Author Topic: Lawmakers produce Bill to extend shuttle to 2015, utilize CxP, advance HLV  (Read 300216 times)

Offline Cog_in_the_machine

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Well idk about your estimates about the financial overruns, but given that such programs always run into problems like that it's probably inevitable. Still the overruns might not be so severe.

And the lack of a plan is a concern I have as well. Presently this new direction is a budget and no concrete strategy built around it, which means people tend to read into it what they want - it's the dawn of a new age of space exploration or it's the end of US HSF as we know it. Hopefully they will hammer out the details by the 15th of april so we know what's to come of all this.
« Last Edit: 03/10/2010 04:42 pm by Cog_in_the_machine »
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Offline FinalFrontier

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And I thought I was a pessimist about the future OV :)

I want commercial spaceflight.  Anyone in this industry should.  I do not subscribe to either of the "extremes" with regard to this issue.

However, the current "lack of plan" and the above is not pessisism, it is realism based on knowledge and experience. 
Very well said.
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Offline FinalFrontier

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Well idk about your estimates about the financial overruns, but given that such programs always run into problems like that it's probably inevitable. Still the overruns might not be so severe.

And the lack of plan is a concern I have as well. Presently this new direction is a budget and no concrete strategy built around it, which means people tend to read into it what they want - it's the dawn of a new age of space exploration or it's the end of US HSF as we know it. Hopefully they will hammer out the details by the 15th of april so we know what's to come of all this.
As Ross said, if the folks in congress don't rally around one point or idea (like the KBH bill) then obama will simply say: what you got a better idea? that you can all agree on? no? didn't think so. But I have faith.....albeit little faith at this point.......
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Offline Namechange User

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Well idk about your estimates about the financial overruns, but given that such programs always run into problems like that it's probably inevitable. Still the overruns might not be so severe.


"Hope is not a plan"
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Offline kraisee

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Well idk about your estimates about the financial overruns, but given that such programs always run into problems like that it's probably inevitable. Still the overruns might not be so severe.

According to the Obama Budget, the CRS contract needs a 62% increase, only two years in.

That is the only solid data point regarding cost overruns for the New.Space community so far.

As indicators go, it is not a favourable one.

Ross.
« Last Edit: 03/10/2010 04:49 pm by kraisee »
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Offline FinalFrontier

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Well idk about your estimates about the financial overruns, but given that such programs always run into problems like that it's probably inevitable. Still the overruns might not be so severe.

According to the Obama Budget, the CRS contract needs a 62% increase, only two years in.

That is the only solid data point regarding cost overruns for the New.Space community so far.

As indicators go, I doubt anyone can see it as a favourable one.

Ross.

Which is why new space ought to realize that this budget is worse for them not better in the long term.
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Offline kraisee

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New.Space likes Obama's budget plan primarily because it removes any chance of a Shuttle-Derived system being competition.

Ross.
"The meek shall inherit the Earth -- the rest of us will go to the stars"
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Offline Robotbeat

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The added 62% is for added missions or tests that aren't there right now, right? How is that a cost overrun?
Chris  Whoever loves correction loves knowledge, but he who hates reproof is stupid.

To the maximum extent practicable, the Federal Government shall plan missions to accommodate the space transportation services capabilities of United States commercial providers. US law http://goo.gl/YZYNt0

Offline Namechange User

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The added 62% is for added missions or tests that aren't there right now, right? How is that a cost overrun?

It clearly states it meant to reduce risk by adding additional testing.  Trust me, they are not doing this because everything is rosy and they want to just delay it for some reason.
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Offline Cog_in_the_machine

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Well idk about your estimates about the financial overruns, but given that such programs always run into problems like that it's probably inevitable. Still the overruns might not be so severe.


"Hope is not a plan"

How would a "commercial" cost overrun be different than a "government" one? I think they might be lower simply because the commercial folks will be trying as hard as they can to keep them low. That's how they're going to be competitive on the market after all - lower prices.
« Last Edit: 03/10/2010 05:01 pm by Cog_in_the_machine »
^^ Warning! Contains opinions. ^^ 

Offline Namechange User

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Well idk about your estimates about the financial overruns, but given that such programs always run into problems like that it's probably inevitable. Still the overruns might not be so severe.


"Hope is not a plan"

How would a "commercial" cost overrun be different than a "government" one? I think they might be lower simply because the commercial folks will be trying as hard as they can to keep them low. That's how they're going to be competitive on the market - lower prices.

So define for me how this private/public partnership is going to work.  What role will NASA end up playing?  What requirements will be levied on them?  I could go on.

But, I bet you can't answer any of that.  No worries, no one else can either because it is still being defined.  Therefore no one can say what the costs around it will be. 
« Last Edit: 03/10/2010 05:04 pm by OV-106 »
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Offline FinalFrontier

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New.Space likes Obama's budget plan primarily because it removes any chance of a Shuttle-Derived system being competition.

Ross.
And they fail to realize that it also removes any hope of any exploration. And that it prepares NASA for its execution. And that both of those things would actually result in a huge LOSS of buisness in the long term. Seem like boeing sees the truth though, and I think Spacex does too. Remember that Elon stated before that he thought NASA should have a crew vehicle and launcher that work ALONG SIDE of companies like his.
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Offline kraisee

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The added 62% is for added missions or tests that aren't there right now, right? How is that a cost overrun?

Incorrect.

That is an increase to cover the existing contract requirements for 12 deliveries to ISS using Space-X and 8 missions using Orbital.

The extra stuff is covered on a different budget line item.

Ross.
"The meek shall inherit the Earth -- the rest of us will go to the stars"
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Offline FinalFrontier

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Well idk about your estimates about the financial overruns, but given that such programs always run into problems like that it's probably inevitable. Still the overruns might not be so severe.


"Hope is not a plan"

How would a "commercial" cost overrun be different than a "government" one? I think they might be lower simply because the commercial folks will be trying as hard as they can to keep them low. That's how they're going to be competitive on the market - lower prices.

So define for me how this private/public partnership is going to work?  What role will NASA end up playing?  What requirements will be levied on them?  I could go on.

But, I bet you can't answer any of that.  No worries, no one else can either because it is still being defined.  Therefore no one can say what the costs around it will be. 
NASA would still end up footing the bill.  Lol, people don't seem to remember that you have to PAY commercial companies for things you cannot just have them DO something. Add to that the fact that NASA cannot FORCE them to do anything except meet certain safety requirements. Beyond that NASA cannot tell them what to do. And if there was a cost overrun at a commercial firm it would result in 1. bailout, 2 program cancellation, 3 bankrupt. I would remind everyone of Sea Launch.....
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Offline Cog_in_the_machine

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So define for me how this private/public partnership is going to work?  What role will NASA end up playing?  What requirements will be levied on them?  I could go on.

They'll serve a regulatory function for the companies and still conduct science and exploration missions by purchasing their services to get to LEO. Least that's the goal.

But, I bet you can't answer any of that.  No worries, no one else can either because it is still being defined.  Therefore no one can say what the costs around it will be. 

I can't tell you what will happen for the simple reason that I can't see in the future. All we're doing is speculating at the moment.
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Offline kraisee

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How would a "commercial" cost overrun be different than a "government" one?

The only real difference is in the way it is "sold" to the Congress and to the Tax-Payers.

Some companies get it with blessings.   Others get complained at for the same thing.

Unsurprisingly, the blessing/blame thing is typically based on the agenda of the person doing the talking.

Ross.
"The meek shall inherit the Earth -- the rest of us will go to the stars"
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Offline FinalFrontier

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The added 62% is for added missions or tests that aren't there right now, right? How is that a cost overrun?

Incorrect.

That is an increase to cover the existing contract requirements for 12 deliveries to ISS using Space-X and 8 missions using Orbital.

The extra stuff is covered on a different budget line item.

Ross.
Exactly :D
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Offline Namechange User

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So define for me how this private/public partnership is going to work?  What role will NASA end up playing?  What requirements will be levied on them?  I could go on.

They'll serve a regulatory function for the companies and still conduct science and exploration missions by purchasing their services to get to LEO. Least that's the goal.

But, I bet you can't answer any of that.  No worries, no one else can either because it is still being defined.  Therefore no one can say what the costs around it will be. 

I can't tell you what will happen for the simple reason that I can't see in the future. All we're doing is speculating at the moment.

Ohhh.  So NASA is going to become the FAA of space and "regulate" all the companies going out and doing spaceflight.  I see now. 

Perhaps you are speculating.  I'm not.  I'm going off of first hand knowledge. 
« Last Edit: 03/10/2010 05:11 pm by OV-106 »
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Offline FinalFrontier

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How would a "commercial" cost overrun be different than a "government" one?

The only real difference is in the way it is "sold" to the Congress and to the Tax-Payers.

Some companies get it with blessings.   Others get complained at for the same thing.

Unsurprisingly, the blessing/blame thing is typically based on the agenda of the person doing the talking.

Ross.
If fy 2011 passed what do you think would happen the first time there is an overun, be it under commercial or the NASA STP (space tech program i.e. the big r&d game changing tech thingy).
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Offline FinalFrontier

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So define for me how this private/public partnership is going to work?  What role will NASA end up playing?  What requirements will be levied on them?  I could go on.

They'll serve a regulatory function for the companies and still conduct science and exploration missions by purchasing their services to get to LEO. Least that's the goal.

But, I bet you can't answer any of that.  No worries, no one else can either because it is still being defined.  Therefore no one can say what the costs around it will be. 

I can't tell you what will happen for the simple reason that I can't see in the future. All we're doing is speculating at the moment.

Ohhh.  So NASA is going to become the FAA of space and "regulate" all the companies going out and doing spaceflight.  I see now. 

Perhaps you are speculating.  I'm not.  I'm going off of first hand knowledge. 

LOL
3-30-2017: The start of a great future
"Live Long and Prosper"

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