Why exactly is this thread needed??? Any SpaceX updates are going to be about Falcon or Dragon anyway.
Regarding Boeing and the like developing reusability:I think over the next year we will see projects start up at all the various large rocket companies that start as feasibility studies into various ways of developing their own reusable technology.A few might decide it is not worth it yet, and a few will decide that since they were thinking of developing a new rocket anyway, they will blank-slate a new reusable rocket similar to the f9, but probably a different size. Most companies will remain a few years behind SpaceX due to their aggressive R&D, but after 10-15 years almost no one will have willfully chosen not to integrate SpaceX's technology refinements to better their own line of products. Especially if the stars keep aligning in SpaceX's favor.
Quote from: Dudely on 08/07/2014 12:23 pmRegarding Boeing and the like developing reusability:I think over the next year we will see projects start up at all the various large rocket companies that start as feasibility studies into various ways of developing their own reusable technology.A few might decide it is not worth it yet, and a few will decide that since they were thinking of developing a new rocket anyway, they will blank-slate a new reusable rocket similar to the f9, but probably a different size. Most companies will remain a few years behind SpaceX due to their aggressive R&D, but after 10-15 years almost no one will have willfully chosen not to integrate SpaceX's technology refinements to better their own line of products. Especially if the stars keep aligning in SpaceX's favor.I quite agree with the main thrust of your post.However, keep in mind that it is quite often not the first developer of new technology that stays out in front for decades in an industry. Oftentimes, the quick follower, one who is able to see that which has (now) proven to be possible technologically, will put some twist on it to perhaps improve it, or build it more efficiently, or market it better, etc.I am very supportive of a NewSpace endeavors that look to change the economic model for space access; and SpaceX seems at present to be the poster child for getting 'er done, bringing down prices, while developing some rad new technology. But others will follow SpaceX' success, as the market in space transport grows over time.I think SpaceX will have quite an early run of it. But competitors will want to enter the market if ordinary commercial profits can be made in this new flavor of an industry. And if the institutional environment is not excessively limited by government regulation, competitors will actually enter that market. And some will succeed.
However, keep in mind that it is quite often not the first developer of new technology that stays out in front for decades in an industry. Oftentimes, the quick follower, one who is able to see that which has (now) proven to be possible technologically, will put some twist on it to perhaps improve it, or build it more efficiently, or market it better, etc.
Quote from: Llian Rhydderch on 08/07/2014 04:14 pmHowever, keep in mind that it is quite often not the first developer of new technology that stays out in front for decades in an industry. Oftentimes, the quick follower, one who is able to see that which has (now) proven to be possible technologically, will put some twist on it to perhaps improve it, or build it more efficiently, or market it better, etc.If our goal is to expand humanity out into space, then we certainly need more companies following in the footsteps of SpaceX and challenging SpaceX by continuing to lower the cost to access space. So I hope you are right......................I'm not trying to be pessimistic, but I'm not sure if there is a known player that can step up to the challenge. But I would love to be wrong on this because we need the space transportation sector to be diverse.And just as SpaceX came "out of nowhere" 12 years ago, there is always the chance that a new entrant will be just as disruptive as SpaceX has been. Let's hope for that too.
I fully agree. Competition would be good. However that would have to come with a really novel idea, not by following SpaceX. Just copying them and beating their prices seems hard as SpaceX is already very efficient, it seems.
On the other hand, if SpaceX is as successful (even to a degree) as their ambitions... still very far from proven to be a reality... they might just be like Amazon. You know, first serious online retailer, competing against all of the entrenched brick-and-mortar giants of retail. Online retail was unproven at the time and there were huge claims made about it, which took a long time to actually materialize, with a lot of boom and bust companies littering the path to get there. Where are the Amazon "fast followers" that are competing with them now that Amazon has proved the model? What we have are some preexisting retail chains with their own online stores, but none of them are in the same league as Amazon, and many of them are struggling to stay relevant.
Quote from: Coastal Ron on 08/08/2014 04:11 amQuote from: Llian Rhydderch on 08/07/2014 04:14 pmHowever, keep in mind that it is quite often not the first developer of new technology that stays out in front for decades in an industry. Oftentimes, the quick follower, one who is able to see that which has (now) proven to be possible technologically, will put some twist on it to perhaps improve it, or build it more efficiently, or market it better, etc.If our goal is to expand humanity out into space, then we certainly need more companies following in the footsteps of SpaceX and challenging SpaceX by continuing to lower the cost to access space. So I hope you are right......................I'm not trying to be pessimistic, but I'm not sure if there is a known player that can step up to the challenge. But I would love to be wrong on this because we need the space transportation sector to be diverse.And just as SpaceX came "out of nowhere" 12 years ago, there is always the chance that a new entrant will be just as disruptive as SpaceX has been. Let's hope for that too.I fully agree. Competition would be good. However that would have to come with a really novel idea, not by following SpaceX. Just copying them and beating their prices seems hard as SpaceX is already very efficient, it seems.
I think over the next year we will see projects start up at all the various large rocket companies that start as feasibility studies into various ways of developing their own reusable technology.
Quote from: guckyfan on 08/08/2014 05:50 amI fully agree. Competition would be good. However that would have to come with a really novel idea, not by following SpaceX. Just copying them and beating their prices seems hard as SpaceX is already very efficient, it seems.FedX followed by UPS. Former started when there was no market for overnight deliveries (actually, there was a market, but status quo thought it impossible). High cost of entry business...Concept/market demonstrated.Latter took efficiency model and ran with it. And world of business changed -- overnight.
FedX followed by UPS. Former started when there was no market for overnight deliveries (actually, there was a market, but status quo thought it impossible). High cost of entry business...Concept/market demonstrated.Latter took efficiency model and ran with it. And world of business changed -- overnight.
SpaceX @SpaceXLast week’s launch marks 60 Merlin 1D engines designed & built by SpaceX that have powered Falcon 9 to space. Woot!
And just as SpaceX came "out of nowhere" 12 years ago, there is always the chance that a new entrant will be just as disruptive as SpaceX has been. Let's hope for that too.
<snip>I think Reaction Engines stand a good chance, certainly in terms of LEO stuff. Once we do start colonizing other planets, it will be hard in my opinion for one company to dominate any more, because resource limitations will drop like crazy.