Poll

Will a formal decision be announced to place a crew on the first flight of Orion/SLS?

Yes -- and the flight will be circumlunar (if not more ambitious)
13 (21%)
Yes -- but the flight will be less ambitious than circumlunar
9 (14.5%)
No
40 (64.5%)

Total Members Voted: 62

Voting closed: 04/13/2017 11:09 am


Author Topic: Will NASA plan to put a crew on EM-1?  (Read 6063 times)

Offline Proponent

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 7277
  • Liked: 2782
  • Likes Given: 1462
Will NASA plan to put a crew on EM-1?
« on: 04/06/2017 11:09 am »
Please note that the question is whether it will become policy to place a crew on EM-1, not whether such a flight will actually occur.  Should a decision to crew EM-1 be announced and later rescinded, it will nevertheless count as a decision to crew.  Similarly, should a decision to crew later be changed to a decision to crew with either a more ambitious or less ambitious trajectory, it will count as originally announced.

The poll will close on the announcement of a decision one way or the other, should such announcement occur before the poll's expiry.

Online FutureSpaceTourist

  • Global Moderator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 48138
  • UK
    • Plan 28
  • Liked: 81620
  • Likes Given: 36928
Re: Will NASA plan to put a crew on EM-1?
« Reply #1 on: 04/06/2017 01:30 pm »
I voted no on the basis that I don't see how they'll justify, from a safety pov, putting a crew on an unflown LV when they don't have to.

Offline AncientU

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 6257
  • Liked: 4164
  • Likes Given: 6078
Re: Will NASA plan to put a crew on EM-1?
« Reply #2 on: 04/06/2017 10:42 pm »
I voted no because I don't think SLS will ever fly with crew.
"If we shared everything [we are working on] people would think we are insane!"
-- SpaceX friend of mlindner

Offline mme

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 1510
  • Santa Barbara, CA, USA, Earth, Solar System, Milky Way Galaxy, Virgo Supercluster
  • Liked: 2034
  • Likes Given: 5381
Re: Will NASA plan to put a crew on EM-1?
« Reply #3 on: 04/06/2017 10:50 pm »
I voted yes because I think someone [1] will decide to put it in the plan because it sounds impressive [2] but I'm more skeptical about it actually happening [3].

[1] I'm not being coy about who, there are multiple players that could decide it's the appropriate bold move to make a statement about American HSF and the road to BEO.
[2] I'm not judging the actual impressiveness one way or another.
[3] In the end I'm not sure it will fit in with with all the moving pieces of the evolving plan.
Space is not Highlander.  There can, and will, be more than one.

Offline savuporo

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 5152
  • Liked: 1002
  • Likes Given: 342
Re: Will NASA plan to put a crew on EM-1?
« Reply #4 on: 04/07/2017 02:25 am »
I voted no because I don't think SLS will ever fly with crew.

ftfy
Orion - the first and only manned not-too-deep-space craft

Offline guckyfan

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 7438
  • Germany
  • Liked: 2332
  • Likes Given: 2891
Re: Will NASA plan to put a crew on EM-1?
« Reply #5 on: 04/07/2017 10:24 am »
I voted no, expressing a hope. If they do go forward with that plan they lose a lot of credibility with me on crew safety.

Offline Proponent

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 7277
  • Liked: 2782
  • Likes Given: 1462
Re: Will NASA plan to put a crew on EM-1?
« Reply #6 on: 04/08/2017 03:31 pm »
I'm going for "Yes - circumlunar."  If NASA wants the relatively large budget that the president has offered (a cut of only about 5%, as opposed to much larger cuts for most non-defense discretionary spending), it needs to provide something of political value, and a flight around the moon before the next election could be just the thing.  Safety concerns will be addressed (inadequately, though perhaps accurately, in my view) with "Well, it's safer than STS-1."

Whether the mission actually flies or flies by 2020 is another question, but in the meantime NASA has much to gain by playing the game.
« Last Edit: 04/08/2017 03:33 pm by Proponent »

Online FutureSpaceTourist

  • Global Moderator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 48138
  • UK
    • Plan 28
  • Liked: 81620
  • Likes Given: 36928
Re: Will NASA plan to put a crew on EM-1?
« Reply #7 on: 04/08/2017 05:52 pm »
The thing about STS-1 was that there was no way to do the mission without crew, so it's not a like-for-like comparison.

I do get the arguments about perceived political value and budget concerns, but I expect the detailed assessments to be based on more engineering and proper safety risk analysis. I don't see things being glossed over in this post Challanger and Columbia world.

So if they do come out with a yes recommendation then I must be too naive!
« Last Edit: 04/08/2017 05:52 pm by FutureSpaceTourist »

Offline Proponent

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 7277
  • Liked: 2782
  • Likes Given: 1462
Re: Will NASA plan to put a crew on EM-1?
« Reply #8 on: 04/10/2017 09:55 am »
I agree that STS-1 is not a good reason to put a crew on EM-1.  But no less than Gen. Stafford has already bought into the logic, and I imagine that will be good enough for many.

Offline Proponent

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 7277
  • Liked: 2782
  • Likes Given: 1462
Re: Will NASA plan to put a crew on EM-1?
« Reply #9 on: 04/20/2017 08:12 pm »
Marcia Smith reports that NASA's feasibility study of crewing EM-1 has been completed.

Offline Star One

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 13996
  • UK
  • Liked: 3974
  • Likes Given: 220
Re: Will NASA plan to put a crew on EM-1?
« Reply #10 on: 04/20/2017 08:16 pm »
Marcia Smith reports that NASA's feasibility study of crewing EM-1 has been completed.

Thanks for that. The budget news is mildly depressing but OT for this thread.

Offline Patchouli

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 4490
  • Liked: 253
  • Likes Given: 457
Re: Will NASA plan to put a crew on EM-1?
« Reply #11 on: 04/30/2017 04:17 pm »
I say no as both Orion and SLS should be tested before putting a crew on them beyond LEO and rushing a crewed flight may actually delay the program.

An all up uncrewed flight would answer more questions which would actually help the timeline.

For example Apollo 6 exposed a lot of serious problems before the first crewed flight of the Saturn V.
« Last Edit: 04/30/2017 04:28 pm by Patchouli »

Offline Proponent

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 7277
  • Liked: 2782
  • Likes Given: 1462
Re: Will NASA plan to put a crew on EM-1?
« Reply #12 on: 05/12/2017 07:24 pm »
The wisdom of crowds wins again!

I'm happy to have been wrong.

Tags:
 

Advertisement NovaTech
Advertisement Northrop Grumman
Advertisement
Advertisement Margaritaville Beach Resort South Padre Island
Advertisement Brady Kenniston
Advertisement NextSpaceflight
Advertisement Nathan Barker Photography
0