Total Members Voted: 245
Voting closed: 10/30/2017 05:15 pm
I voted both operational. I think NASA will be too far down their path to cancel SLS. I also think that BFR will just becoming operational. I think development will take longer that Elon Musk has stated. BFR will not have had a long enough track record yet to get NASA to Cancel SLS by 2027.I think there is a good chance that SLS will fade out in the 2030s after maybe a dozen flights. I think there also is a good chance that by the early 2030s the only US launch providers flying anything EELV class or larger will be SpaceX and Blue Origin. I think ULA will either dissolve or be sold to Blue Origin. I think it will be good to have the competition from the two. The other interesting part of the equation is what will the rest of the world be doing. Will Russia, Europe, China, Japan,etc try to come up with something reusable? Or will they settle for buying rides elsewhere?
It could go either way, but by default SLS is already expected to aim for 2 to 4 flights yearly...
Boeing has Michoud set up to stamp out enough stages for one SLS a year — two at most with the factory’s current manufacturing capabilities, and then only if NASA pours more money and personnel into the facility.
...so there would be a slight tilt in favor of BFR if SpaceX indeed plans to use it as heavily as planned.
Quote from: redliox on 09/30/2017 04:25 amIt could go either way, but by default SLS is already expected to aim for 2 to 4 flights yearly...So even getting up to two per year would cost more money - and that can only come from Congress.Quote...so there would be a slight tilt in favor of BFR if SpaceX indeed plans to use it as heavily as planned.Slight? It literally takes an act of Congress to fly an SLS. All SpaceX needs is to gas n' go.
This is my first attempt at a poll.