I'll say this much, I've never known so many people act like they are falling over each other to join BO. Sadly, if understandably, it's because they are offering incredible salaries and benefits - easily the best in the business...."by a massive margin".
IBM, GE, others tried to push into the personal computing revolution...
QuoteIf you're (Boeing/LM) so good, why not spin out (as is done in Silicon Valley - Cisco did this a lot) - a startup, co-financed with venture, conquer a part of the SC space, and acquire it again back into the main company. High capital reuse, keeps company culture end to end, secures inaccessible parts of the market, and you don't risk anything but your initial stake. When it works, you own all that market, and increase your market cap.More likely is their buying one or more of the players in the game just as they gobbled up the space launch and spacecraft players. That only reduced competition, advancing the technology approximately zero. Once the satellite industry enters a Silicon Valley-like development cycle, lumbering old school companies are in trouble. IBM, GE, others tried to push into the personal computing revolution...New players like Blue and some of the small launcher/small satellite start-ups will own chunks of the field if history is any indication. Figuring out who and how is the challenge. Silicon Valley in the 1970s/80s all over again.
If you're (Boeing/LM) so good, why not spin out (as is done in Silicon Valley - Cisco did this a lot) - a startup, co-financed with venture, conquer a part of the SC space, and acquire it again back into the main company. High capital reuse, keeps company culture end to end, secures inaccessible parts of the market, and you don't risk anything but your initial stake. When it works, you own all that market, and increase your market cap.
Quote from: AncientU on 08/19/2017 03:28 amIBM, GE, others tried to push into the personal computing revolution...Just picking a nit, the IBM PC was revolutionary (despite having basically no new/revolutionary tech) since it legitimized personal computers, and the architecture it introduced is more or less still in use today. So your assertion isn't quite right. IBM shaped it.The analogy is that if a big player gives a small player legitimacy here, things change. This is happening with SES and others, and their relationship with SpaceX.PS: NOT an official IBM spokesperson, they'd be daft to make me one!
Quote from: Lar on 08/23/2017 01:24 pmQuote from: AncientU on 08/19/2017 03:28 amIBM, GE, others tried to push into the personal computing revolution...Just picking a nit, the IBM PC was revolutionary (despite having basically no new/revolutionary tech) since it legitimized personal computers, and the architecture it introduced is more or less still in use today. So your assertion isn't quite right. IBM shaped it.The analogy is that if a big player gives a small player legitimacy here, things change. This is happening with SES and others, and their relationship with SpaceX.PS: NOT an official IBM spokesperson, they'd be daft to make me one!'Shaped' is quite different than leading or maintaining a substantial piece of the market. Not to dis IBM, but they weren't sufficiently agile to innovate and lead as the personal computer market took off... and playing catch-up is a tough game. I was with GE when they looked into this technology and decided it had no significant future. General Motors introduced electric vehicles before the market took off and junked their efforts as a non-starter. The Bigs get it wrong, IMO, because they cannot see a world in which their tech isn't... big (A.K.A, de-legitify alternate approaches).
I believe it is the failure to concentrate on the business items that can cause the business case to fail. SpaceX, and I believe BO, are both putting the emphasis into the correct areas to be able to make the operational costs be much lower for their partial reusable vehicles than any other expendable vehicle can possibly achieve. SpaceX did this by way of an evolutionary bootstrap. But BO since it has "excess" funds can go the direct route to the end item (well at least the first step the reusable booster stage) on the first launch. They would then "iron" out any faults during the short <10 flights test/initial operations phase. Then they would go on to the next step of a fully reusable larger vehicle. Much like SpaceX is trying to do right now. Both would be attempting a direct implementation of a fully resemble vehicle after gaining experience with the partial booster reusable vehicles.
Quote from: oldAtlas_Eguy on 08/24/2017 05:14 pmI believe it is the failure to concentrate on the business items that can cause the business case to fail. SpaceX, and I believe BO, are both putting the emphasis into the correct areas to be able to make the operational costs be much lower for their partial reusable vehicles than any other expendable vehicle can possibly achieve. SpaceX did this by way of an evolutionary bootstrap. But BO since it has "excess" funds can go the direct route to the end item (well at least the first step the reusable booster stage) on the first launch. They would then "iron" out any faults during the short <10 flights test/initial operations phase. Then they would go on to the next step of a fully reusable larger vehicle. Much like SpaceX is trying to do right now. Both would be attempting a direct implementation of a fully resemble vehicle after gaining experience with the partial booster reusable vehicles.So you're saying that Blue Origin is less "gradatim" than SpaceX is?
Quote from: AncientU on 08/24/2017 01:04 pmQuote from: Lar on 08/23/2017 01:24 pmQuote from: AncientU on 08/19/2017 03:28 amIBM, GE, others tried to push into the personal computing revolution...Just picking a nit, the IBM PC was revolutionary (despite having basically no new/revolutionary tech) since it legitimized personal computers, and the architecture it introduced is more or less still in use today. So your assertion isn't quite right. IBM shaped it.The analogy is that if a big player gives a small player legitimacy here, things change. This is happening with SES and others, and their relationship with SpaceX.PS: NOT an official IBM spokesperson, they'd be daft to make me one!'Shaped' is quite different than leading or maintaining a substantial piece of the market. Not to dis IBM, but they weren't sufficiently agile to innovate and lead as the personal computer market took off... and playing catch-up is a tough game. I was with GE when they looked into this technology and decided it had no significant future. General Motors introduced electric vehicles before the market took off and junked their efforts as a non-starter. The Bigs get it wrong, IMO, because they cannot see a world in which their tech isn't... big (A.K.A, de-legitify alternate approaches).There is a valuable lesson to learn from IBM and the PC. I was there and I admit my bias... but I think your analysis misses the mark.IBM came in late. But when IBM came in, all of a sudden, a hobbyist thing that was growing slowly (and maybe had just gotten to the knee in the growth curve) got supercharged, and super legitimate. Big customers fell all over each other to put IBM PCs or XTs or ATs on everyone's desk. And IBM made MS-DOS, and later, Windows, happen. Microsoft became a success thanks to IBM. The market growth and sales growth in the first 5 years after the introduction of the IBM PC was phenomenal. IBM was probably caught off guard at first, as the PC came out of a skunkworks (a few rogue/renegade employees that got some leeway made it happen... ) This in part explains some of the compromises and even bad decisions around the bus, the processor, the memory architecture, how DOS worked, etc. IBM scrambled to catch up... with itself.IBM was on top though. Clear market leader and standard setter. And IBMs legitimization made a lot of other companies very successful in the third party market. Apple, who arguably was the company that caused the nascent knee in place when IBM blew things wide open, was in dire straits. It took them a while to recover. The Mac was their savior product. (Lisa was too expensive)But what happened? Why isn't IBM still in this business? IBM got complacent, and the business got commoditized. The PS/2 architecture was an attempt to recapture the mantle, but it was already too late for desktops and luggables. The clone PC companies had already blown past IBM. The Thinkpad was another attempt to recapture the mantle and it did very well ... IBM was again shaping the market but this time for laptops... however it did not last. IBM eventually exited the business almost completely, one segment at a time. (I type this on a Thinkpad. Made by Lenovo).The lessons here- Sometimes when the dog catches the bus, the dog will have no idea how to actually exploit that. - Complacency is dangerous. Being on top this year is no guarantee of success year after next.- Your competitors are not incompetent. Betting that they will fail is a losing strategy.- No one is too big to fail in a market, unless they have government propping them up- Markets morph and you have to change. Apple reinvented itself several times, after all.I am sure that both Musk and Bezos have studied this and other business stories of the past, and have drawn the right conclusions.So to dismiss the very profound effect IBM had on this market is to miss valuable lessons.
Quote from: Lar on 08/25/2017 03:52 pm... --- 8< lots of nested trimming for mme's ADHD addled brain 8< --- ...There is a valuable lesson to learn from IBM and the PC. I was there and I admit my bias... but I think your analysis misses the mark....The lessons here- Sometimes when the dog catches the bus, the dog will have no idea how to actually exploit that. - Complacency is dangerous. Being on top this year is no guarantee of success year after next.- Your competitors are not incompetent. Betting that they will fail is a losing strategy.- No one is too big to fail in a market, unless they have government propping them up- Markets morph and you have to change. Apple reinvented itself several times, after all....What helped undermine IBM's position in the PC market though was that PC's were (are) collections of components made by lots of different parties, and integrated into a system using standardized interfaces and then is capable of running a vendor agnostic operating system. This drastically reduced the barriers to entry to the business and drove down profit margins.Now, from what I see in the rocket business, is the complete opposite situation. The launch business is getting more vertically integrated, not less. Everyone getting started has to come up with their own propulsion, avionics, press system, airframe design, etc., and then have to build and maintain launch facilities or try to share those facilities with other providers. TL, DR: PC's are LEGO's, rockets are not.
... --- 8< lots of nested trimming for mme's ADHD addled brain 8< --- ...There is a valuable lesson to learn from IBM and the PC. I was there and I admit my bias... but I think your analysis misses the mark....The lessons here- Sometimes when the dog catches the bus, the dog will have no idea how to actually exploit that. - Complacency is dangerous. Being on top this year is no guarantee of success year after next.- Your competitors are not incompetent. Betting that they will fail is a losing strategy.- No one is too big to fail in a market, unless they have government propping them up- Markets morph and you have to change. Apple reinvented itself several times, after all....
What helped undermine IBM's position in the PC market though was that PC's were (are) collections of components made by lots of different parties, and integrated into a system using standardized interfaces and then is capable of running a vendor agnostic operating system. This drastically reduced the barriers to entry to the business and drove down profit margins.Now, from what I see in the rocket business, is the complete opposite situation. The launch business is getting more vertically integrated, not less. Everyone getting started has to come up with their own propulsion, avionics, press system, airframe design, etc., and then have to build and maintain launch facilities or try to share those facilities with other providers.
TL, DR: PC's are LEGO's, rockets are not.
We're not talking about OrbitalATK here but they are notorious (in a good way, they make money) for putting together systems from disparate components... If anyone is disproving the "rockets are not LEGO elements" mantra, it's them....If the "vertical integration is the secret sauce" camp is right, they're in for a lot of pain... SIs may not survive. SpaceX and Blue are both exceedingly vertically integrated (although we may be guessing a bit about Blue) so at the first order of analysis, this isn't a business strategy differentiator that gives one a leg up over the other. BUT, SpaceX may be more "good enough" and Blue may be more "get it right, not just good enough"... which is easier for the second guy, as long as they don't dawdle TOO much.
I wouldn't be surprised that within five years that Blue Origin and SpaceX would merge. The catalyst that would go beyond their egos and varied visions to joining up would be that both would be both struggling; SpaceX with BFR, and Blue with New Glenn and (New Armstrong?). Their combined resources, money and assets would be an interesting mix, with each assisting the other to come out with a comprehensive space strategy and fleet and a choke hold on the launching industry. Already, both are poised to make every other rocket and space agency obsolete, so one will be stronger than two.To me, both are businessmen, and both, ultimately, may be a better mix than most would think.
It seems to me that the BFR/BFS design at making NG DOA or soon after. It fulfills the NG market with full reusability.