm guessing that, with the imminent retirement of Delta-IVH, only Falcon Heavy could launch BEO Orion.

Ultimately, of course, you'd want an LEO-to-EML Halo cycler that is tanked up by tanker-rigged Cygnus and whose logistics pod is reloaded from other CRS-type cargo vessels rather than sending a new Orion for every mission to the space lab. That would allow for resupply and refit in LEO before flying back out to the lab.
« Last Edit: 05/24/2016 09:45 pm by Ben the Space Brit »
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Offline 93143

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Re: How Often can SLS launch?
« Reply #21 on: 05/24/2016 10:00 pm »
Having payloads for 3 SLS launches per year would be even more interesting.  What would they be, where would they be going and what would they cost?

You of all people ask that...

The reason SLS production maxes out so early is that they reworked it to minimize cost in the context of the severe lack of anything to do that resulted directly from Obama cancelling the lunar surface mission.  A lunar lander would only have to be developed once (~$10B for Altair, or much less (I'd hope) for Xeus) after which the cost per unit would depend on the flight rate.

It wouldn't cost all that much extra in the grand scheme of things to run SLS like Shuttle but with more sophisticated tooling.  Peak production could be a dozen cores per year, easy.  You could launch half a dozen rockets a year for maybe a few billion dollars, possibly less.  You'd need to pay for the plant upgrade, but that wouldn't break the bank by itself in the context of an actual agreed-on and funded exploration program.

Online Coastal Ron

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Re: How Often can SLS launch?
« Reply #22 on: 05/26/2016 10:13 pm »
The reason SLS production maxes out so early is that they reworked it to minimize cost in the context of the severe lack of anything to do that resulted directly from Obama cancelling the lunar surface mission.

At no time during the life of the SLS was there a lunar surface mission approved.

Quote
It wouldn't cost all that much extra in the grand scheme of things to run SLS like Shuttle but with more sophisticated tooling.

The tooling is already "sophisticated".  As to cost, we don't know what the cost drivers are because NASA has not released any cost data to the public or to Congress.

From a manufacturing standpoint, in order to drive costs down you need schedule stability and a long period (i.e. years) of production in order to identify where costs can be lowered.  This is hard to do when initially jumping from low numbers to high numbers without any real production experience, so actual cost reductions can't be assumed until at least the second batch of production contracts - which could be a decade down the road based on how the Shuttle program was run.

In other words, it is unlikely that the first batch of high-volume SLS will cost too much less than what the current low-volume SLS cost, since there is no real production history yet.  And production history is not just making parts, but getting feedback from the use of them also.  Which means launch operations and real launches.

Quote
Peak production could be a dozen cores per year, easy.

Anything is possible given enough money.  And money has always been the prime constraint for what we do in space, and that is something beyond the ability of the SLS folks to solve (i.e. it's political).

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You'd need to pay for the plant upgrade, but that wouldn't break the bank by itself in the context of an actual agreed-on and funded exploration program.

The SLS is a transportation element, and overall the cost of transportation should not be the cost driver.  Mission elements and the support functions will be the major cost drivers.  That's why watching how reluctant Congress is in funding payloads and missions for the SLS is more of an indicator of the future of the SLS than how well the SLS is progressing through it's own development.
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Offline 93143

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Re: How Often can SLS launch?
« Reply #23 on: 05/27/2016 12:03 am »
The reason SLS production maxes out so early is that they reworked it to minimize cost in the context of the severe lack of anything to do that resulted directly from Obama cancelling the lunar surface mission.

At no time during the life of the SLS was there a lunar surface mission approved.

It's Shuttle-derived.  Shuttle had a far higher maximum production rate, as did every other SD-HLV before SLS, from Magnum to the Jupiter-like Ares replacement everybody was converging on in the months before the FY2011 budget request was released.  The plant modernization for SLS deliberately incorporated a severe reduction in maximum capacity as a cost-saving measure.  The driver for this decision was the combination of restricted out-year funding and anemic mission manifest proposed by the White House.

...

Digression:

Characterizing SLS as a "rocket to nowhere" is ignoring the elephant in the room - the fact that lunar surface missions require only one additional hardware element to start and can happen as often as you like for quite a while without exhausting the possibilities.   And this was the plan before the FY2011 PBR, which SLS was a rejection of; the law makes it pretty clear that Congress still supported the VSE.  Really, to some of us who have been paying attention since well before the Augustine Commission, it looks like the Obama administration is doing its best to make SLS look as useless and unaffordable as possible.  Trying to turn it into as big a waste of money as possible, rather than either honestly trying to cancel it or honorably trying to make the best of it.  And this "lack of need" talk plays right into their hands.

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The tooling is already "sophisticated".

The contrast was with Shuttle, not SLS as implemented.

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As to cost, we don't know what the cost drivers are because NASA has not released any cost data to the public or to Congress.

I'm using the ESD Integration numbers, which I consider to represent a rough upper limit based on other available information, and which do permit marginal costs to be backed out for the launcher.  Flight rate extrapolation is based on observed similarities between the ESD Integration numbers and the DIRECT numbers.

Speaking of marginal cost, I will eventually get back to our PM conversation on that topic.  I'm just busier than usual lately, which is also why my response rate in public threads has been uneven.

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watching how reluctant Congress is in funding payloads and missions for the SLS

Normally Congress funds things that have been proposed to them by NASA/the Executive branch.  They went way out on a limb to get SLS (and rescue Orion, which nobody had proposed cancelling before Obama did it), and considering that they've been having trouble just passing budgets (remember, the space supporters are by no means all of Congress, and even for them space isn't their only concern), I don't think it's reasonable to expect much more out of them with Obama in the White House.  ARM was never a terribly attractive idea, and doesn't solve the mission manifest problem.

They are trying to get the EUS (and DSH, and EC) built and had been intermittently poking NASA about the moon for a while before the topic showed up in the budget bill...
« Last Edit: 05/27/2016 02:30 am by 93143 »

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Re: How Often can SLS launch?
« Reply #24 on: 05/27/2016 03:09 am »
The plant modernization for SLS deliberately incorporated a severe reduction in maximum capacity as a cost-saving measure.

Setting up Michoud for the SLS production was not "moderization" of the Shuttle tooling.  Other than the outside of the building, everything inside for the SLS is new.

As to the production rate the factory supports, it would have been a waste of money to build a production line that had a far higher capacity than was needed in the short term.  And lacking any known demand, NASA sized the factory to support the announced safe flight rate cadence of one, plus about 50%.  Which is very reasonable.

And that rate can be increased to two per year with extra money from NASA - no additional tooling needed.

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The driver for this decision was the combination of restricted out-year funding and anemic mission manifest proposed by the White House.

SLS-sized payloads are going to take years to build from scratch, especially if they have to be human-rated.  The 4mT Mars Science Laboratory (MSL), which is not that complicated, took 7 years from proposal to launch.

So if a steady stream of SLS payloads gets funded, there is more than enough time to ramp up the production rate for the SLS.  But until that happens, anything above and beyond the minimum they have today would be a waste of U.S. Taxpayer money.

Quote
Characterizing SLS as a "rocket to nowhere" is ignoring the elephant in the room - the fact that lunar surface missions require only one additional hardware element to start and can happen as often as you like for quite a while without exhausting the possibilities.

If all we want to do is repeat the Apollo program, sure.  See how many votes that idea will get in Congress.

Quote
Really, to some of us who have been paying attention since well before the Augustine Commission, it looks like the Obama administration is doing its best to make SLS look as useless and unaffordable as possible.

Count me as one of the people that have been paying attention since the Bush 43 era.

Obama didn't want an HLV for NASA because he didn't think there was a need.  Congress insisted on it anyways.  So far it looks like Obama made the right call.  I'm not seeing how this is his fault.

Quote
I'm using the ESD Integration numbers...

Yes, we all have our own favorite numbers that we use to justify our personal estimates.  I just wanted to point out that despite stating that they were going to release cost information, NASA has not - to anyone, including Congress.  I take that as a bad sign, meaning that the costs will be high enough to cause concern within Congress.  You may interpret it differently, but without facts it doesn't matter anymore at this point.  No need to get back to our PM conversation.

Quote
Normally Congress funds things that have been proposed to them by NASA/the Executive branch.  They went way out on a limb to get SLS (and rescue Orion, which nobody had proposed cancelling before Obama did it)

No, Congress is in charge of creating all spending bills.  The President proposes, etc.

And no, Congress did not go out on a limb.  They had the support of the two largest government contractors behind them, as well as all the politicians with SLS and Orion related work.  All in the middle of the worst recession in 80 years.  I don't see where the risk was.

Quote
...and considering that they've been having trouble just passing budgets...

Sounds like you're making excuses for those in Congress who won't do their job.  I have no such sympathy.

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...I don't think it's reasonable to expect much more out of them with Obama in the White House.

There is nothing stopping Congress from proposing uses for the SLS.  Congress is always free to propose whatever they want.  The President can veto it, but may not be able to if it's in an omnibus bill.

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ARM was never a terribly attractive idea, and doesn't solve the mission manifest problem.

Obama never expended any "political capital" on ARM (Senator Nelson did though), and as currently proposed it was not meant to support Obama's asteroid proposal, but to provide a need for the SLS (which is why Nelson announced it).  It's ironic that no one supported it.
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Offline Eerie

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Re: How Often can SLS launch?
« Reply #25 on: 05/27/2016 09:19 am »
Re: large payloads for SLS. How much more expensive could it be to take the design of a not super-heavy space craft, and just enlarge the fuel tanks until it's too large for everything but SLS? I dunno, imagine Cassini with an additional 20 tons of hydrazine. it could have many more years of service...
« Last Edit: 05/27/2016 09:21 am by Eerie »

Offline Ben the Space Brit

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Re: How Often can SLS launch?
« Reply #26 on: 05/27/2016 10:08 am »
Scaling up isn't that simple; it can affect centre of mass (and thus the stability of the vehicle whilst thrusting or rotating). It can also affect heat generation. Generally, scaling-up turns out to be harder (and more expensive) than just designing a new spacecraft from scratch. In many ways, Orion (which was supposed to be just a scaled-up and modernised Apollo) is proof of that.
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Offline Eerie

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Re: How Often can SLS launch?
« Reply #27 on: 05/27/2016 10:14 am »
Scaling up isn't that simple; it can affect centre of mass (and thus the stability of the vehicle whilst thrusting or rotating). It can also affect heat generation. Generally, scaling-up turns out to be harder (and more expensive) than just designing a new spacecraft from scratch. In many ways, Orion (which was supposed to be just a scaled-up and modernised Apollo) is proof of that.

OK, that's not exactly what I meant to say. Not simply scaling up. But let's say you are designing a spacecraft on the budget of Cassini. You have the same set of instruments. The only difference is that your fuel reserves can be significantly larger.

Such spacecraft can't cost much more than the original Cassini.

I'm just thinking of ways to invent payloads for SLS, without said payloads costing an arm and a leg.
« Last Edit: 05/27/2016 10:15 am by Eerie »

Offline Ben the Space Brit

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Re: How Often can SLS launch?
« Reply #28 on: 05/27/2016 10:45 am »
Yes but you're missing an essential point. The money is not available to develop and build 'flagship'-class missions like Cassini right now, no matter how large its propellent load.

As I said in my previous post, there are limits to engineering. You can only put so many fuel tanks onto a probe bus before it becomes too sluggish to align its sensors properly. Fixing problems like this is another cost driver and it ultimately becomes an issue of having to redesign the whole vehicle from scratch because that's a cheaper solution.

Simply put, you'd be better off designing a probe sized for SLS from scratch than spending millions (if not billions) on a fruitless effort to scale up an existing design.
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Offline Eerie

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Re: How Often can SLS launch?
« Reply #29 on: 05/27/2016 12:50 pm »
Yes but you're missing an essential point. The money is not available to develop and build 'flagship'-class missions like Cassini right now, no matter how large its propellent load.

As I said in my previous post, there are limits to engineering. You can only put so many fuel tanks onto a probe bus before it becomes too sluggish to align its sensors properly. Fixing problems like this is another cost driver and it ultimately becomes an issue of having to redesign the whole vehicle from scratch because that's a cheaper solution.

Simply put, you'd be better off designing a probe sized for SLS from scratch than spending millions (if not billions) on a fruitless effort to scale up an existing design.

OK, let me try to rephrase again.

I think that it should be possible to design even a 'Discovery'-class spacecraft that will only fit on SLS.

Offline Jim

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Re: How Often can SLS launch?
« Reply #30 on: 05/27/2016 01:27 pm »

I think that it should be possible to design even a 'Discovery'-class spacecraft that will only fit on SLS.

Mutually exclusive:  'Discovery'-class spacecraft and SLS.

Offline Eerie

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Re: How Often can SLS launch?
« Reply #31 on: 05/27/2016 01:29 pm »

I think that it should be possible to design even a 'Discovery'-class spacecraft that will only fit on SLS.

Mutually exclusive:  'Discovery'-class spacecraft and SLS.

I'm talking about price.

I mean, you could launch a 100 ton solid piece of iron on SLS, theoretically.

Offline RonM

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Re: How Often can SLS launch?
« Reply #32 on: 05/27/2016 01:53 pm »

I think that it should be possible to design even a 'Discovery'-class spacecraft that will only fit on SLS.

Mutually exclusive:  'Discovery'-class spacecraft and SLS.

I'm talking about price.

I mean, you could launch a 100 ton solid piece of iron on SLS, theoretically.

A Discovery class mission can be launched on a smaller rocket, so why add mass to use SLS?

SLS needs appropriate payloads to be useful. The problem is Congress is willing to spend billions of dollars building rockets and not willing to spend money on payloads. NASA and SLS are not the problem, it's Congress wasting money by micromanaging NASA spending without regard to what NASA really needs.

Congress does the same thing with other departments, especially DOD. It goes something like this, the Air Force says it needs n fighter aircraft, Congress sets the budget for n+10 aircraft, but only budgets maintenance for n aircraft. The contractor is happy because they make more money and the Air Force is stuck with extra brand new planes wasting away because no one is maintaining them.

SLS needs to fly at least once per year to keep the production line and launch process going. The first flight will be in two or three years, but it looks like the second flight will be four years later. That's two flights in four years while NASA will be paying employees and maintenance on systems that could do four to eight flights in that time. What a waste.

SLS and Orion could be an effective exploration system, especially in cislunar space, but Congress is really just interested in funneling money to their districts.

Offline Eerie

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Re: How Often can SLS launch?
« Reply #33 on: 05/27/2016 02:58 pm »
A Discovery class mission can be launched on a smaller rocket, so why add mass to use SLS?

To fabricate payloads for SLS. :-)

Offline Proponent

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Re: How Often can SLS launch?
« Reply #34 on: 05/27/2016 03:26 pm »
Re: large payloads for SLS. How much more expensive could it be to take the design of a not super-heavy space craft, and just enlarge the fuel tanks until it's too large for everything but SLS? I dunno, imagine Cassini with an additional 20 tons of hydrazine. it could have many more years of service...

In another thread, Blackstar mentioned that a major reason that longer planetary missions cost more is that the testing program need be longer and more expensive.  This would have raised the cost of a longer-lived Cassini.

Offline llanitedave

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Re: How Often can SLS launch?
« Reply #35 on: 05/27/2016 03:40 pm »
Really, to some of us who have been paying attention since well before the Augustine Commission, it looks like the Obama administration is doing its best to make SLS look as useless and unaffordable as possible. 

The Obama administration????  It's half the members of this site!
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Re: How Often can SLS launch?
« Reply #36 on: 05/27/2016 08:24 pm »
Really, to some of us who have been paying attention since well before the Augustine Commission, it looks like the Obama administration is doing its best to make SLS look as useless and unaffordable as possible. 

The Obama administration????  It's half the members of this site!

It was Congress that promised the SLS was needed, so why aren't they being held accountable?
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Offline Dante80

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Re: How Often can SLS launch?
« Reply #37 on: 05/29/2016 06:20 am »
A Discovery class mission can be launched on a smaller rocket, so why add mass to use SLS?

To fabricate payloads for SLS. :-)

That does not make much sense though. Fabricating cheap payloads for SLS would only show that SLS itself is very expensive, and that those payloads could be designed even cheaper, for a cheaper alternative. But weren't.
« Last Edit: 05/29/2016 06:22 am by Dante80 »

Offline AncientU

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Re: How Often can SLS launch?
« Reply #38 on: 05/29/2016 12:36 pm »
Having payloads for 3 SLS launches per year would be even more interesting.  What would they be, where would they be going and what would they cost?

You of all people ask that...

The reason SLS production maxes out so early is that they reworked it to minimize cost in the context of the severe lack of anything to do that resulted directly from Obama cancelling the lunar surface mission.  A lunar lander would only have to be developed once (~$10B for Altair, or much less (I'd hope) for Xeus) after which the cost per unit would depend on the flight rate.

It wouldn't cost all that much extra in the grand scheme of things to run SLS like Shuttle but with more sophisticated tooling. Peak production could be a dozen cores per year, easy.  You could launch half a dozen rockets a year for maybe a few billion dollars, possibly less.  You'd need to pay for the plant upgrade, but that wouldn't break the bank by itself in the context of an actual agreed-on and funded exploration program.

You also need 48 RS25-Es and 24 boosters(PER YEAR!!!), several MLPs, assembly buildings, etc...
Did I mention payloads?

If you want to launch a dozen per year, design a system with that in mind. 
Back fitting it on SLS is crazy talk.
« Last Edit: 05/29/2016 03:39 pm by AncientU »
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Offline Proponent

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Re: How Often can SLS launch?
« Reply #39 on: 05/31/2016 08:39 pm »
Characterizing SLS as a "rocket to nowhere" is ignoring the elephant in the room - the fact that lunar surface missions require only one additional hardware element to start and can happen as often as you like for quite a while without exhausting the possibilities.   And this was the plan before the FY2011 PBR, which SLS was a rejection of; the law makes it pretty clear that Congress still supported the VSE.  Really, to some of us who have been paying attention since well before the Augustine Commission, it looks like the Obama administration is doing its best to make SLS look as useless and unaffordable as possible.  Trying to turn it into as big a waste of money as possible, rather than either honestly trying to cancel it or honorably trying to make the best of it.  And this "lack of need" talk plays right into their hands.

If Congress was still keen on the VSE, why did it not direct NASA to build a lander in the 2010 Authorization Act?  It already ordered the continuation of Orion and specified a rocket design.  Telling NASA to get started on Altair or a derivative thereof by some date would not have been much more of a stretch.

In the meantime, Congress seems keen on spending an amount of the same order of magnitude as Altair's costs on another SLS mission, namely Europa.

Offline ncb1397

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Re: How Often can SLS launch?
« Reply #40 on: 05/31/2016 10:47 pm »
Really, to some of us who have been paying attention since well before the Augustine Commission, it looks like the Obama administration is doing its best to make SLS look as useless and unaffordable as possible. 

The Obama administration????  It's half the members of this site!

It was Congress that promised the SLS was needed, so why aren't they being held accountable?

Congress is now directly funding SLS payloads because the administration won't plan for them. Their budget profile is not inconsistent with a yearly launch rate.

2021-EM-2
2022- Europa Clipper
2023- EM-3 with DSH
2024- Europa Lander

Some notes on this schedule. Congress directed the administration by law to give a profile of funding in order to get Europa ready to fly by 2022. There was a budget profile for Europa presented in the 2017 PBR. The house NASA budget has the 2017 amount quoted by NASA in the PBR with padding. Funding for a DSH starting in 2017 gives 6 years until the 2023, which I think is doable especially when some of the concepts are simply more pressurized volume which shouldn't be complicated. I am pretty sure that EM-2 slipping to 2023 was based on outyear planning based on PBR outyear funding profiles which are always lower for SLS and Orion than what they actually get. NASA was planning based on unrealistically low funding.

Offline Ben the Space Brit

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Re: How Often can SLS launch?
« Reply #41 on: 06/03/2016 09:18 am »
That schedule is interesting. Has NASA made any public statement to indicate that these are now the target launch years for SLS-03 through -06? I think it would give the SLS project a much needed shot of credibility in the arm if it were announced that these were 'set in granite' targets with project managers clearly briefed that significant schedule slips are no longer tolerable to headquarters.

Just one thing to add; the fifth item on that list could very well be: "2025 - SpaceX MCT first demonstration flight (LEO or LLO)". If SLS does not have significant momentum at that point, then political issues may arise that will put the project in jeopardy. This is especially the case if MCT has a cargo launch variant with significant TLI and TMI payload numbers.


[edit]
Just an addendum to this post. If the DSH has a test flight in 2023, I would want it left in a stable orbit somewhere at the end of the mission. Thereafter, there should be at least one Orion + logistics module (Cygnus-derived?) flight to it every year to boost the flight rate to at least 2/yr. There are solid economic, political and engineering arguments to increasing the SLS/Orion flight rate and, as much as it will be just 'flying for the sake of flying' the advantages would outweigh any disadvantage.
« Last Edit: 06/03/2016 09:30 am by Ben the Space Brit »
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Offline woods170

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Re: How Often can SLS launch?
« Reply #42 on: 06/03/2016 10:48 am »
Really, to some of us who have been paying attention since well before the Augustine Commission, it looks like the Obama administration is doing its best to make SLS look as useless and unaffordable as possible. 

The Obama administration? ???  It's half the members of this site!

It was Congress that promised the SLS was needed, so why aren't they being held accountable?

Congress is now directly funding SLS payloads because the administration won't plan for them. Their budget profile is not inconsistent with a yearly launch rate.

2021-EM-2
2022- Europa Clipper
2023- EM-3 with DSH
2024- Europa Lander

Some notes on this schedule. Congress directed the administration by law to give a profile of funding in order to get Europa ready to fly by 2022. There was a budget profile for Europa presented in the 2017 PBR. The house NASA budget has the 2017 amount quoted by NASA in the PBR with padding. Funding for a DSH starting in 2017 gives 6 years until the 2023, which I think is doable especially when some of the concepts are simply more pressurized volume which shouldn't be complicated. I am pretty sure that EM-2 slipping to 2023 was based on outyear planning based on PBR outyear funding profiles which are always lower for SLS and Orion than what they actually get. NASA was planning based on unrealistically low funding.

It is highly un-surprising that the current administration is not willing to plan payloads for SLS beyond EM-1 and EM-2. NASA and the Obama administration did not want SLS to begin with. But US Congress rammed SLS down their throats by writing the existence of SLS into law.
So it is only natural that NASA and the Obama administration were subsequently not very keen on coming up with missions and payloads for SLS. And the story repeats itself: US Congress has now begun ramming payloads and missions down NASA's throat by writing them into law.
I thouroughly believe that somehow this idiotic behaviour will one day come back and bite US Congress in the *ss.
But even with the missions being written into law it still means SLS is supposed to launch just once every year max. So NASA did a good job in guesstimating the needed production capacity for SLS. At best SLS can launch twice a year based on the currently planned infrastructure. In the long run there is IMO no need to increase this capacity.
« Last Edit: 06/03/2016 10:52 am by woods170 »

Offline Proponent

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Re: How Often can SLS launch?
« Reply #43 on: 06/03/2016 11:38 am »
And note that the two very expensive Europa payloads Congress is proposing have nothing to do with the reasons Congress gave to justify SLS in the first place.  Being so expensive, they actually make it less likely that payloads and missions of the sort for which SLS was supposedly intended will be funded.
« Last Edit: 06/03/2016 11:41 am by Proponent »

Offline gospacex

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Re: How Often can SLS launch?
« Reply #44 on: 06/03/2016 11:59 am »
SLS and in fact most of existing LVs and people/organizations around them are an interesting target for social studies of organizations under paradigm shift.
All kinds of bizarre psychological reactions are present.
Lots of hilarity, such as ESA and ULA each designing a new LV which is *obsolete before it is even built*.

This thread is an example of a bizarre psychological reaction - denial.

SLS is dead, like a huge dinosaur with its tiny head chopped off. The huge body - meaning, all the people who spent years lobbying and pushing for this plan, the people employed in designing and building it, people who maintain the infrastructure on the Cape - is still "alive".

Somewhere inside they know its all futile. SLS will be canceled, sooner or later.
But they are far too invested into the project to allow this thought to fully form in their heads, much less to say it out loud. Some are "merely" unwilling to admit that they were wrong. Others would lose their job, for some this also means a failure as a manager.

Politicians, as usual, don't even care that it's useless - what's important is that today money do flow to their districts, so eventual cancellation of SLS is unimportant (to them).
« Last Edit: 06/03/2016 11:59 am by gospacex »

Offline Chris Bergin

Re: How Often can SLS launch?
« Reply #45 on: 06/03/2016 02:40 pm »
SLS and in fact most of existing LVs and people/organizations around them are an interesting target for social studies of organizations under paradigm shift.
All kinds of bizarre psychological reactions are present.
Lots of hilarity, such as ESA and ULA each designing a new LV which is *obsolete before it is even built*.

This thread is an example of a bizarre psychological reaction - denial.

SLS is dead, like a huge dinosaur with its tiny head chopped off. The huge body - meaning, all the people who spent years lobbying and pushing for this plan, the people employed in designing and building it, people who maintain the infrastructure on the Cape - is still "alive".

Somewhere inside they know its all futile. SLS will be canceled, sooner or later.
But they are far too invested into the project to allow this thought to fully form in their heads, much less to say it out loud. Some are "merely" unwilling to admit that they were wrong. Others would lose their job, for some this also means a failure as a manager.

Politicians, as usual, don't even care that it's useless - what's important is that today money do flow to their districts, so eventual cancellation of SLS is unimportant (to them).

It's not clear, but are you saying you're not a fan of SLS? ;)

Let's keep these threads on the topic of the thread, not least when the above reads like you're insulting everyone who doesn't buy into your personal opinion.
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Offline the_other_Doug

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Re: How Often can SLS launch?
« Reply #46 on: 06/03/2016 08:09 pm »
SLS and in fact most of existing LVs and people/organizations around them are an interesting target for social studies of organizations under paradigm shift.
All kinds of bizarre psychological reactions are present.
Lots of hilarity, such as ESA and ULA each designing a new LV which is *obsolete before it is even built*.

This thread is an example of a bizarre psychological reaction - denial.

SLS is dead, like a huge dinosaur with its tiny head chopped off. The huge body - meaning, all the people who spent years lobbying and pushing for this plan, the people employed in designing and building it, people who maintain the infrastructure on the Cape - is still "alive".

Somewhere inside they know its all futile. SLS will be canceled, sooner or later.
But they are far too invested into the project to allow this thought to fully form in their heads, much less to say it out loud. Some are "merely" unwilling to admit that they were wrong. Others would lose their job, for some this also means a failure as a manager.

Politicians, as usual, don't even care that it's useless - what's important is that today money do flow to their districts, so eventual cancellation of SLS is unimportant (to them).

It's not clear, but are you saying you're not a fan of SLS? ;)

Let's keep these threads on the topic of the thread, not least when the above reads like you're insulting everyone who doesn't buy into your personal opinion.

Which is why I keep threatening to start a thread titled "SLS Sucks, Why I Hate It and It Should Be Canceled NOW".  I would then ask any post like the one above to be moved to that thread by the mods, where I can just ignore it and use this thread to follow the progress on the heavy-lift launch vehicle the United States is actually building...  ;)
-Doug  (With my shield, not yet upon it)

Online Coastal Ron

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Re: How Often can SLS launch?
« Reply #47 on: 06/04/2016 03:17 am »
Congress is now directly funding SLS payloads because the administration won't plan for them.

Congress directly funds everything.  That's how our government works.  The President proposes "stuff", and Congress ultimately decides whether any of what the President wants get funded, and then adds "stuff" that the President didn't propose that Congress wants.

Congress wanted the SLS and the President didn't, so it's always been up to Congress to take the lead.

Quote
Their budget profile is not inconsistent with a yearly launch rate.

2021-EM-2
2022- Europa Clipper
2023- EM-3 with DSH
2024- Europa Lander

From what I can see the Europa Clipper and Europa Lander are part of the same mission now called the Europa Multiple-Flyby Mission.  And though the proposed launch date is 2022, that is only 6 years away.  As a point of comparison the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL), which was an evolution of prior Mars landers, took 7 years and cost $2.5B.  I find it hard to believe that both an orbiter and a lander - both new designs - can be built, tested and ready to fly any sooner than the MSL did.

Quote
Some notes on this schedule. Congress directed the administration by law to give a profile of funding in order to get Europa ready to fly by 2022.

I give NASA Administrator Bolden a lot of credit for getting NASA programs back on schedule, but he is likely to be gone soon, and NASA has a history of underestimating how long bleeding-edge programs take to build.  For instance, the James Webb Space Telescope will have taken 18 years by the time it flies.

Quote
Funding for a DSH starting in 2017 gives 6 years until the 2023, which I think is doable especially when some of the concepts are simply more pressurized volume which shouldn't be complicated.

Yet the "Apollo on steroids" Orion spacecraft, which is human-rated, will have taken 18 years by the time it flies it's first mission with humans onboard.  Human-rated vehicles are never simpler than they look...

Quote
I am pretty sure that EM-2 slipping to 2023 was based on outyear planning based on PBR outyear funding profiles which are always lower for SLS and Orion than what they actually get. NASA was planning based on unrealistically low funding.

As I understand it NASA pushed out the schedule because of the combination of the EUS being ready and human-rated, and the Orion schedule being behind.

The SLS is a complex program, as is the Orion.  And it was never funded by Congress to go very fast, so it could slip further out if any hiccups of any kind happen.  That's just the nature of these types of things...
If we don't continuously lower the cost to access space, how are we ever going to afford to expand humanity out into space?

Offline JH

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Re: How Often can SLS launch?
« Reply #48 on: 06/05/2016 07:42 pm »
From what I can see the Europa Clipper and Europa Lander are part of the same mission now called the Europa Multiple-Flyby Mission.

The name "Europa Multiple-Flyby Mission" has largely fallen out of favor (not that it ever had much) in the community. The reasons are twofold as far as I can tell: 1) NASA insisting on a new name for a mission that is universally known within the community was widely interpreted as unnecessary at best and petulant at worst 2) it can be abbreviated in an embarrassing way. Current discussions usually involve an abortive attempt to use "Europa Mission" before everyone just defaults back to calling it Clipper. As far as the lander goes, most people are just relieved that it is no longer mandated to launch at the same time as Clipper. Obviously this is just based on my person experiences.

Offline vaporcobra

Re: How Often can SLS launch?
« Reply #49 on: 09/02/2016 11:32 am »

I think that it should be possible to design even a 'Discovery'-class spacecraft that will only fit on SLS.

Mutually exclusive:  'Discovery'-class spacecraft and SLS.

I'm talking about price.

I mean, you could launch a 100 ton solid piece of iron on SLS, theoretically.

I believe that the main issue therein of the giant fuel tank tiny probe concept is that at that point, one could undoubtedly add advanced and "heritage" (flight proven) electric propulsion and nuclear power to the same probe, like giving it similar or greater range for probably 50-75% less than the price of SLS as a launch vehicle. The cost is prohibitive, barring comical STS-esque government subsides to pull payloads out of their top hats. Possible verging on probable, but then there is the entirely separate issue of sparse funds for any major probes whatsoever. Discover is a shadow of what it was intended to be partially because of SLS eating up budget :(

Offline Khadgars

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Re: How Often can SLS launch?
« Reply #50 on: 09/04/2016 01:22 am »
Quote
Possible verging on probable, but then there is the entirely separate issue of sparse funds for any major probes whatsoever. Discover is a shadow of what it was intended to be partially because of SLS eating up budget :(

I don't think this is even remotely accurate, though I would like Blackstar to clarify.  But as I understand it, the SLS/Orion budget is taken from a different pool than those used for Discovery missions.  The squeeze you are seeing on Discovery missions has more to do with JWST than anything related to SLS/Orion.

SLS/Orion is basically using the budget we used for STS.
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Offline redliox

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Re: How Often can SLS launch?
« Reply #51 on: 09/04/2016 03:38 am »
I don't think this is even remotely accurate, though I would like Blackstar to clarify.  But as I understand it, the SLS/Orion budget is taken from a different pool than those used for Discovery missions.  The squeeze you are seeing on Discovery missions has more to do with JWST than anything related to SLS/Orion.

SLS/Orion is basically using the budget we used for STS.

Exactly, although NASA doesn't hesitate to do some cookie jar raiding now and again; fortunately Congress warned them not to do that.

From what I've read on how often SLS can launch, the range (as I'm sure enough members will probably tell me is 'old news') appears to be between once ever 2 years to a maximum of 3 times yearly.  The median value (which I doubt is conservative, but more so than the 3-per-year value), is about 1.75.  This roughly translates to 1 initial launch, then 3 years of double launches, and another single launch year before another cycle.  While not absolute, I think this could be a reasonable expectation to plan around...

Going by a 1.75 rate, consider this: for better or worse, Orion will inevitably be paired with SLS and demand at least one mission yearly.  In 2018 (if all goes well), we will have a single launch of SLS/Orion on EM-1 and then the obvious gap until 2023; this gives some time to construct the components of EM-2 but also additional SLS stages (Block 1B for the foreseeable future).  Most likely there will always be one mandatory Orion mission to ensure human presence, but the 2nd yearly SLS could be reserved for cargo (or otherwise crewless) flights; a reason this may be possible: NASA is supposed to be increasing the length-of-stay in space to prepare for Mars; a year-long stay in Lunar space fits this, and each Orion sent via SLS 1B should be able to haul sufficient supplies not to mention change out crews.

We have 2 tentative 'cargo' rated missions: Europa (Clipper) and a Cislunar Habitat (regardless of what orbit or name it ends up with); each could become the 2nd launch after an Orion mission.  If I had to guess, I believe the Europa mission will be flight ready before the Hab, mainly because bureaucracy (both USA politics and NASA) will debate the Hab's function (minor Cyngus-style storage locker v.s. ISS 2, lunar support v.s. asteroid/Mars excursions as legitimate examples).  ARM, (fights to keep from shuttering saying the name), for better or worse is a third example of a cargo flight, but it may not require the SLS and its mission may change (to Deimos/Phobos for instance).  On top of this, less certain but proposed projects like the HD Telescope or an Ice Giant mission would have gains from using SLS.

The SLS manifest is only apparently empty because the HSF and Planetary communities are cautiously awaiting permission; again citing Europa, that mission is on the list.  An Orion and Europa flying in the same year will be a grand way to showcase SLS' versatility.  Even assuming a new President wants to gut the program, they will be extremely hesitant to avoid upsetting both the public and Congress - kicking NASA is like kicking a puppy.  There will be missions to fly on SLS alongside Orion, even at a slow pace.
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Offline Khadgars

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Re: How Often can SLS launch?
« Reply #52 on: 09/16/2016 06:24 pm »
Quote
The SLS manifest is only apparently empty because the HSF and Planetary communities are cautiously awaiting permission; again citing Europa, that mission is on the list.  An Orion and Europa flying in the same year will be a grand way to showcase SLS' versatility.  Even assuming a new President wants to gut the program, they will be extremely hesitant to avoid upsetting both the public and Congress - kicking NASA is like kicking a puppy.  There will be missions to fly on SLS alongside Orion, even at a slow pace.


Agreed.  NASA will have the funds for a co-manifested Hab to fly with Orion with the current budget.  This will allow ample missions in the 2020's.
« Last Edit: 09/16/2016 08:23 pm by Khadgars »
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Offline Jim

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Re: How Often can SLS launch?
« Reply #53 on: 09/16/2016 06:42 pm »
Not really.  Orion has no place to go with a hab.  And Europe is still EELV compatible.

Offline Jim

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Re: How Often can SLS launch?
« Reply #54 on: 09/16/2016 06:44 pm »

 the budget we used for STS.


And that budget also reduced what was available for payloads.

Offline Khadgars

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Re: How Often can SLS launch?
« Reply #55 on: 09/16/2016 08:46 pm »
Not really.  Orion has no place to go with a hab.  And Europe is still EELV compatible.

It will go to cis-lunar space, where presumably it will test out advanced ECLSS and other systems for 3-6 month stays.
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Offline redliox

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Re: How Often can SLS launch?
« Reply #56 on: 09/16/2016 11:31 pm »
Courtesy of the 'Minimal Architecture for Human Journeys to Mars' thread and the Price-Baker presentation.  Until Martian surface missions happen, we may see an average of 1 SLS yearly.  Some of the dates likely will be tweaked, but the presentation itself is dated for September 14, 2016 so it is as current as can be expected.  I included the presentation itself as well, which focuses on visiting Phobos and then Mars.
« Last Edit: 09/16/2016 11:41 pm by redliox »
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Online Bob Shaw

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Re: How Often can SLS launch?
« Reply #57 on: 09/17/2016 12:02 am »
So, to summarise: we have the Musk F9H and BFR, and the Bezos BFRs (plural), all sort-of-probably self-financed and trundling along nicely and with *zero* need to assuage the politicians, and then we have SLS, slave to pork and with few obvious payloads.

And, as all politicians know in their waters - but try to ignore - there is always the response from UK Prime Minister Harold Macmillan when asked what a PM most feared: 'Events, dear boy, events'. For 'events', read 'China'...

In short, I wish the US Government would finance payloads, and get out of the launch business.
« Last Edit: 09/17/2016 12:03 am by Bob Shaw »

Offline redliox

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Re: How Often can SLS launch?
« Reply #58 on: 09/17/2016 01:48 am »
So, to summarise: we have the Musk F9H and BFR, and the Bezos BFRs (plural), all sort-of-probably self-financed and trundling along nicely and with *zero* need to assuage the politicians, and then we have SLS, slave to pork and with few obvious payloads.

In short, I wish the US Government would finance payloads, and get out of the launch business.

It is slowly heading in that direction it appears.  SpaceX and Blue Origin and their respective rockets are still in the fledgling phase and yet to fly; the SLS will probably see some use before it gets traded out for a commercial equivalent.  Most likely, if anything, we will initially see NASA finally create a blend of plans that utilize more commercial rockets supplementing SLS and Orion.  That I think will be the first step in a good direction, but again I believe the SLS will have some use.
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Offline MATTBLAK

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Re: How Often can SLS launch?
« Reply #59 on: 09/17/2016 02:12 am »
So, to summarise: we have the Musk F9H and BFR, and the Bezos BFRs (plural), all sort-of-probably self-financed and trundling along nicely and with *zero* need to assuage the politicians, and then we have SLS, slave to pork and with few obvious payloads.

In short, I wish the US Government would finance payloads, and get out of the launch business.

It is slowly heading in that direction it appears.  SpaceX and Blue Origin and their respective rockets are still in the fledgling phase and yet to fly; the SLS will probably see some use before it gets traded out for a commercial equivalent.  Most likely, if anything, we will initially see NASA finally create a blend of plans that utilize more commercial rockets supplementing SLS and Orion.  That I think will be the first step in a good direction, but again I believe the SLS will have some use.
I would advocate/prefer ditching the SLS solids, keeping the corestage but moving to Commercially-supplied liquid boosters; reusable or not.
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Offline redliox

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Re: How Often can SLS launch?
« Reply #60 on: 09/17/2016 05:23 am »
So, to summarise: we have the Musk F9H and BFR, and the Bezos BFRs (plural), all sort-of-probably self-financed and trundling along nicely and with *zero* need to assuage the politicians, and then we have SLS, slave to pork and with few obvious payloads.

In short, I wish the US Government would finance payloads, and get out of the launch business.

It is slowly heading in that direction it appears.  SpaceX and Blue Origin and their respective rockets are still in the fledgling phase and yet to fly; the SLS will probably see some use before it gets traded out for a commercial equivalent.  Most likely, if anything, we will initially see NASA finally create a blend of plans that utilize more commercial rockets supplementing SLS and Orion.  That I think will be the first step in a good direction, but again I believe the SLS will have some use.
I would advocate/prefer ditching the SLS solids, keeping the corestage but moving to Commercially-supplied liquid boosters; reusable or not.

I agree in general, although I think the biggest reason why the solids are favored is that they don't require plumbing and cryogenic needs.  The change from Block 1 to Block 1B is going to cause plenty of grief with ground hardware just to move the umbilicals higher to serve the EUS as an example.  Ultimately it will come down to what companies offer NASA as an advanced booster.
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Offline Zed_Noir

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Re: How Often can SLS launch?
« Reply #61 on: 09/17/2016 05:42 am »
I would advocate/prefer ditching the SLS solids, keeping the corestage but moving to Commercially-supplied liquid boosters; reusable or not.
I agree in general, although I think the biggest reason why the solids are favored is that they don't require plumbing and cryogenic needs.  The change from Block 1 to Block 1B is going to cause plenty of grief with ground hardware just to move the umbilicals higher to serve the EUS as an example.  Ultimately it will come down to what companies offer NASA as an advanced booster.

Think the New Glenn first stage makes a perfect strapped-on liquid booster for the SLS. There have to be a reason why Bezos chose 7 meter diameter core. ;)

Offline MATTBLAK

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Re: How Often can SLS launch?
« Reply #62 on: 09/17/2016 05:53 am »
7 meters is probably too big - would require either a new launchpad or major alterations to existing ones. Perhaps 5.4 meter boosters with as many BE-4 or other commercially supplied engines as will fit.
« Last Edit: 09/17/2016 11:24 am by MATTBLAK »
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Offline Zed_Noir

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Re: How Often can SLS launch?
« Reply #63 on: 09/17/2016 06:09 am »
7 meters is probably too big - would require either a new launchpad or major alterations to existing ones. Perhaps 5.4 meter boosters with as many BE-3 or other commercially supplied engines as will fit.
Think just the MLP have to be modified. The flame trench seems adequate at LC-39B.

Offline mike robel

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Re: How Often can SLS launch?
« Reply #64 on: 09/17/2016 01:20 pm »
This discussion makes me wonder about the existing stocks of casings for SRBs.  I think there are enough for 10 flights.  If nothing changes, then at one a year, SLS can launch until 2028.  It will be interesting to see if Congress authorizes (additional) money to develop new SRBs in about 2022, because I am sure it will take that long to develop them.

New boosters were proposed for Shuttle, but did not materialize.

Of course, I probably missed if there is any money currently allocated to advanced solid boosters nd when they expect them to come on line.

Offline Hog

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Re: How Often can SLS launch?
« Reply #65 on: 09/26/2016 05:55 pm »
This discussion makes me wonder about the existing stocks of casings for SRBs.  I think there are enough for 10 flights.  If nothing changes, then at one a year, SLS can launch until 2028.  It will be interesting to see if Congress authorizes (additional) money to develop new SRBs in about 2022, because I am sure it will take that long to develop them.

New boosters were proposed for Shuttle, but did not materialize.

Of course, I probably missed if there is any money currently allocated to advanced solid boosters nd when they expect them to come on line.
IIRC there was even talk of 5 segment solids for STS.  ISS assembly? Vandenberg Polar launches? Polar Launches from Florida via the "dogleg maneuover"?
Paul

Offline DOCinCT

Re: How Often can SLS launch?
« Reply #66 on: 10/07/2016 01:50 pm »
Courtesy of the 'Minimal Architecture for Human Journeys to Mars' thread and the Price-Baker presentation.  Until Martian surface missions happen, we may see an average of 1 SLS yearly.  Some of the dates likely will be tweaked, but the presentation itself is dated for September 14, 2016 so it is as current as can be expected.  I included the presentation itself as well, which focuses on visiting Phobos and then Mars.
It's not the average that counts.
EM-1 to EM-2  3 years  EM-2 to EM-3 18 mo?    Europa 2 years (might depend on launch windows).  It's only after that you start to see yearly launches once you get to the end of the 2020s.
The launch cadence will depend on how long it takes to manufacture a first stage core with engines.  Has that question been answered??

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