Poll

 How much impact does Orion have for enabling or allowing human space settlement?

We are far too early on the path, so any money spent on HSF enables space settlement
14 (14.6%)
Orion will have a substantial impact for enabling human space settlement
1 (1%)
Orion will have a moderate impact for enabling human space settlement
8 (8.3%)
Orion will have a minimal impact for enabling human space settlement
70 (72.9%)
We shouldn't be engaging in space settlement - HSF is for some other purpose
3 (3.1%)

Total Members Voted: 96


Author Topic: Orion and Space Settlement  (Read 18841 times)

Offline Political Hack Wannabe

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Orion and Space Settlement
« on: 09/12/2014 02:20 pm »
Hey everyone -

So, as I was looking at one of the other polls, I had the thought that if our purpose for HSF was space settlement, it might be worth while to actually look at the various NASA programs, and see if they are actually enabling or allowing space settlement.

As promised this is the 2nd poll, focused on Orion.  You can see (and take part in) the first poll, which asks about ISS and space settlement by clicking this link.  The remaining 2 for sure are going to be SLS and Commercial Crew (I am considering ARM, but thats very much at the conceptional stage).  BTW, if you have another suggestion for other NASA programs, I would love to hear it.

FYI - I'll be staggering them over the next few days/weeks in the appropriate sections.  If you think I should include another program, feel free to mention it.  And obviously, feel free to offer up how and why you voted as you did in the comments.

Edit - because of some of the comments in this thread, I created another poll about space settlement in general, to address some of the comments raised in this thread
« Last Edit: 09/13/2014 09:40 pm by Political Hack Wannabe »
It's not democrats vs republicans, it's reality vs innumerate space cadet fantasy.

Offline Burninate

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Re: Orion and Space Settlement
« Reply #1 on: 09/12/2014 02:57 pm »
Missing:
Orion will have a severe negative impact on the progress of space settlement
Orion will have a moderate negative impact on the progress of space settlement
Orion will have a minimal negative impact on the progress of space settlement

Though this does get into highest-probability-implied-contrafactuals, which are subjective predictions.
« Last Edit: 09/12/2014 02:58 pm by Burninate »

Online jongoff

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Re: Orion and Space Settlement
« Reply #2 on: 09/12/2014 03:35 pm »
Regardless of whether it is a good tool for "exploration" (I'm skeptical), I fail to see much of a real connection between Orion and Space Settlement. Space Settlement is going to require systems that are much, much cheaper per person delivered to a planet than Orion. Personally I think it's a dead end that's going to start looking anachronistic pretty soon after CC vehicles start flying--not because LM is incompetent (it isn't) but because they were forced to build a BEO capsule as their first big manned space project with their current team, whereas SpaceX is now really on their third version of capsule. Skipping steps may sound like a quicker way to get to a capability, but in many cases there's a lot of learning and mistakes to be avoided by a more iterative development process.

~Jon

Offline bad_astra

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Re: Orion and Space Settlement
« Reply #3 on: 09/12/2014 03:36 pm »
I put minimum. I am not a pessimist, but Orion development has taken far too long (has any group ever worked this long to develop a single piece of space hardware?) and might well be overshadowed by subsequent developments.

It will probably do its job, whatever that is, but it will probably not be significant. One two two launches per year is not significant for space settlement. You couldn't settle a restroom let alone space, with it.
« Last Edit: 09/12/2014 03:37 pm by bad_astra »
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Offline veblen

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Re: Orion and Space Settlement
« Reply #4 on: 09/12/2014 04:00 pm »
NASA manages a continuously crewed space station in low earth orbit. Beyond that I know of no other connection between NASA and space "settlement". Settlement (colonizing) of Mars (or building a transportation system to Mars for settlers) is Elon Musk's goal.

Offline Political Hack Wannabe

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Re: Orion and Space Settlement
« Reply #5 on: 09/12/2014 06:07 pm »
NASA manages a continuously crewed space station in low earth orbit. Beyond that I know of no other connection between NASA and space "settlement". Settlement (colonizing) of Mars (or building a transportation system to Mars for settlers) is Elon Musk's goal.

2 presidential speeches, a national commission, and a public law suggests that settlement is in fact part of the goal. 

But YMMV
It's not democrats vs republicans, it's reality vs innumerate space cadet fantasy.

Offline SpacexULA

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Re: Orion and Space Settlement
« Reply #6 on: 09/12/2014 06:17 pm »
Orion seems like the right vehicle for the wrong decade.

Orion would have been a revolutionary vehicle if it had been green lighted after the Columbia, and base lined to fly on a Direct type offshoot of the Shuttle stack in parallel with the shuttle till the completion of the ISS.  That Orion would have been a vehicle for the history books of our children.

Unfortunately I think the Orion Capsule and the SLS will join the X-38, Ares 1-X, and DC-X as projects that us aerospace enthusiasts will remember, but main line history books and the general public 20 years from now will not.

I voted no, I think Orion will be another unfortunate project for NASA.
« Last Edit: 09/12/2014 06:18 pm by SpacexULA »
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Offline A_M_Swallow

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Re: Orion and Space Settlement
« Reply #7 on: 09/12/2014 08:34 pm »
NASA manages a continuously crewed space station in low earth orbit. Beyond that I know of no other connection between NASA and space "settlement". Settlement (colonizing) of Mars (or building a transportation system to Mars for settlers) is Elon Musk's goal.

2 presidential speeches, a national commission, and a public law suggests that settlement is in fact part of the goal. 

But YMMV

They are warning that Orion and SLS may be investments in managerial ego.  Congress being the top management of NASA.
http://boom-qa.com/managerial-ego

Online jongoff

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Re: Orion and Space Settlement
« Reply #8 on: 09/12/2014 10:36 pm »
NASA manages a continuously crewed space station in low earth orbit. Beyond that I know of no other connection between NASA and space "settlement". Settlement (colonizing) of Mars (or building a transportation system to Mars for settlers) is Elon Musk's goal.

2 presidential speeches, a national commission, and a public law suggests that settlement is in fact part of the goal. 

But YMMV

While those speeches, the A-com and the public law say the right thing, I don't see a lot of evidence of buy-in from the rest of the government. Even the Executive Branch's commitment to settlement seems... questionable at best.

~Jon

Offline ThereIWas3

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Re: Orion and Space Settlement
« Reply #9 on: 09/12/2014 10:40 pm »

2 presidential speeches, a national commission, and a public law suggests that settlement is in fact part of the goal. 

But YMMV

No, I think exploration is the goal.  Settlement is not NASA's business.  In fact, before the name change from NACA to NASA, flight of any kind (air or space) was not their job.  They just did research in technologies.  And I think that will be their role in the future regarding HSF, largely due to congressional meddling.  "NASA Spaceflight" may become an oxymoron.

Offline Political Hack Wannabe

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Re: Orion and Space Settlement
« Reply #10 on: 09/13/2014 06:19 am »
So a few comments

1)  I wasn't saying it was NASA's job to settle space.  I was very clear with my question - I asked how much impact does Orion have for enabling or allowing human settlement.  The reason for that langauge is that enabling and allowing are not the same thing as actually causing.  For example - the US west could not have been populated without certain things happening, such as the development of transcontinental railroads, or things like the steel plow.  But they didn't actual cause the actual westward expansion, in and of themselves.  By the same token, since it does actually operating in space, it is quite possible that Orion will have some sort of impact on space settlement.  That doesn't mean that its NASA's job to settle space, just that developments from the Orion spacecraft will enable or allow space settlement (those statements are not equal)

2)  Regarding commitment from NASA/Executive Branch/US government writ large - again, it doesn't actually matter for purposes of the question.  Somebody may not buy into a core belief when starting a project, but then find out that the project does align and validate the core belief (there are many scientific theories that are like this)

3)  I would actually be interested in a longer conversation what exploration is (because I tend to think that people use it, but its a meaningless word when it comes to space), but then we would be getting off topic, and when this topic has been raised in the past, it really hasn't attracted attention on the NSF forms (at least, when I've raised it - again YMMV_
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Offline jtrame

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Re: Orion and Space Settlement
« Reply #11 on: 09/13/2014 11:56 am »
We are way too early on the path, but Orion will contribute in the same way the Apollo expeditions will contribute to the eventual settlement of the Moon. We know what the conditions are on the ground, we can design based on answers provided by Apollo.  We can design habitats, we know that vehicles can work in the environment.   We know a lot about the available resources.
 
Exploration continues in the 21st century, settlement begins in the 22nd century.  Too many questions need answers, like radiation shielding, ISRU techniques, etc.  Heck, rotational AG has not even been studied yet. 

It's more likely a long path that eventually produces settlements on the Moon, or on Mars, Ceres, or space outposts.  Even though we'd like to see it happen in our lifetime, our job is to lay the foundation.  Orion, if augmented with suitable habitats and landers, is a small step in that direction.  It can contribute some of the answers.
 


Offline Cherokee43v6

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Re: Orion and Space Settlement
« Reply #12 on: 09/13/2014 01:30 pm »
I put minimal.

While governments in the past have often driven exploration, settlement is a whole other matter.  Settlement is generally an economic/socially driven phenomena.  For settlement to occur, there must be either an economically driven motive, such as the various 'gold rushes' that drew people seeking to make their fortune to places like Central America (conquistadors), California, the Yukon, etc; or there must be a societal driver, such as the Protestant migration to the New England colonies in the 1600/1700's; or some combination thereof.

Orion and SLS fit neither of these descriptions (in fact, not even the SpaceX DragonV2 does either).  At best, the Orion will be the equivalent of the HMS Beagle or the HMS Endeavour.  Government funded explorations that went interesting places and learned interesting things, but really only served to excite those who were already prone to emigrate.

Remember also that governments have absolutely no interest in sending constituents/subjects/taxpayers somewhere outside of their ability to enforce the payments of appropriate duties.  With the ability to claim territory in space restricted by treaty or by the current perception of such, even such things as the 'royal charters' that backed the establishment of the American Colonies would be extremely difficult to put into place.  At least until such time as a government establishes both the ability to enforce its will at such a remote location and the will to do so.  Again, this is not something that Orion would be capable of.

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Offline Nibb31

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Re: Orion and Space Settlement
« Reply #13 on: 09/13/2014 02:19 pm »
"Settlement" as in "Colonization" is so far in the realm of science-fiction that it has absolutely no bearing on today's reality. It is not happening in the foreseeable future, and I doubt that Orion will still be flying when it does. Space is not the American Wild West, so any culture-centric analogies based on 19th Century history do not apply.

Offline Lar

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Re: Orion and Space Settlement
« Reply #14 on: 09/13/2014 02:37 pm »
"Settlement" as in "Colonization" is so far in the realm of science-fiction that it has absolutely no bearing on today's reality. It is not happening in the foreseeable future, and I doubt that Orion will still be flying when it does. Space is not the American Wild West, so any culture-centric analogies based on 19th Century history do not apply.

That is a fairly commonly held perception. But not everyone agrees with you. Some people with billions to allocate seem to be working on things directly in contravention of that view, and that are a lot closer in than the "forseeable future".

Time will tell. 

That said, this poll is flawed, as it doesn't have any negative options. I think Orion is more likely to be a hindrance than any sort of aid.
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
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Offline Robert Thompson

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Re: Orion and Space Settlement
« Reply #15 on: 09/13/2014 09:17 pm »
Mass recovered : Mass launched ~ 1% at most.


Online redliox

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Re: Orion and Space Settlement
« Reply #16 on: 09/19/2014 10:30 am »
Looking at Orion itself and it's abilities...I voted minimal for good reason.  Sure, it will do as good a job as the old Apollo Command Module, better even with technology's help.  However all it can do is dock and orbit...not much else.

If you look at every scheme beyond the initial 3 flights on SLS...even ARM...supplemental vehicles are called upon.  Deep space stations, habitat modules, landers for either Mars or Luna, and a little EVA pod are all in the various schemes; each is a handy idea...but once again it becomes a project with no set date and no destination except limbo.  With luck, at least a lander will be developed next, but since we're talking about Orion itself...

It's simply a shuttlecraft, no more or less.  We'll always have need of such a vehicle, but I would wager in time (say 30 years time if not better) commercial vehicles will reach throughout cislunar space and take over the role as they've begun in LEO.  So Orion serves a purpose, for the time being, and may serve as a reference model for crew transfer vehicles (that would be a better title than an awkward 'Multipurpose-Crew-Vehicle').

In short: cute, but won't be impressed until I see something that sprouts legs.
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Offline Patchouli

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Re: Orion and Space Settlement
« Reply #17 on: 09/20/2014 02:54 am »
I went with any money spent on HSF will help space settlement which is true.

Just some things will help more then others.

If Orion and SLS fly as intended they will build experience in the operation of HLVs and deep space flight.
STS though considered a failure by some did build a lot of useful experience in building structures in space and operating a RLV.

The commercial crew and cargo programs will likely have a larger impact then Orion and SLS.
« Last Edit: 09/21/2014 07:14 am by Patchouli »

Offline rusty

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Re: Orion and Space Settlement
« Reply #18 on: 09/20/2014 10:00 am »
I don't mean to nitpick semantics, but your definition of "space settlement" is important to determining Orion's impact.

1- "Settlement" as in "Colonization" - in the words of Nibb. No impact as colonization, or permanent habitation, won't occur within the Asteroid Belt and probably not in my lifetime.

2- Settlement as in a temporarily manned or rotated staffing surface structure; Orion is imperative as a means to transit from Earth to Lunar or Mars Orbit. No offering or proposal from Russia, Boeing, China or SpaceX can complete this task. If we are to establish Lunar or Martian outposts/stations of scientific discovery and development, Orion is our one and only ride. No Orion, no future beyond LEO.

3- Settlement as in a temporarily manned or rotated staffing in LEO, as in the ISS which is technically a "settlement in space"; Orion isn't really needed, nor is any LV development of the last half-century. Soyuz is as good as Dragon, so no need for Orion.

Offline Darkseraph

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Re: Orion and Space Settlement
« Reply #19 on: 09/20/2014 10:22 am »
I believe its a great vehicle for the mission it was intended for, which is 7 day long lunar sorties. Basically Apollo on steroids. If that is what you want to do, this is your vehicle. For settlement, no. It doesn't do anything we haven't done before and it doesn't do it cheaper. If you intend for people to stay long times on the moon and use its resources, you don't need a vehicle this big (or if you have a vehicle this big, at least put more people on it).
"For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled." R.P.Feynman

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