Author Topic: It'll be really hard to get to Mars. Who will get there first?  (Read 2785 times)

Offline coypu76

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NPR reporter Nell Greenfieldboyce suggests that current excitement about getting to Mars soon needs a reality check in this report:  http://www.npr.org/2015/03/17/390995619/are-humans-really-headed-to-mars-anytime-soon.

Despite much of the recent enthusiasm for mounting a mission to the Red Planet most people in Greendfieldboyce's popular audience are not aware of the extremely daunting challenges and issues with getting people to Mars and getting them back safely.

Robert Zubrin, Aerospace Engineer and head of the Mars Society is asked who he thinks has the best chance of getting to Mars.

"No one can know the future," says Zubrin, "but I would say that the strongest initiative going on right now — the one that's making visible, dynamic progress — is the SpaceX initiative."
SpaceX is the first private company to have a robotic capsule actually dock with the international space station. The firm currently delivers cargo for NASA, and may soon transport astronauts, too.
The founder of SpaceX is Elon Musk. Zubrin calls Musk "quite a person."
"He developed spacecraft for one-tenth the cost and one-third the time that NASA and the aerospace major companies have done," Zubrin points out.

More here:
http://bigthink.com/ideafeed/nasa-mars-one-or-spacex-who-has-the-best-chance-of-getting-to-mars

Offline philw1776

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It will be hard.
So the 1st requirement is the will to persevere.
Then there is the actual ability to make it so.
Therefore my choice is SpaceX since the corporate mission statement calls for colonizing Mars and they claim to have an actual Mars architecture and implementation under development.  Raptor engine & MCT architecture.

I have been reading of NASA Mars plans for decades.  Always 2 decades away.  No political support for the $.  Budget buster approaches (just look at the projected cost of an SLS launch).

I think SpaceX will get there in the early 2030s about a decade later than marketeer Musk is claiming.  I feel that NASA technology help will be critical and received.
FULL SEND!!!!

Offline Endeavour_01

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I would say a NASA/private industry partnership led by NASA in around 2035. I do believe SpaceX will play an integral part in the first Mars mission but they won't be doing it alone or leading it.

My personal thoughts on how the architecture will look like:

1. MTV (Mars Transfer Vehicle): Made up of either Bigelow modules or a Skylab II (SLS LH2 tank dry workshop) with one or 2 Exoliners for storage driven by SEP. It would be assembled using SLS or BFR or a combination of the two and launched from DRO or EML-2. After it is completed you can bring it up to the speed necessary by running around the block. Then you can launch the crew in SLS/Orion.

2. Earth Return Vehicle: Orion docked with the MTV. Once the craft is close enough to Earth Orion will detach and directly re-enter the atmosphere while the MTV is dropped off in DRO/EML-2. (My thought is that SpaceX will work more on a Mars lander and let NASA handle Earth return)

3. Lander: Using the propulsive landing heritage of Dragon SpaceX develops a deep space capable Martian lander.

4. Hab: Bigelow module probably

5. Mars Ascent Vehicle: Probably SpaceX developed. Designed to use local fuel resources and get the crew back to the MTV.
I cheer for both NASA and commercial space. For SLS, Orion, Falcon 9, Falcon Heavy, Dragon, Starship/SH, Starliner, Cygnus and all the rest!
I was blessed to see the launch of Space Shuttle Endeavour on STS-99. The launch was beyond amazing. My 8-year old mind was blown. I remember the noise and seeing the exhaust pour out of the shuttle as it lifted off. I remember staring and watching it soar while it was visible in the clear blue sky. It was one of the greatest moments of my life and I will never forget it.

Offline Robert Thompson

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# Views recapitulates Fermi Paradox.

Offline tea monster

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Yeah. SpaceX first, maybe the Russians or Chinese some time afterwards.

Going to Mars is difficult, but I don't think for a minute that it would have stymied the might of America's techno-industrial machine if they had the will to actually do it. We could have gone there in the 80's if plans had been followed through.

America has lost the will to do anything like that any more. America wants to have the pretense of a space program, but they don't want to put any money on actually sending it anywhere. The last few years has been jobs, pork and water treading. The string of paper spaceships and cancelled programs during the 90's showed us that.

Online meekGee

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Yeah. SpaceX first, maybe the Russians or Chinese some time afterwards.

Going to Mars is difficult, but I don't think for a minute that it would have stymied the might of America's techno-industrial machine if they had the will to actually do it. We could have gone there in the 80's if plans had been followed through.

America has lost the will to do anything like that any more. America wants to have the pretense of a space program, but they don't want to put any money on actually sending it anywhere. The last few years has been jobs, pork and water treading. The string of paper spaceships and cancelled programs during the 90's showed us that.

It's what happens when you win all your (significant) external battles, and then you have the leisure to let greed and corruption rule.  It's not a necessary condition, but it is sufficient.

However the awesome thing about the US is that it is, at the end of the day, in spite of all of its deficiencies, free enough for people like Musk to thrive.

Consider this.  If Musk had tried forming SpaceX in Russia, threatening the Russian aerospace industry instead of ULA, what do you think his fate would have been?

It is sad that the US space industry has deteriorated so far, but I there's more hope here (via SpaceX) for progress than there ever was.
ABCD - Always Be Counting Down

Offline Robotbeat

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Last I checked, SpaceX is American.
Chris  Whoever loves correction loves knowledge, but he who hates reproof is stupid.

To the maximum extent practicable, the Federal Government shall plan missions to accommodate the space transportation services capabilities of United States commercial providers. US law http://goo.gl/YZYNt0

Tags: Mars NPR Media Internet Zubrin 
 

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