Quote from: Cog_in_the_machine on 03/10/2010 04:30 pmAnd I thought I was a pessimist about the future OV I want commercial spaceflight. Anyone in this industry should. I do not subscribe to either of the "extremes" with regard to this issue. However, the current "lack of plan" and the above is not pessisism, it is realism based on knowledge and experience.
And I thought I was a pessimist about the future OV
Well idk about your estimates about the financial overruns, but given that such programs always run into problems like that it's probably inevitable. Still the overruns might not be so severe.And the lack of plan is a concern I have as well. Presently this new direction is a budget and no concrete strategy built around it, which means people tend to read into it what they want - it's the dawn of a new age of space exploration or it's the end of US HSF as we know it. Hopefully they will hammer out the details by the 15th of april so we know what's to come of all this.
Well idk about your estimates about the financial overruns, but given that such programs always run into problems like that it's probably inevitable. Still the overruns might not be so severe.
Quote from: Cog_in_the_machine on 03/10/2010 04:40 pmWell idk about your estimates about the financial overruns, but given that such programs always run into problems like that it's probably inevitable. Still the overruns might not be so severe.According to the Obama Budget, the CRS contract needs a 62% increase, only two years in.That is the only solid data point regarding cost overruns for the New.Space community so far.As indicators go, I doubt anyone can see it as a favourable one.Ross.
The added 62% is for added missions or tests that aren't there right now, right? How is that a cost overrun?
Quote from: Cog_in_the_machine on 03/10/2010 04:40 pmWell idk about your estimates about the financial overruns, but given that such programs always run into problems like that it's probably inevitable. Still the overruns might not be so severe."Hope is not a plan"
Quote from: OV-106 on 03/10/2010 04:43 pmQuote from: Cog_in_the_machine on 03/10/2010 04:40 pmWell idk about your estimates about the financial overruns, but given that such programs always run into problems like that it's probably inevitable. Still the overruns might not be so severe."Hope is not a plan"How would a "commercial" cost overrun be different than a "government" one? I think they might be lower simply because the commercial folks will be trying as hard as they can to keep them low. That's how they're going to be competitive on the market - lower prices.
New.Space likes Obama's budget plan primarily because it removes any chance of a Shuttle-Derived system being competition.Ross.
Quote from: Cog_in_the_machine on 03/10/2010 05:00 pmQuote from: OV-106 on 03/10/2010 04:43 pmQuote from: Cog_in_the_machine on 03/10/2010 04:40 pmWell idk about your estimates about the financial overruns, but given that such programs always run into problems like that it's probably inevitable. Still the overruns might not be so severe."Hope is not a plan"How would a "commercial" cost overrun be different than a "government" one? I think they might be lower simply because the commercial folks will be trying as hard as they can to keep them low. That's how they're going to be competitive on the market - lower prices.So define for me how this private/public partnership is going to work? What role will NASA end up playing? What requirements will be levied on them? I could go on.But, I bet you can't answer any of that. No worries, no one else can either because it is still being defined. Therefore no one can say what the costs around it will be.
So define for me how this private/public partnership is going to work? What role will NASA end up playing? What requirements will be levied on them? I could go on.
But, I bet you can't answer any of that. No worries, no one else can either because it is still being defined. Therefore no one can say what the costs around it will be.
How would a "commercial" cost overrun be different than a "government" one?
Quote from: Robotbeat on 03/10/2010 04:56 pmThe added 62% is for added missions or tests that aren't there right now, right? How is that a cost overrun?Incorrect.That is an increase to cover the existing contract requirements for 12 deliveries to ISS using Space-X and 8 missions using Orbital.The extra stuff is covered on a different budget line item.Ross.
Quote from: OV-106 on 03/10/2010 05:02 pmSo define for me how this private/public partnership is going to work? What role will NASA end up playing? What requirements will be levied on them? I could go on.They'll serve a regulatory function for the companies and still conduct science and exploration missions by purchasing their services to get to LEO. Least that's the goal.Quote from: OV-106 on 03/10/2010 05:02 pmBut, I bet you can't answer any of that. No worries, no one else can either because it is still being defined. Therefore no one can say what the costs around it will be. I can't tell you what will happen for the simple reason that I can't see in the future. All we're doing is speculating at the moment.
Quote from: Cog_in_the_machine on 03/10/2010 05:00 pmHow would a "commercial" cost overrun be different than a "government" one?The only real difference is in the way it is "sold" to the Congress and to the Tax-Payers.Some companies get it with blessings. Others get complained at for the same thing.Unsurprisingly, the blessing/blame thing is typically based on the agenda of the person doing the talking.Ross.
Quote from: Cog_in_the_machine on 03/10/2010 05:07 pmQuote from: OV-106 on 03/10/2010 05:02 pmSo define for me how this private/public partnership is going to work? What role will NASA end up playing? What requirements will be levied on them? I could go on.They'll serve a regulatory function for the companies and still conduct science and exploration missions by purchasing their services to get to LEO. Least that's the goal.Quote from: OV-106 on 03/10/2010 05:02 pmBut, I bet you can't answer any of that. No worries, no one else can either because it is still being defined. Therefore no one can say what the costs around it will be. I can't tell you what will happen for the simple reason that I can't see in the future. All we're doing is speculating at the moment.Ohhh. So NASA is going to become the FAA of space and "regulate" all the companies going out and doing spaceflight. I see now. Perhaps you are speculating. I'm not. I'm going off of first hand knowledge.